Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brighton, NY

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:46PM Friday July 19, 2019 7:43 PM EDT (23:43 UTC) Moonrise 9:39PMMoonset 7:14AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 151 Pm Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
This afternoon..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 51 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201907192115;;310628 FZUS51 KBUF 191751 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 151 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-192115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brighton, NY
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location: 43.12, -77.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 192122
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
522 pm edt Fri jul 19 2019

Synopsis
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the night
within a very warm and humid airmass. Oppressive summer heat
and humidity is expected across the whole area on Saturday,
though there will be a continued risk of showers and
thunderstorms. A cold front is expected to cross the area Sunday
night, allowing for a break from the heat and humidity by early
next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Will clear the severe thunderstorm watch for all areas except
for the southern tier and lake erie with this update.

The main line of convection is now along the nys pa border and
is producing thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and potential
for strong damaging winds. This activity is forming along a sb
cape environment of 2k - 3k j kg. With a deep warm cloud layer,
frequent lightning is also found within these storms.

Also will need to monitor additional storms developing upstream
over SE lower michigan as these could move in later this
evening across the western southern tier.

Otherwise within an unstable environment through the overnight
period a few stray showers or thunderstorms will remain
possible.

Lows tonight will be sultry, only in the mid to upper 70s on the
lake plains and lower 70s in the southern tier valleys and lewis
county. The very warm and humid nighttime conditions will offer
little relief in buildings without air conditioning.

On Saturday, attn early in the day could be an MCS moving by
just to the north. Uncertainty on northward extent of this
complex. So, right now at least, expect less cloud cover than
was around today. Therefore think we will be able to realize
some of the higher heat index values projected. For that reason
and the very warm and humid conditions tonight, left the going
heat headlines in place. All this will depend on extent of
convection around during the morning though.

May see additional showers and storms try to develop in the
afternoon during peak heating on Saturday, though without stronger
forcing from an upstream mvc, it may be tough if we are more into
stronger capping environment seen upstream on 12z detroit sounding.

Lake breezes may be able to overcome that though. Any showers and
thunderstorms from Saturday afternoon will continue to track east
and weaken into Saturday evening. Similar to today though, abundance
of instability would mean some storms may pose a risk of having
damaging winds and heavy rain even as deep layer shear remains
marginal.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday night
The relief from the heat and humidity is not far away as a pair of
cold fronts approach western and north-central ny Saturday night.

Any showers and thunderstorms from Saturday afternoon will continue
to track east and weaken into Saturday evening. The first, nearly
west to east oriented cold front will approach the region from the
north Saturday evening. While daytime heating has come to an end, a
warm and humid airmass will remain across the region Saturday night.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible as the front sags slowly
southward. Due to the abundance of instability and low-level
convergence moving across, some storms may pose a risk of having
damaging winds and heavy rain into Sunday morning. Mild and humid
temperatures expected with overnight lows only dropping to the low
to mid 70s.

The relief from the humidity will be felt Sunday, first across the
north country and by afternoon across portions of western ny. There
is discrepancy as to how fast the humid airmass cold front leaves
western ny Sunday. Dewpoints will likely remain elevated, near 70
across the southern tier. While the cold front is south of the ny pa
border, showers and thunderstorms are possible through the early
evening with the highest risk south of i-90. High temperatures will
reach the mid to upper 80s.

The second cold front should move through the region Sunday night.

An amplified shortwave trough will move across the upper great
lakes. Low pressure will form near the ohio valley and along the
first cold front. The surface low will ride along the front and into
the mid-atlantic and southern new england. The front may backbuild
slightly resulting in low chances of showers and thunderstorms
across western ny. Dry conditions should occur across the north
country. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 60s.

Showers are likely across western and north-central ny as low
pressure moves to the south and east of the region. Models have been
trending closer and wetter with this system. At this time, light
rainfall amounts expected but if this trend continues more rainfall
is possible. A light north-northwest wind and mostly cloudy
conditions will lead to cooler conditions across western and north
central ny. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s Monday. Dry
conditions expected Monday night with temperatures in the mid
50's to low 60's.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
A lingering mid and upper level trough will provide for the chance
of showers on Tuesday as an increased moisture flux and trough axis
pass through the area during this time. There is the potential for a
shortwave to pass through the area on Thursday providing the chance
for some showers and thunderstorms, but guidance is still split on
the timing and location for the potential for precip. The overall
pattern for this period will maintain a trough over the eastern half
of the country that will start to weaken and shift east late Friday
into the weekend.

Cooler than normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday with
highs in the low to mid 70s for most areas and a few upper 70s for
areas of the lake plains. A slight warming trend will begin for
Thursday and Friday when temperatures will increase closer to normal
with highs around 80 for most of the area.

Aviation 21z Friday through Wednesday
Northern portions of the niagara frontier will experience showers
and storms through mid afternoon as mesoscale convective complex
moves in from ontario. Have indicated gusty winds to 40 kts and ifr
vsby as this moves through. Also have the potential that convection
may develop upstream across southwest ontario this afternoon could
move into western ny by this evening. After MVFR CIGS scatter out
early this afternoon, CIGS vsby will beVFR the vast majority of the
time into Saturday, but any additional showers and storms will
produce local brief MVFR to ifr conditions.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday... MainlyVFR with a chance of a few
brief rounds of showers and thunderstorms with associated local MVFR
to ifr.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR conditions expected.

Marine
Southwest winds will increase to around 15 knots again on Saturday.

This will produce choppy conditions at times especially on lake
erie, although winds and waves will likely remain below small craft
advisory levels.

There will be a chance of a few scattered thunderstorms at times
through the rest of the weekend. Any thunderstorm may produce
locally higher winds and waves.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Heat advisory until 6 pm edt Saturday for nyz006>008-010>012-
019>021-085.

Excessive heat warning until 6 pm edt Saturday for nyz001>005-
013-014.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock jla
near term... Hitchcock jla thomas
short term... Hsk
long term... Sw
aviation... Hitchcock jla
marine... Hitchcock jla


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 10 mi43 min WSW 11 G 16 82°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 11 mi61 min 80°F 1008.5 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 36 mi33 min W 12 G 16 76°F 72°F71°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 60 mi61 min SW 8 G 11 82°F 1009.3 hPa73°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY6 mi49 minW 1110.00 miOvercast81°F69°F67%1010.1 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E5SE3CalmS3W3SW6SW9SW9SW5SW7SW7SW9SW13W7W10W11W15W10W10W10W12
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1 day agoE8E7E5E5E4SE4SE4CalmNE6E6E5E3NE3NE3NE5SE4Calm33W5N7NE7NE5E6
2 days agoSW7S9SW8SW7SW4SW7CalmSW3SW6CalmSW4SW5SW5SW5SW4W7W7SW5SW6SW4SW4S5CalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.