Constantia, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Constantia, NY

June 17, 2024 11:03 PM EDT (03:03 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 8:48 PM
Moonrise 3:37 PM   Moonset 1:19 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202406180315;;194584 Fzus51 Kbuf 172103 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 503 pm edt Mon jun 17 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-180315- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 503 pm edt Mon jun 17 2024

Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tuesday - South winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tuesday night - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Wednesday - South winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.

Wednesday night - South winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Thursday - Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Friday - Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.

Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 62 degrees.

No data

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantia, NY
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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 927 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Hot and humid conditions expected through the week, with the worst conditions arriving tomorrow and persisting with little relief through the rest of the week.

920 PM Update...
Thunderstorm activity has diminished over the CWA as daytime heating has subsided and an outflow boundary surged ahead of the MCS, undercutting the instability that was present. Showers are expected to stick around over the Twin Tiers for the next couple of hours before dissipating. The forecast remains on track with very hot and humid conditions for the rest of the week.

625 PM Update...

As expected, thunderstorms have developed across the Finger Lakes and western Southern Tier. Storms are expected to continue to develop over this region, moving to the SSE through the evening hours. Gusty winds are the main threat with these storms, especially along the leading edge of the storms as DCAPE here is 800-1000j/kg. CAPE values are high, around 1500j/kg ahead of the storms up to the Broome/Cortland/Susquehanna county lines. East of here, CAPE drops down to below 1000j/kg. CAMs show storms dissipating as they approach this area, but given their current structure and motion, confidence in this occurring is low.

300 PM Forecast...
Prior to the onset of extended heat and increasing humidity this week, parts of the region (mainly the Finger Lakes and Central Southern Tier) will be impacted by some isolated to scattered convection from compact upper level disturbance (MCV) currently located over Western New York and the Niagara Frontier.

This feature will drift east late this afternoon and evening, helping to increase initiate isolated to scattered late afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms across the Finger Lakes Region and Southern Tier of New York, with little or no precipitation further to the east.

SPC placed approximately the western 40 percent of the CWA in a MRGL risk for severe later this afternoon into this evening as a result of this remnant convective disturbance and the increase in MU CAPE to between 1500-2000 j/kg based on the latest HRRR and NAM guidance. Best potential for any storms to push SVR criteria will be across the Central Southern Tier and Western Finger Lakes over the next several hours where ML (0-1 KM) EHI values reach around 1.5 M2/S2 late this afternoon and this evening. upper-level ridge continues to slowly build over the the region. Temps on track to reach forecast highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will continue to rise into Tuesday, up to the low to mid 90s, with heat indices of 95 to 100. A Heat Advisory will be in effect Noon Tuesday for portions of Central NY and NE PA, and will last through Thursday evening. With overnight temperatures not dipping much past 70 degrees, there won't be much relief from the hot and humid conditions.

A warm and rather muggy night is in store for the region with variable amounts of mainly mid level clouds and a light southerly wind. Low temps will range from the mid 60s across the Western Catskills and Northern Poconos to the upper 60s and Low 70s across much of the Finger Lakes.

One of the challenges for this forecast will be chances for thunderstorms from another one or two perturbations riding on top of the ridge. Although heights will rise another few DAM on Tuesday, the mid level cap probably won't be strong enough to negate select areas of terrain-induced/lake breeze boundary convection from occurring.

Currently, there are only a few guidance solutions that depict thunderstorm initiation for Tuesday late afternoon into the evening, so there is a possibility for storms for Central NY, mainly west of I-81. We'll keep monitoring near-term guidance for changes in solutions and chances for storm initiation Tuesday.

Heat dome remains overhead through the period. Overnight lows will struggle to dip below 70 most places. High pressure will dip a bit further south on Wednesday and this will allow flow to become more out of the west-northwest and increase potential for isolated thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as our area will fall a bit closer to the periphery of the high pressure system. Instability will likely peak above 2000 J/kg during the daytime hours, and although there will be some CIN, models are indicating potential for weak perturbations within the flow that could be enough to break the cap. The heat will still be an issue Wednesday with heat index values near 100 or even above in urban areas. However, thunderstorms may provide some brief relief where they occur.

The heat will continue into the extended period. Thursday will be another hot day with most of the area approaching or exceeding a 100F heat index once again. Thursday could end up being the hottest day of the week, but this will be dependent on afternoon convection.

Guidance suggests that 500mb heights could finally begin to fall Friday into the upcoming weekend, which should lead to a (subtle) cooling trend. However, heat indices could still approach or exceed 100F across the southern potion of the CWA Friday afternoon. Even into Sat and Sun, heat indices in the valleys of southern NY and NE PA could still top out in the low to mid 90s.

The falling heights will be accompanied by a slightly better chc for daily convection Friday through the weekend, which would also produce at least a bit of relief from the heat.

A line of showers and thunderstorms are currently pushing through the Twin Tiers. ELM is the only terminal seeing restrictions as heavy rain is bouncing vsby in and out of IFR.
This should occur for another hour or so before the rain dissipates. The forecast challenge for these TAFs is if fog will occur at ELM during the overnight hours. Heavy rain soaked the ground for a couple hours, dropping dewpoint depressions down to 1-2 degrees. Winds are strong now, moving WNW at 8mph, but if we can get the winds to go calm later this evening, we should be able to see fog development. Cirrus blow off from the storms across PA and NY will hinder cooling tonight which will also impact fog formation. Given we are missing some needed ingredients for fog formation, my confidence was not high enough to include IFR in this set of TAFs. Hopefully we will be able to get a better picture of the situation in a few hours and be able to lock it down in the next TAFs.

All our other terminals are expected to be VFR through the period with high pressure overhead. There may be some more afternoon showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, but confidence that these will impact a terminal was way too low to include in the TAFs.


Monday Night...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday through Friday...Spotty restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms, with probabilities increasing slowly in the later part of the period.

PA...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ009-015-018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ016-017.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 30 mi45 minSSE 2.9G5.1 77°F 30.0265°F
45215 32 mi37 min 73°F 67°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 82 mi63 minSSW 9.9G15 79°F 30.07
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 83 mi45 min 78°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSYR SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL,NY 7 sm69 minS 0510 smPartly Cloudy81°F61°F51%30.08
KFZY OSWEGO COUNTY,NY 20 sm69 minSSW 0510 smClear77°F63°F61%30.07
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Wind History graph: SYR
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast   

Montague, NY,

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