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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 943 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am est Sunday through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Patchy fog. Showers likely with patchy drizzle late this evening, then a chance of showers with patchy drizzle after midnight. A chance of showers late. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Rain in the evening, then a chance of rain overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow and rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 030957 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 457 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Disorganized low pressure over the Ohio valley will approach our forecast area during the day Sunday
and as it consolidates
it will generate a soaking rain for much of Sunday into at least the first part of Sunday night. Most areas will pick up a half inch of rain with areas east of Lake Ontario will receive as much as an inch. Colder air in the wake of the system will encourage the leftover showery precipitation to mix with some snow at times late Sunday night into Monday night. Only negligible snow accumulations are anticipated though with NO real impacts.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A lead shortwave ahead of a complex developing storm system will pass over the Lower Great Lakes this morning...and this will support increasingly widespread rain...particularly from the Genesee valley eastward
Some of this rain will be moderately heavy at times
as an anomalously strong 190kt (+3 STD / >30 yr return interval) H25 jet over the Ohio valley will combine with a modest 30kt low level jet to produce fairly deep lift within a relatively moist airmass.

A short lived dry slot will work across the western counties in the wake of the initial shortwave during the midday/early afternoon.
While this should result in a lull in the coverage/intensity of the rain over the Finger Lakes region...a notably more robust shortwave will take aim on our region for the latter part of the afternoon and evening. This feature will support a second round of widespread rain
All in all
this will not be the nicest day for grabbing that Christmas tree or for holiday shopping
but at this time of year
it could always be worse. Rainfall amounts during the daylight hours will range from a quarter inch over Chautauqua county to roughly a half inch for the Eastern Lake Ontario region
Meanwhile
temps will remain solidly above normal with forecast highs within a few degrees of 50 over the western counties and mid 40s across the North country.

The strong mid level shortwave and associated sfc reflection low reflection will cross our region during the first half of tonight.
The corresponding widespread rain will taper off to showers from west to east during the course of the night with weak cold advection encouraging modest lake induced instability for some lake enhancement east of both lakes after midnight. Colder air filtering into the region will allow the pcpn to mix with for some sites...
change to a bit of wet snow...but only negligible accumulations are anticipated. The highest chance for an inch or so of accumulation will be across the Tug Hill.

While very weak mid level ridging will cross our area on Monday...a great deal of moisture will remain trapped beneath a low subsidence inversion within a cyclonic flow. This will keep our skies shrouded under overcast skies with temperatures dipping some 5 to 10 degrees lower than those of today. This scenario will be accompanied by nuisance rain and wet snow showers...especially east of both lakes where mixed pcpn will be likely
Again
any snow accumulations will be negligible and certainly not of any consequence.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Temps aloft remain cool enough for a weak lake response to continue off both Lakes into Monday night as winds veer northwesterly, which will also provide some weak upslope enhancement to northwest facing slopes. That said, drier air and subsidence moving in behind passage of the upper trough axis and surface high pressure building in from the west will cause inversion heights to drop further with paltry lake effect precip winding down through the overnight. Expect snow showers across the higher terrain with a rain/snow mix across the lower elevations first half of Monday night as temps remain above freezing there. Any accumulations will be light with up to a half inch interior Southern Tier and possibly an inch on the Tug Hill.
Low temps mainly in the mid to upper 20s, with low 30s near the lakeshores and across portions of the lake plains.

Weak upper ridging overhead to start Tuesday gets nudged eastward and replaced by upper troughing as shortwave associated with weak Clipper system slides by to our southwest. In fact, a bit further southwest than previous model runs. This may take even the light snowfall amounts previously expected across the Southern Tier and shunt them further southwest. Add in the fact that daytime highs will likely be near freezing even across the Southern Tier terrain areas, forecast snowfall amounts are minimal even on the hilltops.
High temps will be mainly mid and upper 30s, with low 30s Southern Tier and some upper 20s Tug Hill/western Dacks.

