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FXUS63 KARX 102038 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 238 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Conditions continue to trend seasonably warm and dry for most of the week ahead.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 228 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

QUIET WEATHER WEEK AHEAD:

The upper-level trough responsible for yesterday's light snow event continues to slowly shift off to the east leaving the Upper Mississippi Valley in a northwesterly upper-level flow pattern resulting in near-seasonable temperatures through Tuesday. High pressure builds in overhead for the second half of the week helping usher in mild temperatures, dry conditions, and mostly sunny skies.

The next chance for sensible weather comes late in the week/early this weekend as a shortwave trough slides across the Great Lakes Region. There is an increase in the uncertainty with this event as major differences for the timing, location, and strength of the trough can be seen between the global models. A decrease in value and coverage of NBM PoPs for this time period occurred as a result. However, about 50% of EPS, GEFS, and CMC members continue to produce light precipitation (< .25") across portions of the forecast area late Friday into Saturday. Perhaps another low QPF, high PoPs event is on the horizon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

A blanket of MVFR to locally IFR stratus persists across the Upper Mississippi Valley late this morning. Although recent GOES visible imagery has indicated signs of thinning in the cloud field, confidence is low that clouds will completely clear until the ridge axis works east tonight into Monday. NBM-based MVFR probabilities remain high (60-90%) through mid to late afternoon, but generally remain moderate (45-55%) this evening through Monday morning with lower (20-40%) probabilities for IFR ceilings tonight. Trended towards a more pessimistic ceiling forecast, but afternoon trends in the cloud shield evolution will be watched. NW winds will become southerly on Monday generally near or below 10 kts as the surface ridge slides east.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

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La Crosse, WI,