Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantia, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 080017 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 717 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. Mostly clear, calm and cold overnight as high pressure builds over the region. Dry and seasonable weather is expected Sunday, followed by periods of rain and warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Then, turning much colder mid to late week with lake effect snow showers around.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/.

710 PM Update . Near term forecast is on track. Lingering lake clouds have shifted north from Cortland to Auburn and Syracuse. Otherwise, skies are clear and winds have decoupled . now variable less than 5 mph. Temperatures are dropping quickly this evening as expected . with many areas already into the teens (where skies are clear). The cold spot is Woodgate, in northern Oneida county, which has already dropped to 6 degrees as of 7 PM. Adjusted overnight lows closer to the colder NBM guidance. Clouds lifting north into Oneida county should halt temperatures from falling much further by late evening (hopefully keeping readings above zero).

Previous Discussion Below

Expansive surface high pressure will provide a mostly clear and cold night. Strong radiational cooling is expected, especially during the first half of the night. Lows will likely drop to the single digits across portions of Oneida county and the western Catskills with teens expected elsewhere. Temperatures may begin to rise a bit after midnight as high pressure begins to move east of the area along with increasing higher clouds and south winds.

Temperatures moderate a bit on Sunday as the high pressure system moves east of the area, and a warm front pushes through bringing a southerly flow. Highs are expected to be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. With a tightening pressure gradient, it will become breezy during the late morning and afternoon hours. The strongest winds are expected across ridges and north/south valleys of the Finger Lakes and Susquehanna region. In these areas expect south winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Elsewhere, look for south winds of 8-15 mph with gusts near 25mph.

Otherwise, expecting a partly sunny day with increasing clouds late in the day in the western zones ahead of the next system.

It should remain dry with increasing clouds prior to midnight Sunday night. Temperatures fall off a few degrees in the evening, especially east . bottoming out between 30-35. Temperatures then slowly rise a few degrees after midnight. There will be a low chance for rain showers after midnight (possibly mixed with isolated pockets of light freezing rain or sleet east and north) but precipitation amounts will be very light, under 0.05" by daybreak Monday. Temperatures should be above freezing, in the mid to upper 30s just about everywhere by daybreak. Decided to not yet mention any wintry mix in the HWO, as confidence is very low in any measurable ice.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Lake runner pushes warm air and moisture into the area Monday. System is fast moving and with the zonal flow does not tap deeply into the subtropical moisture lurking over the SE and gulf so while moderate rain and isolated heavy rain is possible, hydrological concerns are limited for now. Track does put us in the preferred entrance region of the jet so steady moderate rain is expected Monday into Monday night before a dry slot works in ahead of the cold front. That front passes through early Tuesday followed by colder air that slowly turns the rain to snow. Some brief anafront precipitation in the colder air could give us a quick coating of snow, but by Tuesday night just snow showers are expected, perhaps being lake enhanced before morning, with additional light accumulations.

Temperature trend through the period will be non-diurnal as they rise all day Monday and Monday night, then begin to fall on Tuesday with the cold advection.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. 255 PM UPDATE .

Long term is generally a tranquil period with a slow warm up. Some lake effect snow showers are possible early on, then The upper trough and surface high slides east allowing for a southwest flow to develop bringing increasingly milder air into the area.

Once again made some minor adjustments to the period in the weather and pop grids otherwise have stayed the course.

Previous discussion continues below.

430 AM Update . We return to an Arctic regime later this week.

Strong cold air advection will begin Tuesday night which continues right through Wednesday night. 850mb temperatures start Wednesday morning around minus-10 Celsius but further plummet to between minus-15 and minus-20 Celsius by Wednesday evening, which persists into Thursday. This will indeed be a cold air mass with highs of lower 20s-lower 30s Wednesday and then only upper teens-upper 20s Thursday as the Arctic high passes overhead. Overnight lows for Wednesday night-Thursday night, will be mainly teens but perhaps some single digits.

With low level flow veering westerly Wednesday to eventually northwesterly Wednesday night-early Thursday, we can anticipate lake effect snow showers for much of the region with perhaps more significant accumulations occurring north of the New York Thruway. The air mass appears quite supportive of lake snows with the dendritic growth zone down in the heart of the mixed boundary layer. This will be figured out with more certainty in coming days.

We get into a moderating return flow on the back side of the departing high Friday, with dry weather and highs forecast back into the upper 20s-mid 30s.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours as a ridge of high pressure slides over the terminals.

A small amount of low level wind shear is expected on Sunday due to a 2000 foot 30-40 knot jet passing overhead. The best chance for LLWS will be over our northern terminals.

Outlook .

Sunday night . Mainly VFR, with MVFR CIGS possible late.

Monday and Tuesday . Restrictions likely with a broad area of rain across the region.

Wednesday . Restrictions possible in lake effect snow showers.

Thursday . A few lingering snow showers north near KSYR and KRME; otherwise VFR expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MJM NEAR TERM . MJM SHORT TERM . DGM LONG TERM . DGM/MDP AVIATION . DJP

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	30 mi	46 min	W 16 G 19				1030.9 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	82 mi	34 min	SW 6 G 6	25°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	83 mi	52 min		19°F			1031.2 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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NW11 G14

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NW6 G9

SE2 G6

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NW24 G31

NW26 G32

W22 G28

NW26 G32

NW17 G25

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NW14 G19

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W14 G20

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1 day ago

W20

W22 G27

NW20 G25

NW17 G21

NW15 G21

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N12 G16

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N11 G19

NW13 G16

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SW7 G11

W20 G36

W20 G26

W16 G23

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W24 G29

W27

W24 G30

W28 G36

W27 G36

W30 G37

NW26

NW21 G31

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W29 G35

NW32

W26 G34

NW24 G32

NW26 G33

W30

NW29 G39

NW23 G30

W21

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY	7 mi	40 min	SW 4	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	23°F	15°F	72%	1031.7 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY	20 mi	40 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	18°F	10°F	71%	1031.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)

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NW7

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W14 G21

W13 G21

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W11 G21

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (19,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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