Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Constantia, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 4:31PM Saturday December 7, 2019 7:33 PM EST (00:33 UTC) Moonrise 2:18PMMoonset 2:22AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201912072245;;991620 Fzus51 Kbuf 071453 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 953 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-072245- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 953 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm est this afternoon...
Rest of today..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Scattered snow showers, then scattered flurries late. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..South winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Rain and snow showers likely during the day, then lake effect snow showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 41 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantia, NY
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location: 43.21, -76.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 080017 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 717 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. Mostly clear, calm and cold overnight as high pressure builds over the region. Dry and seasonable weather is expected Sunday, followed by periods of rain and warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Then, turning much colder mid to late week with lake effect snow showers around.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/.

710 PM Update . Near term forecast is on track. Lingering lake clouds have shifted north from Cortland to Auburn and Syracuse. Otherwise, skies are clear and winds have decoupled . now variable less than 5 mph. Temperatures are dropping quickly this evening as expected . with many areas already into the teens (where skies are clear). The cold spot is Woodgate, in northern Oneida county, which has already dropped to 6 degrees as of 7 PM. Adjusted overnight lows closer to the colder NBM guidance. Clouds lifting north into Oneida county should halt temperatures from falling much further by late evening (hopefully keeping readings above zero).

Previous Discussion Below

Expansive surface high pressure will provide a mostly clear and cold night. Strong radiational cooling is expected, especially during the first half of the night. Lows will likely drop to the single digits across portions of Oneida county and the western Catskills with teens expected elsewhere. Temperatures may begin to rise a bit after midnight as high pressure begins to move east of the area along with increasing higher clouds and south winds.

Temperatures moderate a bit on Sunday as the high pressure system moves east of the area, and a warm front pushes through bringing a southerly flow. Highs are expected to be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. With a tightening pressure gradient, it will become breezy during the late morning and afternoon hours. The strongest winds are expected across ridges and north/south valleys of the Finger Lakes and Susquehanna region. In these areas expect south winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Elsewhere, look for south winds of 8-15 mph with gusts near 25mph.

Otherwise, expecting a partly sunny day with increasing clouds late in the day in the western zones ahead of the next system.

It should remain dry with increasing clouds prior to midnight Sunday night. Temperatures fall off a few degrees in the evening, especially east . bottoming out between 30-35. Temperatures then slowly rise a few degrees after midnight. There will be a low chance for rain showers after midnight (possibly mixed with isolated pockets of light freezing rain or sleet east and north) but precipitation amounts will be very light, under 0.05" by daybreak Monday. Temperatures should be above freezing, in the mid to upper 30s just about everywhere by daybreak. Decided to not yet mention any wintry mix in the HWO, as confidence is very low in any measurable ice.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Lake runner pushes warm air and moisture into the area Monday. System is fast moving and with the zonal flow does not tap deeply into the subtropical moisture lurking over the SE and gulf so while moderate rain and isolated heavy rain is possible, hydrological concerns are limited for now. Track does put us in the preferred entrance region of the jet so steady moderate rain is expected Monday into Monday night before a dry slot works in ahead of the cold front. That front passes through early Tuesday followed by colder air that slowly turns the rain to snow. Some brief anafront precipitation in the colder air could give us a quick coating of snow, but by Tuesday night just snow showers are expected, perhaps being lake enhanced before morning, with additional light accumulations.

Temperature trend through the period will be non-diurnal as they rise all day Monday and Monday night, then begin to fall on Tuesday with the cold advection.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. 255 PM UPDATE .

Long term is generally a tranquil period with a slow warm up. Some lake effect snow showers are possible early on, then The upper trough and surface high slides east allowing for a southwest flow to develop bringing increasingly milder air into the area.

Once again made some minor adjustments to the period in the weather and pop grids otherwise have stayed the course.

Previous discussion continues below.

430 AM Update . We return to an Arctic regime later this week.

Strong cold air advection will begin Tuesday night which continues right through Wednesday night. 850mb temperatures start Wednesday morning around minus-10 Celsius but further plummet to between minus-15 and minus-20 Celsius by Wednesday evening, which persists into Thursday. This will indeed be a cold air mass with highs of lower 20s-lower 30s Wednesday and then only upper teens-upper 20s Thursday as the Arctic high passes overhead. Overnight lows for Wednesday night-Thursday night, will be mainly teens but perhaps some single digits.

With low level flow veering westerly Wednesday to eventually northwesterly Wednesday night-early Thursday, we can anticipate lake effect snow showers for much of the region with perhaps more significant accumulations occurring north of the New York Thruway. The air mass appears quite supportive of lake snows with the dendritic growth zone down in the heart of the mixed boundary layer. This will be figured out with more certainty in coming days.

We get into a moderating return flow on the back side of the departing high Friday, with dry weather and highs forecast back into the upper 20s-mid 30s.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours as a ridge of high pressure slides over the terminals.

A small amount of low level wind shear is expected on Sunday due to a 2000 foot 30-40 knot jet passing overhead. The best chance for LLWS will be over our northern terminals.

Outlook .

Sunday night . Mainly VFR, with MVFR CIGS possible late.

Monday and Tuesday . Restrictions likely with a broad area of rain across the region.

Wednesday . Restrictions possible in lake effect snow showers.

Thursday . A few lingering snow showers north near KSYR and KRME; otherwise VFR expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MJM NEAR TERM . MJM SHORT TERM . DGM LONG TERM . DGM/MDP AVIATION . DJP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 30 mi46 min W 16 G 19 1030.9 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 82 mi34 min SW 6 G 6 25°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 83 mi52 min 19°F 1031.2 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY7 mi40 minSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy23°F15°F72%1031.7 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi40 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy18°F10°F71%1031.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7N5CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW8W7W8W6W9W9W10W10W13W10W12NW8W10W7SW6SW4
1 day agoW7W9W10W9W8SW7SW8SW8SW8S6S6SE5E5E7NE6NE5E4NE3N5NW9NW10NW9W7NW9
2 days agoSW10SW12W11W10SW9W11W14W13W15W9W9W13W12W11W11W11W8W14
G21
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W12W8W10W13W11
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.