Boscobel, WI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boscobel, WI

June 18, 2024 5:18 PM CDT (22:18 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 8:44 PM
Moonrise 4:46 PM   Moonset 1:41 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boscobel, WI
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Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 181858 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 158 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread showers/storms will spread east this evening with localized rainfall amounts of 1-2"+ and damaging winds the primary threats, especially west of the Mississippi River.

- Periods of showers/storms continue over the next several days.
Localized higher rain amounts and the cumulative impact of multiple rounds of rain will lead to some river rises and possible flood concerns.

- Drier, somewhat cooler conditions expected for early next week, although this break may be short-lived.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

This Evening-Tonight:

Early this afternoon a shortwave trough was ejecting into the northern high plains with a cold front extending southwest from a surface low in northern Minnesota. Ahead of the front a very warm to hot, humid airmass persists across the region with gusty southerly flow. Some gusts around 40 mph could occur through the afternoon for open, unsheltered areas to the west. In addition, a few showers/storms cannot be ruled out through the afternoon/early evening as broad low-level moisture transport interacts with an uncapped atmosphere.

The higher storm chances (>80%) arrive towards evening as the front approaches. With a deep warm cloud layer and stronger deep layer shear lagging the front, storms likely will have the tendency to become outflow dominant as they progress towards the Mississippi River through the evening, with localized higher wind gusts (especially with any bowing segments) and high rain rates the primary hazards. The hail/tornado tornado risks, while non-zero, are considerably lower. The HRRR 24-hr PMM rainfall amounts exceed 1" for some areas west of the Mississippi River with low (10-30%) chances for 2" or more. Low-level shear will be stronger, but overall, confidence in sustained, balanced cold pool development is lower given the weaker deep layer shear. As a result, the highest risk for severe storms likely will be within the first few hours of initiation near and west of I-35, which agrees well with the area of SPC's slight (level 2 of 5)
risk area today, and with the mid-level HRRR UH fields.

Wednesday-Friday:

The front will sag south on Wednesday and slosh north/south through late in the work week with an unsettled weather pattern continuing.
Wednesday will be cooler and cloudier in the post-frontal airmass with little instability present to support much of a thunder threat, but some showers are possible. The boundary likely will remain close to the area within southwest flow leading to periods of showers/storms through Friday and potential for localized heavy rains. Global ensembles continue to indicate 40 to 60 percent chances for 2" of rain this week (through Friday) from northeast Iowa into central Wisconsin, although mesoscale details will impact where higher rain amounts occur. See the hydrology section below for more information as flood risk could increase with repetitive rounds of storms.

Saturday:

There is a somewhat stronger signal for a deeper trough and cold front to pass across the Upper Midwest this weekend. Ahead of the front, temps may climb back well into the 80s late this week, although frontal placement/timing and associated cloud/precip trends lead to higher forecast spread. Some strong/severe storm risk is possible ahead of the trough with sufficient flow on the southern flank of the trough and potential for destabilization ahead of the front, but considerable uncertainty exists in the evolution of this system yet. The GEFS-ML probabilities show 15% chances for severe weather centered on Wisconsin on Saturday.

Sunday-Tuesday:

In the wake of the frontal passage, global model guidance indicates at least a transient period of drier weather comes early next week as the flow transitions northwest and a somewhat drier airmass builds in. However, stronger mid-level flow across the northern US into next week within a quasizonal flow could result in a continued active pattern with periodic shortwave passages and shower/storm chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A cold front, with showers and storms associated, will progress through the region during the evening and overnight hours bringing MVFR/IFR conditions along with it. A few showers and storms are possible (15-25% chance) ahead of the front this afternoon, however little consensus on how these may manifest is seen in recent short-range guidance. As showers and storms move out of the region, low-level post frontal clouds will envelop the area during the morning hours on Wednesday bringing MVFR/IFR cigs as shown in the 18.16z NBH guidance before mixing out by the late morning and afternoon. Southerly winds will start the TAF period at 15-25 kts with gusts approaching 35 kts in unsheltered areas of northeast IA and southeast MN. As storms approach during the evening hours today, higher wind gusts will be possible. With the passage of the cold front during the overnight, winds will diminish to around 5-10 kts by Wednesday morning and will be generally west/northwesterly.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Multiple rounds of storms capable of heavy rain remain in the forecast for tonight and then from Thursday through Saturday.
Localized rainfall amounts of 1-2+" are possible with each round of storms. There exists a 50 percent chance that any given location in southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin will see storm total rainfall amounts exceed 3 inches by Saturday and a 20 percent chance of those totals exceeding 5 inches. Some of these areas have received 2 to 4" of rain over the past 3 days and will be more susceptible than areas to the south and east to flooding. Each successive round of rain will increase the risk for flash flooding and river flooding. River flooding concerns, especially along the Mississippi River and its Minnesota tributaries will need to be monitored closely.
Many locations along the Mississippi River will approach flood stage towards next weekend (50-70% chance) if rainfall unfolds as forecast.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KOVS BOSCOBEL,WI 2 sm25 minS 07G1910 smMostly Cloudy90°F72°F56%29.83
KPDC PRAIRIE DU CHIEN MUNI,WI 24 sm23 minS 14G1910 smPartly Cloudy90°F70°F52%29.81
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La Crosse, WI,




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