Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mattydale, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

645 AM Update

Starting off colder this morning, with temperatures in the upper 20s to mid-30s in the valleys and around 40 on the hilltops.
Otherwise, skies are mostly sunny and no significant changes were needed to the forecast at this time.

245 AM Update

Main concern in this period will be the potential for scattered to numerous strong or severe thunderstorms arriving Tuesday afternoon/evening. See below for more details.

Today's weather will feature high pressure, sunny skies, light winds and warm temperatures. A 1026mb high will be directly overhead which will bring light west-southwest winds less than 10 mph into this afternoon. There could be a few high level cirrus clouds, otherwise skies will be clear. Looks for high temperatures between 70-75 degrees in most locations.

The surface high slides off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, with south-southeast winds gradually increasing between 5 to 15 mph.
Skies should remain clear to mostly clear and overnight lows will be milder in the mid-40s to lower 50s.

Tuesday morning starts off quiet, as our are will be firmly in the open warm sector of a 996mb surface low well off to the north in South-central Quebec. South winds become breezy at times by afternoon, 10-20 mph. Temperatures will surge into the upper 70s and lower 80s by afternoon. Increasing low level moisture advects in from the west with sfc Tds rising into the mid-50s to low 60s along and west of I-81 late in the day. This combination will support increasing instability over the region; again especially west of I-81, where MLCAPE could reach 500-1200 J/Kg by early evening
Strong, deep shear will be present
likely between 40-50 kts in the 0-6km layer. There will also be sufficient low level shear upwards of 30kts in the 0-1km layer noted on 00z HRRR forecast soundings for parts of the Finger Lakes, Syracuse area and NW Oneida County. SPC is maintaining the Enhanced Risk northwest of a Elmira--Cortland--Rome Line, with the main threat being strong damaging winds from any storms that can form into segments. Uncertainty remains in the timing, amount of instability and exact wind shear profiles for this event. CAMs are struggling to come into agreement on convective initiation timing and storm modes. If the ingredients can come together then severe storms, with even some isolated tornadoes will be possible. The main parameter to watch will be how fast and efficiently surface or low level moisture can increase...will surface dew points rise quickly into the lower 60s Tuesday afternoon. This will have a big impact on the amount of CAPE/Instability present as well as LCL levels. The short term guidance is starting to come into better agreement that the pre- frontal trough will move through west-central NY between about 2-8 PM Tuesday; and this will be when the greatest potential for storms will be. Then, the actual cold front comes through toward midnight, with perhaps a last line of gusty storms along it. Overall, confidence is still only moderate as far as how widespread any severe convection will ultimately be. Stay tuned for updates as confidence increases on how this event will unfold.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
215 AM Update...

For the first few hours of Tuesday night, strong to severe storms are expected to be on-going with the passage of a cold front. Storms are expected to sweep from the northwest to southeast, and are currently expected to end by 03Z for the majority of solutions. The only outlier is the NAM currently, with having storms initiate around 00/01Z, and last through 05/06Z. All other solutions favor storm initiation between 18Z to 22Z, which will be discussed further in the Near Term section of this discussion. Possible threats include damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.

After the passage of the aforementioned cold front, cooler air and high pressure sweep in Wednesday. Temperatures drop from the upper 70s/low 80s Tuesday to mid 50s to mid 60s for Wednesday.
High pressure for Wednesday will result in precipitation-free conditions.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
215 AM Update...

The next system moves through Thursday and Friday, bringing rain showers and afternoon thunderstorms through the end of the work week. Temperatures increase back to above average in the upper 60s to low 70s. Upper level troughing begins to develop Friday night, and a shortwave following the aforementioned system will bring some more rain showers Saturday. High pressure sneaks its way back Sunday to end the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
645 AM Update

VFR conditions will prevail areawide over the next 24 hours.
There will be mainly clear skies, with just a few high cirrus clouds from time to time possible.

Light west-southwest or variable winds less than 10 kts are expected through the TAF period. Low Level Wind Shear is also expected at ELM, ITH, SYR, RME and AVP after 06-09z Tuesday morning; with SW winds around 35 kts at 2k ft AGL.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Potential for afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain showers, mainly during the afternoon and through the evening.

Friday...Rain showers likely and a slight chance for thunderstorms with associated restrictions at times.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.