Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Concord, NH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A pressure gradient across the region continues to weaken this afternoon as high pressure inches closer. Likewise, breezy winds look to simmer down through the rest of the day with skies generally clearing out south of the mountains. Upslope snow showers will continue this afternoon in the north, with overcast skies and snow tapering a little after sunset.

Mostly calm and clear skies will allow for some radiational cooling, however the setup looks to be quite inefficient. Some clouds do work their way into the area and could limit how cold some places bottom out. Lows in the upper teens are expected in the mountains, with mid to upper 20s likely along the coast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Friday morning, partly cloudy skies are expected as low pressure moves in from the west. Southwesterly winds should gradually pick up through the day as a pressure gradient tightens a little over New England. Winds will struggle to gust over 30mph, due to inefficient mixing in the afternoon.
Temperatures should be a hair warmer on Friday, with lower 50s in the coastal plain and upper 30s in the north.

Friday night, a shortwave over the Great Lakes moves eastward, bringing some measurable rainfall to the area. Unlike the previous system, this system looks to track much farther north, which will cleanly put New England in the warm sector of the low. Guidance shows the passage of the low Friday night with precipitation likely wrapping up early Saturday morning.
Rainfall amounts will be light with generally no more than a quarter of an inch expected for most.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Message: Active weather pattern in store into next week.
Temps remain near to below normal keeping snow possible for the higher terrain.

Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated thru this weekend. Early next week system may bring some wintry weather to the mtns with the right track.

Forecast Details: By Sat morning precip will largely have ended based on current forecast guidance...but the surface front itself will likely not work thru the forecast area until mixing deepens during the day. I anticipate that light winds in the morning will quickly become breezy to gusty after sunrise.
Without real strong CAA behind the front however...Sat looks like the warmest day of the extended as some areas hit the 60s.

Outside of lingering upslope rain and snow showers the next precip maker arrives late Sun into Mon. Ensemble guidance shows this being driven by a rather strong trof for this time of year...especially at the southern end of the trof. Both the upper jet and temps in the trof are along the lines of a once in a decade or even once in a generation event for mid November.
This kind of guidance indicates a potentially strong system.
This is more or less what cluster analysis shows as well. There is relatively small difference in timing across ensemble members...but what differs is strength and the resulting QPF.
Right now there is not much to do with that portion of the forecast
With timing fairly close
NBM PoP looks fair and I am fine with likely to categorical PoP with the initial warm advection wave of precip. With precip falling largely outside of our QPF period...I am not too concerned with precip type a chance of rain or snow into the foothills describes the range of outcomes at this point.

Temps overall do appear to be cool enough thru the extended to continue upslope snow showers and potentially cool enough with the early week system to continue building snowpack in the mtns.

AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Short Term....Mostly VFR expected this afternoon with some pockets of MVFR possible with some upslope snow showers north of the mountains. Any MVFR improves to VFR tonight as snow showers taper off. VFR continues through the day on Friday. MVFR CIGs are possible Friday night as a shortwave moves through the area.

Long Term...Conditions will be improving behind the front Sat but lingering MVFR CIGs are possible north of the mtns...including HIE. Later Sun into Mon a system will move thru with areas of IFR possible. Precip type will be rain at the TAF sites
but MVFR VIS is possible in the heavier rain
and given the WAA pattern IFR CIGs could develop.

MARINE
Short Term...SCA northwesterly winds expected this afternoon as a pressure gradient starts to loosen over the waters. Seas this afternoon should be around 4-8 feet, lowering to 2-4ft by tomorrow morning. Winds calm down overnight with westerly winds of 8-12kts expected Friday morning. Through the day Friday, winds will start picking up out of the southwest, and will increase to SCA levels by the end of the day Friday. SCA conditions continue through Saturday morning.

Long Term
Aside from some brief breaks
SCA conditions are expected thru most of the extended. By the middle of next week strong cold advection over the waters may result in another round of gale force wind gusts for parts of the waters.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The threat for coastal flooding is decreasing as the high astronomical tides are being met with a negative surge due to strong offshore winds. The best chance for nearing minor flood stage at any location is Sunday as winds turn slightly back onshore, but at that point we will be past the peak with the tide expected around 11.0 MLLW.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ151-153.