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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rochester, NY

February 17, 2025 6:26 AM EST (11:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:02 AM   Sunset 5:45 PM
Moonrise 11:10 PM   Moonset 9:02 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
   
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LOZ043 Expires:202502171015;;024824 Fzus51 Kbuf 170551 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1251 am est Mon feb 17 2025
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz042-043-171015- niagara river to sodus bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1251 am est Mon feb 17 2025

.gale warning in effect through late tonight - .

Overnight - Northwest gales to 35 knots becoming west. Snow showers likely. Waves 10 to 14 feet building to 12 to 16 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.

Monday - West gales to 35 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 12 to 16 feet subsiding to 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.

Monday night - West gales to 35 knots. Snow showers likely in the evening, then lake effect snow overnight. Waves 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.

Tuesday - West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 30 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 10 to 13 feet subsiding to 7 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.

Tuesday night - West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 6 to 10 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.

Wednesday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.

Thursday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.

Friday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ005
No data

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NY
   
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Area Discussion for Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 171114 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 614 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

SYNOPSIS
Blustery and very cold, with heavy lake effect snows becoming established southeast of Lake Ontario today. The gusty winds will result in sub zero wind chills. Frigid tonight with wind chill values well below zero. Lake effect snows continue tonight off Lake Ontario and through the day Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Deep low pressure (sub 960mb) will continue to exit off to the northeast today then stall over the Canadian Maritimes this evening.
A cold WNW flow will drive 850mb temps down to -18C to -20C across the eastern Great Lakes. With plenty of over lake instability and upstream connection off Lake Huron, lake snows will become well established by this afternoon. All indications (00Z Guidance) show lake snows intensifying by this afternoon, and remain intense through tonight when snowfall rates could approach 3 inches per hour
When all is said and done
1.5 to 3 feet will be possible in the most persistent snows, which will likely focus across the southern half of Oswego County. Snows will also clip far northern portions of Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties at times. Have issued Advisories for both of these counties where 5 to 10" will be possible.

In addition to the lake snows, it will be windy today today with gusts of 35 to 45 mph producing areas of blowing snow and near whiteout conditions at times.

Off Lake Erie...it will be a much more muted response given the short fetch. That said, an upstream connection may help to produce some modest accumulations (1-4" in a 12-hour period), especially across the higher terrain due to orographic lift.

Cold Temperatures/Wind chills...

It will be much colder behind the departing low, with temperatures in the teens today and wind chills 5F to -5F below zero.

Tonight...temps will fall off into the single digits to below zero.
The temps combined with winds (although diminishing) will lead to wind chill values as low as -15F to -25F below zero. Have issued Cold Weather Advisories across much of the area, except counties along the south shore of Lake Ontario.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
An arctic airmass will continue to settle across the region through midweek. This will lead to bitterly cold wind chills and the continuation of heavy lake effect snow off Lake Ontario.

The maintenance of a west-northwest flow Tuesday will continue to focus a band of heavy lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario.
Lake induce equilibrium levels early Tuesday will still be around 10 kft, upstream lake connections within a lake aggregate trough will continue to produce heavy snow with snowfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour. A shortwave, which will send a surface trough southward will pass over Lake Ontario Tuesday with the added wind shear combined with daytime mixing bringing a weakening trend to the lake band. This will be short-lived as winds re-align during the late afternoon and evening to bring another period of heavy snow that should stretch along the entire southern Lake Ontario shoreline as winds veer to northwest through Tuesday night. While the heaviest snows will likely be across Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties, Monroe and Orleans (perhaps Niagara) counties could easily see several additional inches of accumulation during this time. The lake band will continue to weaken Wednesday with decreasing lake inversion heights, loss up upstream lake connections, with activity becoming scattered through the day south of Lake Ontario. A mid level shortwave trough will be then advance across the western Great Lakes Wednesday night. Light synoptic snow may overspread western New York ahead of this feature.

Wind chill values will continue to range 15 below to 20 below across western New York, to as cold as 25 below zero across the North Country Tuesday morning. Temperatures will only recover to the lower to mid teens Tuesday, with wind chill values remaining below zero through the day.

Tuesday night could be a degree or two colder, especially east of Lake Ontario where there may be come clearing behind the southward dropping band of lake effect snow. Lows for Jefferson and Lewis look to range -5 to -10F. Though colder, the diminished winds may allow for a few counties to fall just short of cold weather advisory criteria.

Wednesday and Wednesday night will tack a few degrees onto the highs/lows from Tuesday as the core of the cold air will now be to the east, and the next plume of arctic air remains just to our west.
A shortwave ridge axis Wednesday night will allow for light winds, with wind chill values ranging from the single digits to just below zero.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A mid-level closed low centered across northern Illinois and Indiana will slide east across the Ohio Valley Thursday will exit into the northern Atlantic by Thursday night. This upper level pattern will support a surface low just off the coast of the Carolinas Wednesday night to track northeast along the Eastern Seaboard Thursday and Thursday night. Long range model guidance continues to have troubles with the track and timing of the Nor'easter, with the latest guidance now trending with an eastern more track in the Atlantic. As previous discussions have outlined, track of the Nor'easter will impact the weather for the region; a western more track (along/hugging the Eastern Seaboard) will support a widespread snowier pattern, while an eastern track in the Atlantic will keep the region on the drier side. Overall, the introduction of wrap around moisture in northwest chilly air will support some lake enhancement southeast of both lakes Thursday, with the current forecast depicting a chance for some snow showers. Further details will continue to get ironed out once the track and timing of the Nor'easter becomes more apparent.

In the wake of the departing low pressure system, subtle mid-level ridging and associated surface high pressure will spread across the region Friday through the weekend, supporting perhaps a break in the winter weather.

Otherwise, the later half of the week will be warmer than the start of the week, but continue to remain below freezing with highs averaging in the 20s.

AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Westerly winds will pick up a bit again today with gusts to 35-45 knots areawide...with intensifying lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario producing localized LIFR conditions in the vicinity of KFZY and points inland.

Elsewhere
snow showers should become more scattered
but will at times produce IFR conditions. Winds will also start to gradually diminish.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Tuesday Night...LIFR/IFR likely within lake snows southeast of Lake Ontario, otherwise improvement to mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with MVFR possible within lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario.

Thursday...A chance of snow/associated MVFR/IFR.

Friday.. MVFR improving to VFR.

MARINE
Westerly flow in the wake of the departing low will generate healthy gales across all of Lake Ontario today through tonight.
Meanwhile...the Niagara River and Lake Erie will experience high-end advisory-level conditions. Winds will then gradually diminish Tuesday and Tuesday night...with additional Small Craft Advisories eventually becoming necessary across Lake Ontario once the gales come to an end.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ001>008- 010>014-019>021-085.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ002- 003.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ004>006-008.
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ006>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ030.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045-062>065.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 7 mi57 min 18°F


Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
   
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KROC GREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY 4 sm6 minWNW 132 smOvercast Lt Snow Blowing Snow 18°F12°F79%29.78
KIUA CANANDAIGUA,NY 24 sm11 minWNW 03--16°F10°F79%29.75

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GEOS Local Image of north east  
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Buffalo, NY,





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