Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brighton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 5:07PM Monday January 20, 2020 6:02 PM EST (23:02 UTC) Moonrise 3:44AMMoonset 1:32PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 626 Am Est Mon Jan 20 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through Tuesday morning...
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers through early afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Scattered snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Scattered flurries. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 38 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202001201615;;237447 FZUS51 KBUF 201126 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 626 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-201615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brighton, NY
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location: 43.12, -77.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 202102 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 402 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold northwest flow will continue the potential for light lake effect snow showers at times through Tuesday southeast of the lakes with minimal additional accumulation. High pressure will move into the region providing a period of quiet weather and a gradual warming trend Wednesday through Friday. Low pressure will then move into the eastern Great Lakes this weekend, bringing a return to unsettled weather.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. A weak trough axis will cross the eastern Great Lakes this evening. This trough will raise inversion heights back to around 5K feet, and will also introduce more moisture into the boundary layer. A shallow mixed phase layer will exist beneath the low inversion, and may allow for some weak lake effect snow showers to re-generate southeast of the lakes this evening. Already are seeing lake effect clouds developing on Lake Ontario. Off Lake Ontario, most of the snow showers will be found from the Monroe County shoreline eastward to western Oswego County. Off Lake Erie this will primarily focus across the Chautauqua Ridge. The very low inversion heights will keep this activity light, with accumulations limited to less than an inch in most locations. Some of the high resolution guidance suggests a few small corridors of 1-2 inches accumulation from near Webster into Wayne County off Lake Ontario, and along the Chautauqua Ridge off Lake Erie if the light snow is able to persist in one location for long enough.

Tuesday inversion heights will slowly lower again as the weak trough departs, and weak warm advection begins aloft. This will force what limited lake effect snow is left to weaken further. Off Lake Erie, expect scattered light snow showers across the western Southern Tier in the morning to end in the afternoon. Inversion heights remain a little higher off Lake Ontario, which may allow a few snow showers to linger southeast of Lake Ontario. Boundary layer flow will back to the WSW during the afternoon, carrying any remaining snow showers towards the Tug Hill region at the east end of the lake. This may produce some very minor, less than an inch accumulations east of Lake Ontario later Tuesday afternoon.

Outside of these lake effect areas, it will remain dry tonight through Tuesday. Skies will be clear tonight away from the lake effect clouds. Increasing low level moisture will then bring a general west to east increase in cloud cover Tuesday.

Lows tonight will be in the teens in most areas, with some single digits across the valleys of the Southern Tier. East of Lake Ontario temperatures will be much colder with clear skies, less wind, and no maritime influence. Lows may drop to 5 to 10 below zero in some of the colder spots.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Fast moving shortwave trough diving southeast through the NW'erly flow aloft will exit our far eastern portions of the CWA by Tuesday evening. In its wake, there may be some very light freezing drizzle through the first half of the night as moisture depletes within the dendritic growth zone. However, it's likely to be short lived and spotty in nature. With heights building aloft and surface high pressure over Tennessee and Ohio building in, look for dry weather to take hold for the second half of Tuesday night and continue through Friday. The eventual repositioning of the high just to our east over the course of the second half of the week will then encourage a slow but gradual warming trend. Southerly flow on the backside of this high will then nudge day to day highs from the low to mid 30s on Wednesday and then into the upper 30s to low 40s by Thursday and then repeat on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. After a period of quiet weather, precipitation chances will increase Friday night and on into the weekend. With that said, there has been some wild swings in the model guidance over the last 24-48 hours. where will this next system potentially track, only time will tell at this point in the forecast. One thing is for sure, wherever it does eventually settle it's likely it will not be an overly cold system with a mixture of rain/snow. Based on 12Z model consensus, ECMWF now beginning to fall in line with the GFS, there appears the above mention of a mixture of rain/snow will be likely, with some areas of light accumulating snowfall. Keep checking back for further updates as things could change again given the temperature and track uncertainty.

Sunday night, this system then exits to our east and precipitation chances decrease from west to east across the eastern Great Lakes. Weak surface high pressure then builds in for Monday with dry weather and seasonable temperatures as there is a lack of colder air on the backside of this system.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Lake effect clouds are in process of re-developing this evening over Lake Ontario and eventually will as well off Lake Erie. Exepct snow showers tonight southeast of the lakes as a weak trough crosses the eastern Great Lakes. This will produce some areas of MVFR CIGS and IFR VSBY in the more persistent snow showers. The only TAF site that is likely to be impacted is KJHW off Lake Erie. The Lake Ontario lake snow should stay just north and east of KROC most of the time.

Lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Erie will gradually end Tuesday, although MVFR CIGS may linger east and southeast of the lake. Lake effect snow showers and MVFR CIGS southeast of Lake Ontario will move to the east end of the lake later in the afternoon as winds become WSW. Some of this may move into KART toward evening.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Friday . Generally VFR. Saturday . MVFR/IFR possible with rain and wet snow.

MARINE. A weak trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes tonight. This will force west winds to increase later this afternoon and evening on Lake Ontario, producing a brief round of Small Craft Advisory conditions. Winds will diminish again by early Tuesday morning.

Another period of moderate westerlies will develop later Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, producing another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042-045.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA SHORT TERM . AR LONG TERM . AR AVIATION . Hitchcock/JLA MARINE . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 10 mi63 min W 8.9 G 13 21°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 11 mi51 min 19°F 1031.1 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 60 mi45 min W 21 G 25 23°F 1030 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G26
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G20

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY6 mi69 minW 710.00 miA Few Clouds19°F1°F45%1032.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW6NW9NW9NW8NW8N7N7N9NW6W5NW6W5W4SW5W5N8NW6NW4NW10NW9W11W7W5
1 day agoS9--SW14W18
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W14W15W17
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W10NW11NW16NW13
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS3S4SE7SE6SE9SE10SE9SE11SE11SE11SE11SE9SE9SE9S9S11S11S9S15
G20

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.