Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mattydale, NY
March 29, 2024 11:20 AM EDT (15:20 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:48 AM Sunset 7:29 PM Moonrise 11:23 PM Moonset 7:34 AM |
LOZ044 Expires:202403292115;;819424 Fzus51 Kbuf 291435 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1035 am edt Fri mar 29 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-292115- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1035 am edt Fri mar 29 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning - .
Rest of today - Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight - West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Saturday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday night - North winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 41 degrees.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1035 am edt Fri mar 29 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-292115- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1035 am edt Fri mar 29 2024
the water temperature off rochester is 41 degrees.
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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 291338 AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 938 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
Quiet weather will persist through the start of the weekend though a dusting of lake effect snow will be possible in portions of Central New York tonight. Scattered rain showers move into the region late Saturday but will not last long as Sunday will be dry. Temperatures will be cool today but will be slightly warmer this weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
930 AM Update...
Minor changes made at this time. Temperatures and dew points were both running a little bit ahead of what was in the hourly forecast, so did blend in the latest obs and the NBM 90th percentile into the forecast through the early afternoon to give them a little bit of a bump. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
615 AM Update...
The hourly temps were touched up based on the current conditions. A few locations did not cool down as much as expected once the clouds cleared out and have managed to hang onto the 30s. Otherwise, it will be cool start to the day as many others fell into the 20s. Winds were bumped up some more for this afternoon and tonight, mainly to be closer to a couple neighboring offices. Higher elevations in the Catskills will likely see the highest gusts with peak gusts exceeding 30 mph. The rest of the forecast was doing well.
350 AM Update...
High pressure will keep conditions quiet today. Skies will continue to clear from west to east this morning, though northwesterly flow will support some lake clouds late this morning and through the overnight hours. Temperatures today will max out in the 40s though some valley locations may just reach the low 50s today. Model soundings are fairly dry and will favor some mixing today. Because of this, dewpoints were lowered below most guidance for the afternoon hours. Also, a fairly strong low-level jet develops over the Northeast today. Winds increase throughout the day with peak gusts between 20 and 30 mph.
Tonight will be blustery as winds will continue to be gusty.
Temperatures will fall into the mid 20s to low 30s though wind chills will be in the teens to low 20s by Saturday morning. Lake Ontario temperature and 850mb temperature differences will be favorable for lake effect precipitation tonight, especially with northwest flow still present. The CMC and HRRR have picked up on this, so slight chance PoPs were included for portions of CNY. Some may wake up to a dusting of snow by Saturday morning. Patchy freezing drizzle is also possible, though no significant ice accumulation is expected.
The lake effect snow showers will be short-lived and should dissipate by sunrise on Saturday. Despite a cool start, temperatures will climb into the upper 40s to mid 50s. While winds will still be gusty in the morning, they do gradually become calmer throughout the day. Scattered rain showers will begin to move in from the west late tomorrow as a weak system will clip the region while it passes through Pennsylvania.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
410 AM update...
A quick moving shortwave is passing through northern NY and St.
Lawrence River Valley Saturday night bringing a chances of low elevation rain showers and higher elevation snow showers. Given that temperatures at higher elevations will still be around freezing with soil temperatures above freezing and light QPF with this shortwave, snow accumulations will be a few tenths of an inch at most.
Sunday will have weak upper level ridging building in as a long wave trough sets up over the western US. Temperatures recover back to seasonal averages. Sunday night precipitation chances increase once again as a baroclinic zone sets up extending from the Midwest into the Mid Atlantic. There is some uncertainty to how far north this baroclinic zone gets so decided to keep chances of precipitation north all the way to the thruway for now but the best chances remains in the Southern Tier and south.
