Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mattydale, NY
May 13, 2024 11:56 PM EDT (03:56 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:40 AM Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 9:19 AM Moonset 12:26 AM |
LOZ044 Expires:202405132115;;139944 Fzus51 Kbuf 131445 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1045 am edt Mon may 13 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-132115- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1045 am edt Mon may 13 2024
Rest of today - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late this morning, then a chance of showers this afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday - North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1045 am edt Mon may 13 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-132115- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1045 am edt Mon may 13 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.
LOZ005
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBGM 140121 AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 921 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
A few scattered showers will move across the region this evening, followed by the next round of rain and possibly weak thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Rain will linger into Wednesday before high pressure builds in Thursday and Friday with generally drier and warmer weather.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Any remaining showers should clear out by midnight along with any thunder chances. Lowered pops a bit with the late evening update. Previous discussion below.
Given recent trends, limited any thunder mention to isolated at best through the evening hours. One heavier batch of showers should translate from Syracuse to the Utica hours through about 8pm dropping a tenth to quarter inch of precipitation. Forecast discussion below largely on track.
253 PM update...
Main concerns in the near term are centered around the weak, scattered showers and storms possible later this afternoon and into the early evening hours, mainly over central NY...and the next round of showers and storms expected to develop Tuesday afternoon, again north of the NY/PA border. The Tuesday convection will linger into Tuesday night and spread south into PA.
Earlier today, a weak warm front lifted north/newd across the region this morning and brought a broken area of rain showers that are currently tapering off in the Catskills and into the southern Adirondacks. A secondary area of precipitation is breaking out over western NY and is currently pushing into the central Southern Tier of NY. The warm front to the north and east has left behind a slightly more unstable air mass with around 50-100 J/kg of ML CAPE, and with some steeper low level lapse rates starting to push in from the southwest, and a broad area of warm air advection amidst a passing weak upper s/w, the threat for a few weak thunderstorms exists into this evening.
Severe weather is not anticipated.
This weak upper level feature will roll to the east this evening and with the combination of the loss of instability after sunset, the threat for convection should diminish after 9 PM. The warm front to the north will remain situated north of the NY Thruway tonight, and keep all of the forecast area in a relatively mild air mass. Temperatures will only drop into the lower 50s for tonight, and there could be some clearing, but we will likely keep mostly a layer of mid and high clouds through the night.
The warm front to the north will transition to a cold front and drop southward on Tuesday morning slowly across the region.
There will likely be some showers develop along the Thruway late Tuesday morning and also an area of convection blossom over PA by the early afternoon as an upper wave over the TN valley lifts into the mid Atlantic region. The overall air mass will remain unstable through the rest of the day and into Tuesday night as the cold front stalls across the region and focuses scattered showers and storms throughout the area. The air mass is expected to be quite rich with a ribbon of PWs up to 1.3 inches along the front. The large-scale forcing for ascent should be rather weak, so hydro/flooding concerns should be limited. Rainfall amounts will range from 0.5 to 1 inch at the most from Tuesday through Tue night.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
330 PM Update...
Frontal system continues to push through the region on Wednesday setting off more rain showers with afternoon thunderstorms possible.
Model soundings show weak instability with this system, therefore not expecting many impacts with these storms. At the same time an upper level low slides eastwards supplying enough moisture to allow showers to continue into the evening and overnight period. Otherwise highs will range in the mid 60s to lower 70 during the day with lows falling into the upper 40s to mid 50s overnight. The upper level low drifts eastward/away from the area early Thursday morning, which will allow for most of the coverage of showers to diminish. However, some model guidance keeps this upper low close enough to have showers linger around a bit longer in the morning and afternoon hours. Highs on Thursday will range in the mid to upper 60s to mid 70s with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Brief upper level ridge builds in Thursday night into Friday with drier conditions expected overnight.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
330 PM Update...
Friday morning should remain relatively dry before another frontal system approaches the region in the afternoon. This sets off an initial round of showers that is expected to continue through Friday night becoming more organized in nature by Saturday morning. In general model guidance keeps showers in the forecast throughout most of the weekend with a ridge attempting to build in Sunday night. Models begin to diverge for the remaining period, therefore relied on NBM pops to account for these uncertainties.
Temperatures in the long term will range in the upper 60s to upper 70s during the day with lows falling in the 50s overnight.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
730 pm update...
Mostly VFR will continue through Tuesday.
An area of rain just moved through most of CNY with unrestricted rain until 01z at KRME. KSYR had MVFR vsbys with the rain so maybe it will happen at KRME.
More showers will move in Tuesday after 20z. Showers and possibly thunderstorms will be scattered so only included VCSH with no restrictions.
Winds will start out of the south at 4 to 8 kts this evening then become light and variable late tonight. Tuesday winds will be out of the south and southwest at 7 to 10 kts.
Low level wind shear is possible tonight at KRME. 2k ft winds are southwest at 30 kts with surface winds east at 6 kts.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Periods of rain and possible embedded thunderstorms look to bring widespread MVFR restrictions. Periodic IFR also possible at some sites. Moderate to high confidence
Thursday through Friday...Becoming VFR as a ridge of high pressure moves overhead. Moderate confidence.
