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LOZ044 Expires:202312092215;;173939 Fzus51 Kbuf 091548 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1048 am est Sat dec 9 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-092215- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1048 am est Sat dec 9 2023
This afternoon..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 8 to 11 feet building to 10 to 13 feet, then subsiding to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 092343 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 643 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
Much warmer temperatures are expected across the region into Sunday. Dry weather is expected into this evening before rain returns to the region late tonight. Sunday and Sunday night will see a strong storm bring heavy rain. Rain transitions to snow Sunday night, ending Monday as a deepening low pressure moves up the east coast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
640 PM Update...

No major changes for the near-term update. Rain will push in from the west through the night tonight, and cover the forecast area by morning. Near-term forecast remains on track through Sunday night.

330 PM Update

Quiet weather continues this evening with mild temperatures and increasing clouds. Clouds continue to overspread the area into the overnight hours as southerly winds also increase out ahead of the incoming storm system. Expect south winds 15 to 30 mph with locally higher gusts during the predawn hours of Sunday; especially over the hilltops. These clouds and southerly winds will keep it warm tonight, with lows in the 40s to near 50 for most of the area.

Our attention then turns to a significant storm system that will bring a multitude of impacts to the area. Rain develops and overspreads the entire forecast area Sunday morning. The rain could be heavy at times, and a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out over NE PA and the Catskills. The heaviest rainfall rates are again expected from about Binghamton south and east in to NE PA/Catskills. The latest guidance has trended eastward with the higher rainfall and QPF amounts with this system, and its even possible the Finger Lakes see a break from the steady rain Sunday afternoon and early evening as the initial area of rain drifts east. Rainfall totals through about 7 PM Sunday look to range from only a quarter inch over the Finger Lakes, with around 1 inch over NE PA and the Catskills. These higher end totals may begin to cause some minor, localized hydro issue (such as ponding of water in low lying areas, and increased runoff) as we head into the evening hours. Therefore, the flood watch remains in effect for east-central NY down across most of NE PA (except Bradford county)...until 1 PM Monday. Several of the headwater and mainstem river points are forecast to reach action stage, with the West Branch Delaware at Walton still forecast to reach minor flood stage. If rainfall amounts end up higher than currently forecast additional locations could have more issues...so definitely something to monitor closely.

Heading into Sunday evening, the cold front is now progged to move in faster, with winds shifting to the northwest. The changeover from rain to wet snow has trended slightly faster with this update. It is now looking to changeover between about 8 to 11 PM west of I-81...higher elevations first. Then the changeover is forecast to occur between 9pm to 12am east of I-81...again higher elevations first. The last places to changeover, not until the predawn hours will be the Wyoming Valley, Southern Sullivan county and along the Delaware river.

The latest guidance has shifted a bit east with the higher snowfall potential. The steadiest snow looks to be along and east of I-81 during the overnight hours Sunday through daybreak Monday, or mid/late morning over the Catskills as a 1000mb surface low near NYC tracks northeast to near Boston and deepens to around 995mb. Went below the NBM guidance for temperatures as strong cold air advection from the west (-7C at 850mb) and the strengthening low should allow for more efficient cooling.
Therefore, expecting temperatures to fall into the low to mid-30s by midnight, then upper 20s to lower 30s before daybreak. The initial heavy wet snow, with low SLRs of 4-8:1 will quickly increase, to 8-12:1 before daybreak, with the snow becoming more powdery and much more efficiently accumulating.
SLRs remain high between 10-15:1 during the day on Monday with colder air aloft moving in. Again, went below NBM for temperatures on Monday, as I think we'll struggle to get above freezing in most locations, then temperatures will begin to fall by late afternoon.

