Thursday, October17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brighton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 6:26PM Thursday October 17, 2019 1:37 PM EDT (17:37 UTC) Moonrise 7:50PMMoonset 10:00AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1024 Am Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Rest of today..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Rain, then a few more showers likely late. Waves 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then scattered showers overnight. Waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday night..West winds diminishing to less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 knots or less. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 57 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201910172115;;846565 FZUS51 KBUF 171424 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1024 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-172115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brighton, NY
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location: 43.12, -77.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 171421
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1021 am edt Thu oct 17 2019

Synopsis
Windy and chilly conditions will continue across the region today,
with widespread rain for most of the region. The rain will slowly
taper off to scattered showers late today and tonight before ending
by early Friday. Dry weather will then return on Friday as high
pressure builds back into the region, with fair weather and steadily
warming temperatures then following for the weekend as the high
slides off the east coast.

Near term through tonight
Through the rest of today an impressive closed upper level low will
track from new york state to the new england coastline... And in the
process will become vertically stacked upon its attendant strong
secondary coastal low that is still deepening over new england. As
this occurs the surface low will push northward into central new
england and temporarily stall out through midday over new hampshire,
then will slide northeastward and off the maine coastline later
this afternoon.

Radar imagery showing widespread rain across the majority of the
area late this morning, with the only drier locations across the far
southwest corner of the state. The widespread rain is being driven
by the remnants of an inverted trough, which are rotating across
lake ontario and across new york. Associated deep moisture, low
level convergence, and a well defined axis of deformation to the
west of the strong coastal low are supporting this rainfall. In
addition to the synoptic scale forcing, moderate to strong lake
instability and northwest upslope flow are enhancing the rainfall to
the southeast of the lakes. The steadiest rain will last through
early afternoon. By mid to late afternoon the deeper moisture and
best forcing will begin to move away from the area, which will allow
for a gradual decrease in coverage and intensity of the rain.

Otherwise... Expect a cool to even chilly day today as the
widespread showers and cloud cover will help to inhibit any
real warming of our already cool airmass... With highs remaining
confined to the mid to upper 40s across the higher terrain... And
the upper 40s to lower 50s across the lower elevations. The
already cool conditions will be made to feel even more raw
by increasing northwesterly winds on the backside of the coastal
low... Which will gust to 30-40 mph across much of the area. The
strongest overall winds will be found along the southern
shorelines of lakes erie and ontario... Where some gusts to 45
mph or so (or just below wind advisory criteria) appear likely.

With respect to total rainfall amounts from this system... 36-hour
totals from Wednesday through today will be greatest across the
north country... Where basin-average amounts of 2 to 3 inches
will be likely. While impressive... The resulting effects from
this rainfall should remain limited to within-bank rises on area
waterways and some ponding in areas of poor drainage... With the
longer-duration nature of the rainfall and the dry antecedent
conditions of the preceding week likely precluding further issues.

Elsewhere a secondary maxima of around an inch and half or so will
be found along the chautauqua ridge due to lake and orographic
enhancement... With most other areas finishing up with a general
inch to an inch and a quarter of rainfall.

As we move into tonight the coastal low will make its way into
the canadian maritimes... With its deeper wraparound moisture
gradually eroding away across our region. Combined with lowering
inversion heights... This will result in the showers becoming
increasingly scattered and confined to areas southeast of the
lakes with time. This said... Plentiful lingering low level moisture
and continued upsloping should still help to keep fairly widespread
lower clouds in place right through the night. Otherwise... A
weakening pressure gradient across our region will allow winds to
diminish... With overnight lows settling into the upper 30s across
interior portions of the southern tier north country and to the
lower to mid 40s elsewhere.

Short term Friday through Sunday night
The lake effect rain showers from the previous 36 hours will come to
an end Friday morning... As an already repressive subsidence
inversion of around 5kft will further lower to 3kft. This will
effectively squash any remaining nuisance convection within the last
vestiges of a unstable cyclonic flow. Otherwise... It will be brisk
and chilly across the region with gusty northwest winds through
midday being accompanied by a fair amount of cloud cover. While the
wealth of strato-cu trapped beneath the staunch subsidence inversion
will be stubborn to clear... We should experience at least partial
clearing during the course of the afternoon. The exception to this
will be from about wayne county to the thousand islands where the
residual moisture will still be supplemented from the lake and some
weak orographic lift (ern lk ontario region) will keep a little lift
in place in the lower levels.

Skies will finish clearing out Friday night when ridging at all
levels will press to the east across our forecast area. The
generally clear skies and light winds will promote good radiational
cooling... And this will allow most areas away from the lakes to
experience patchy to widespread frost with temperatures falling into
the low to mid 30s. Since the growing season has not officially been
brought to an end for the bulk of the western counties (except catt,
wyoming and allegany)... Frost headlines will very likely be needed
at that time.

Saturday then promises to be a beautiful fall day... As sfc high
pressure and its corresponding mid level ridge axis will push east
of our area. Already well established warm advection on the backside
of the ridge will allow h85 temps to climb to nearly 10 deg c.

