Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantia, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 090819 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 419 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. Summertime high pressure builds into the region today with hot and humid conditions and only a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Low pressure will track up the east coast as a cold front approaches from the west Friday. Both of these features will increase our chances for showers and thunderstorms as we head into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. 415 AM Update . After early fog, heat and humidity will be the main issue today, before attention turns to a system moving up the coast Friday.

Fog developed quite early for the Delaware basin, in the wake of convection late yesterday. It has since spread to the usual suspects in valleys of the Twin Tiers, as well as Wyoming and Pike Counties in PA and Cortland-Chenango-Southern Madison Counties in NY. With moisture from prior rainfall, and elevated dewpoints of this humid air mass in general; fog will continue to be dense in spots, with less than a quarter mile visibility at times, until it can lift and mix out around 8 AM.

Though it has already been very warm and muggy, the peak heat and humidity will occur today as a summertime upper high drifts directly over the region. Heat indices will be well into the 90s areawide except of the highest elevations; even upper 90s for the northern Finger Lakes and the New York Thruway Corridor. While a Heat Advisory remains in place for most of Central New York, proper precautions and drinking plenty of fluids are worthwhile throughout the area today. The upper high will provide thermal capping/subsidence to very much limit convection today. However, any that manages to develop will have very weak flow and thus could cause brief localized heavy rainfall. The vast majority of the area will be mostly sunny and dry.

Another quiet muggy night is anticipated tonight, with any isolated convection quickly ending with loss of diurnal heating.

Friday starts off benign, but a coastal/semi-tropical system moving up the coast could make things interesting in the afternoon-evening. Confidence is low, however, with a dichotomy in models. One school of thought keeps locally heavy rainfall potential to our east; the other brings it into areas that have already had recent heavy rain and thus could pose issues for some of our counties. The location of current rapid development of the low suggests that the more eastern solutions may be favored/better initialized, which could help limit our heavy rain potential, but it is still too early to say.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. The short term begins with a low confidence forecast for Friday night into early Saturday. Model solutions vary widely, regarding a coastal system moving northward. The NAM12 and GFS solutions hammer our eastern and central forecast areas with heavy rain, while the Euro and Canadian Regional push the system out to sea. We will continue to monitor this weather event.

A trough sliding through the Great Lakes into WNY will trigger afternoon thunderstorms Saturday, some with downpours and gusty winds. Temperatures are forecast to peak in the middle 80s along the I-81 corridor.

The trough will lie over the forecast area through Sunday and Sunday night. Additional showers and thunderstorms will affect NY and PA as temperatures peak in the lower 80s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A persistent northeastern trough will continue to hang over NY and PA for the beginning of the new work week. This will cause unsettled weather to persist through Tuesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will form Monday and Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon hours as temperatures climb into the lower 80s.

A high pressure ridge with very warm air will nudge through the Ohio Valley Wednesday, bringing an end to our precipitation. Temperatures will push well into the upper 80s by Wednesday afternoon.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Moisture from earlier rainfall, and generally humid conditions yet with a general lack of cloud cover, is leading to fog formation early this morning for several terminals; see TAFs for specifics. KSYR should avoid fog, and some clouds around KAVP will probably prevent visibility from getting worse than MVFR. The other terminals however are likely to experience at least windows of IFR-fuel alternate conditions, and the fog will be especially thick at KELM which will often be at airport minimums. After that burns off between 12Z-13Z, VFR for all terminals Thursday. An isolated pop up shower or thunderstorm cannot totally be ruled out in the afternoon but by far the most probable outcome for each terminal will be dry weather/VFR. With high pressure in charge, winds will be calm/variable to light south-southeast at or below 5 knots.

Outlook .

Late Thursday night through Saturday night . mainly VFR with a chance of brief restrictions due to afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Chance of IFR valley fog at KELM each morning.

Sunday through Monday . VFR expected with cooler and drier air moving in. Still may see some afternoon showers and storms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-055. Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ044-045-056.

SYNOPSIS . MDP NEAR TERM . MDP SHORT TERM . DJP LONG TERM . DJP AVIATION . MDP

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	30 mi	42 min	S 8 G 8.9	74°F			1013.1 hPa	69°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	82 mi	30 min	SSW 7 G 8	77°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	83 mi	42 min		75°F			1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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Last 24hr

S8 G11

S8 G11

S8 G11

SW7 G11

W8 G13

W13 G18

W8 G12

W8

W8 G11

W6

W6

W4

W6

W6

W4

S4

S7 G10

S9 G12

S8 G11

S8 G12

S7 G10

S8

S7 G10

S8

1 day ago

SE7

SE8 G12

SE11 G15

SE8 G13

SE11 G17

SE13 G18

S10 G15

SE7 G13

S6 G11

N4

N5 G8

NE6 G9

NE5 G9

S8

S9

S10 G14

SE8 G12

S11 G15

S11

S12 G16

S12 G18

S8 G13

S9 G12

S8 G11

2 days ago

S5

SE3

E2

SE2

NW2

N5

NE8

N6

N8

N8 G11

NE8

NE6

NE6

NE5

NE4 G7

NE4

NE3

E2 G5

E1

SE7 G11

SE9

SE6

SE5 G9

SE8 G11

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY	7 mi	36 min	ESE 5	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	70°F	66°F	87%	1013.2 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY	20 mi	36 min	SE 3	10.00 mi	Fair	71°F	68°F	90%	1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)

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S4

Calm

S7

SW7

W8

SW5

SW4

3

5 G17

SW11

Calm

S16

S5

S7

S6

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S5

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Calm

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1 day ago

E5

E5

E7

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S4

SE10 G15

SE7

SE10

SE11

S8 G14

S11 G16

SE11

SE12

S15

S7

S10 G19

S8

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S8

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S7

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S5

2 days ago

E4

E3

Calm

Calm

NE3

E5

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3

E8

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N5

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NE7

NE5

NE5

N4

N6

Calm

Calm

E5

SE7

SE7

SE6

SE4

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (4,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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