Wednesday, November20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:44PM Wednesday November 20, 2019 10:02 AM EST (15:02 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:51PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 612 Am Est Wed Nov 20 2019
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Cloudy this morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely during the day. Waves 8 to 12 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest less than 10 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers Saturday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees, and the central lake ontario buoy water temperature is 45 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201911201615;;549825 FZUS51 KBUF 201112 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 612 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-201615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.17, -77.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fx/fxus61.kbuf.afd.buf.txt <- there really should be an address herer AEFXUS61 KBUF 201105 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 605 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

SYNOPSIS A weak upper level disturbance will cross the eastern Great Lakes through this afternoon, producing a few light rain and snow showers.

Dry weather will return tonight and Thursday as high pressure builds into the area. A cold front will then cross the region Thursday night and Friday, producing a few rain showers and breezy conditions.

NEAR TERM THROUGH TONIGHT A weak upper level trough makes its way across the region through this evening before heights begin to rise late tonight. This trough is characterized by limited cold air (H85 temps only as low as -4c) and little in way of deeper moisture. So, even though there is a weak sfc trough working across this morning from north to south switching winds more to nw, support for much more than a few showers, mainly in form of rain, is minimal as there will be little if any help off the lakes (lake sfc temps 45f 7c only gives delta t S of 11-12c).

If it were colder this morning, think there would be more of a concern for slippery spots, but the clouds overnight have helped temps most areas stay into the middle 30s. NYS Thruway data, which yesterday morning showed some road surface temps in the upper 20s to near 30, is indicating road surface temps in the mid to upper 30s this morning. Still, could see some isolated slippery spots in the higher terrain of the Southern Tier early today where there is some fog noted (though not seeing vsby as low as yesterday morning). Also could see some slippery spots east of Lake Ontario where temps fell into the 20s before clouds moved back overhead.

Generally, seems that better chances for precip through the afternoon will be over the higher terrain south of Buffalo into the Southern Tier and on east to the Finger Lakes as the NW winds provide some upslope lifting. Even here though, only looking at low end chances and that is probably generous. Tonight, greater moisture up to H8 5kft shifts toward Finger Lakes and low-level convergence is strongest there as well. So, that is where few light rain showers drizzle should move to through the night before diminishing late. Elsewhere, high pressure ridge begins to arrive from the west, but skies will stay mainly cloudy. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 30s with some upper 20s over higher terrain of Southern Tier. Where any clearing occurs it would open door up for potential for patchy fog.

SHORT TERM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY On Thursday... surface high pressure draped squarely across our region at the start of the day will slowly drift eastward to the New England coastline... while a deepening area of low pressure tracks from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Michigan Straits. The resulting warm air advection pattern in between these two systems will result in a milder day with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 40s across the bulk of the area... along with some partial early morning sunshine giving way to increasing cloud cover from west to east through the rest of the day. The above said... the approaching low should remain far enough to our north and west to result in a mainly dry day... with just the low-end chance of a shower or two reaching far western New York toward sunset.

Thursday night and Friday the deepening surface low will continue its northeastward trek across Ontario and Quebec Provinces... and in the process will sweep its trailing cold front across our area between late Thursday night and Friday morning... with the approach and passage of this boundary helping to generate a round of fairly numerous to widespread rain showers. Following the passage of the front... increasing drying and subsidence will then result in the showers becoming considerably more scattered from west to east through the balance of the day... while mixing with some wet snow Friday afternoon as cold air advection increases on the backside of the system. All the above stated... total precipitation amounts with this system look to remain low and on the order of a tenth to a quarter of an inch in most locations... and this combined with the diminishing nature of the precip during the transition in ptype will help to greatly limit any snowfall accumulations to only minor amounts... with these mainly confined to the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

While precipitation will thus not be much of a concern with this system... its associated winds could potentially be a different story. While the 00z 20 suite of guidance continues to show quite a bit of variance with the overall strength and track of the low...

and the GFS remains much stronger and closer to our area with its track compared to the other models... in general the guidance seems to be trending a bit stronger overall with this system... with this trend most noticeable in the 00z ECMWF and GEM. While there is still quite a bit of uncertainty... the overall pattern and lingering 40-50 knot flow aloft behind the cold front would seem to suggest at least some potential for a round of fairly windy conditions following the cold frontal passage later Thursday night and Friday... with this greatest over and east of Lake Ontario.

Otherwise... rather mild temperatures in the 40s out ahead of the cold front Thursday night will give way to falling readings following its passage late Thursday night and early Friday... with all areas seeing readings tumbling into the lower to mid 30s by later Friday afternoon.

During Friday night surface high pressure and much drier air will build across our region... with the dry nature of the incoming airmass and rather low inversion heights conspiring to keep any lake response over and southeast of the lakes rather meager in nature.

Meanwhile... the combined effects of cold advection and nocturnal cooling will help to send temperatures down into the lower to mid 20s across the North Country... and to the mid to upper 20s elsewhere.

On Saturday the surface high will only begrudgingly drift eastward to New England... while a southern stream trough and associated modest wave of low pressure develops into the Ohio Valley. While this latter system should draw close enough to spread some clouds into our region Saturday afternoon... the departing ridging should remain dominant enough to result in a mainly dry day... with only an outside chance of a rain snow shower reaching the Southern Tier late. Otherwise... we can expect somewhat below average high temps ranging from the mid-upper 30s east of Lake Ontario to the upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere.

