Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boscobel, WI
May 13, 2024 2:43 PM CDT (19:43 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:40 AM Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 9:19 AM Moonset 12:26 AM |
FXUS63 KARX 131737 AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1237 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Wildfire smoke impacts continue this morning, with hazy/milky skies persisting into Tue
- Rain chances across the far south today, but most locations will stay dry
- Next rain chances move in Wed night/Thu with unsettled pattern into the weekend
DISCUSSION
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
* SMOKE: improving this morning, more milky skies possible Tue
The HRRR and RAP show improvement through the morning in near sfc concentrations. Vsbys per latest sfc obs are mostly very good with 6+ miles with just some spotty 3-5SM. Air Quality Alerts continue for MN and much of WI this morning.
The RAP sinks more smoke from Canadian forest fires southward across the region tonight/Tue, but holds most of this a loft (above 8 kft).
Near sfc smoke impacts are favored to hold well west. This suggests a milky sky for Tue but likely less impacts in sfc air quality.
* RAIN CHANCES TODAY? Trending southward...
Churning upper level trough/low was trekking slowly east across the southern plains early this morning. Spiraling bands rotating counterclockwise around the trough were interacting with a west-east running cold front that was easing southward across the local area (extending from the MN/IA border into northeast WI at early morning). Areas of showers and a few storms was the result, the bulk of which were located over IA. Track of the upper level trough, coupled with where the moisture transport/instability pool is progged to layout, suggests the bulk of the continued rain chances will hold across IA and northern IL, but northern fringes could spread into farther southern WI. There has been a trend pulling the rain chances farther south over the past couple days, and meso models continue this.
* WED NIGHT/THU: rain chances, but how widespread?
The long range guidance continues to suggest a shortwave trough in the northern portion of the flow will shift across the northern plains eastward over the upper mississippi river valley Wed night into Thu. Meanwhile, a piece of the energy in the southern portion of the flow looks to kick out of the southern plains and across the mid mississippi river valley during this time. Do these shortwaves merge in this split flow scenario? Stay separate? The GEFS members favor keeping them separate. Rain chances would then have to rely heavily on moisture transport, instability ahead of an associated sfc front.
The EPS, on the otherhand, is a bit more stout with the northern stream shortwave, dropping it farther south...thus producing a bit more QPF and higher probabilities to get wet regionwide. Not clear on how this will shake out, but the models have been consistent in producing at least scattered showers/storms for this period...and model blend continues to produce chance to low end likelies (30-60%)
for rain potential. Will stick with that for now.
* END OF THE WORK WEEK/WEEKEND: more rain chances, uncertainties on when/where
Progressive upper level flow persists for the end of the week with the GEFS and EPS promising quick moving shortwave ridges/troughs.
Timing, location differences crop up (not unexpected), lowering confidence considerably on the resulting sensible weather outcomes. As it has the past few days, the differences in the ensemble members of each model suite cause the NBM (model blend) to spread out rain chances over several days - which in reality would likely be focused to smaller periods. Will hold with the blend which has low end pops (20-30%) through the weekend.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
MVFR visibilities from haze and wildfire smoke will continue into this evening and then become VFR overnight. Ceilings will be VFR. Winds will be northwest this afternoon shifting to north tonight and northeast on Tuesday. Wind speeds will be generally less than 10 knots.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM CDT tonight for MNZ079- 086>088-094>096.
IA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1237 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Wildfire smoke impacts continue this morning, with hazy/milky skies persisting into Tue
- Rain chances across the far south today, but most locations will stay dry
- Next rain chances move in Wed night/Thu with unsettled pattern into the weekend
DISCUSSION
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
* SMOKE: improving this morning, more milky skies possible Tue
The HRRR and RAP show improvement through the morning in near sfc concentrations. Vsbys per latest sfc obs are mostly very good with 6+ miles with just some spotty 3-5SM. Air Quality Alerts continue for MN and much of WI this morning.
The RAP sinks more smoke from Canadian forest fires southward across the region tonight/Tue, but holds most of this a loft (above 8 kft).
Near sfc smoke impacts are favored to hold well west. This suggests a milky sky for Tue but likely less impacts in sfc air quality.
* RAIN CHANCES TODAY? Trending southward...
Churning upper level trough/low was trekking slowly east across the southern plains early this morning. Spiraling bands rotating counterclockwise around the trough were interacting with a west-east running cold front that was easing southward across the local area (extending from the MN/IA border into northeast WI at early morning). Areas of showers and a few storms was the result, the bulk of which were located over IA. Track of the upper level trough, coupled with where the moisture transport/instability pool is progged to layout, suggests the bulk of the continued rain chances will hold across IA and northern IL, but northern fringes could spread into farther southern WI. There has been a trend pulling the rain chances farther south over the past couple days, and meso models continue this.
* WED NIGHT/THU: rain chances, but how widespread?
The long range guidance continues to suggest a shortwave trough in the northern portion of the flow will shift across the northern plains eastward over the upper mississippi river valley Wed night into Thu. Meanwhile, a piece of the energy in the southern portion of the flow looks to kick out of the southern plains and across the mid mississippi river valley during this time. Do these shortwaves merge in this split flow scenario? Stay separate? The GEFS members favor keeping them separate. Rain chances would then have to rely heavily on moisture transport, instability ahead of an associated sfc front.
The EPS, on the otherhand, is a bit more stout with the northern stream shortwave, dropping it farther south...thus producing a bit more QPF and higher probabilities to get wet regionwide. Not clear on how this will shake out, but the models have been consistent in producing at least scattered showers/storms for this period...and model blend continues to produce chance to low end likelies (30-60%)
for rain potential. Will stick with that for now.
* END OF THE WORK WEEK/WEEKEND: more rain chances, uncertainties on when/where
Progressive upper level flow persists for the end of the week with the GEFS and EPS promising quick moving shortwave ridges/troughs.
Timing, location differences crop up (not unexpected), lowering confidence considerably on the resulting sensible weather outcomes. As it has the past few days, the differences in the ensemble members of each model suite cause the NBM (model blend) to spread out rain chances over several days - which in reality would likely be focused to smaller periods. Will hold with the blend which has low end pops (20-30%) through the weekend.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
MVFR visibilities from haze and wildfire smoke will continue into this evening and then become VFR overnight. Ceilings will be VFR. Winds will be northwest this afternoon shifting to north tonight and northeast on Tuesday. Wind speeds will be generally less than 10 knots.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM CDT tonight for MNZ079- 086>088-094>096.
IA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KOVS BOSCOBEL,WI | 2 sm | 50 min | calm | 7 sm | Overcast | 68°F | 55°F | 64% | 29.77 | |
| KPDC PRAIRIE DU CHIEN MUNI,WI | 24 sm | 28 min | NW 05 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 68°F | 52°F | 56% | 29.76 |
La Crosse, WI,
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