Unfortunately... We will not be able to completely mix to the sfc or
else we would be talking about afternoon highs in the 70s. It will
still be quite pleasant though as the bulk of the western counties
should be able to break the 60 degree mark... With mid and upper 50s
anticipated east of lake ontario. These temperatures will combine
with abundant sunshine and light winds to make this a perfect day to
get to enjoy the foliage... Which by this time will be heading into
its final days of its peak color.

A negatively tilted shortwave trough extending from the upper great
lakes to the ohio valley Saturday evening will push northeast and
shear out across our forecast area late Saturday night and early
Sunday. While this should only result in some increased clouds for
our region... Have maintained slight chc pops for isolated light
showers.

Long term Monday through Wednesday
While temperatures will average above normal during this period...

they will trend lower as we push towards the middle of the week. The
trend towards cooler... More seasonable conditions will come as a
result of a deep trough over the intermountain west that will evolve
into a very broad trough that will cover the majority of the
country. Fortunately the airmass within the trough will be of
pacific origin... So by the time temperatures bottom out over our
region they will be within a few degrees of normal. The change to
cooler weather will be highlighted by a slow moving frontal system
that could end up supporting another round of soaking rain. The
details...

the period will start off innocent enough as high pressure wedging
south across the st lawrence valley to our forecast area will
provide us with dry weather and comfortable high temperatures. H85
temps will once again climb to near 10c... But unlike Saturday... A
strengthening southeasterly flow should be more efficient at mixing
the airmass. Will be optimistic at this point and aim a little
higher than guidance by going with mid and upper 60s... A solid 10
deg above seasonal levels.

Conditions will deteriorate from that point forward though... As a
deep stacked cyclone over the uppermost mississippi valley will push
a wavy occlusion across lower michigan and the ohio valley. The
likelihood of at least one wave along this occluded boundary will
throw a wrench into trying to time its passage... But guidance is in
fair agreement of a slower progression than earlier advertised. As
the feature approaches lake erie late Monday night... Showers and
possibly an area of steadier rain will move into our forecast area.

Have lowered pops to high chc for sites east of rochester to account
for the slower movement of the front... Which by Tuesday morning will
be nearly parallel to the h7 flow.

The occlusion will then slowly cross our forecast area Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Have raised pops to high likely and have also added
the slgt chc for thunder to account for the strong h25 jet dynamics
that should be in the vcnty during the passage of the sfc front.

Should there be a wave to our south along the boundary... This would
more likely be a prolonged period of moderately heavy rain. Stay
tuned.

The front will then grudgingly push away to our east late Tuesday
night and or Wednesday. H85 temps are forecast to drop to about -2c
in its wake... And with a deep cyclonic flow of moist air in place...

this would ignite the lakes once again with lake effect rain
showers.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
Wrap around moisture, lake effect instability, and upslope flow will
all combine to produce widespread rain through 18z today across the
bulk of the area, with a mix ofVFR and MVFR vsby. The steadier rain
will begin to lessen in coverage during the mid to late afternoon as
the coastal low begins to move eastward over the maine coast.

Widespread low clouds will continue through the rest of today, with
MVFR favored at lower elevations and ifr across higher terrain.

Additionally... Northwesterly winds will increase with gusts of 25 to
35 knots common areawide... And some gusts approaching 40 knots along
the south shores of lakes erie and ontario.

Tonight the coastal low will make its way into the canadian
maritimes... With its deeper wraparound moisture gradually eroding
away across our region. Combined with a lowering inversion... This
will result in the showers becoming increasingly scattered and
confined to areas southeast of the lakes... Though plenty of lingering
low level moisture and continued upsloping should continue to ensure
widespread MVFR ceilings... With areas of ifr again found across
the higher terrain.

Outlook...

Friday... MVFR ifr ceilings improving toVFR.

Saturday through Monday...VFR.

Marine
Deep low pressure over new england will strengthen a little
further this morning... With a corresponding tightening of the
pressure gradient across the lower great lakes leading to
moderately strong northwesterlies. This will lead to fairly
widespread higher end advisory-level winds and waves... Along
with some wind gusts to gale force at times.

Winds will then begin to diminish tonight... With more significant
improvement then expected on Friday as the low pulls further away
from our region... And high pressure builds eastward from the
central great lakes.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Friday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
lez020.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Friday for loz030.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Friday for loz043-044.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Friday for loz042.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Friday for loz045.

Synopsis... Hitchcock jjr
near term... Hitchcock jjr
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Hitchcock jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 10 mi38 min WNW 23 G 31 48°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 11 mi56 min 47°F 998.7 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 36 mi38 min WNW 25 G 33 51°F 997.5 hPa46°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 60 mi50 min NW 25 G 30 50°F 995.3 hPa48°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY6 mi44 minNW 15 G 2510.00 miLight Rain47°F43°F86%1000.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7S4S4SW5SW4--W8SW8W5SW9W6W7W6W9W8W11W9NW11
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1 day agoS73SW6SE5E6E7E7E6SE5S6SE8SE7SE5SE4SE5S7S9S11S11S14
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2 days agoW11W10W11W9W6W4SW5SW4SW5SW4SW5W4SW5SW4SW4SW4SW4SW5SW6SW6SW7SW8SW8SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.