Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boscobel, WI
March 28, 2024 8:51 PM CDT (01:51 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:49 AM Sunset 7:25 PM Moonrise 10:15 PM Moonset 7:07 AM |
Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 282214 AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 514 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Several Degrees Warmer Through Friday With Precipitation Chances Returning Friday Evening Into Saturday Morning
- Wintry Mix Likely In Central Wisconsin Through The Overnight Hours, Freezing Rain and Sleet Potential Remains Possible In Smaller Area of Northeast Taylor County
- Low, Minimal Precipitation Chances This Weekend, Increasing Early Next Week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Synoptic Setup & Temperatures Through Friday Afternoon:
An upper level trough, associated and downstream of the closed low off the Pacific Northwest Coast on GOES Water Vapor imagery this afternoon, is expected to further separate and lift through the Northern Plains through Friday, providing local precipitation chances Friday night. The closed low is completely wrapped, as GOES derived upper level winds are acting to separate the northern stream. This (northern) perturbation will combat broad upper level anticyclonic flow. As seems to be the theme, or simply a Baader-Meinhof effect, primary impacts expected to skirt north & south of the forecast area: balderdash.
The strong anticyclonic flow and impending precipitation will advect a warmer airmass through Friday afternoon. While tapping into the highest temperature airmass will remain to the south, temperatures will be several degrees above today.
Initial Precipitation Chances Friday Evening:
Northern precipitation bears a northeastern trajectory as the enhanced subtropical jet, poking into Southern California on GOES 17 derived winds this afternoon, will shunt this synoptic forcing northward. Current confidence in long term, global ensembles (GEFS/EPS 28.12Z) places resultant upper level convergence initially. The weakening, lifting forcing will initially provide meager precipitation chances along the increased isentropic upglide and warm frontal boundary. This initial wave struggles to initially saturate farther south, placing Medford, WI with highest confidence locally for any precipitation chances. With the drier air, have held off slightly for precipitation onset compared to National Blend, delaying into the nighttime.
Higher Precipitation Chances Overnight Friday Into Saturday:
Irregardless, the resident more moist, warm airmass resides across the forecast area into the nighttime, fueling subsequent precipitation chances. The responsible follow-up forcing in the form of double barrel surface lows churn across the Upper Mississippi River Valley through the overnight. The northern low occludes the warm sector while the southern low forms along the accompanying triple point, following the low level baroclinic boundary. As a result, best precipitation chances slide along our northwestern and far southern peripheries into Saturday morning. Have slightly accounted for this in afternoon forecast package, using higher confidence within high resolution, short term model guidance for highest PoPs northwest, south, and east of the local forecast area.
Thunder Chances:
The southern stream will contain some MUCAPE and thunder firing off the nose of the low level jet. The shunting of the low level jet nose and to the south and overnight timing of best forcing locally limits confidence and coverage locally. Have continued with National Blend Probability of Thunder which dabbles Thunder chances along our southern edge primarily in Grant County, WI.
Potential Wintry Mix Remaining In Taylor County:
Precipitation type remains a challenge locally in northern counties of central Wisconsin. The closure of the warm sector drops surface temperatures quickly below freezing whilst moisture and warm nose lingers off the deck. In other words, discerning the mesoscale timing and location of the warmer, above freezing air as well as lowest level, below freezing cold air remains in question. High resolution soundings differentiate in timing by a couple of hours as well into early Saturday morning. Daytime high temperatures through Friday which will also be of utmost impact to freezing road potential. Have also added slight mention of Ice Pellets as negative energy of low level cold air may be enough to refreeze while upper level ice remains. However, as wee hours of Saturday morning linger on, upper upper and mid level subsidence increases confidence in removal of upper level ice and Freezing Rain potential.
Therefore, have continued mention and accumulation in northeastern Taylor County into Saturday morning.
This Weekend & Early Next Week Precipitation Chances:
The Friday separation of streams provides some disagreement in forecast details through the weekend into next week. The initially closed low wobbles through the stages of a well-pronounced trough into the Southern Plains this weekend before eventually rejoining parent upper level flow mid next week. Therefore, increased precipitation chances return early next week as the trough rejoins the upper level flow. Highest confidence for mid level heights <540 decameters remains 50-80% along and east of the Upper Mississippi River Valley. There is also low confidence for minimal precipitation chances through the weekend as upper level heights combat troughing and ridging across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 514 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
CIGS: mostly SCT high clouds into Fri afternoon, although could be a few hours BKN 8-10kft in the morning. Cigs start to settle in moving into the evening, dropping to lower VFR with an increasing potential for MVFR overnight. These lower cigs could then hang around for the better part of Sat.
WX/vsby: upper level shortwave trough set to slip across the region on Friday will bring areas/scattered showers to the region (rain south, wintry mix-snow north). However, current track and the outlay of the various forcing mechanisms and moisture transport suggests that impacts to the TAF sites could be minimal. Latest meso model guidance hold most development til around 00z Sat, generally north of I-94 with another focus over eastern IA/northern IL. In these scenarios, KLSE might have a few hour shot for -shra while KRST stays dry. For now will trend the forecast dry and adjust if later model runs suggest different.
