Rochester, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rochester, NY

December 8, 2023 1:44 AM EST (06:44 UTC)
Sunrise 7:27AM   Sunset 4:36PM   Moonrise  2:45AM   Moonset 1:57PM 

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Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 952 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain and snow late this morning, then rain likely this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Rain Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Rain and snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of rain showers Monday night. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1228 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Lingering light wet snow and rain showers east of Lake Ontario will end overnight. Notably milder air will overspread the region to end the week with temperatures climbing well into the 50s by Saturday afternoon. A low pressure system will then bring moderate to heavy rain across the area Saturday night into Sunday. Rain will change over to snow from west to east Sunday night as colder air moves back into the region.

A weakly forced frontal zone will remain stalled over the eastern Lake Ontario region overnight. Weak isentropic upglide atop the frontal zone will continue to produce some very light precipitation east of Lake Ontario through the early overnight, falling mainly in the form of light snow, although some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out. A brief window for limited lake effect is now open, with a few lake effect snow and rain showers as of mid evening over Oswego County. These will be short lived, drifting north overnight and ending. Any snow accumulation will be minimal.
Temperatures should hold steady in the low to mid 30s overnight back across the rest of WNY.

The stalled boundary will finally shove off to the east Friday as the axis of a mid-level ridge moves over the region. High pressure subsidence will ensure a dry day with some clearing from the west in the late morning, though additional clouds will likely move back in later in the afternoon. Light southerly flow and WAA will boost high temperatures some 10 degrees warmer compared to those seen today, potentially even surpassing the 50 degree mark along the Lake Erie shoreline and in the typical warm spots in the Genesee Valley.

Mid level ridge axis centered across New York Friday night will slide east into New England Saturday. This will support an elongated surface high across the East Coast. Overall, with the building heights and subsidence from the high will promote a dry night along with a fairly dry day Saturday. Temperatures will continue to be on the warmer side with lows Friday night ranging in the upper 30s across the areas east of Lake Ontario to the low to mid 40s elsewhere. The warm spell will continue into Saturday as southerly flow will aid in some downsloping and support temperatures to warm up into the upper 40s across the Tug Hill region and in the low to mid 50s elsewhere.

Meanwhile, a deep trough will advance from the central United States and support a surface low and cold front to push across the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late Saturday and Saturday night. As the front approached the western doorstep of western New York, chances for rain showers will increase, with the best timing of the heavier precipitation arriving around daybreak Sunday. This all being said, the combination of the trough and the aforementioned surface high pressure on the Eastern Seaboard will funnel in moisture to the frontal zone not only from the Gulf of Mexico but also the Atlantic Ocean. Overall this will support moderate rain to fall late Saturday night. Otherwise, the warm mild temperatures will continue Saturday night with lows in the low to mid 40s region wide.

Active weather still in store Sunday into Monday with moderate to heavy rain on Sunday changing to several inches of wet snow Sunday night into early Monday from west to east.

After much uncertainty the last few days, models and ensembles are more or less on board with farther east track to wavy frontal boundary and waves of low pressure moving along it Sunday into Monday morning. Latest GFS did trend a bit west on Sunday night with the heavier QPF/snow, but also is an outlier now compared to its ensembles and other guidance/ensembles. This eastern shift occurs as shortwave trough digging across the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday swings across the northeast by Monday, but never quite phases with northern branch shortwave trough crossing northern Ontario and the upper Great Lakes. It was only when these two branches phased did we see a strong low passing to the west of here on Sunday that was advertised in the models earlier this week. That is not there now in guidance or ensembles though. Upshot is winds for our forecast area are not looking to be as strong either Sunday with the southerlies ahead of the system or with the west-northwest winds in the cold air behind the system. Heaviest rain on Sunday in the warm sector will occur where strongest moisture advection of abnormally high PWATs well over the 90th percentile occurs ahead of the front (eastern Finger Lakes northward to the eastern Lake Ontario region).
By late Sunday night, areas on the Tug Hill may see over 2 inches of liquid boosted by upslope flow. Farther west though, the gradient of QPF will be sharper with Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes near an inch while most of western NY sees 0.5 to 0.75 inch of liquid before the rain turns to snow. This heavy rain could cause some issues as model ensembles for river forecast points indicate a low, but non-zero chance some rivers especially in the Black River basin could rise to action stage with the rain and melting snow. This will have be to be monitored as we progress into the weekend.

As the next wave of low pressure lifts by on Sunday night, good agreement that switch from rain to snow occurs as early as dusk Sunday evening for higher terrain of southwest NYS, then eventually through the evening for the rest of western NY with most locations to snow by midnight. Quick change on to the east the rest of the night. All areas will see ptype of snow by daybreak on Monday. Only exception may be right along the Lake Ontario shoreline over far se portion of the lake with ra/sn mix. It is certainly possible winter headlines may eventually be needed for the change to wet snow Sunday night into Monday, with highest chances of that from Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes and probably more so for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. In these spots, models and ensemble probability data suggest several inches of wet/sloppy snow could occur and it is here there is also higher signal for widespread moderate impacts on the latest Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (Prob WSSI).
Now even though lower elevations may not much as snow from this event compared to higher terrain (so long as the eastern trend holds), the commute on Monday morning looks difficult for all areas as rain changes to up to a few inches of slushy snow and temps will be at or just below freezing.

Steady system snow exits fairly quickly on Monday. Though there will be some scattered leftover lake effect snow, at this point it appears to be light as it will be held down by limited deep moisture and less low-level cyclonic flow as ridge slips in quickly late Monday into Monday night. Forecast soundings across the lakes Monday look quite mixed with inverted-V profile which usually is not that great for much lake effect. Does look like a seasonally cool day with a blustery NW wind.

Rest of long term looks changeable. Modest warm up on Tuesday with gusty WSW winds will be followed by cool down on Wednesday as a fairly sharp cold front drops across. Highest pops near the lakes for now but maybe a touch of light snow for all areas on Wednesday if this front ends up having a bit more punch than shown right now.
Another round of warm air advection starts up on Thursday.

Lower cigs and lingering snow and patchy freezing drizzle east of Lake Ontario. This will result in IFR flight conditions at KART, although improvement is possible at times. Elsewhere cigs around 2-4k feet on the border of VFR/MVFR. These cigs will lift/scatter from SW-NE through this morning as winds shift to the southeast.

Expect improvement to VFR across Western NY in the morning, and by early afternoon east of Lake Ontario as skies clear from southwest to northeast. VFR clouds will return by late afternoon and evening.

Friday night and Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...MVFR/IFR. Breezy. Rain changing to rain/snow showers late.
Monday...MVFR. Breezy with a chance of snow showers.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Winds will subside overnight as surface high pressure builds across and then east of the lakes. Offshore south/southeasterly winds will increase some on Friday, though remain below SCA criteria through much of Saturday. The next chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions will arrive Sunday night through Monday as colder air moves back into the lower Great Lakes in the wake of the warm weekend system.
Winds will likely remain elevated through the middle of next week.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 7 mi87 min 38°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 7 mi105 min WSW 1.9G5.1 39°F 30.03
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 33 mi65 min W 12G14 43°F 47°F30.0038°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 59 mi105 min SSW 2.9G6 40°F 30.01

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Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KROC GREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY 4 sm50 minSW 058 smOvercast36°F32°F87%30.00
KIUA CANANDAIGUA,NY 24 sm9 mincalm10 smOvercast36°F34°F93%30.00

Wind History from ROC
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Buffalo, NY,

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