Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 9:13 PM   Moonset 5:36 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202404260315;;363417 Fzus51 Kbuf 251941 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 341 pm edt Thu apr 25 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-260315- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 341 pm edt Thu apr 25 2024
Tonight - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday night - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less.Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBGM 251756 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 156 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will be in control with dry weather through Friday. Northerly flow allows temperatures to fall below freezing again tonight. Saturday and Sunday, a warm front moves through bringing a chance of rain showers along with a warming trend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
130 pm update...

A large surface remains in control this period as it moves southeast to be centered over the area tonight then to the coast Friday and Friday night. The air with the high is cool and dry at the surface. Aloft a broad upper level trough over the northeast US will move east being replaced by a ridge centered over NY/PA Friday night. The low level flow out of the north and light this afternoon will become southwest Friday. Friday into Friday night warmer air will advect in. After 2 nearly clear days today and Friday, moisture will come in aloft late Friday night.

With dry air, clear skies, and a calm wind temperatures fall tonight into the mid and upper 20s and lower 30s. Friday afternoon temperatures peak in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Friday night temperatures will be warmer again with lows mostly in the 30s. Winds will be light with dewpoint temperatures rising to around 30.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

2 PM Update

No significant changes to the short term with this update. A line of showers still looks to push through the area on Saturday, weakening as it moves east into a drier airmass.
Rainfall amounts will be light; less than a tenth of an inch.
Any filtered sun in the morning gives way to mainly cloudy skies for the afternoon and evening. Highs are near average in the upper 50s to mid-60s with a steady south wind 8-15 mph.

A warm front pushes through Saturday night, and model guidance continues to show elevated instability moving in...this will keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast overnight. Milder with lows in the 40s to low 50s as south winds continue 5 to 15 mph.

Upper level heights continue to rise on Sunday, but there will be weak waves and instability around. The highest MLCAPE values remain confined to areas west of I-81, where up to 500 J/Kg is possible. Therefore, it will be partly sunny with scattered, mainly afternoon thunderstorms around. Went above the deterministic NBM, closer to the 50th percentile data...which gives highs in the 70s to even around 80 in the deeper valleys of the central southern tier region. The warm front continues to lift north Sunday night, and there could be a few lingering showers along it. Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy and warm with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

2 PM Update

Monday will be the warmest day of the week, and of the spring season so far. The forecast is trending drier, with more upper level ridging and capping on Monday. Therefore, decided to again go closer to the NBM 50th percentile for highs, as we are yet to hit full green up and the increasing sunshine should boost temperatures. Look for highs well into the 80s for most locations...with perhaps some upper 70s in the higher elevations of the Catskills still. Dew points reach the lower 60s, so it will certainly feel quite warm to even hot out there in the afternoon.

The main low pressure system and cold front is modeled to move through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will serve to bring us more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. Instability on ensemble guidance is noteworthy, around 1,000 J/KG surface CAPE with dewpoints into the low 60's. In terms of any thunderstorm organization 0-6KM bulk shear is modeled to be around 30-40 knots ahead of the front which may lead to thunderstorm organization into linear segments with a gusty wind threat. Of course this far out timing of the front can have a big impact on instability. Lapse rates also look poor for any strong to severe storms too. So will continue to monitor over the next several days.

Model guidance is showing a zonal to transient ridge pattern over the area for midweek; this will keep things mainly dry, but another frontal passage is possible either Wednesday or Thursday depending on how the timing works out. Temperatures are trending warmer, still well into the 70s for both Tuesday and Wednesday...it looks to finally cool back down closer to climo by the end of next week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
120 pm update...

High pressure remains in control for this period with VFR conditions expected at all terminals.

Northerly winds under 10 knots this afternoon become light and variable this evening. Friday around 14z east to southeast winds pick up to 5 kts.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in the afternoons and evenings.

Tuesday...restrictions possible in rain showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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