Based on both the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance, the highest potential to see 4-8"+ of wet snowfall will be from Oneida county south into Madison, Otsego, Delaware and Chenango county. The NBM and WPC ensembles are showing greater than 50% chance for exceeding warning criteria in these areas...especially over the higher elevations. Therefore, decided to issue a Winter Storm Watch for these zones...starting Sunday evening through Monday afternoon...except through Monday evening for Madison and Oneida counties, where some lake effect snow bands and blowing snow will linger longer. The exact track and strength of the coastal low remain uncertain at this time, and that will have large implications on how much snowfall and where. These above counties are where the confidence was highest for an impactful snowfall event. Will be closely monitoring the latest trends in the guidance tonight to see if any additional winter headlines may be needed.

On Monday, the coastal low will be rapidly deepening across eastern New England...with much colder air aloft and at the surface advecting into our region on the back side of the low, under the mid/upper level trough. The steady snow shield looks to lift north and east out of the Catskills and Mohawk Valley by mid to late morning, but bands of lake effect snow showers will develop behind this on a 300-310 degree flow off of Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes. The other story on Monday will be strong, gusty northwest winds up to 40 mph. For the higher elevations these winds, combined with fresh snow and temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s will likely produce areas of blowing and drifting snow. Otherwise, for the southern tier of NY and northeast PA it should be mainly dry by late Monday morning and afternoon with just isolated snow showers around. It will still be windy and cold areawide, with wind chills in the upper 10s to 20s during the day.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
330 PM FORECAST...

Lake effect snow showers are expected to continue across areas north of the Southern Tier Monday night.
High pressure centered south of the region will continue the westerly flow across Lake Erie and Ontario as the main storm system lifts to the NE. 850mb temps between -11 to -12C will provide enough of a air/water temp difference to generate snow showers from the Finger Lakes to Oneida county. A weak, diffuse band of snow may set up across northern Onondaga, Madison and Oneida county, dropping an additional 1-3 in of snow. Less than an inch of snow is expected across the Finger Lakes into the Northern Catskills. As the night progresses, winds will slowly shift from westerly to southwesterly as the ridge slides eastward. This will push snow chances north into northern Oneida by the late overnight hours, and completely north of the area by mid- morning Tuesday.

High pressure east of the area will bring WAA on Tuesday, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 30s to low 40s. This warmth will be short lived as a weak trough will dig into the area Tuesday night. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 20s but highs on Wednesday will only climb into the low to mid 30s. The trough will be somewhat moisture starved but NW flow behind the initial front will tap into lake moisture, and low level lapse rates are steep enough to allow for a chance for some isolated squally snow showers possible across areas north of the Southern Tier Wednesday morning into the afternoon.

Cold air will settle in Wednesday night, with lows falling into the upper teens to mid 20s. High pressure sliding in from the west will put an end to the snow showers as the night progresses, with northern Oneida hanging on to snow chances the longest.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
330 PM FORECAST...

A broad ridging pattern will persist through the period with dry conditions expected. Temperatures will warm under the ridge as a warm airmass is advected in from the west. Seasonable temperatures Thursday will reach the mid to upper 40s by Friday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
1250 PM Update...

VFR conditions are expected across all terminals this afternoon and evening.

A storm system will move into the region during the overnight hours, dropping conditions at all terminals to MVFR starting around 10Z. AVP/BGM/ITH/RME will have the best chance to see IFR and lower conditions given the placement of the heaviest rain near AVP/RME, as well as upslope southerly flow at BGM/ITH. SYR could see visibility dip down to IFR for a few hours in the late morning but confidence in showers heavy enough to produce this is too low to include in the TAFs. ELM should remain MVFR to Fuel Alt given the wind regime here usually keeps ceilings around FL015. A few showers may be able to drop visby to IFR for a period but confidence in this is not high.

A strong low level jet tonight will bring 35-45kts of LLWS up to FL020 across the region starting in the mid to late evening and lasting until sunrise.

Outlook...

Sunday night...IFR or lower. Rain changing to snow. Strong gusty winds.

Monday...Restrictions likely with lingering snow showers and strong gusty NW winds.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR-MVFR depending on lake effect showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for NYZ009-036-037.
Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for NYZ045-046-056-057-062.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for NYZ045-046-057.

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