NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1230 PM Update...

Made slight changes to update temperatures and dew points with the latest observations. Otherwise lake effects showers continue over the northern portion of central NY. Remaining forecast is on track at this time.

930 PM Update...

With the evening updates, adjusted the coverage of showers/QPF with the latest RGEM model guidance. This is typically favored with lake effect. Temperatures did increase a bit with the breaks in the clouds behind the cold front. Still, a stiff cold airmass advecting in temperatures should still fall into the 40's overnight.

245 PM Update...

A broad upper low is centered near Georgian Bay this afternoon. Southerly flow ahead of the low is transporting a narrow band of moisture up ahead of a cold front at the surface, which has pushed into the Catskills and Poconos this afternoon. Widespread showers continue behind the front, but the back edge of precipitation and leading edge of some breaks in the cloud cover has moved more or less up to the I-81 corridor. This is coincident with a sharp dry slot aloft.

However, wrap-around moisture is evident on water vapor imagery, moving into western NY. With cooler air aloft closer to the closed low, scattered convective showers and isolated thunderstorms have been developing across western NY and NW PA.
A few of these showers are currently moving into the Finger Lakes Region, and will spread towards the I-81 corridor before dark. The back edge of the steadier rainfall and thicker cloud cover will push east of the Catskills and Poconos a little before sunset.

Expect the wrap-around showers to diminish pretty quickly after dark. However, a few bands of lake effect rain showers and clouds will begin to take shape closer to midnight tonight, primarily affecting areas near and north of the NYS Thruway as low level winds shift to around 280-290 degrees.

Despite the cooler temps and recent rainfall, west to northwest winds will remain just steady enough tonight to keep radiation fog from developing.

Heading into Sunday morning, the upper low be to our north over the Ottawa Valley, and will weaken as it picks up speed and moves north of the lower Saint Lawrence valley by evening. Cyclonic flow will continue to favor some wrap-around, lake-enhanced showers through early Sunday afternoon, though these will shift into northern Oneida County through the day.

Mostly sunny skies will prevail except downwind of Lake Ontario, but temperatures will remain below normal, with highs in the upper-50s to lower-60s area wide, except middle to upper-60s in NEPA.

The pressure gradient remains tight enough for light but steady winds through Sunday night, but despite this, minimum temperatures look to cool well into the middle to upper-40s across the region, with lower-40s possible in some sheltered valleys in the Poconos and Catskills.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
150 PM Update...

The short term is looking quiet overall with a shortwave rotating around the base of a long wave trough situated over the northeast on Monday. There will be just enough moisture available to generate a few showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Shear is expected to be 40 to 50 knots with the shortwave passage though instability and mid level lapse rates are weak. Still given the shear there is the chance for a stronger thunderstorm or two somewhere over the Finger Lakes and Central NY late in the day Monday.

Once the shortwave is through Monday night, upper level ridging builds in with temperatures warming Tuesday and Wednesday with dry air in place.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
150 PM Update...

The upper level ridging looks to strengthen in the long range with the warm and dry conditions continuing. 12Z models have trended towards showing a stronger tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico which if it does develop, then it can strengthen the upper level ridging next week. Given the uncertainly there were now adjustments to the temperatures for later in the week but with the ridging in place, chances of precipitation were removed.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditons are expected throughout the entire period at ELM/BGM/AVP. Ceilings have been bouncing between MVFR and VFR at ITH, therefore included a tempo to cover this. Otherwise SYR and RME will be impacted by lake effect rain showers tonight.
The shift to WSW winds will bring a broken band of rain showers moving across SYR and RME starting after 06z until around sunrise. Restrictions are expected to bounce in and out of MVFR as showers and lower clouds stream over the terminals. VFR conditions expected starting in the morning through the rest of the TAF period with gusty afternoon winds between 20-25kts.

Outlook

Sunday Night...Mainly VFR.

Monday...A few showers possible Monday across Central NY with minor restrictions possible.

Tuesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.