The baroclinic zone will persist into Monday with chances of precipitation persisting mainly south. Ensembles overnight have trended a little farther south with the mean QPF on Monday so chances of precipitation were lowered north of the Southern Tier. Temperatures were also lowered a little bit with colder air spilling in from the north with that baroclinic zone shifting south.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
410 AM update...
The long term is looking active with a deep trough in the west setting up SW flow along with strong Greenland blocking. A surface low will likely develop in the central US and move east into the Great Lakes region and stall with a secondary coastal low forming mid week. Chances of precipitation were increased Tuesday through Friday as this will be a long duration event.
Overnight models and ensembles had a deeper trough with lower 500 mb heights as it slowly traverses through the northeast.
Also the 850 mb temperatures ahead of the low Tuesday into Wednesday were a little colder than previous runs. Blended in about 20% NBM 10th percentile for temperatures and dew points for Wednesday into Thursday night to get a little colder temperatures especially at higher elevations. With the colder temperatures, snow probabilities were raised where wetbulbs were below 33 degrees which increased the coverage of snow in the weather grids. Snow ratios will likely be pretty low like 6:1 to 8:1 based off of some forecast soundings and with some buds out on trees already there is concern of snow load on branches if there ends up being more snow with this system. QPF with this system has increased a little with much of the area seeing at least an inch with isolated 2 inch amounts at higher elevations.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR is expected throughout this TAF period. Lake clouds develop later today over Central NY and will remain present through the overnight hours. These mid-level clouds would mainly be over ITH, SYR, and BGM. There is some guidance that hints at MVFR ceilings over the region with these lake clouds, but confidence was too low to include at any particular site. Light lake-effect snow is also possible in portions of Central NY. SYR would have the best chance of seeing some snow flakes, but again, confidence was too low to include. Northwest to westerly winds will increase this afternoon with sustained speed around 15 kts and peak gusts of 25 kts at most terminals. Winds will gradually become calmer after 09z Saturday but will still be gusty.
Outlook...
Saturday morning...VFR (High confidence)
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night...Mainly VFR but restrictions from rain showers possibly changing to snow showers Saturday overnight and Sunday morning. (Moderate confidence)
Sunday...Mainly VFR; low chance for rain showers. (Moderate confidence)
Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; chance of showers.
(Moderate confidence)
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 938 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
Quiet weather will persist through the start of the weekend though a dusting of lake effect snow will be possible in portions of Central New York tonight. Scattered rain showers move into the region late Saturday but will not last long as Sunday will be dry. Temperatures will be cool today but will be slightly warmer this weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
930 AM Update...
Minor changes made at this time. Temperatures and dew points were both running a little bit ahead of what was in the hourly forecast, so did blend in the latest obs and the NBM 90th percentile into the forecast through the early afternoon to give them a little bit of a bump. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
615 AM Update...
The hourly temps were touched up based on the current conditions. A few locations did not cool down as much as expected once the clouds cleared out and have managed to hang onto the 30s. Otherwise, it will be cool start to the day as many others fell into the 20s. Winds were bumped up some more for this afternoon and tonight, mainly to be closer to a couple neighboring offices. Higher elevations in the Catskills will likely see the highest gusts with peak gusts exceeding 30 mph. The rest of the forecast was doing well.
350 AM Update...
High pressure will keep conditions quiet today. Skies will continue to clear from west to east this morning, though northwesterly flow will support some lake clouds late this morning and through the overnight hours. Temperatures today will max out in the 40s though some valley locations may just reach the low 50s today. Model soundings are fairly dry and will favor some mixing today. Because of this, dewpoints were lowered below most guidance for the afternoon hours. Also, a fairly strong low-level jet develops over the Northeast today. Winds increase throughout the day with peak gusts between 20 and 30 mph.
Tonight will be blustery as winds will continue to be gusty.
Temperatures will fall into the mid 20s to low 30s though wind chills will be in the teens to low 20s by Saturday morning. Lake Ontario temperature and 850mb temperature differences will be favorable for lake effect precipitation tonight, especially with northwest flow still present. The CMC and HRRR have picked up on this, so slight chance PoPs were included for portions of CNY. Some may wake up to a dusting of snow by Saturday morning. Patchy freezing drizzle is also possible, though no significant ice accumulation is expected.
