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LOZ044 Expires:202311301030;;636707 Fzus51 Kbuf 300548 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1248 am est Thu nov 30 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-301030- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1248 am est Thu nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Overnight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Rain. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Saturday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain showers likely Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 300546 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1246 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
After a cloudy night, warmer conditions are expected on Thursday, with also plenty of sunshine in the forecast. Our next system arrives on Friday, with periods of rain for Friday and cooler temperatures. The weekend will have additional shower chances with mild, above average temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

1230 AM Update...

Conditions remain quiet tonight with minor changes made to update temperatures and dew points using a blend of current observations and NBM. Otherwise the previous forecast remains on track at this time.

930 PM Update...
Just made a few minor tweaks to previous forecast. There is a small chance for a few flurries in our far northern counties.
Clouds and south winds will lead to nearly steady temperatures in the 20s to low 30s overnight.

530 PM Update...
Made some minor tweaks to temperatures. Added slight chance POPs which are mainly flurries in far north central NY. A weak short wave was rippling through the flow leading to low-level warm air advection. The wave was moisture starved and the low-levels were quiet dry so most of our radar echoes are virga. However, far enough north there could be a few flurries into the overnight.
Otherwise, no significant changes.

225 PM Update...

After a chilly day, warm air advection will start to take hold late tonight and tomorrow. Much warmer conditions expected for the region on Thursday with some sunshine as well, with high pressure building into the area. High temperatures should climb well into the 40s.

Our next system will start approaching the region tomorrow night, with increasing clouds through the overnight hours.
Temperatures will likely remain above freezing, with lows Friday morning in the mid to upper 30s. Any rainfall with the approaching system will likely hold off until later Friday, but there is a slight chance for light rain before sunrise across our northern forecast area. However, forecast soundings show very dry air aloft, with just increasing low level moisture and some low level moisture enhancement east of Lake Ontario. So at this time, it looks like more of a chance for some low stratus and possibly some patchy drizzle developing.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
230 PM Update...

A weak cold front will drop south Friday as a system moves in from the west. With an upper jet bisecting the southern half of the region putting the Northern Tier of PA and north-central NY on the left exit region of this jet. These areas will see the highest rain chances and with higher QPF amounts further north. Temperatures at 850mb will be right around freezing, but the lower levels will be warmer, so just rain is expected during the daytime hours Southwest flow ahead of the front will advect in warmer air and help push temps into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Friday night, a weak ridge moves in with drier conditions for most. However, some lingering showers may remain present, especially over portions of north- central NY. With temps falling near freezing overnight, snow will mix with rain or brief snow showers will be possible, mainly in the northern half of Oneida County. No snow accumulation is expected at this time. The lows Friday night will range from the low 30s to upper 30s.

A weak surface low pressure system will move into the eastern Great Lakes region early Saturday morning. This system will bring an additional round of showers across CNY while areas south of the Southern Tier should remain mostly dry. If showers lingering into the overnight hours, light snow showers may be possible once again over N. Oneida. Drier air is quick to move in from the west though, so shower chances are low. Temperatures climb into the 40s during the day and then fall into the 30s overnight, with most staying above freezing.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
230 PM Update...

The long term is filled with multiple chances for precipitation as the pattern remains active. The weekend will end with a weak disturbance passing through across NEPA & the Catskills as a stacked low passes well to the north. With these systems, rain will continue into Monday morning. There may be a brief break from showers Monday before an upper level trough moves through as the low continues to spin to the north. While rain will be the main ptype to start, snow may mix in overnight as colder air begins to drop in from south.
Northwest flow behind the passing trough will kick off lake effect precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday. There is some uncertainty with timing of these multiple rounds of showers, so PoPs were capped at high-end chance (54%). Temperatures will be mild Sunday but then trend cooler through the first half of next week.

There is some uncertainty near the end of this forecast period as well. The GFS has a ridge Tuesday with mild temperatures. This is followed by a low moving through on Wednesday. Other model solutions lean toward colder conditions, which would then support lake effect snow showers Tuesday. With drier air moving in and the aforementioned low passing south, these solutions are drier by midweek. Being a week out, this forecast will stay close to NBM for temps and PoPs for now, but tweaks will certainly be needed in future updates as confidence increases.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions are in place tonight at all terminals with RME and SYR possibly experiencing a brief 2-3 hour window of MVFR ceilings between 09-12Z. Although confidence is low on this occurring, so it is covered by a TEMPO group.

The rest of tomorrow through the TAF period is expected to be VFR. Winds will start to increase late in the morning and early afternoon with gusts nearing 20 knots for ITH, ELM and BGM out of the south and southwest. There is potential for LLWS out of the SW heading into tomorrow evening. Guidance does support it developing around 00Z lasting until the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Low level wind shear is expected Thursday night through early Friday morning, but conditions will be VFR.

Friday...Restrictions likely, especially afternoon and evening as a weather system brings rain and fog to the area. Some wet snow could mix at times over the hilltops.

Saturday through Monday...Possible restrictions due to rain showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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