Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Constantia, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 7:40PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 8:19 AM EDT (12:19 UTC) Moonrise 7:34PMMoonset 6:12AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202004081515;;760705 Fzus51 Kbuf 081035 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 635 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-081515- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 635 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy this morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 30 knots in the afternoon. Rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less building to 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Thursday night..West winds to 30 knots. Rain showers likely in the evening, then snow and rain showers likely overnight. Waves 7 to 11 feet building to 9 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Friday..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots. Snow and rain showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow and rain showers Friday night. Waves 9 to 13 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of rain during the day, then occasional rain Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 42 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantia, NY
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location: 43.21, -76.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 081040 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 640 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. A low pressure system will move southeast of the region today. However, Another low pressure system and cold front will be on it's heels with some showers tonight and Thursday. High pressure builds into the region this weekend followed by a strong low pressure system tracking into the Great Lakes Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/.

With the sunrise update, added in a mention of some patchy fog for the next hour or two. Low clouds continue to have the impression that they will touch to burn off today.

The low pressure system which brought us showers overnight will continue moving southeast of the region. However, northwest flow will start up behind the system this morning allowing low clouds and moisture to linger throughout much of the day today. Highs will get into the 50's across most of the region with some 60's in NE PA.

Tonight should provide a brief break in between low pressure system with perhaps a few clear patches. Lows should fall into the 40's but temperatures then should rise toward sunrise with the flow becoming more southwesterly. Enough lift and moisture looks present along the front to develop an area of rain which moves through late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Some slight instability advection into the region can't be ruled out so this forecast maintains a slight chance of thunder from the Southern Tier into NE PA.

Highs Thursday look to occur late in the morning ahead of the cold front rising into the mid and upper 40's before falling later in the day. While a few southwesterly wind gusts will be possible Thursday morning northwesterly wind gusts should pick up Thursday afternoon. BUFKIT analysis shows the potential for wind gusts approaching 40 mph in the afternoon. Rainfall should be around 1/2 inch or less through Thursday. Temperatures may even fall enough for a little wet snow to mix in late in the day.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. 330 AM update .

This period marked by a cool damp northwest flow under an upper level trough. Showers will be common into Saturday especially in CNY. The deep trough will start out over eastern NY Thursday night then move northeast to New Brunswick Canada Friday before slowing. Wrap around moisture combined with some lake effect enhancement into early Saturday before the deep moisture lifts out. 850mb temperatures cold enough for a deep dendrite zone from 5 to 10k feet but not cold enough for better lake effect. Snow will be dominant across the higher terrain with rain or a mix in the valleys during the day. At night showers will become completely snow. Ground temperatures above freezing will keep snow amounts low. For Thursday night to Saturday, snow totals maybe an inch or two across the higher terrain of southern Onondaga, Madison, Cortland, and northwest Chenango Counties. The other area of higher snow amounts of course in the Tug. 2 to 4 inches possible mostly Thursday night into Friday with the low level flow closer to northwest. After that the flow shifts more to the north. As typical with northwest flow NEPA will get mostly isolated showers with little to no accumulation.

As the trough lifts out Saturday drier air moves in, winds drop to 10 to 15 mph, and surface high pressure builds in late.

Temperatures will be below average with lows around 30 both nights. Friday highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s will warm into the low and mid 40s Saturday. Adding to the cold Friday will be strong winds continuing from Thursday. Sustained speeds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 to 40 mph.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. 330 AM update .

Unsettled weather this period again but temperatures closely to mid April averages. Saturday night will be partly cloudy with lows around 30 finally under a high pressure ridge. The ridge moves slowly east pumping warmer air into the area so high temperatures will be in the 50s Sunday and Monday. A large storm in the southern Plains will move northeast through our area Monday. Rain will be over NY/PA Sunday night into Monday. Models still not agreeing on the amounts or exact timing. Tuesday on even more uncertain. Some showers possible as an upper level trough sets up in the upper Midwest. Minor fronts will move east across the Great Lakes. A little cooler Tuesday with highs around 50 in CNY to mid 50s Scranton to Monticello south.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Restrictions due to low clouds and fog will continue through most of the morning but ceilings should slowly improve throughout the day. Some timing uncertainties are present with quite a bit of back and forth at most TAF sites this morning so far. IFR and LIFR restrictions should lift by 15Z and then to VFR by late afternoon around 20Z or so. KAVP and KELM look to have timing a few hours faster than this with KITH and KBGM keeping restrictions the longest.

VFR through most of the night but ceilings will start to lower with the arrival of some showers toward 12Z Thursday.

Outlook .

Thursday . Restrictions likely in showers associated with a slow moving low pressure system. Northwest wind gusts up to 35 knots Thursday afternoon.

Thursday night through Friday night: Restrictions likely with rain and snow showers, windy with top gusts Friday afternoon around 35 knots from the northwest.

Saturday . Lingering ceiling restrictions in the morning with lighter winds.

Sunday . Additional restrictions likely Sunday night with rain.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MWG NEAR TERM . MWG SHORT TERM . TAC LONG TERM . TAC AVIATION . MWG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 30 mi49 min NE 2.9 G 7 42°F 1002.5 hPa40°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 82 mi79 min NNW 1 G 2.9 42°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 83 mi55 min 42°F 1002.8 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY7 mi25 minN 010.00 miOvercast45°F41°F86%1002.2 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi25 minN 010.00 miOvercast45°F39°F83%1002.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W7W6W6W9CalmNW10W8NW8N7N4NE3CalmN7NE5E8E7E5NE6NE6NE3NE5N3Calm
1 day agoNW8NW4NW7NW6W8W8W14NW14
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2 days agoW3W4W5W4W6W9
G17
W12W9W10NW11NW10NW7NW5W6W5W3W5W5W4W6W5W5W6W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.