The lake effect snow showers will be short-lived and should dissipate by sunrise on Saturday. Despite a cool start, temperatures will climb into the upper 40s to mid 50s. While winds will still be gusty in the morning, they do gradually become calmer throughout the day. Scattered rain showers will begin to move in from the west late tomorrow as a weak system will clip the region while it passes through Pennsylvania.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
410 AM update...
A quick moving shortwave is passing through northern NY and St.
Lawrence River Valley Saturday night bringing a chances of low elevation rain showers and higher elevation snow showers. Given that temperatures at higher elevations will still be around freezing with soil temperatures above freezing and light QPF with this shortwave, snow accumulations will be a few tenths of an inch at most.
Sunday will have weak upper level ridging building in as a long wave trough sets up over the western US. Temperatures recover back to seasonal averages. Sunday night precipitation chances increase once again as a baroclinic zone sets up extending from the Midwest into the Mid Atlantic. There is some uncertainty to how far north this baroclinic zone gets so decided to keep chances of precipitation north all the way to the thruway for now but the best chances remains in the Southern Tier and south.
The baroclinic zone will persist into Monday with chances of precipitation persisting mainly south. Ensembles overnight have trended a little farther south with the mean QPF on Monday so chances of precipitation were lowered north of the Southern Tier. Temperatures were also lowered a little bit with colder air spilling in from the north with that baroclinic zone shifting south.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
410 AM update...
The long term is looking active with a deep trough in the west setting up SW flow along with strong Greenland blocking. A surface low will likely develop in the central US and move east into the Great Lakes region and stall with a secondary coastal low forming mid week. Chances of precipitation were increased Tuesday through Friday as this will be a long duration event.
Overnight models and ensembles had a deeper trough with lower 500 mb heights as it slowly traverses through the northeast.
Also the 850 mb temperatures ahead of the low Tuesday into Wednesday were a little colder than previous runs. Blended in about 20% NBM 10th percentile for temperatures and dew points for Wednesday into Thursday night to get a little colder temperatures especially at higher elevations. With the colder temperatures, snow probabilities were raised where wetbulbs were below 33 degrees which increased the coverage of snow in the weather grids. Snow ratios will likely be pretty low like 6:1 to 8:1 based off of some forecast soundings and with some buds out on trees already there is concern of snow load on branches if there ends up being more snow with this system. QPF with this system has increased a little with much of the area seeing at least an inch with isolated 2 inch amounts at higher elevations.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR is expected throughout this TAF period. Lake clouds develop later today over Central NY and will remain present through the overnight hours. These mid-level clouds would mainly be over ITH, SYR, and BGM. There is some guidance that hints at MVFR ceilings over the region with these lake clouds, but confidence was too low to include at any particular site. Light lake-effect snow is also possible in portions of Central NY. SYR would have the best chance of seeing some snow flakes, but again, confidence was too low to include. Northwest to westerly winds will increase this afternoon with sustained speed around 15 kts and peak gusts of 25 kts at most terminals. Winds will gradually become calmer after 09z Saturday but will still be gusty.
Outlook...
Saturday morning...VFR (High confidence)
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night...Mainly VFR but restrictions from rain showers possibly changing to snow showers Saturday overnight and Sunday morning. (Moderate confidence)
Sunday...Mainly VFR; low chance for rain showers. (Moderate confidence)
Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; chance of showers.
(Moderate confidence)
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 31 mi | 50 min | NNW 7G | 37°F | 29.88 | 26°F | ||
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 77 mi | 80 min | NNW 14G | 37°F | 29.97 | |||
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 78 mi | 50 min | 37°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KSYR SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL,NY | 3 sm | 26 min | NNW 16G20 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 43°F | 21°F | 42% | 29.87 | |
KFZY OSWEGO COUNTY,NY | 21 sm | 26 min | NW 13 | 10 sm | Overcast | 39°F | 25°F | 56% | 29.89 |
Montague, NY,
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