Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantia, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 211146 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 646 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. Aside from lingering, light lake effect flurries today and tonight, high pressure over the Mid Atlantic states will provide our region with mainly quiet weather, and slowly warming conditions this week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 645 AM Update . Minor adjustments made to chase fickle early morning temperatures, dewpoints and sky cover . otherwise, forecast on track to see temperatures rise into the low and mid 20s for highs this afternoon with mainly sunny skies over NEPA and variable cloudiness across CNY. Wind backing to west will push solid cloud cover now over western NY back through portions of the central Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region with some erosion of moisture on the leading edge.

Previous discussion . Lake effect conditions continue to plague central NY early this morning with varying degrees of cloud cover and patchy snow flurry activity. This has resulted in a potpourri of temperatures ranging from near 20 in the western Finger Lakes to near zero on the Tug Hill and Catskills, with everything in between and changing by the hour. High resolution models have performed poorly at capturing the moisture in RH, reflectivity and QPF fields, so it's seat of the pants, old school forecasting time. Current laminar flow from the NW becomes increasingly sheared today while backing to the west below 850 mb. This should disrupt the upslope lake moisture/clouds by this afternoon and knock down the flurries with partly sunny conditions returning to CNY and mostly sunny for NEPA. Frosty morning temperatures should rebound into the 20s today.

Then a weak disturbance moving through the top of the upper level ridge brings an increase in mid level moisture by tonight. Sounding profiles suggest a distinct dry layer below 700 mb but saturation below 900 mb. I get the sense that we will be in a seeder-feeder situation with areas of flurries rekindling on the 260-280 trajectory from this evening well into the night. Shallow moisture, warmer than the dendritic layer, also introduces the possibility for freezing drizzle. The main focus for this mention of light precipitation will be along the Onondaga-Madison border through Northern Oneida.

After that . models suggest a pronounced backing of the low-mid level flow toward the west and southwest on Wednesday with a stronger indicaton of subsidence developing over the forecast area. Limited moisture will signal sunshine, while the return to southwest flow indicates substantial warming. After another start in the low to mid teens . we're looking for temperatures on Wednesday to climb well into the 30s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure remains in control with dry weather across the area. As the surface high starts to slide more eastward towards the coast, a shift to warm, southwesterly flow across the NE US will bring in much warmer weather with above average temperatures peaking in the mid 30s to low 40s. Overnight lows stay cold, especially into Thursday morning with mainly clear skies, a dry airmass, and lingering snowpack. Temperatures Wednesday night bottom out in the teens, then lows Thursday night come in slightly warmer in the low 20s. High clouds start to build in for Thursday and Friday ahead of the next storm system, but any snow is still looking to hold off until the weekend.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Deterministic models and ensembles continue to develop a coastal low around the Delmarva, tracking up the east coast into the weekend. Latest guidance tracks this slightly more to the south of us than in previous runs, keeping temperatures a couple degrees colder as morning lows in the 20s to low 30s Saturday peak in the 30s. With temperatures aloft falling back below freezing, this should allow for precipitation to come in mainly as snow, mixing in with rain mainly across the river valleys and lake plain during the afternoon. Snow lingers into Sunday as the surface low tracks into New England and finally towards the Canadian maritimes. Drier air starts to work back in Sunday night into Monday with a ridge building across the southern US, but with west/Northwest flow and another shortwave moving through, rain/snow showers with some lake enhancement will remain in the forecast across central NY through the early part of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR with variable ceilings today with areas of MVFR, particularly from KELM-KITH-KSYR-KRME as low cloud shield over WNY lifts back to the northeast later this morning and afternoon Tonight. VFR NO CIG expected at most locations, with MVFR resulting from lake effect snow plumes settling into mainly the KRME terminal after about 03Z.

Winds becoming westerly 5-10 knots this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Friday . VFR.

Saturday . Chance IFR. Snow possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . JAB NEAR TERM . JAB SHORT TERM . HLC LONG TERM . HLC AVIATION . JAB

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	30 mi	54 min	SSE 7 G 8.9	13°F			1032.4 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	82 mi	42 min	SW 6 G 8	20°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	83 mi	60 min		18°F			1032.5 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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N10 G13

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NW24 G29

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NW20 G25

N13 G18

N12 G16

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NW16 G21

N16 G21

N14 G21

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NE12 G15

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SE10 G15

SE10 G21

SE13 G19

SE12 G17

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SE14 G26

SE15 G22

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SE9 G16

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S12 G18

S14 G23

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W16 G25

W27 G41

W24 G34

W27 G36

W23 G32

NW27 G57

W12 G34

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY	7 mi	48 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	8°F	3°F	83%	1033.3 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY	20 mi	48 min	N 0	9.00 mi	Fair	5°F	0°F	79%	1033.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)

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S9 G18

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W12 G23

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W18 G24

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (9,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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