LONG TERM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY Saturday night and Sunday the GFS and ECMWF have come into somewhat better agreement on lifting the aforementioned trough and surface low northeastward from the Ohio Valley... with secondary cyclogenesis taking place along the mid-Atlantic coastline... and the ensuing coastal system then tracking northeastward along the New England coast. Such an evolution in the pattern would result in a potential for some light rain or snow showers as this system traverses our region between Saturday night and Sunday. Meanwhile... the GEM has the same general idea save that it keeps everything suppressed much further to the south... which would keep dry weather intact across our region until Sunday... when the latter model subsequently swings a weak northern stream trough across our area. Taking the increasing agreement between the GFS and ECMWF into consideration along with the differing GEM solution and our previous continuity of a mainly dry forecast... for now have elected to bump PoPs up just into the lower portion of the chance range for Saturday night and Sunday.

Following the passage of this next potential system... high pressure and drier air still looks to build eastward across our region Sunday night and Monday... before drifting eastward to New England on Tuesday. Coupled with unimpressively cool temperatures aloft... this would likely help to keep any lake response in the wake of the low rather minimal Sunday night and early Monday... with mainly dry weather otherwise prevailing through the remainder of the period.

With respect to temperatures... somewhat below average readings at the start of the period should give way to a warming trend for Monday and especially Tuesday as the axis of the ridge slides off to our east... when the ensuing warm advection regime should help to push readings back above late November normals.

AVIATION 11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY Expect stratus clouds to persist through the period, though clouds may clear out at ART later tonight. A few rain showers, possibly mixed with snow, may occur today over western NY to the Finger Lakes, but these will be few and far between in coverage and certainly not enough to include in these TAFs.

Cigs for most part will reside in the MVFR to lowerVFR category.

Lower exception could occur at JHW where IFR CIGS and some fog may occur at times through this afternoon. For tonight where skies remain mostly cloudy, expect a continuation of MVFR to lowerVFR range cigs.

Outlook...

Thursday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers Thursday night.

Friday... MVFRVFR with a chance of showers. Breezy.

Saturday and Sunday... MainlyVFR.

MARINE A weak pressure gradient will remain in place across the eastern Great Lakes through Thursday morning, with winds generally 15 knots or less and waves under 3 feet. A moderately strong area of low pressure will then move from the Upper Great Lakes Thursday afternoon to southern Quebec by Friday, with a trailing cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes Friday morning. Southerly winds will increase ahead of this system later Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, then become southwest on Friday following the cold front. Looks very likely that small craft advisories will be needed Thursday night into Friday and there is certainly a chance that gale headlines may be needed as well, especially Friday on Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES WARNINGS ADVISORIES NY... None.

MARINE... None.

SYNOPSIS... Hitchcock NEAR TERM... JLA SHORT TERM... JJR LONG TERM... JJR AVIATION... Hitchcock JLA MARINE... Apffel Hitchcock JLA
Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 7 mi51 min 39°F 1017.7 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 7 mi63 min W 6 G 8 39°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 33 mi43 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 41°F 41°F1017.9 hPa36°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 59 mi63 min WNW 6 G 7 40°F 1020 hPa (+2.4)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last
24hr
NE6
G11
N7
G11
N6
N4
G8
N5
G11
W10
G14
NW7
NW7
G10
NW6
N4
G7
S4
G9
S4
G7
S3
S5
S4
G9
S5
G10
S4
G8
S5
S4
G9
SE5
G8
S5
G9
S5
G9
S4
G9
S2
1 day
ago
SE6
G14
SE7
G11
SE9
G12
SE8
G11
SE7
G12
SE3
G12
E2
NE4
SE2
NE8
G12
E4
E3
SE1
G6
SE2
G7
NE5
NE5
G11
NE12
G15
NE8
G11
NE8
G14
NE9
G12
NE8
G11
N7
N8
G11
N7
G12
2 days
ago
SE8
G11
SE11
G15
SE12
G17
SE10
G15
SE10
G13
SE11
G14
SE8
G12
SE6
G10
SE11
G16
SE11
G16
SE10
G13
SE10
G17
SE12
G19
SE10
G14
SE10
G18
SE10
G13
SE8
G13
SE12
G19
SE12
G19
SE13
G18
SE11
G18
SE9
G17
SE9
G16
SE10
G16

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY4 mi69 minW 410.00 miOvercast36°F32°F86%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
Last 24hrNE4NE5E3CalmN5N4NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSW3NW3NW3W3SW4W4W4W6
1 day agoSE6SE5SE5E7E4E4E4E5E5E5E3CalmE3NE4NE4NE5NE5E7NE3E4CalmCalmW3Calm
2 days agoSE9S12S12
G20
S17
G23
S9S10SE6SE8SE7SE8SE8SE10SE9SE11SE10SE8SE7SE9SE7SE6SE6SE5SE5SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (10,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Cookie Policy:
This webiste uses cookies to store settings on the weather pages so that you return to the same settings when you click the weather pages. This is necessary to save your setup information. There are also cookies used if you click the save location button.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data period. I do log page view information to monitor the health of the site and to block abusive actors. I also host ads from Google. They may or may not sell your data. Please adjust your account settings with them if you wich. This site does not fall under the terms of the CCPA or GDPR due to its size and target audiance.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.