Friday, July10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brighton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:52PM Friday July 10, 2020 8:48 PM EDT (00:48 UTC) Moonrise 11:19PMMoonset 10:07AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 723 Am Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy, then clearing. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 55 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202007101515;;620683 FZUS51 KBUF 101123 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 723 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-101515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brighton, NY
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As of July 8 NOAA did a network migration which caused this Forecast section to break. They are aware of the problem and working on it with high priority.
location: 43.12, -77.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 102356 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 756 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. The impressive heat wave of the past week or so is about to end . as a complex frontal system will slowly cross the Lower Great Lakes. This will support increased coverage for beneficial showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. The most impressive rains will come tonight east of Lake Ontario from the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay. High temperatures this weekend will generally be in the low to mid 80s . more than 10 degrees lower than recent days for the bulk of the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. It will remain warm and humid tonight. There will be the chance for more widespread thunderstorms over the far western counties . while a few hours of steady rain from the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay will move north across the Eastern Lake Ontario region.

Saturday . The tropical system should quickly move out of harms way east of Lake Ontario, but lingering moisture will lead to ample buoyancy late in the day. Thus there will be the possibility of potentially strong thunderstorm development in the afternoon/ evening. Shear is a little on the light side, but this will probably be the focus area for any potential severe weather development as the base of the upper level trough moves through.

Further west, convection over the Southern Tier is expected or at least likely during the morning, with a fair shot of convection at any given location for the majority of the day as the upper level trough moves ENE across WNY.

Overall though, the main weather impacts Saturday will be welcome relief from the week-long heat along with much needed rainfall.

Saturday night . convection, primarily east of Lake Ontario, should start pulling out of the region. Thus the night should end with a temporary lull in any precip potential toward morning as a weak shortwave ridge moves in (ahead of the next trough.)

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Showers will linger east of Lake Ontario Sunday morning as a shortwave trough exits northern New England. There will be a brief period of subsidence across the eastern Great Lakes while the next shortwave trough tracks across Indiana and Ohio Sunday afternoon. While mostly dry conditions are expected Sunday afternoon, showers will begin to move into western NY by early evening. Sunday will be less humid Sunday with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Showers will spread across the region Sunday night as warm air advection and high PWATS surge northward. A cold front will approach the region overnight. Elevated instability is possible ahead of the front late Sunday night which may produce thunderstorms across the Southern Tier. Low temperatures will fall to the low to mid 60s. The front will move across the region Monday. Daytime heating and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will produce instability and thunderstorms will be possible. The speed and location of the front will dictate which areas see the greater chance for convection Monday. At this time, the eastern Lake Ontario region has the best chance as it will likely stay ahead of the mid-level trough axis. Forecast deep layer shear of 30+ kts may lead to a few strong storms if the timing is right. High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s to low 80s across the Lake Plains..

Showers linger into Monday evening as another shortwave trough swings near the region. Low temperatures will fall to the upper 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The upper level pattern shifts Tuesday with a trough moving over New England and a ridge building northward across the Great Lakes. A dry northwest flow will lead to mostly dry conditions Tuesday and Tuesday night. The upper level ridge will flatten and move across the Northeast mid-week. Warm air advection will bring warmer temperatures back into the region with highs climbing into the upper 80s Wednesday.

The ridge continues to flatten and the flow becomes more or less zonal with the exception of a few weak shortwave troughs that move across the Great Lakes basin. An elongated area of high pressure will sit across the lower half of the Lower 48 through Saturday. Little sign of any widespread rainfall during this period however showers and thunderstorms are possible. Heat and humidity will increase into next weekend.

Supporting another heat wave are temperature forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The Day 8-14 U.S. Hazards Outlook map includes the Great Lakes region in an area for EXCESSIVE heat during the July 18-24 period . and the corresponding 8-14 temp outlook has a 70 percent bullseye for above normal temps over the region.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. While VFR conditions will be in place for most areas tonight . convection over the far western counties will lead to areas of short lived MVFR vsbys in heavier rain Speaking of which. the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay will pass well to our east late tonight . but the rain shield will move across the Eastern Lake Ontario region which will lead to several hours of MVFR vsbys in moderate rain for KART and KGTB.

On Saturday . showers and thunderstorms should be somewhat more widespread across all of western and north central NY as another boundary will push through. While VFR conditions will dominate the day . convection will offer more challenging conditions for aviators . including localized but generally short lived MVFR vsbys in heavy rains.

Outlook .

Sunday . Mainly VFR with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Monday . VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. Tuesday and Wednesday . VFR.

MARINE. A weak cold front will move through Saturday and be accompanied by a few rounds showers and thunderstorms. Some SCA conditions will be possible over Lake Erie by the afternoon. Tropical Storm Fay will affect portions of the St Lawrence River and toward far eastern Lake Ontario tonight with potentially heavy rain, but winds should not be a factor.

CLIMATE. Here are the current record maximums, and warm minimums .

Friday July 10th Record Highs

Buffalo . 95F 1988 (Already broken today - 97F so far) Rochester . 102F 1936 Watertown . 92F 2007 (Already broken today - 95F so far)

Friday July 10th Record Warm Minimums

Buffalo . 76F 1897 Rochester . 79F 1936 Watertown . 73F 2013

Consecutive 90+ Degree Days in Buffalo (Ending Date) 1) 7/10/2020 - 8 (today) 2) 7/10/1988 - 7 3) 7/ 1/1963 - 5 -) 8/14/1947 - 5

Consecutive 90+ Degree Days in Rochester (Ending Date)

1) 9/ 5/1973 - 9 2) 8/ 6/1955 - 8 -) 8/16/1944 - 8 4) 8/11/1900 - 7 5) 7/ 5/2018 - 6 -) 7/10/1988 - 6 -) 7/20/1977 - 6 -) 7/13/1936 - 6 -) 6/ 7/1925 - 6 -) 7/ 8/1921 - 6

Consecutive 90+ Degree Days in Watertown (Ending Date)

1) 8/ 3/1955 - 6 2) 8/ 5/1988 - 4 -) 9/ 5/1973 - 4 4) 7/ 7/1975 - 3 . 10)7/ 7/2020 - 2

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . RSH NEAR TERM . RSH/Zaff SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . HSK/RSH/Thomas AVIATION . RSH MARINE . Zaff CLIMATE . Apffel/JLA/RSH/Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 10 mi48 min SSE 18 G 24 84°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 11 mi54 min 1007.1 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 36 mi68 min SSE 9.7 G 12 81°F 77°F1007.3 hPa75°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 60 mi54 min SE 8 G 11 1008.4 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY6 mi54 minSSE 17 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F63°F49%1007.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NW5N5W5SW7W5SW3SW3CalmSW3SW3S6S8SW7S8S9E8S10SE14
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1 day agoSW3CalmCalmSW4CalmSW4SW3W3SW4SW5SW4SW54S4S5SW9W8SW10CalmS8NE15N13NE9NE10
2 days agoCalmW3SW11SW14SW9SW6SW7SW5SW7SW6W6SW6W5W45CalmN6S105Calm5S5SW6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.