Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 6:09 AM   Moonset 10:48 PM

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LOZ044 Expires:202405100930;;942488 Fzus51 Kbuf 100256 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1056 pm edt Thu may 9 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-100930- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1056 pm edt Thu may 9 2024
Overnight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Rain likely. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday night - East winds less than 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - South winds less than 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 101053 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 653 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

SYNOPSIS
Widespread rain showers will impact the area today, before decreasing in coverage tonight. Additional on-and-off showers are anticipated for this weekend, along with below normal temperatures. A gradual warm-up is expected next week, but showers will remain in the forecast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
345 AM Update:

As a surface low passes to the south, a shortwave trough will be pushing through the area today. This will set the stage for widespread light to occasionally moderate rain showers. Despite a prolonged period of rain, rates will be rather light. Flooding is not a concern with this system due to the rather light rainfall rates, combined with green-up underway or complete across the area. With a cool airmass in place and the trough moving through, temperatures will be cool for this time of the year; mainly in the upper 40s to mid 50s. This will make it feel more like late March or early April, rather than early-mid May.

There will be some lingering showers tonight, with perhaps some dry time heading into early Saturday as the first shortwave trough departs to the east. Lingering low-level moisture should keep skies mostly cloudy, but some patches of partial clearing will be possible. With this lingering moisture, patchy fog will also be possible. Lows are expected to be in the upper 30s to upper 40s. There is a low potential for some patchy frost in any areas of partial clearing, but with marginal temperatures and still mainly cloudy skies, the chances are that this will not occur.

The mainly dry period will be short-lived as yet another wave approaches the area by Saturday afternoon. This will bring a renewed chance for some showers, with perhaps a rumble of thunder across the Finger Lakes Region. The best chance of rain showers will be for areas west of I-81 (especially the Finger Lakes Region). Farther south and east (towards the Poconos- Catskills), conditions may remain mainly dry until Saturday evening with perhaps some partial sunshine during the day.
Temperatures will again be cooler than normal, with highs expected to be in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
400 AM Update

Cool, showery weather continues over the region Saturday night and Sunday as a closed off 700/500mb low slides east over the region.
Despite the cool air aloft (+1C at 850mb and -23C at 500mb)
there looks to be very limited, if any instability due to the cool surface temperatures in the 40s overnight and 50s to perhaps low 60s during the day. Can't rule out an isolated rumble of thunder, but overall very low probabilities.

The low exits fairly quickly Sunday night, replaced by a transient shortwave ridge. This will bring dry weather, with partial clearing.
There is no strong surface high, so some clouds may linger and light southwest winds will be present. Overnight lows will be rather cool, dipping into the 40s areawide. Model guidance continues to be in fairly good agreement that a front will quickly drop into the area from the north-northwest on Monday. Out ahead of this boundary, there could be enough daytime heating for modest instability to build, as highs reach the mid-60s to lower 70s. The front will initiate another round of showers, and perhaps some thunderstorms through the day, especially in the afternoon over Central NY.

The surface boundary looks to stall over our region Monday night, as the main upper level trough, and support remains north, with a zonal 500mb flow over our region. This will keep the potential for rounds of showers to move over the area overnight. For now, kept chance PoPs in the forecast. Not as cool, with lows in the 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
400 AM Update

Trends in the latest 00z model guidance are for increasing PoPs, rainfall amounts and thunder chances on Tuesday. However, on the other hand, the latest guidance is now trending drier later Wednesday and especially Thursday with an upper level ridge.

A low pressure system approaches from the Tennessee Valley Monday night into Tuesday. Moisture spreads northeast along the above mentioned stalled frontal boundary. Stuck close to the latest NBM ensemble guidance which gave solid likely to even borderline categorical PoPs on Tuesday, with a slight chance to chance for thunderstorms as well...depending on how much CAPE/instability can develop in the unsettled pattern. Overall, it is still not looking very unstable and with dew points in the 50s, the rainfall should not be overly heavy. This system will be something to monitor moving forward, in case rainfall amounts trend higher. Highs are near average in the mid-60s to lower 70s once again.

Behind this system drier air begins to move in from NW to SE Tuesday night into Wednesday. There are timing differences in the 00z deterministic guidance, with the GFS lingering more showers into Wednesday, while the ECMWF dries our weather out faster
For now, stayed close to the NBM ensemble guidance
but did lower PoPs some to account for the latest trends. Temperatures do not change much compared to Tuesday.

Model guidance seems to be coming into much better agreement on a period of dry and warm weather Thursday, under an upper level ridge. Lowered PoPs below what NBM was suggesting to account for this trend. Bumped high temperatures up well into the 70s, as skies are forecast to be mostly sunny. Rounding out the long term period, there is uncertainty on the timing of the next low pressure system. Some of the guidance brings it into the area on Friday, while other guidance keeps it dry next Friday. With the uncertainty this far out in time, decided to remain very close to the NBM/ensemble guidance. This gave 30-40% chance for showers. Temperature remain nearly unchanged, back in the 70s.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mainly MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling restrictions are expected for most of the day with rain showers. Restrictions will be slower to move in at KSYR and KRME, where it may remain VFR until this afternoon. Despite guidance hinting at IFR conditions at some terminals today, this is not very likely and therefore kept restrictions no worse than Fuel Alternate for now.

Best chance for some IFR restrictions will actually be tonight after the bulk of the rain moves out, as it is possible that lingering low ceilings and/or patchy fog may be present.
Best chance for this will be at KBGM, KELM, and KITH.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...Occasional rain showers may bring intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions possible in between disturbances, but timing of this is uncertain.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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