Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 5:18PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 5:55 AM EST (10:55 UTC) Moonrise 9:44AMMoonset 9:04PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 353 Am Est Tue Jan 28 2020
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Scattered snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..East winds less than 10 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of snow and rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202001281615;;636264 FZUS51 KBUF 280853 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 353 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-281615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NY
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location: 43.17, -77.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 281040 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 540 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. While very little in the way of impactful weather is expected during the next 24 hours . a persistent northerly flow around a storm system over the Canadian maritimes will keep our region shrouded under low clouds That being said. a few spots could pick up a little freezing drizzle early this morning which could result in localized slick spots for travelers. A noticeable improvement in our weather is not expected for most areas until at least Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Plenty of low clouds around to start the day and really that changes little through tonight as low-level moisture remains trapped beneath sub 4kft inversion in a weak but persistent northerly flow. Started this shift with drizzle and freezing drizzle many areas as temps in the moist layer were only -7c or -8c late last evening. But, as the morning has progressed, temps in the moist layer, at least the modeled temps, have dropped more into the -8c to -10c range. Most obs now are only reporting -SN, though ELZ and GTB still are reporting freezing drizzle at times. Kept a mention of freezing drizzle through daybreak over the Southern Tier and into the Finger Lakes and put Special Weather Statement out through daybreak to cover the potential for icy conditions on untreated roads due to the freezing drizzle. Otherwise, think snow or flurries is the main ptype through today and tonight with the gradually cooling temps aloft.

Highs will rise very little from current readings, so looking at lower 30s toward Lake Erie and Lake Ontario and in the upper 20s to near 30F over the higher terrain. Cloudy skies tonight will keep temps from falling as much as some guidance shows. Went with min temps in the teens east of Lake Ontario, but elsewhere readings likely will remain in the low to mid 20s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. An expansive area of Canadian high pressure will provide dry weather and relatively light winds through this entire period. On Wednesday, the center of this large high will slowly drift east crossing the Ontario/Quebec border just south of James Bay. The cool northerly upslope flow on the front side of the anticyclone will keep clouds in across areas south of Lake Ontario Wednesday morning. However, drier air and subsidence associated with the approaching high will eventually win out, finally eroding the moisture that has been trapped under a strong subsidence inversion. This should allow for some breaks of sun later in the day, that which we haven't seen in a while. This will occur east of Lake Ontario first, then from north to south as the afternoon wears on across Western NY, the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region.

The center of the high will then build south-southeastward across eastern NY into southern New England Wednesday night through Thursday night, making for no worse than some partly cloudy skies at times. The center of the high will be very near or right overhead Wednesday night, making for ideal radiational cooling conditions with clear skies and light winds. Areas that have residual snow cover will be even further primed. This will allow temps to fall very rapidly, with areas of the North Country likely falling to zero or a bit below. A light southerly return flow will begin Thursday night into Friday as high pressure slides off the southern New England coast. As mentioned above it will remain dry, however this will keep our temperatures from plummeting as dramatically Thursday night as they did Wednesday night, with just an increase in mid and high clouds on Friday. This will also help boost temps back up to a few degrees above average by the end of the work week. Looking at the numbers, highs mainly in the 20s area wide on Wednesday, will rise mainly into the 30s by Friday, with some upper 20s reserved only for the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure will slide off into the Atlantic Friday night, making way for a more active pattern heading into this weekend. A southern stream jet and upper level trough will lead to cyclogenesis off the Southeast/Mid Atlantic U.S. coastline Friday night. While the track of this potential Nor'easter will likely sway in the guidance through the week, it still appears like direct impacts will remain to our southeast then east as low pressure tracks northeast off the Jersey and New England coastline over the weekend. This is a complicated pattern with multiple shortwave troughs slated to move across the Great Lakes beginning Friday night, with the axis of the mean upper trough crossing NYS sometime late Saturday through Sunday morning. The chances of rain and snow showers increase into Saturday and continue through Sunday night, before tapering off on Monday as ridging briefly builds back in across the region. Precip type should be mainly snow Saturday and Sunday, with a mix of rain and snow or just plain rain (mainly Saturday) across the lower terrain. While there should be breaks in the rain and snow shower activity through the weekend, the uncertainty in strength and timing of these shortwave troughs and waves of low pressure are unknown this far out, so stay tuned. Warmest day looks to be Saturday prior to the passage of the upper trough axis. Somewhat colder temperatures should drift south from the upper Great Lakes for Saturday night and Sunday, with temps aloft getting just cold enough aloft for a possible lake response Sunday into Sunday night, before warm advection again ensues on Monday.

Overall, temperatures will likely remain a bit above normal through through the period.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A wealth of moisture trapped beneath a strengthening subsidence inversion will keep MVFR cigs in place for the bulk of the region through tonight. LIFR cigs will be found across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region including at KJHW and GTB. Though there could be some freezing drizzle in these higher terrain locations early today, mainly light snow showers or flurries are expected with vsby lowering to MVFR briefly.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Friday . Mainly VFR. Saturday . Deteriorating cigs in areas of light rain and/or snow.

MARINE. Light to moderate west-northwest to northwest breezes will be found on the Lakes through Tuesday, keeping conditions choppy, but below advisory criteria.

A large Canadian surface high will drift across Ontario into central Quebec Tuesday night and Wednesday. This high will then shift south- southeast over the Lake from Wednesday night through Thursday night, before sliding off the southern New England coastline on Friday. This will result in generally light winds and negligible wave action through this time frame.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . RSH NEAR TERM . JLA SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . JLA/RSH MARINE . JM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 7 mi55 min NNW 8.9 G 11 32°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 7 mi61 min 32°F 1011.3 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 59 mi55 min NNW 16 G 18 33°F 1013.2 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY4 mi61 minNNW 87.00 miLight Snow31°F27°F85%1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W9W9W6W9NW6W11NW7NW12NW8NW10NW7W8NW8--NW9NW9NW9NW7NW9NW9NW7NW8NW8
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2 days agoSE11SE12SE14
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S11SE10SE11SE9SE8SE5SE6S3CalmW6W9W4W9W8W5SW6SW6SW7W5W9W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.