Manchester, VT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manchester, VT

June 23, 2024 12:34 AM EDT (04:34 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:09 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM
Moonrise 10:37 PM   Moonset 6:20 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, VT
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Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 230147 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 947 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

SYNOPSIS
It will remain warm and muggy through this evening with some showers and thunderstorms around. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy downpours. With the warm and humid air mass still in place, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Sunday, with some of those storms potentially being severe. A few showers may linger into Monday, but cooler and less humid air will briefly be returning to the region, before another warm and humid air mass returns towards the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Showers and scattered thunderstorms tracking into the Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills, weakening as they track east. A weak and diffuse backdoor boundary dropped south and southwest through our region today, aided by the earlier convection. So, this diffuse, pseudo warm front may hold in place through the night, as convection tracks east and weakens. Still, locally heavy rain and thunder and lightning through the night, perhaps anchoring this diffuse boundary until daytime tomorrow, when boundary layer winds from the west and southwest strengthen and mixing takes place.

The atmosphere in eastern NY is a little more stable than in central NY because of the light north to southeast low level flow, so we will just keep watching the trends as the storms move east. The positions of the pseudo warm front, any thermal pre frontal trough and the cold front tomorrow could make for a complicated severe weather potential. Just minor adjustments to sky cover, temperatures and the rain chances through this evening.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A surface boundary is draped across central parts of the forecast area. North of this boundary, lots of cloud cover is in place, along with temps in the 60s to mid 70s and dewpoints mainly in the 60s as well. South of the boundary, there are more breaks of sun, with temps well into the 80s and dewpoints around 70 F as well. This front has been fairly stationary and stalled through the day, but may start lifting northward as a warm front by this evening into tonight.

Within the warm sector, a broken line of convection has been impacting areas from the mid Hudson Valley across the southern Taconics and into NW CT. Most of this activity has been sub- severe, but has been producing brief gusty winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning. There have been some signs of hail aloft from time to time, but the warm and humid air mass in place has likely melted a lot of hail before reaching the surface.

Over the next few hours, the convection impacting our far southeastern areas will be pushing into New England. CAMs suggest that there should be a break in the activity behind these storms. However, some additional showers and t-storms may develop across central New York and the Southern Tier of NY for this evening and spread into our area for the late evening hours and/or first part of the overnight. With the loss of daytime heating, instability will be waning and nocturnal cooling will help allow a surface inversion to form. This should keep any of this convection from being severe, but some downpours and thunder can be expected with this elevated-convection. Outside of this convection, some low level stratus and/or fog is expected to develop thanks to the recent rainfall and humid low levels in place.

Lows will range from the mid 60s to low 70s across the region.
It will remain muggy and humid through the entire overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
On Sunday, any fog or low clouds should dissipate shortly after sunrise. The frontal boundary that was over the area on Saturday will have lifted northward as a warm front, putting our entire area into the warm sector. This will allow for a mostly sunny morning and temps will rapidly warm up across the entire area.
Most areas will be reaching well into the 80s on Sunday, with some low 90s in the Hudson Valley from the Capital Region on southward. In addition, dewpoints will be well into the 70s across much of the area. This will result in heat index values reaching 95 to 100 degrees across the Capital Region, mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT, where a Heat Advisory will be in effect due to an increased risk of heat related illnesses.

With the warm and humid air mass in place, MLCAPE is expected to increase to 1500-2500 J/kg across the entire area. As a strong disturbance moves across the Great Lakes and a surface cold front approaches from the west, 0-6 km bulk shear will be increasing through day to about 30 to 40 kts by the afternoon hours. With the warm front nearby, low level helicity will be rather high as well, with 0-1 km values in the 100-200 m2/s2 according to the 12z SPC HRRR, although the highest values of shear/helicity may be just northeast of the area across VT/NH.

CAMs suggest that a few rounds of broken lines of convection will be moving across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. SPC has most of the area in a slight risk for severe weather, with an enhanced risk across northeastern areas (closed to the best shear/helicity). Damaging winds and heavy downpours are the main threats, but hail and a tornado or two will be possible as well.

Showers and thunderstorms will be winding down on Sunday night as the frontal boundary crosses the area from west to east. This will allow for a much cooler and less humid air mass to move into the area for Monday. Temps will only be in the 70s on Monday and dewpoints will be coming down through the day. There still could be a few spotty showers on Monday with the upper level trough overhead, but no strong storms are expected. Clouds should finally be clearing out by Monday night with lows down into the 50s for many areas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Dry weather is expected on Tuesday with high pressure in control. With plenty of sun expected and temps aloft warming up, temps will be above normal on Tuesday with highs well into the 80s.

By Wednesday, another cold front will be approaching the area.
It will be another hot and humid air mass ahead of the front, so heat advisory criteria could be met in some valley areas with highs into the low 90s. In addition, another round of showers and t-storms will be possible ahead of the front for late in the day and some strong storms will be possible once again.

Dry weather looks to return behind this front for the late week.
It will somewhat less humid and not as hot behind the front as well, although temps may still wind up averaging above normal with highs into the 80s. Overnight lows will be more tolerable in the 50s to low 60s.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Some intervals of low clouds around 1000 feet around KGFL will hold through this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in central NY will track into our region later this evening and there are questions on the coverage when the showers and storms enter eastern NY. Based on timing on radar, there are better chances for thunderstorms at KALB, KPOU and KPSF. So including 1 hour of TEMPO for thunderstorms at those sites, while just including VCSH at KGFL. The storms should end between 04Z-06Z, then a mix of low clouds and possible fog at all TAF sites.

The intervals of low clouds will continue until around 11Z-12Z, when VFR conditions return to all TAF sites. There will be another chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon but just scattered and including VCSH at all TAF sites in the afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms could be strong to severe but too early to specify timing and strength of thunderstorms for Sunday.

Winds will be light from the northeast to east at less than 6 Kt tonight. Winds become south at 10 to 15 Kt Sunday morning and continue through the afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ064>066.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ049-050-052- 053-059-060.
MA...None.
VT...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KDDH WILLIAM H MORSE STATE,VT 21 sm40 minENE 044 smOvercast Rain Mist 70°F66°F88%29.95
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Wind History graph: DDH
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Tide / Current for Troy, Hudson River, New York
   
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Troy
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Sat -- 12:18 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:09 AM EDT     5.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:05 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:24 PM EDT     3.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
0.1
1
am
0.3
2
am
1.5
3
am
3
4
am
4.3
5
am
5.1
6
am
5.5
7
am
5.2
8
am
4.3
9
am
3.1
10
am
2.1
11
am
1.3
12
pm
0.4
1
pm
-0.1
2
pm
0.3
3
pm
1.5
4
pm
2.7
5
pm
3.4
6
pm
3.8
7
pm
3.7
8
pm
3.1
9
pm
2.1
10
pm
1.3
11
pm
0.8


Tide / Current for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:08 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     5.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:55 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:16 PM EDT     3.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Albany, New York, Tide feet
12
am
0.1
1
am
0.5
2
am
1.7
3
am
3.2
4
am
4.4
5
am
5.2
6
am
5.5
7
am
5.1
8
am
4.1
9
am
3
10
am
2
11
am
1.1
12
pm
0.3
1
pm
-0.1
2
pm
0.5
3
pm
1.7
4
pm
2.8
5
pm
3.5
6
pm
3.8
7
pm
3.7
8
pm
3
9
pm
2
10
pm
1.2
11
pm
0.8


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Albany, NY,




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