A fairly dry low level northerly flow sets up Tuesday night with some weak cold advection. With weak cyclonic flow associated with trough overhead, may be enough to squeeze out a few snow showers, especially in upslope favored areas. Again, expect very minor snowfall accumulations. Low temps will range through the 20s, coolest east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
On Wednesday broad low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coastline will slide further east and out to sea, while high pressure and drier air over the upper Great Lakes gradually settles into the lower Lakes region. Lingering cold northerly to northwesterly cyclonic flow on the backside of the departing low will lead to some scattered snow showers south and southeast of the Lakes Wednesday morning, with these thinning out in coverage in the afternoon as the ridge approaches and provides increasing drying and subsidence. Likely the coolest day (and not that cool) of this 7-day period with highs ranging from the mid and upper 20s across the terrain, with lower to mid 30s across the lower elevations.

Surface ridge crests over the area Wednesday night providing mainly dry and seasonably cool conditions with lows in the 20s, mid to upper teens North Country. Surface ridge slides slowly east on Thursday with a low level southwesterly return flow setting up, while wing of warm advection aloft pushes through the area. This will bring a more general chance for some light rain and snow showers across the area. Slightly warmer Thursday with highs mainly mid to upper 30s western NY, while mid/upper 20s to low 30s hang on North Country.

Warm front lingers near the Canadian border Thursday night with a chance of light rain and snow showers in its vicinity. Upper ridge builds overhead for Friday. While can't rule out a few mainly rain showers especially toward the Saint Lawrence valley, expect a good deal of dry time to end the work week. Rising heights aloft and a deep southwesterly flow will advect in some warmer air with low to mid 40s south of Lake Ontario, mid and upper 30s reserved for the Tug Hill/western Dacks.

Upper level trough digs across the central CONUS Friday night into Saturday, which will amplify the downstream upper ridge as it slides east over New England. A few rain/higher elevation wet snow showers again cannot be ruled out under continued weak warm advection regime, however expect a good deal of dry time to start the weekend with many areas seeing highs Saturday mid to upper 40s, some mid/upper 30s hanging on Tug hill/western Dacks. Looking a bit further ahead, appears strong lee-side cyclogenesis will take place east of the central/southern Rockies on Saturday spawning the development of surface low pressure that will rapidly deepen as it heads toward the eastern Great Lakes/Northeast, possibly impacting our area by the second half of next weekend. This is a long way off, but something that will need to monitored. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A wealth of moisture trapped beneath a staunch inversion will keep IFR to LIFR cigs in place across the majority of the region for the remainder of the overnight
Oddly enough
the exception will be found across parts of the Srn Tier where MVFR conditions will be more prevalent.

On Sunday...disorganized low pressure will approach from the Ohio valley. This will result in fairly widespread rain moving into the area with cigs largely remaining at IFR levels.

While the rain will become more showery Sunday night...colder air wrapping in behind the passing storm system will encourage the pcpn to at least mix with some snow showers at times
Meanwhile
cigs will remain low at IFR levels for most areas.

Outlook...
Monday...MVFR/IFR cigs in scattered rain and snow showers.
Tuesday...Areas of MVFR in mixed rain/wet snow showers.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.

MARINE
Fresh northeasterlies on Lake Ontario today will support small craft advisories for the nearshore waters west of Sodus Bay. This area of SCA's has been extended through Monday evening to account for similarly strong westerlies that will develop in the wake of a storm system tonight.

In fact...winds throughout the Lower Great Lakes will significantly freshen tonight through at least Monday...so new SCA's have been issued for the Lake Erie nearshore waters as well as the remaining nearshore marine zones on Lake Ontario. Wind gusts will reach 30kts on Lake Erie at times during this period...while gale force gusts will be possible on LaKe Ontario...especially over the open waters.

High pressure over the mid western states Monday evening will then gradually build across the Lower Great Lakes late Monday night and Tuesday. This will allow winds and waves to subside to well below SCA thresholds.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for LOZ042-043.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ044.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday for LOZ045.

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