Brighton, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brighton, NY

June 22, 2024 4:57 AM EDT (08:57 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:29 AM   Sunset 8:55 PM
Moonrise 9:11 PM   Moonset 4:30 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1041 Pm Edt Fri Jun 21 2024

Overnight - Light and variable winds. A chance of showers late. Waves 1 foot or less.

Saturday - Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.

Saturday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.

Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Sunday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then just a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.

Monday - West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.

Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.

Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 59 degrees, and the central lake ontario buoy water temperature is 66 degrees.

LOZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brighton, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 220812 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 412 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

SYNOPSIS
More comfortable conditions are on the horizon however, we'll have to endure a couple of more days of warm and humid weather. Unlike the days earlier this week with dangerously high heat indices, an oscillating frontal boundary will support enough cloud cover and thunderstorm activity to dampen the heat. However with these thunderstorms, there will be the risk of torrential downpours and severe weather.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Currently a warm front lies across the southern portions of Lake Ontario, creating a split in the cloud cover. This boundary acts as a split between the cloud cover and spotty showers to the north and dry weather to the south. Additionally, some fog has formed across the Genesee Valley and Southern Tier in the wake of the afternoon storms. These conditions will persist through the rest of the night.
Temperatures tonight will continue to remain of the warmer side with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The warm front will continue to waver across the northern portions of New York State today, supporting plenty of instability for showers and thunderstorms to form again late this morning and afternoon. Favored regions of lake breeze boundaries and in close proximity to the frontal boundary. Places northeast of Lake Erie across southeastern Erie and eastern Chautauqua counties will have the lowest chances for storms. Temperatures today will continue to be warm, especially south of the boundary. Highs will range in the low to mid 80s across areas south of Lake Ontario, whereas areas east of Lake Ontario will see highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Tonight, the surface low parent to the warm front will strengthen across the central Great Lakes and lift the warm front north of the region. This will then place the area beneath the warm sector, supporting ample warm moist air advection. Overall this will continue the chances for showers and thunderstorms, with the best likelihood for activity lying across the North Country due to the close proximity to the front.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A mid-level shortwave rippling through the zonal flow aloft and corresponding surface reflection (997-999mb low) passing to our west and northwest, will drag a cold front through the Lower Lakes on Sunday. Associated height falls with the pre-frontal trough will 'likely' encourage some measure of shower and thunderstorm activity ahead of this cold front. Guidance continues to suggest that the pre- frontal trough will arrive before the occurrence of peak heating between 12Z-15Z for far WNY
Even so
the cold front may still spark additional storms as it rolls east through the forecast area in the afternoon
Right now
the best chance for organized storms looks to be from the S. Tier/western Finger Lakes region ENE into the North Country and St. Lawrence Valley. Given ample shear (0-6km, 40 knots) any of the stronger cells will 'likely' have the potential to produce damaging winds and even an isolated tornado. SPC has highlighted the above mentioned areas in a slight risk for severe weather
Lastly
storms will also be capable of producing torrential rainfall given PW values in the neighborhood of 1.75-2.00 inches.

Otherwise...outside of the convective activity it will become quite breezy, with wind gusts up to 45 mph. The strongest winds will be felt northeast of Lake Erie across the Niagara Frontier. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 70s across the higher terrain to the low/mid 80s elsewhere.

Sunday night...with the departure of the cold front showers and thunderstorms will quickly decrease in coverage
However
there may still be some showers that linger east of Lake Ontario/St. Lawrence valley.

High pressure begins to build in on Monday with increasing subsidence which will bring about mainly dry weather for most locales. Although an isolated shower still can't be ruled out, especially east of Lake Ontario. The best part will be the notably cooler airmass and less humidity. Highs on Monday will be in the 70s near 80F in spots.

Surface high pressure slides overhead Monday night and then begins to sink south towards the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday ahead of the next cold front. We should see mainly dry weather Tuesday before chances for showers and storms increase through Wednesday. More on that in the long term disco.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Confidence is low in timing and coverage of showers/thunderstorms associated with an approaching front for Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Long range guidance is in poor agreement on the evolution of a shortwave expected to slide east across Southern Ontario and the Great Lakes. Greater chances for showers and thunderstorms will potentially arrive Wednesday as a ~982mb surface low tracks across northern Quebec, sending its elongated cold front through the Northeast. While timing of this front and its associated prefrontal trough remain in question and thus lend lower confidence in how convection will ultimately unfold Wednesday...The system is expected to tap into a deeper plume of GOMEX-based moisture with PWATs potentially climbing to near 2" as it approaches. Thus, any storms that develop and move through the region should have the potential to bring locally heavy rains.

The primary cold front should move through the region Wednesday night, with increasing subsidence and a drier airmass allowing shower/thunderstorm chances to decrease from west to east in its wake. As much of the Northeast sits within the post-frontal airmass, temperatures will be notably cooler Thursday and Thursday night, with highs in the low/mid 70s and lows in the 50s and upper 40s respectively. Dry weather should then last through the end of the week with moderating temperatures as surface high pressure moves over and east of the region.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
With a warm front lying across the southern portions of Lake Ontario, dry conditions lie to the south, whereas a few showers and clouds are spread across the North Country. While conditions across the area remain VFR across all TAF sites, conditions will diminish throughout the day.

Today, the warm front will waver northward. While CIGS today will gradually become MVFR today, the main impact will be the threat for convection, particularly east of Lake Ontario and along lake breeze boundaries. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will then continue throughout tonight inland from the lakes.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Light winds and minimal wave action is expected to continue across the lower lakes today. There will still be the chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms which could produce gusty winds and higher wave action.

A cold front will approach the region Sunday with increasing southwest winds which may bring a period of SCAs to area lakes. Northerly flow behind the front will then bring continued choppy conditions to the lakes through Monday. High pressure builds in late Monday with diminishing winds and waves for Tuesday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 10 mi57 minE 6G6 70°F 30.07
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 11 mi69 min 69°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 36 mi47 minENE 5.8G5.8 67°F 66°F30.0565°F


Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KROC GREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY 6 sm63 minSSW 0310 smMostly Cloudy72°F66°F83%30.06
KIUA CANANDAIGUA,NY 19 sm22 mincalm2 smOvercast Mist 68°F68°F100%30.06
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Wind History graph: ROC
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Buffalo, NY,




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