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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Constantia, NY

June 25, 2024 2:13 AM EDT (06:13 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:25 AM   Sunset 8:49 PM
Moonrise 10:53 PM   Moonset 8:08 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantia, NY
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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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619 FXUS61 KBGM 250545 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 145 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The rest of tonight will be cool and clear with patchy valley fog over Delaware river basin. Tuesday will be mainly sunny and warmer, with temperatures back up into the 80s. Wednesday has a chance at seeing scattered severe thunderstorms once again with best chances in the Southern Tier and Northeast PA during the afternoon and evening hours.


115 AM Update...

Skies are clear across the region with winds becoming light and variable. Temperatures are dropping a bit more than forecasted, with some of the cooler rural valley locations already in the lower 50s. Areas east of Binghamton which did not see much sunshine today, and therefore did not warm up and dry the ground out are seeing valley fog forming...this includes the valleys of Otsego and Delaware counties. From Binghamton west, it does not appear much, if any fog will form tonight, as overnight lows do not reach the crossover temperatures in most cases.

725 PM Update...

Updated the wind and wind gust forecast to match current observations. As a low level jet moves out of the area, wind gusts are expected to decrease through the next few hours.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

145 PM Update...

Winds have become quite gusty this afternoon as a 850 mb jet passes over head with that wind able to mix down to the surface at times. Most of the area has seen gusts of at least 30 with hill tops getting over 40 mph and even a few locations getting 45 to 48 mph. The 850 mb jet is moving east through the rest of the morning with winds calming down from west to east and with loss of mixing after sunset, the rest of the area will have winds lessen. Tonight with high pressure building in, valley wilds will likely go calm. Fog was added to the grids mainly for the upper susquehanna river tributaries as well as the Mohawk valley as the clouds wont clear until near sunset so there will be more moisture and a lower threshold for fog formation. East of I81, dry air has been mixing in with sunnier skies as well as drier so fog formation will be tough.

Tomorrow warms back up with the trough axis east of the region and ridging builds in. Flow aloft becomes more SW bringing in higher dew points once again. The region is looking to stay dry but some of the models are trying to develop an MCS in the northern plains tonight that tries to propagate through the Great Lakes reaching our area by the afternoon. Confidence is low that will happen as the flow aloft is zonal so any propagating wave should be more west to east rather than dipping south so lowered precipitation chances in the afternoon.
Overnight there is a shortwave digging in so that is when there is better chances as showers and thunderstorms.

320 PM Update...

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms returns Wednesday, mostly during the afternoon evening as a positively tilted trough dropping south of out Canada moves over the Great Lakes region and a surface cold front beings to approach from the west as well. Guidance does show a shortwave moving across the area ahead of these two features that could be the initial catalyst for storms as early as late-morning or early afternoon, but there is uncertainty in its path and timing over the CWA
There is the potential for some locally strong, perhaps even severe, storms this day, however CAPE values do look to be lower than earlier this morning, generally peaking around 1000-1500 J/kg, but the NAM is higher, closer to 2000 J/kg, but we are outside of its wheelhouse. Shear peaks around 40-50 knots and mid-level lapse rates are around 6.5-7.0 degrees C/km. Winds look to turn southwesterly ahead of the upper trough mainly over NE PA into the southern Catskills sending dew points in these areas into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, and this region is where there is a slight risk out by the SPC. Much of CNY is currently outlooked under a marginal risk, so this day will be closely monitored. High temperatures Wednesday range from the low and mid 80s over CNY to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees over portions of the Twin Tiers, NE PA and southern Catskills.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to be scattered about Wednesday night as the cold front moves through. Low temperatures are expected to range from the mid 50s to the low 60s.

Surface high pressure is then expected to build in from the west promoting dry conditions Thursday through Thursday night.
Northwest winds will set up a cool day for most on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 70s, except for the Wyoming Valley which could still approach 80 degrees. A pretty good radiational cooling night sets up Thursday night under clear skies as lows are expected to fall in the upper 40s and low 50s.

320 PM Update...

High pressure remains in control Friday with highs expected to return to the upper 70s to the low 80s. Another shortwave trough and surface cold front is expected to bring the chance for showers and storms unfortunately for the weekend before drier air pushes back in early next week. Highs Saturday range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s and are expected to cool slightly on Sunday.


140 AM Update

VFR conditions expected through the period. Skies are nearly completely clear over the region currently. Valley fog is forming over the eastern counties where it is already cooler and humidity levels remain high. For our taf sites, there is a slight chance (10-20%) for patchy fog to form near RME over the next several hours, as overnight lows approach the crossover temperature (55F) here. ELM looks to remain above their crossover temperature of 49F, even with the clear skies overhead, so widespread fog in the Chemung River Valley is not expected at this time. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected areawide for most of the day today.

Some mid level clouds will approach toward sunset and into the evening hours. There is a chance for some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms after 00z, mainly for the NY terminals; but confidence was too low to include in the tafs this far out in time. Will monitor trends in the latest model guidance/CAMS.


Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night...Restrictions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms; especially Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms possible.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 30 mi56 minSSW 6G8 67°F 29.8459°F
45215 32 mi48 min 67°F 67°F2 ft

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSYR SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL,NY 7 sm19 minW 0610 smA Few Clouds64°F55°F73%29.89
KFZY OSWEGO COUNTY,NY 20 sm19 minWSW 0310 smClear63°F57°F83%29.88
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Wind History graph: SYR
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GEOS Local Image of north east   

Montague, NY,

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