Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brighton, NY

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 4:36PM Monday December 9, 2019 8:46 PM EST (01:46 UTC) Moonrise 3:16PMMoonset 4:32AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 621 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am est Tuesday through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely this evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers in the morning, then snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 30 knots in the afternoon. A chance of snow showers in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 6 to 10 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Lake effect snow showers likely during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 41 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201912100415;;111988 FZUS51 KBUF 092321 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 621 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-100415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brighton, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 092341 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 641 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will move across the central Great Lakes, followed by a cold front which will sweep across the region late tonight. Behind the front, expect gusty winds and some lake effect snow showers Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. High pressure will move across the region and bring a return to dry weather for Thursday night and Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. An upper level trough will dig across the Great Lakes region tonight while a surface low strengthens as it moves from the Georgian Bay northeast into southwestern Quebec overnight. The warmest airmass aloft is over WNY this evening, along with probably the last of the steady precipitation, although this will last several more hours east of Lake Ontario. Cold air advection will follow with much less steady precipitation, but with more wind as colder air aloft begins to more effectively mix to the surface.

A still deepening surface low will move across central and northern Quebec on Tuesday with a trailing cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes late tonight into Tuesday. There will be a few hours with gusty winds just behind this front. These will be strongest east and northeast of the lakes where gusts to 45 mph are expected. Tuesday morning will remain windy, then winds will gradually diminish Tuesday afternoon.

The actual cold front will only produce a few brief showers as it moves east across the area early in the day. Developing upslope flow will allow showers to linger a little longer across the higher terrain east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Precipitation will change over to wet snow in these upslope areas, but any accumulation will be minimal. Temperatures will still be in the 40s before daybreak, but will drop through the 30s during the day with moderately strong cold advection in the wake of the cold front.

A secondary cold front will drop across Lake Ontario late Tuesday afternoon. This will provide a brief uptick in lake effect snows southeast of Lake Ontario as it captures a weak lake convergence band and moves it onshore. Even so, snow accumulations during the day Tuesday will be localized, and generally 2 inches or less.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Low pressure will continue to head northeast and deeper into Quebec Canada late Tuesday. Behind the above noted secondary front, lakes snows will likely weaken despite a colder air mass advecting into the eastern Great Lakes with H850T falling to -12C/-14C. Additionally, lake effect snows will be hampered by the fairly dry air mass filtering into the region, along with wind shear which will not provide a good environment for efficient lake snows. So with that said, lake snows off Lake Ontario will not completely shut down. It's possible that an upstream connection to the Georgian Bay will maintain some lake snows. Although, accumulations will be minor Tuesday night. Off Lake Erie, it will be a completely different story and without any upstream moisture available. The short fetch and dry air mass will likely shut it down almost completely, at least for a period. Expect only a few snow showers and minimal accumulations, if any at all.

Wednesday really is the ball game, this is when there will be the potential for a brief window of decent accumulating lake effect snows. A short wave trough and clipper low will race by to the north of the area. It will send its cold front through the eastern Great Lakes by mid to late in the afternoon. The cold front itself will do little, with nothing more than a few light snow showers. However, it will introduce a more favorable lake effect environment. Convergence along the advancing cold front will merge with pre-existing lake induced convergence over both lakes, resulting in intensifying bands of lake effect snow. Lake induced equilibrium levels will briefly rise to 10-11K feet with the passage of the clipper as moisture improves and a pool of cold air aloft crosses the eastern Great Lakes. A favorably deep mixed phase layer will be located within the cloud bearing layer, yielding dendritic growth.

Off Lake Erie .

A weak lake band will move back north across the Buffalo metro area very early Wednesday morning ahead of the front. As the front approaches the area the band will intensify rapidly across Northern Erie and a portion of Niagara county. It will then cross again the Buffalo metro area with an intense burst of lake effect snow from an added boost of synoptic support from the front, and increasing lake induced instability. The intense band will then move from Buffalo all the way down to Chautauqua County and push inland through the Southern Tier through the late afternoon. The band of snow will continue for a few hours across the western Southern Tier Wednesday evening before quickly weakening as inversion heights lower, shear increases, and moisture decreases with high pressure building over Lake Erie.

The fast pace of the southward band drift will greatly limit accumulations, even though the band of snow may become quite heavy. right now, estimates suggest 1-4 inches from the Buffalo Metro area into portions of Genesee County, and 2-5 inches across the higher terrain of Southern Erie/Wyoming counties into the Chautauqua Ridge. Even though amounts will be limited, if the brief burst of heavy snow materializes it would produce very difficult travel for a few hours. Winds will also gust 30-35 knots around this time, producing blowing and drifting snow.

Off Lake Ontario .

Expect a similar trend on Lake Ontario. The disorganized lake effect snow showers over the lake will push to the northeast end to near Kingston Ontario, possibly clipping Cape Vincent in northern Jefferson County. The band of snow will then intensify during the early to mid afternoon as the front approaches and synoptic support/instability improve. This intensifying band of snow will then move southeast across Jefferson County, crossing the Tug Hill region during the evening. The band will reach maximum intensity during this time frame as the best lake parameters line up with a period of upslope flow across the Tug Hill. The band will continue to march steadily southeast overnight, with a WNW to ESE oriented band of weakening lake snow moving into northern Cayuga/Wayne counties. A few snow showers may also clip the south shore farther west overnight from eastern Niagara to Monroe counties as boundary layer flow veers.

