Rochester, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rochester, NY

November 28, 2023 2:11 PM EST (19:11 UTC)
Sunrise 7:17AM   Sunset 4:39PM   Moonrise  5:22PM   Moonset 8:56AM 

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Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 439 Am Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Today..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest. Lake effect snow with some rumbles of Thunder possible. Waves 12 to 16 feet subsiding to 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely in the evening, then lake effect snow overnight. Waves 9 to 12 feet subsiding to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain showers likely Thursday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds around 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of rain and snow showers Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 47 degrees, and the central lake ontario buoy water temperature is 48 degrees.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1046 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Significant lake effect snow will continue through this evening southeast of the lakes. Lake effect snow will then swing back north late tonight and early Wednesday. Even though the snow will be in a weakened state some accumulations are expected northeast of the lakes in the morning which could impact the morning commute. A weak clipper passes through the region later Wednesday which may bring some more light snow showers to the area. High pressure then briefly builds in Thursday with relatively quiet weather. Unsettled but milder weather returns towards the end of the work week with more of a rain system arriving on Friday.


Regional radars late this morning showing the lake effect bands showing a southward drift as the west-northwest flow gradually veers to northwest in the wake of upper shortwave trough passing to the east. Radar also confirming hi-res forecast for upstream lake connections developing off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. These connection will serve to enhance snowfall rates in narrow plumes.

The greatest snowfall amounts through late this afternoon will occur over the Chautauqua Ridge through the Boston Hills where the Lake Huron connection will enhance amounts. Strongest winds likely found to the north of the heaviest lake snows but nonetheless winds still gusting to 20 to 30 will produce near whiteout conditions making travel very difficult at times.
Stronger NW winds will also push focused snow bands into portions of Allegany County with at least advisory level snowfall in parts of the county.

Off Lake Ontario, the southward drift to the primary lake band has allowed the warning to be cancelled for Jefferson county.
The primary lake band will continue to drift to the south through this afternoon and with the noted upstream connection off Georgian Bay, snowfall rates through midday will still be pushing 2+"/hr across southern Tug Hill and into Oswego County.
By early afternoon, moderate to heavy snow off Lake Ontario will shift more across Oswego County and impact portions of Wayne and northern Cayuga counties. Decent signal that a relatively narrow, but intense band of snow will set up over far western Oswego into N. Cayuga County and extending farther inland.
Soundings show strong lift within the DGZ where this band develops. This band will be narrow so it could shift around, but given the potential of several inches of fluffy snow adding up quickly. A lake effect snow warning remains in effect for northern Cayuga county with an advisory for Wayne county (most snow there will be over the east half of Wayne County with minimal snow west of Lyons and Newark).

Areas outside of these two primary lake effect areas will largely see nothing more than a passing snow shower at times, though with the trough overhead today and winds shifting NW, areas on the lake plains from IAG/BUF to ROC will see some snow showers and flurries at times, especially as the stronger band over Ontario brushes onshore. Cold all areas. Not much improvement in the wintry chill for the rest of today as high temperatures will not reach freezing and wind chill values will reside in the teens with a blustery west wind that will be gusting to 25-35 mph strongest on the lake plains as the day progresses.

Late tonight, it still appears that the steering flow will back to southwest ahead of another compact shortwave trough dropping across the Great Lakes. The backing flow will send the lake effect back to the north. Some snow could start to impact the Buffalo Metro and Watertown late Tonight with current indications that both locations could see a quick inch or two of snow and the snow. There may even be a bit heavier snow over southern Jefferson county into northern Oswego County as low-level convergence increases there briefly before the band shifts more to the north very late tonight. Though snowfall amounts will be light in Buffalo and Watertown compared to what has occurred to the south of those areas since Monday the timing is not good as it will be arriving for the Wednesday morning commute and will have no problem sticking to untreated roads as temps will still be in the 20s.

Next shortwave rotates through the central Lakes Wednesday morning.
This will cause the lake effect snow off both lakes to continue a march to the north through the first half of Wednesday. As is typically the case,lake effect parameters will be weakening at this time, so expect snowfall amounts to be on the lighter side. However, even though an inch or two is forecast off Lake Erie Wednesday morning, could be timed with the morning commute around the Buffalo metro making for some slick travel. Set up off Lake Ontario remains a bit more favorable with a quick burst of several inches possible Wednesday morning across Jefferson and far northern Lewis counties, including the Watertown area. Winds back to SSW Wednesday afternoon with the bulk of any weak lake effect activity across Niagara county off Lake Erie and near the Saint Lawrence River off Lake Ontario where an additional inch or so will be possible, although expect little impact as temperatures in these areas are expected to climb above freezing. Meanwhile, the higher terrain will see highs only in the mid 20s to around 30. Shortwave passes the area Wednesday night causing winds to veer SW then WSW later in the overnight. This will send the lake band off both lakes back southward through the night, possibly producing a couple more inches for areas northeast and east of both Lakes as it swings through. Lows will range through the 20s.

Lingering lake effect activity northeast of the lakes Thursday morning will shut down Thursday afternoon as warmer and drier moves in. Warm enough in fact that any lake effect snow may mix with or even change to plain rain before ending as boundary temps warm. It will be noticeably warmer with all but the higher terrain climbing into the 40s. Next area of low pressure swings through west-central Quebec Thursday night dragging its trailing cold front through the region during the overnight. This will renew precip chances, however this time showers will be mainly in the form of rain, with some wet snow possibly mixed in across the higher terrain. Low temperatures will range from the low 30s across the higher terrain, to the mid and upper 30s elsewhere.

Model consensus coming into better agreement on the track of a rapidly moving, but weakening system passing by just to our south on Friday. Confidence remains high that precipitation shield on the northern side of the low will move across much of western and northcentral NY. P-type at this point looks to be mainly rain, with a mix possible across the higher terrain.

High pressure quickly builds in from the north briefly drying things out Friday night, with mainly dry weather possibly lasting through much of Saturday. This is where models continue to diverge on the timing and evolution of the next system approaching from the west, which will likely impact the region Sunday and/or Monday with mainly rain (higher elevation mix possible).

Bands of heavy lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through this afternoon with IFR/LIFR during the heavier periods of lake effect. Outside of lake effect areas though, mainly VFR will prevail with passing snow showers or flurries at times.

Most of the TAF sites will see little to no impact from the heavy snow, with VFR prevailing most of the time at KBUF and KIAG. KROC will see a few snow showers at times today when brief periods of IFR in light snow is possible. KJHW will be the most significantly impacted, with snow briefly reducing the VSBY to near airfield minimums at times through the afternoon.

Lake effect snow east of both lakes shifts north late tonight as winds shift to the southwest. The snow could result in IFR-LIFR vsby at BUF/IAG and ART.


Wednesday...Mainly VFR/MVFR, with IFR-LIFR in lake effect snow showers.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with lake effect snow ending early.
Friday...Mainly VFR/MVFR with rain showers.
Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Strong westerly winds and only slowly subsiding waves will persist through late this week. Long duration Small Craft Advisories are now in effect for all but the Niagara River and St. Lawrence River through later Thursday.

NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ004- 021.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ005- 006-008-012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for LOZ042>045.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 7 mi54 min 29°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 7 mi72 min W 16G23 29°F 29.90
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 33 mi42 min W 27G33 32°F 48°F29.8524°F

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Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KROC GREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY 4 sm9 minW 18G281/2 sm--30°F19°F64%29.89
KIUA CANANDAIGUA,NY 24 sm16 minW 17G2410 smMostly Cloudy30°F21°F69%29.86

Wind History from ROC
(wind in knots)

Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   

Buffalo, NY,

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