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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Croswell, MI

July 23, 2024 10:44 PM EDT (02:44 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 9:01 PM
Moonrise 9:47 PM   Moonset 7:37 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 951 Pm Edt Tue Jul 23 2024

Rest of tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.

Wednesday - West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northwest early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.

Wednesday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.

Thursday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Croswell, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 240047 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 847 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms around through tonight, with a low chance of activity on Wednesday as well.

* Dry weather returns Thursday into the weekend as temperatures gradually warm each day, pushing to near 90 degrees on Sunday.

AVIATION

A well organized low pressure system is taking advantage of late day instability for the ongoing thunderstorm pattern this evening.
Clusters of storms continue both along the leading prefrontal trough and outflow combinations and along the cold front as it moves across Lower Mi tonight. Intensity fades with the loss of surface based instability while the mid level trough at least supports showers and a few rumbles of thunder through the late night and into Wednesday morning. Wind direction veers southwest to northwest with the frontal passage, first at mbS early in the morning and toward mid afternoon at DTW. A few hours of MVFR ceiling are likely post front until mixing into VFR Wednesday afternoon.

For DTW/D21 Convection... Thunderstorms focused along a prefrontal trough and lake breeze hybrid this evening transition into a shower and weaker storm pattern late tonight ahead of an inbound cold front. Passage of the front keeps showers and a rumble of thunder possible Wednesday morning as well. Passage of the actual cold front is projected for the 18Z-21Z time period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling aob 5000 with storms and then late tonight and Wednesday morning with the cold front.

* High for thunderstorms this evening, moderate late tonight, and low Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024

DISCUSSION...

Amplified, but a progressive upper level summer pattern over the northern CONUS. Longwave trough swinging through over the next couple of days, followed by 500 mb ridge (~590 DAM) building into the Great Lakes region over the Weekend.

Weak surface flow with pockets of low level convergence, enhanced by some lake breeze interaction this afternoon. Surfaces capes of 1500- 2000 J/kg with no cin will likely be conducive to generating scattered showers/thunderstorms, but skinny cape and effective shear under 25 knots hindering storms from being severe. However, downdraft capes of 800+ J/kg could allow a cell or two to be strong/approach severe with a wind gust however. In addition, the line of showers approaching from the west likely holds together (northern areas) as subtle jet streak tracks through far northern Lower Michigan. Adjusted pops for Tri-Cities region into numerous category.

Modest height falls to swing through the Central Great Lakes tonight/Wednesday morning with the surface reflection/low moving through Central Lower Michigan/Lake Huron. Trends with the surface cold front/moisture axis moving through are faster, and by the time the front re-fires with diurnal instability tomorrow, likely occuring mostly south of the Michigan border. It appears just chance pops at best are warranted. Actually thinking higher pops are warranted tonight with the sufficient instability (showalter index -2 C) spreading in, increase in low level jet (~30 kts), along with the moisture advection/height falls arriving. NBM pops also support this, specifically the northern half of the CWA
Mid level lapse rates embedded within the instability axis look to be modest (5.8- 6.0 C/KM) and 0-6 KM bulk shear is not terribly strong (~30 knots), thus no severe storms expected.

Upper level northwest confluent flow/subsidence takes hold for Thursday/Friday. Even with the possibility of subtle upper level disturbance embedded within the northwest flow tracking through, no showers expected, as the airmass appears to be too dry with little to no instability around.

Warming up over the weekend, with 850 mb temps of 15 C Saturday and 18 C on Sunday (per Euro), suggesting highs in the lower to mid 80s and approaching 90 degrees on Sunday, as winds veer to the south- southwest.

MARINE...

Winds of 5-10 knots in place over the lakes today with gusts up to 15 knots. Low pressure system has progressed into the area more quickly than expected today elevating chances for showers and storms over Lake Huron tonight through early Wednesday morning. Behind the system winds veer northwesterly and pick up to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20. High pressure will fill in behind and drop wind speeds back down to 5 knots Friday and through the weekend.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45209 11 mi55 minSSW 5.8 74°F 72°F1 ft30.0268°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 13 mi57 minS 7G8 74°F 29.9761°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 14 mi57 min 74°F 29.98
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 40 mi45 minSSE 7.8 73°F 71°F1 ft30.01
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi45 minW 8G12 67°F 30.10
45147 - Lake St Clair 49 mi45 minWNW 21 71°F 73°F1 ft30.04


Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KPHN ST CLAIR COUNTY INTL,MI 16 sm29 minSW 0310 smMostly Cloudy Lt Rain 70°F63°F78%30.05
CYZR SARNIA CHRIS HADFIELD,CN 18 sm44 minSSW 049 smOvercast72°F66°F83%30.02


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