Similar to Lake Erie, the short residence time of the band in any one location will limit accumulations. Expect 2-4 inches across the lower elevations of the eastern Lake Ontario region, with up to 6 inches across the Tug Hill Plateau. Wayne and northern Cayuga counties may see a few inches overnight Wednesday. While amounts are not overly impressive, this band may produce difficult travel for a few hours with heavy snow and 30-35 knot wind gusts producing blowing and drifting.

High pressure builds overhead Thursday with any lake snows in the morning quickly diminishing off both lakes. Any additional accumulations in the morning will likely be minor, with the best chances off Lake Ontario. This is where an additional inch or so could be found. Other than that, expect one more cold day across the eastern Great Lakes with highs peaking in the 20s areawide. Thursday night, the surface high exits off to our east and then relocates off the coast of Nova Scotia by Friday. Lows Thursday night will fall back into the upper teens to low for Western NY into the Finger Lakes region, while single digits to low teens will be found east of Lake Ontario by daybreak. Friday, return flow around the high will initiate a fast warming trend, with temperatures returning to near normal.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. A complex system will then cross our region this weekend. A southern stream trough will support low pressure developing over the Gulf coast Friday. The resulting low will move almost due north, with one low center moving up the west side of the Appalachians and into the eastern Great Lakes by Saturday, with a second weak lee side low moving up the eastern seaboard. This southern stream trough will phase with a northern stream trough moving towards the western lakes, allowing an expansive area of deep layer ascent to move north across our area late Friday night and Saturday. This will produce another round of rain areawide. There is a small chance the rain may start as a wintry mix across the North Country if precipitation begins early enough, otherwise this looks to be an all rain event as temperatures warm into the 40s on Saturday.

The northern stream portion of this phasing system will then cross the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday, producing additional chances of rain and wet snow showers as colder air moves back into the region. Highs Sunday will be in the mid to upper 30s.

Sunday night, dry weather will returns as high pressure moves east and builds into the eastern Great Lakes. Dry and fair weather will likely continue Monday as high pressure moves over the area.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. An upper level trough will dig across the Great Lakes region tonight while a surface low strengthens as it moves from the Georgian Bay northeast into southwestern Quebec overnight. The warmest airmass aloft is over WNY this evening, along with probably the last of the steady precipitation, although this will last several more hours east of Lake Ontario. Cold air advection will follow with much less steady precipitation, but with more wind as colder air aloft begins to more effectively mix to the surface. Just ahead of the frontal boundary, winds may briefly diminish and allow KBUF/KIAG to briefly drop to IFR in lower cigs and possibly fog. Fog also is likely at KJHW where LIFR conditions are expected. The also will be a period with LLWS ahead of this boundary at most TAF sites.

Winds will shift to the WSW and rapidly increase behind the cold front which will move through the area between 07Z and 12Z. There may be some lingering rain or snow showers across higher terrain. Cigs will gradually lift to the MVFR/VFR flight category through Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook .

Tuesday . MVFR with rain showers ending from west to east. Snow showers possible late. Wednesday . IFR within lake effect snow east of the lakes. Thursday . VFR with localized IFR in lake effect snow showers east of the lakes. Friday . VFR. Saturday . MVFR. Rain likely.

MARINE. A cold front will move across the lower Great Lakes late tonight, and this will produce gusty southwest winds which will require Small Craft headlines for the nearshores and Buffalo Harbor. There was some concern that 40 knot 925 mb winds would result in gales on Lake Erie, but with surface temperatures still near 40 behind the front expect these winds aloft will not effectively mix to the surface.

Winds will briefly diminish Tuesday night when a surface ridge builds across the region. Then another cold front will move across the waters on Wednesday, and this will benefit from strong cold air advection and much colder surface temperatures. This may produce low-end gales on Lake Ontario where a Gale Watch was issued as outlined below. Elsewhere is likely to require another round of small craft headlines.

High pressure will then move across the lower Great Lakes Thursday and then into New England on Friday.

HYDROLOGY. A lingering warm airmass will cause continued snow melt east of Lake Ontario which will add to runoff from rain through Tuesday. For most basins, rainfall amounts will be less than an inch and the snow pack in place is limited, resulting in little risk for flooding.

There is a bit more snow pack in place in the Black River basin, with Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) values in the 1-2 inch range. Model guidance shows a bit more QPF here, with 1-1.5 inches across localized favorable upslope regions. Latest RFC forecast has Boonville reaching action stage by late Tuesday, with Watertown approaching action stage Thursday. Mesoscale guidance has overdone upslope precipitation early in the event, suggesting the higher amounts this has shown will be a bit overdone. MMEFS ensembles show a fairly high likelihood that Black River forecast points will reach action stage, but very low probabilities of flooding.

Based on this, have discussed this risk in the HWO. The most likely outcome remains action stage, but the situation bears watching. For now there is not enough confidence to issue any flood headlines.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ020. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for LOZ044-045-062>065. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel/Zaff SHORT TERM . AR/Hitchcock LONG TERM . AR/Hitchcock AVIATION . Apffel/TMA/Zaff MARINE . Apffel/TMA HYDROLOGY . Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 10 mi46 min SSW 16 G 22 50°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY6 mi52 minSW 16 G 2410.00 miOvercast47°F42°F83%999.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmS3S4S4SW4SW3SW4S4S4SW3SW4SW5S8S13S14
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2 days agoW4W8W4W6W10W8W7W6W5W7W5W4W4NW5NW8NW6NW10N8N7N3CalmCalmSW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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