Sunday, September15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:22PM Sunday September 15, 2019 11:04 PM EDT (03:04 UTC) Moonrise 7:26PMMoonset 6:58AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Expires:201909160315;;853345 Fzus51 Kbuf 160145 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 945 Pm Edt Sun Sep 15 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz042-043-160315- Niagara River To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 945 Pm Edt Sun Sep 15 2019
Tonight..Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers late this evening, then showers likely after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..East winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..East winds less than 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. The water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.
LOZ043


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NY
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location: 43.17, -77.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 160134
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
934 pm edt Sun sep 15 2019

Synopsis
A weak area of low pressure will bring some light showers at times
through Monday. High pressure will then return and bring a prolonged
stretch of fair dry weather through the rest of the week, with
already above normal temperatures trending to well above normal by
late week.

Near term through Monday
Upper level troughing over the great lakes continues to deepen in
response to the continued amplification of a ridge upstream over the
central conus. Multiple shortwaves continue to rotate through the
base of the eastern trough, and these will continue to bring
intervals of showers across western and central ny through early to
mid afternoon Monday. The north country will be on the northern
fringe of any precip, and stands a good chance of remaining dry
throughout the entire period.

Will continue to see scattered light showers from time to time
through the remainder of the evening as subtle weak upper impulses
continue to move through the general cyclonic flow. They should stay
unorganized and light for the most part through midnight. Southern
tier may see some light showers this evening, while a few widely
scattered showers move across the remainder of western ny. The north
country should remain dry, as this area is farthest removed from
lift provided by the developing stationary boundary that lies across
the niagara frontier into the finger lakes region.

The second main shortwave within the trough is expected to sweep
east-southeast across lower great lakes during the overnight hours.

In addition to the forcing from this wave and an already moistened
airmass, a weak area of sfc low pressure will track over western ny
overnight along the aforementioned surface boundary, which along
with a low-level jet will help increase low-level convergence. Will
carry chance pops this evening, giving way to a period of likely
pops from late this evening through late tonight early Monday
morning across western ny, the genesee valley and western finger
lakes region. As mentioned above, still appears the north country
may remain completely dry. As high pressure noses in from the north
and the wave of low pressure moves south of the area during the day
Monday, any leftover showers from lake ontario south will taper off
from north to south through the afternoon. As for cloud cover, while
the north country will likely start clearing out by midday, moist
northeasterly upslope flow will keep areas south of lake ontario
socked in through mid afternoon, with clearing then taking place
from north to south through the end of the day. High temps will be
around or just slightly above normal, with upper 60s to lower 70s.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
Surface high pressure to our west Monday night will bring drier
air... That will clear out skies especially away from the lake
shoreline. As a light northerly flow continues through the night,
and under clear skies some inland areas of the north country may
approach the upper 30s for lows.

Tuesday through Wednesday night this high pressure over southern
canada and building ridge aloft will yield mainly clear skies... Low
humidity and comfortable late summer temperatures in the low to
mid 70s.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
A consensus of latest medium range guidance suggests that fair and
unseasonably warm weather will continue late in the week with the
next chance for rain not coming until Sunday at the earliest.

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
MainlyVFR conditions at the terminals with lowVFR decks and
scattered light showers across western ny this evening. The
exception is some intermittent MVFR CIGS across terminals
(kbuf kiag kroc) south of lake ontario as weak moist northeasterly
upslope flow has developed just north of a burgeoning stationary
boundary that stretches from the niagara frontier to the finger
lakes region. At this point it appears the rest of the area will
remain primarilyVFR through late this evening, though cannot rule
out some brief localized MVFR in tandem with any showers.

A second disturbance will move into our region overnight, along with
a weak area of surface low pressure. This will bring another round
of showers mainly to areas south of lake ontario, in the vicinity of
the aforementioned developing slowly sagging southward surface
boundary. The combination of further moistening of the low levels
and a developing northeasterly upslope flow to the north of the
front should also result in flight conditions generally
deteriorating, as MVFR CIGS increase in coverage south of lake
ontario, with some areas of ifr not out of the question across the
higher terrain later tonight, as well as across areas caught in the
northeasterly flow south of lake ontario and north of the surface
boundary. Meanwhile, the north country should remain primarilyVFR.

MVFR ifr (higher terrain) flight conditions will continue into
Monday morning for areas south of lake ontario, with the north
country remainingVFR. High pressure building in from the north will
start to push the surface boundary south by Monday afternoon, while
also advecting in drier air. This will allow clearing to take place
around midday along the south shore of lake ontario, withVFR
conditions returning for the kbuf kiag kroc terminals by early
afternoon.VFR conditions will continue to slowly return from north
to south through the remainder of the day, with the southern tier
(kjhw) eventually returning toVFR conditions toward the end of the
taf period.

Outlook...

Monday night through Friday... MainlyVFR... With localized ifr in
southern tier valley fog possible each night early morning.

Marine
A weak surface low will push into western new york tonight and then
south of the area on Monday, bringing a brief period of enhanced
northeasterly winds and choppy conditions on the south shore of lake
ontario late tonight and Monday. Following the departure of this
wave, high pressure will then build back across our region bringing
a return to light winds and minimal wave action for the rest of the
week.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jm
near term... Jm
short term... Thomas
long term... Tma
aviation... Jm
marine... Jm jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 7 mi59 min 56°F 1018.9 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 7 mi65 min NNW 2.9 G 2.9 57°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 33 mi35 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 63°F 65°F1019.2 hPa56°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 59 mi65 min SE 5.1 G 6 60°F 1020.3 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY4 mi71 minENE 510.00 miOvercast61°F59°F93%1020.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------SW5--SW4----W5NW9--N6S3CalmNE10NE7NE5E4E3
1 day agoS14
G22
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2 days ago----E7----------SE6--SE7SE8SE8S14
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--S13
G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.