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LOZ044 Expires:202312061630;;988497 Fzus51 Kbuf 060848 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 348 am est Wed dec 6 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-061630- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 348 am est Wed dec 6 2023
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Snow showers likely early, then a chance of snow showers late this morning. A chance of snow and rain showers early this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Light snow likely overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Light snow and rain likely in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of rain and snow in the evening, then a chance of rain overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 061449 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 949 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

SYNOPSIS
A steady light snow will taper off to lake effect snow showers during the day today. Another weak system moves through on Thursday, which may bring additional light snow to the area.
Temperatures then significantly warm up Friday through the weekend. A stronger storm will impact the region Sunday into Monday, with the potential to bring gusty winds and a soaking rain.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
945 AM Update...

Little change to the forecast. Will likely extend the time and coverage of snow showers and flurries until a surface trough descending out of Canada moves through.

530 AM Update:

Made some minor adjustments to PoPs for the next few hours reflect latest radar trends. Coverage of the steady light snow is beginning to diminish as expected. These will gradually transition to lake effect snow showers through the day today.
Previous discussion remains valid.

330 AM Update:

The shortwave responsible for producing the widespread light snow will move east of the area this morning, which will allow for the snow to taper off as the morning progresses. Behind this shortwave, 850mb temperatures will fall a few more degrees to around -12C. This, combined with a northwest flow will allow for lake effect snow showers across the Finger Lakes Region and perhaps into the Twin Tiers. With the relatively short fetch off Lake Ontario, these snow showers are expected to be on the lighter side with minor accumulations. It is possible that some slight enhancement could occur immediately downwind of the Finger Lakes as well. Even where lake effect snow showers do not occur, it will remain mostly cloudy with the continued northwest flow. Parts of the Poconos-Catskills may see partial sunshine late in the afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit below normal today again, with highs in the lower to mid 30s.

Some additional lake effect snow showers are possible tonight across the Finger Lakes Region, but otherwise the majority of the area will be precipitation-free with partly to mostly cloudy skies. By late tonight/early Thursday morning, another shortwave/clipper system will begin to approach the area from the northwest. Light snow will begin to develop from this approaching system during this timeframe, mainly west of I-81/across the Finger Lakes Region to the Northern Tier of PA.
Lows are expected to be in the 20s.

A warm front associated with this weak clipper system will push northward across the area on Thursday and weak isentropic lift should be enough to produce some widespread light snow. Up to an inch of snow will be possible, but this will be dependent on afternoon temperatures Thursday. The snow could mix with rain in the afternoon, especially in the valleys as surface temperatures rise into the mid to upper 30s. However, wet bulbing could keep precipitation falling as snow.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
340 AM Update...

A warming and drying trend this period.

Thursday night light snow showers will continue but lift northeast ahead of a warm front. Snow amounts will be light with surface temperatures above freezing. Morning lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Warm air advection continues into Saturday as a large upper level ridge moves east through our area Friday night. Friday highs in the 40s followed by lows in the 30s. A deep southwest flow will push high temperatures Saturday into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
350 AM Update...

Heavy rain and strong winds will likely impact the region Sunday into Monday. Models are trending slower but are coming into better agreement on timing and strength.

However, deep SW return flow will start pumping moisture into the area ahead of a deepening upper trough across the Central U.S. That trough will turn negatively tilted late Sunday and an intense surface low will track northeast across the Great Lakes on Sunday. Euro ensembles are indicating anomalous PWs of 3 to 4 standard deviations and an intense LLJ of 60+ knots. Winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph Sunday into Monday. A slow moving cold front pushes in midday Sunday and heavy rainfall will be widespread across the region Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. WPC has put the entire east coast in a day 5 marginal for excessive rainfall. Some hydro issues will be possible with localized rainfall amounts of 2+ inches possible with this system. High temperatures will be 55 to 60.

Heavy rain will push east of the area Monday morning, but we will remain under the upper level trough on Monday. Low level flow out of the west and T850 dropping to around -10C, means conditions will be favorable for lake effect snow, however, way too early at this time to know how this will unfold. Cold air advection will set off showers late Monday continuing into Tuesday. Right now low level winds look westerly sending the most snow into Oneida County and next western Steuben County.
The majority of snow showers should be in CNY. Monday night temperatures fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Tuesday highs will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
While the steadier snow will be tapering off as the morning progresses, lingering MVFR ceiling restrictions are expected to continue at most terminals, especially the Central NY terminals from lake effect clouds and snow showers. Some improvement back to VFR is possible this afternoon and evening, before additional restrictions move in late tonight/early Thursday morning ahead of the next system to move in, which will bring another round of light snow to the area on Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday...A weak system may bring occasional restrictions in light snow.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Restrictions likely from rain and low ceilings, as well as gusty winds.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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