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FXUS61 KALY 300516 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1216 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Fair weather and chilly temperatures continue tonight. High pressure along the East Coast will bring tranquil conditions and slightly milder temperatures for Thursday. A fast moving storm system will bring rain for Friday, possibly mixed with snow across some higher terrain areas.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 1216 AM EST...Upper level shortwave and associated surface trough is moving across the region for early this morning. Although moisture is limited, IR satellite imagery shows that a solid band of clouds has now expanded across nearly the entire area. These clouds will be in place for a good portion of the night, but some clearing is expected for the late night hours and towards daybreak for southern and eastern areas, as the trough starts heading eastward into New England. While a few flurries can't be ruled out over the western Adirondacks over the next few hours, most areas will be dry overnight, as moisture is too limited for widespread snow showers.

With the clouds in place, temps won't be as cool as recent nights, but still fairly chilly. Most areas are already into the 20s and lows will range from the upper teens for the high terrain to the mid 20s in valley areas.



SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Building high pressure over the Carolinas and southwest flow in the low and mid-levels will bring a return to more seasonable temperatures and continued dry weather on Thursday. A weak cold front will approach the area from the northwest on Thursday night, but wash out with rain/snow showers limited to areas of lake enhancement over the western slopes of the Adirondacks.

A more robust southern stream shortwave and associated surface low will track northeastward across the region Friday.
Precipitation type is still largely expected to be widespread rain, with snow limited to higher elevations north of I-90. As the system exits, some precipitation may linger through Friday night into Saturday morning, although additional chances for precipitation will be possible through the day on Saturday as additional upper vorticity impulses track northeastward with the flow over the region.

Temperatures through the period look to remain near seasonal normals, with highs in the mid to upper 30 in high terrain and low to mid 40s at lower elevations Thursday through Saturday.
Nighttime lows look to stay in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the region Thursday night through Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Unsettled weather expected during the period Sunday through Wednesday. Upper energy approaches from the west Sunday and the upper dynamics, low level forcing and moisture will result in mostly a cold rain across the region with higher elevation snow or a mix of rain and snow. Highs Sunday in the 40s with some upper 30s higher terrain.

Steadier precipitation exits through the day Monday as brief short wave flat upper ridging tracks through ahead of trailing upper energy, again approaching from the west within broad upper troughing in eastern North America. Broad +PNA in western North America supports this overall upper pattern, again, creating broad upper troughing in eastern North America, and continued unsettled weather.
There is some spread in long range guidance/ensembles and some deeper cold advection could build into our region through Sunday night and Monday.

Loose consensus in long range guidance/ensembles that it will remain cloudy Monday with steadier precipitation decreasing in coverage.
There are some hints in a minority of sources of guidance that another organized upper impulse, low level forcing and deep moisture that could produce another period of steadier and heavier precipitation Monday, with more snow than rain, but we will watch how all the guidance changes and adjusts as we get closer to next week. Very subtle changes in timing and storm track could result in more snow than rain in our region Monday into Tuesday but too early to tell. Highs Monday in the 40s with upper 30s in higher terrain, but colder if the deeper cold air does build in.

Broad consensus that unsettled weather continues Tuesday, with an organized system somewhere along the eastern U.S. coast. There is a lot of spread in long range guidance/ensembles and the primary upper dynamics, low level forcing and moisture could track mainly south of our region, but there are some members suggesting a more northerly track. So, keeping chances of rain in most areas Tuesday into Tuesday night with snow or a mix in higher elevations, but again, stay tuned about the details of where any snow and rain may set up.
Highs Tuesday in the lower to mid 40s with lower to mid 30s higher terrain, or colder depending on the storm track.

Improving weather Wednesday with some potential lake effect clouds in our region, and scattered lake effect snow shower activity into the southern Adirondacks, maybe isolated to scattered upslope showers and snow showers into the southern Green Mountains and Berkshires. Highs Wednesday in the mid 30s to around 40 and upper 20s to lower 30s higher terrain.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 06z Friday... VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites early this morning with some lower to mid-level clouds present across the area. Lower to mid-level ceilings look to stay prevalent throughout the overnight period with moisture being trapped underneath a mid- level inversion. However, clouds will begin to mix out later this morning, eroding ceilings and yielding a mainly clear day.

Winds throughout the period will prevail mainly out of the southwest at sustained speeds ranging from 4-8 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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