Sunrise 5:21 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 3:27 PM   Moonset 3:10 AM

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FXUS61 KALY 190052 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 852 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Clouds partially clear tonight resulting in patchy fog except in western New England and the mid-Hudson Valley where marine clouds will push inland. A stretch of very warm temperatures ensues Monday through Wednesday before a cold front arriving later in the week will lead to chances for rain showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/

As of 8:30pm, GOES16 IR shows mid-level clouds continuing across much of the Capital District into the Mohawk Valley, southern/western Adirondacks and northern/eastern Catskills.
The Upper Hudson Valley into the Taconics and parts of southern VT and Berkshire County have cleared or partially cleared which, given the weak flow and dew points in the 50s, will support patchy fog overnight. Where skies stay cloudier temperatures will stay mild in the mid to upper 60s longer this evening and we have adjusted temperatures accordingly based on cloud coverage expectations. As we approach the pre-dawn hours, still expecting a marine stratus clouds layer to push inland into western New England and parts of the mid-Hudson Valley. Some light showers may even reach the Connecticut River Valley per some high res guidance. Forecast soundings show moisture remaining trapped underneath the subsidence inversion so marine stratus likely into Sunday morning.

Previous discussion...A weak upper-level system offshore to the southeast has aided in maintaining easterly flow and a relatively cool airmass with abundant clouds upstream over much of New England. However, as upper ridging and high pressure begin to build in from the west, a clearing trend is expected through this evening, particularly from the Capital District to the north and west. Temperatures along and west of the Hudson will be near seasonal norms this afternoon, reaching highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, while conditions will be slightly cooler, in the upper 50s to mid 60s, in the Taconics and western New England.

High pressure continues to increase tonight, with patchy fog possible where skies are clearest, most likely in the Upper Hudson and Mohawk Valleys, and within sheltered locales in the southern Adirondacks. Light rain showers or drizzle may persist in the Connecticut River Valley thanks to moist, onshore flow.
Temperatures fall to overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Upper ridging and surface high pressure continue to build into the beginning of the workweek, yielding dry weather, clearing skies, and a warming trend through the period.
Temperatures will rise well above normal, reaching highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s beneath partly cloudy skies on Sunday, and mid 70s to mid 80s beneath mostly sunny skies on Monday.
Overnight lows similarly trend upward despite favorable radiative cooling conditions, from the upper 40s to mid 50s on Sunday night to widespread 50s across the region on Monday night as surface dewpoints trend upward with developing southerly to southwesterly flow.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Upper ridging over the region Tuesday and Wednesday with summer like temperatures. Strong upper impulse tracks across southern Canada and the Great Lakes later Wednesday through Thursday and there is considerable spread in sources of guidance/ensembles as to the track and timing of the upper impulse and associated cold front.

Some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could reach the southern Adirondacks later Tuesday afternoon. Then, some scattered thunderstorms are possible along a pre frontal low level trough in our region Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Highs Tuesday well into the 80s with around 80 higher terrain. Highs Wednesday in the 80s with near 90 Hudson Valley and lower 80s higher terrain. Heat index values will be near actual temperatures since no extreme humidity is expected ahead of the cold front.

The low level forcing ahead of the cold front is in question, depending on how deep the cold advection will be behind the cold front. Low level jet energy will be relatively strong but mainly westerly and deep shear will be enough for some potential strong thunderstorms. Instability ahead of the cold front should be considerable but if the timing of the cold front is Wednesday night to Thursday morning, then instability will be minimized. Still too early to tell but again, strong thunderstorms possible but to early to determine the potential for and/or magnitude of severe weather.

Cooler and drier weather Friday. Highs Thursday, timing the front with a bit of an earlier frontal passage, in the upper 70s to lower 80s with around 70 southern Adirondacks. Highs Friday in the mid 70s to near 80 with mid 60s to lower 70s higher terrain.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions through at least 06 UTC at all terminals.
However, thanks to clearing at GFL for much of the night, patchy fog is likely tonight, especially by the pre-dawn hours. We therefore included a TEMPO group for MVFR visibility by 08 - 12 UTC. MVFR conditions are also possible for PSF and POU by or shortly after 09 UTC as a marine stratus cloud layer pushes inland resulting in ceilings dropping to around 2 - 2.5kft. ALB should be far inland enough to avoid MVFR ceilings. Any fog that develops at GFL should burn off by 12 UTC thanks to the strong May sun angle.

MVFR cigs at PSF and POU likely linger through at least 18 UTC as moisture remains trapped underneath the subsidence inversion.
However, cig improvements should occur by 18 - 21 UTC with PSF likely improving last.

Light and variable winds tonight shift out of the east - northeast by 15 - 18 UTC and become sustained around 4-7kts at terminals.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperature for May 20:

Albany: 91 in 1962 Glens Falls: 90 in 1975 Poughkeepsie: 91 in 1975

Record High Temperature for May 21:

Albany: 92 in 1941 Glens Falls: 93 in 1921 Poughkeepsie: 95 in 1996

Record High Temperature for May 22:

Albany: 97 in 1911 Glens Falls: 98 in 1911 Poughkeepsie: 98 in 1941

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
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Sat -- 02:08 AM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:41 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:16 PM EDT     4.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:04 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Albany
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Sat -- 02:00 AM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:31 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:08 PM EDT     4.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:54 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

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