Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Constantia, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
315 PM Update...

The front has made its way through most of the region early this afternoon, currently working its way south trough NEPA.
South of the front, MLCAPE is approaching 1000 to 1500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear between 30 to 35. Initial storms that have developed have struggled to develop a tall core so there is likely some mid level stability the storms are struggling to overcome. Later today, as an upper level trough digs in, 500 mb heights will slowly fall helping to cool the upper atmosphere and erode the stable layer. By the time the stable layer is eroded, the surface front may be south of our region so the severe threat is likely limited to our southern most counties.
With the greater shear today, there is a better chance for hail to the size of quarters as well as downburst. High precipitable water values remain so heavy rain is likely to guaranteed in any thunderstorm that develops this afternoon. Shear vectors in the low levels are aligned with shear vectors aloft so back building and training is also a concern.

Tonight, high pressure builds in and with plenty of low level moisture in place, fog development is likely in all the river valleys with areas of dense fog. Tomorrow, high pressure remains in place for most of the day with chances of precipitation near 0 though there will be increasing clouds through the day with a warm front moving north. As the warm front lifts in Wednesday night, some elevated instability will move in. The 850 mb low level jet overnight is looking fairly weak, at only 15 to 20 knots mainly in NEPA and there is not any strong shortwaves moving through, chances of precipitation were kept on the lower side without much to trigger storms.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
200 AM Forecast...

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the late evening hours Thursday night. Instability decreases with the lost of daytime heating, limiting the potential for any strong storms lingering into the overnight hours. The trough that will support the showers/storms lifts north late overnight, allowing conditions to dry out as a ridge of high pressure begins to build into the region.

A ridge continues to build into the region Friday. Weak waves will try to kick off some afternoon showers and non-severe thunderstorms.
Drier air in place may be tough to overcome though, especially over CNY. While chances are low, the best shower/storm chances will be over NEPA and the Catskills where there will be slightly more moisture available. Any showers/storms that develop come to an end by Friday night.

Temperatures both nights will be in the 60s. Temperatures will climb into the 80s on Friday. Dew points in the mid to to low 70s will result in muggy conditions.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
200 AM Forecast...

The weekend will start out mostly dry but a warm front will move through on Saturday, which could support showers and thunderstorms late in the day. Conditions then dry out overnight before shower chances increase and become a bit more widespread Sunday as a cold front approaches and eventually sweeps through the region. There is uncertainty on the timing of the front as the GFS is quick to move it through while the ECMWF is much slower with it. Due to this uncertainty, shower chances will carry over into Monday given the slower solutions, but then high pressure builds into the region following the frontal passage. Drier conditions are expected by Monday night and last through at least Tuesday. Spotty showers may be possible Tuesday but with dry air in place, it may be a challenge for anything to develop.

It will be a warm and muggy weekend after the warm front passes through. Highs will be 80s and low 90s with dewpoints in the 60s and low 70s. The cold front will be weak and brings little relief as temperatures will remain in the 80s to start next week. Saturday night will be the warmest night of this period with lows only in the mid 60s to low 70s but then 60s are expected for the rest of the nights into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Tonight, fog develops across the region with all terminals with differing severity of conditions. Confidence for fog formation at SYR and RME is increasing, and has been added into the 00Z TAF package.

High pressure in place tomorrow means that VFR conditions are expected after the fog lifts.

Outlook...

Thursday...Restrictions possible with some showers and thunderstorms around.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday into Sunday...Scattered showers/storms possible and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.