Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Constantia, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 5:03PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 9:41 AM EST (14:41 UTC) Moonrise 4:45AMMoonset 2:08PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202001211615;;288295 Fzus51 Kbuf 211149 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 649 Am Est Tue Jan 21 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-211615- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 649 Am Est Tue Jan 21 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through Wednesday morning...
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Scattered snow showers. Numerous snow showers late. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Scattered snow showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of snow and rain showers Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Rain and snow likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 37 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantia, NY
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location: 43.21, -76.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 211146 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 646 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. Aside from lingering, light lake effect flurries today and tonight, high pressure over the Mid Atlantic states will provide our region with mainly quiet weather, and slowly warming conditions this week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 645 AM Update . Minor adjustments made to chase fickle early morning temperatures, dewpoints and sky cover . otherwise, forecast on track to see temperatures rise into the low and mid 20s for highs this afternoon with mainly sunny skies over NEPA and variable cloudiness across CNY. Wind backing to west will push solid cloud cover now over western NY back through portions of the central Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region with some erosion of moisture on the leading edge.

Previous discussion . Lake effect conditions continue to plague central NY early this morning with varying degrees of cloud cover and patchy snow flurry activity. This has resulted in a potpourri of temperatures ranging from near 20 in the western Finger Lakes to near zero on the Tug Hill and Catskills, with everything in between and changing by the hour. High resolution models have performed poorly at capturing the moisture in RH, reflectivity and QPF fields, so it's seat of the pants, old school forecasting time. Current laminar flow from the NW becomes increasingly sheared today while backing to the west below 850 mb. This should disrupt the upslope lake moisture/clouds by this afternoon and knock down the flurries with partly sunny conditions returning to CNY and mostly sunny for NEPA. Frosty morning temperatures should rebound into the 20s today.

Then a weak disturbance moving through the top of the upper level ridge brings an increase in mid level moisture by tonight. Sounding profiles suggest a distinct dry layer below 700 mb but saturation below 900 mb. I get the sense that we will be in a seeder-feeder situation with areas of flurries rekindling on the 260-280 trajectory from this evening well into the night. Shallow moisture, warmer than the dendritic layer, also introduces the possibility for freezing drizzle. The main focus for this mention of light precipitation will be along the Onondaga-Madison border through Northern Oneida.

After that . models suggest a pronounced backing of the low-mid level flow toward the west and southwest on Wednesday with a stronger indicaton of subsidence developing over the forecast area. Limited moisture will signal sunshine, while the return to southwest flow indicates substantial warming. After another start in the low to mid teens . we're looking for temperatures on Wednesday to climb well into the 30s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure remains in control with dry weather across the area. As the surface high starts to slide more eastward towards the coast, a shift to warm, southwesterly flow across the NE US will bring in much warmer weather with above average temperatures peaking in the mid 30s to low 40s. Overnight lows stay cold, especially into Thursday morning with mainly clear skies, a dry airmass, and lingering snowpack. Temperatures Wednesday night bottom out in the teens, then lows Thursday night come in slightly warmer in the low 20s. High clouds start to build in for Thursday and Friday ahead of the next storm system, but any snow is still looking to hold off until the weekend.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Deterministic models and ensembles continue to develop a coastal low around the Delmarva, tracking up the east coast into the weekend. Latest guidance tracks this slightly more to the south of us than in previous runs, keeping temperatures a couple degrees colder as morning lows in the 20s to low 30s Saturday peak in the 30s. With temperatures aloft falling back below freezing, this should allow for precipitation to come in mainly as snow, mixing in with rain mainly across the river valleys and lake plain during the afternoon. Snow lingers into Sunday as the surface low tracks into New England and finally towards the Canadian maritimes. Drier air starts to work back in Sunday night into Monday with a ridge building across the southern US, but with west/Northwest flow and another shortwave moving through, rain/snow showers with some lake enhancement will remain in the forecast across central NY through the early part of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR with variable ceilings today with areas of MVFR, particularly from KELM-KITH-KSYR-KRME as low cloud shield over WNY lifts back to the northeast later this morning and afternoon Tonight. VFR NO CIG expected at most locations, with MVFR resulting from lake effect snow plumes settling into mainly the KRME terminal after about 03Z.

Winds becoming westerly 5-10 knots this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Friday . VFR.

Saturday . Chance IFR. Snow possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . JAB NEAR TERM . JAB SHORT TERM . HLC LONG TERM . HLC AVIATION . JAB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 30 mi54 min SSE 7 G 8.9 13°F 1032.4 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 82 mi42 min SW 6 G 8 20°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 83 mi60 min 18°F 1032.5 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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N10
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G22
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G28
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N14
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G24
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N20
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N13
G18
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NE12
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N9
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SE10
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G21
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G26
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G31
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G23
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W16
G25
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G41
W24
G34
W27
G36
W23
G32
NW27
G57
W12
G34

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY7 mi48 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy8°F3°F83%1033.3 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi48 minN 09.00 miFair5°F0°F79%1033.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3W7NW6W7NW11W11W8W8W9W12W10W10W10W10W8W6W8N3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW22
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NW12NW11NW10NW10W10NW13NW9NW11NW10N8N6CalmN10N9N8N8N11N105NE3CalmCalm
2 days agoE9E10E11E13E10E9E10E8
G19
SE6SE11--S9
G18
SW8S7S8S6SW6W9W12
G23
W15W13W18
G24
W19W14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.