WINDS: northwest winds light easterly overnight. Winds should start to pick up toward 12z Fri, generally east/southeast through the day Friday. A few gusts possible, moreso KRST.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 514 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Several Degrees Warmer Through Friday With Precipitation Chances Returning Friday Evening Into Saturday Morning
- Wintry Mix Likely In Central Wisconsin Through The Overnight Hours, Freezing Rain and Sleet Potential Remains Possible In Smaller Area of Northeast Taylor County
- Low, Minimal Precipitation Chances This Weekend, Increasing Early Next Week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Synoptic Setup & Temperatures Through Friday Afternoon:
An upper level trough, associated and downstream of the closed low off the Pacific Northwest Coast on GOES Water Vapor imagery this afternoon, is expected to further separate and lift through the Northern Plains through Friday, providing local precipitation chances Friday night. The closed low is completely wrapped, as GOES derived upper level winds are acting to separate the northern stream. This (northern) perturbation will combat broad upper level anticyclonic flow. As seems to be the theme, or simply a Baader-Meinhof effect, primary impacts expected to skirt north & south of the forecast area: balderdash.
The strong anticyclonic flow and impending precipitation will advect a warmer airmass through Friday afternoon. While tapping into the highest temperature airmass will remain to the south, temperatures will be several degrees above today.
Initial Precipitation Chances Friday Evening:
Northern precipitation bears a northeastern trajectory as the enhanced subtropical jet, poking into Southern California on GOES 17 derived winds this afternoon, will shunt this synoptic forcing northward. Current confidence in long term, global ensembles (GEFS/EPS 28.12Z) places resultant upper level convergence initially. The weakening, lifting forcing will initially provide meager precipitation chances along the increased isentropic upglide and warm frontal boundary. This initial wave struggles to initially saturate farther south, placing Medford, WI with highest confidence locally for any precipitation chances. With the drier air, have held off slightly for precipitation onset compared to National Blend, delaying into the nighttime.
Higher Precipitation Chances Overnight Friday Into Saturday:
Irregardless, the resident more moist, warm airmass resides across the forecast area into the nighttime, fueling subsequent precipitation chances. The responsible follow-up forcing in the form of double barrel surface lows churn across the Upper Mississippi River Valley through the overnight. The northern low occludes the warm sector while the southern low forms along the accompanying triple point, following the low level baroclinic boundary. As a result, best precipitation chances slide along our northwestern and far southern peripheries into Saturday morning. Have slightly accounted for this in afternoon forecast package, using higher confidence within high resolution, short term model guidance for highest PoPs northwest, south, and east of the local forecast area.
Thunder Chances:
The southern stream will contain some MUCAPE and thunder firing off the nose of the low level jet. The shunting of the low level jet nose and to the south and overnight timing of best forcing locally limits confidence and coverage locally. Have continued with National Blend Probability of Thunder which dabbles Thunder chances along our southern edge primarily in Grant County, WI.
Potential Wintry Mix Remaining In Taylor County:
Precipitation type remains a challenge locally in northern counties of central Wisconsin. The closure of the warm sector drops surface temperatures quickly below freezing whilst moisture and warm nose lingers off the deck. In other words, discerning the mesoscale timing and location of the warmer, above freezing air as well as lowest level, below freezing cold air remains in question. High resolution soundings differentiate in timing by a couple of hours as well into early Saturday morning. Daytime high temperatures through Friday which will also be of utmost impact to freezing road potential. Have also added slight mention of Ice Pellets as negative energy of low level cold air may be enough to refreeze while upper level ice remains. However, as wee hours of Saturday morning linger on, upper upper and mid level subsidence increases confidence in removal of upper level ice and Freezing Rain potential.
Therefore, have continued mention and accumulation in northeastern Taylor County into Saturday morning.
This Weekend & Early Next Week Precipitation Chances:
The Friday separation of streams provides some disagreement in forecast details through the weekend into next week. The initially closed low wobbles through the stages of a well-pronounced trough into the Southern Plains this weekend before eventually rejoining parent upper level flow mid next week. Therefore, increased precipitation chances return early next week as the trough rejoins the upper level flow. Highest confidence for mid level heights <540 decameters remains 50-80% along and east of the Upper Mississippi River Valley. There is also low confidence for minimal precipitation chances through the weekend as upper level heights combat troughing and ridging across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 514 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
CIGS: mostly SCT high clouds into Fri afternoon, although could be a few hours BKN 8-10kft in the morning. Cigs start to settle in moving into the evening, dropping to lower VFR with an increasing potential for MVFR overnight. These lower cigs could then hang around for the better part of Sat.
WX/vsby: upper level shortwave trough set to slip across the region on Friday will bring areas/scattered showers to the region (rain south, wintry mix-snow north). However, current track and the outlay of the various forcing mechanisms and moisture transport suggests that impacts to the TAF sites could be minimal. Latest meso model guidance hold most development til around 00z Sat, generally north of I-94 with another focus over eastern IA/northern IL. In these scenarios, KLSE might have a few hour shot for -shra while KRST stays dry. For now will trend the forecast dry and adjust if later model runs suggest different.
WINDS: northwest winds light easterly overnight. Winds should start to pick up toward 12z Fri, generally east/southeast through the day Friday. A few gusts possible, moreso KRST.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KOVS BOSCOBEL,WI | 2 sm | 32 min | calm | 3 sm | Clear | Haze | 36°F | 19°F | 51% | 30.05 |
KPDC PRAIRIE DU CHIEN MUNI,WI | 24 sm | 16 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 37°F | 19°F | 48% | 30.05 |
La Crosse, WI,
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