Saturday...The next system looks to enter the region Fri night into Saturday with showers and storms and associated restrictions.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 921 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
A few scattered showers will move across the region this evening, followed by the next round of rain and possibly weak thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Rain will linger into Wednesday before high pressure builds in Thursday and Friday with generally drier and warmer weather.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Any remaining showers should clear out by midnight along with any thunder chances. Lowered pops a bit with the late evening update. Previous discussion below.
Given recent trends, limited any thunder mention to isolated at best through the evening hours. One heavier batch of showers should translate from Syracuse to the Utica hours through about 8pm dropping a tenth to quarter inch of precipitation. Forecast discussion below largely on track.
253 PM update...
Main concerns in the near term are centered around the weak, scattered showers and storms possible later this afternoon and into the early evening hours, mainly over central NY...and the next round of showers and storms expected to develop Tuesday afternoon, again north of the NY/PA border. The Tuesday convection will linger into Tuesday night and spread south into PA.
Earlier today, a weak warm front lifted north/newd across the region this morning and brought a broken area of rain showers that are currently tapering off in the Catskills and into the southern Adirondacks. A secondary area of precipitation is breaking out over western NY and is currently pushing into the central Southern Tier of NY. The warm front to the north and east has left behind a slightly more unstable air mass with around 50-100 J/kg of ML CAPE, and with some steeper low level lapse rates starting to push in from the southwest, and a broad area of warm air advection amidst a passing weak upper s/w, the threat for a few weak thunderstorms exists into this evening.
Severe weather is not anticipated.
This weak upper level feature will roll to the east this evening and with the combination of the loss of instability after sunset, the threat for convection should diminish after 9 PM. The warm front to the north will remain situated north of the NY Thruway tonight, and keep all of the forecast area in a relatively mild air mass. Temperatures will only drop into the lower 50s for tonight, and there could be some clearing, but we will likely keep mostly a layer of mid and high clouds through the night.
The warm front to the north will transition to a cold front and drop southward on Tuesday morning slowly across the region.
There will likely be some showers develop along the Thruway late Tuesday morning and also an area of convection blossom over PA by the early afternoon as an upper wave over the TN valley lifts into the mid Atlantic region. The overall air mass will remain unstable through the rest of the day and into Tuesday night as the cold front stalls across the region and focuses scattered showers and storms throughout the area. The air mass is expected to be quite rich with a ribbon of PWs up to 1.3 inches along the front. The large-scale forcing for ascent should be rather weak, so hydro/flooding concerns should be limited. Rainfall amounts will range from 0.5 to 1 inch at the most from Tuesday through Tue night.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
330 PM Update...
Frontal system continues to push through the region on Wednesday setting off more rain showers with afternoon thunderstorms possible.
Model soundings show weak instability with this system, therefore not expecting many impacts with these storms. At the same time an upper level low slides eastwards supplying enough moisture to allow showers to continue into the evening and overnight period. Otherwise highs will range in the mid 60s to lower 70 during the day with lows falling into the upper 40s to mid 50s overnight. The upper level low drifts eastward/away from the area early Thursday morning, which will allow for most of the coverage of showers to diminish. However, some model guidance keeps this upper low close enough to have showers linger around a bit longer in the morning and afternoon hours. Highs on Thursday will range in the mid to upper 60s to mid 70s with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Brief upper level ridge builds in Thursday night into Friday with drier conditions expected overnight.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
330 PM Update...
Friday morning should remain relatively dry before another frontal system approaches the region in the afternoon. This sets off an initial round of showers that is expected to continue through Friday night becoming more organized in nature by Saturday morning. In general model guidance keeps showers in the forecast throughout most of the weekend with a ridge attempting to build in Sunday night. Models begin to diverge for the remaining period, therefore relied on NBM pops to account for these uncertainties.
Temperatures in the long term will range in the upper 60s to upper 70s during the day with lows falling in the 50s overnight.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
730 pm update...
Mostly VFR will continue through Tuesday.
An area of rain just moved through most of CNY with unrestricted rain until 01z at KRME. KSYR had MVFR vsbys with the rain so maybe it will happen at KRME.
More showers will move in Tuesday after 20z. Showers and possibly thunderstorms will be scattered so only included VCSH with no restrictions.
Winds will start out of the south at 4 to 8 kts this evening then become light and variable late tonight. Tuesday winds will be out of the south and southwest at 7 to 10 kts.
Low level wind shear is possible tonight at KRME. 2k ft winds are southwest at 30 kts with surface winds east at 6 kts.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Periods of rain and possible embedded thunderstorms look to bring widespread MVFR restrictions. Periodic IFR also possible at some sites. Moderate to high confidence
Thursday through Friday...Becoming VFR as a ridge of high pressure moves overhead. Moderate confidence.
Saturday...The next system looks to enter the region Fri night into Saturday with showers and storms and associated restrictions.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 31 mi | 56 min | SSE 9.9G | 61°F | 29.80 | 55°F | ||
| 45215 | 34 mi | 60 min | 59°F | 51°F | 1 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSYR SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL,NY | 3 sm | 62 min | SE 06 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 61°F | 55°F | 82% | 29.87 | |
| KFZY OSWEGO COUNTY,NY | 21 sm | 62 min | SE 04 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 61°F | 55°F | 82% | 29.85 |
Montague, NY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE