Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brockport, NY
December 9, 2023 8:00 PM EST (01:00 UTC)
Sunrise 7:28AM Sunset 4:36PM Moonrise 3:53AM Moonset 2:19PM
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 343 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain from late evening on. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Rain. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. Snow with rain showers likely in the morning, then rain and snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Monday night..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 7 to 11 feet subsiding to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain from late evening on. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Rain. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. Snow with rain showers likely in the morning, then rain and snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Monday night..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 7 to 11 feet subsiding to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ005
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBUF 100023 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 723 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will track from the Great Lakes to James Bay tonight with a slow-moving cold front crossing the area later tonight into Sunday morning. This will bring a period of soaking rain overnight into Sunday. Colder air will then wrap in behind the front with rain changing to an accumulating wet snow for Sunday night and Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure over Lake Superior region tracks to James Bay tonight.
As this occurs, additional pair of mid level troughs ease eastward across the upper Great Lakes and southern Plains with strong 140 knot upper jet elongated from Gulf Coast to Quebec. Wavy surface cold front shifts into western NY late tonight then gradually treks across rest of the forecast area from west to east through the first half of Sunday. A surge of moderate rain will lift across western NY late this evening into the early overnight ahead of the front and on the nose of a strong low level jet. This doesn't last too long while quickly shifting to east of Lake Ontario and into Quebec by daybreak on Sunday. Given the limited duration of the rain tonight, most locations will see QPF amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch by daybreak Sunday with highest totals over far western NY. Just enough elevated instability to keep thunder mention as the front moves in. Another very warm night with readings remaining above 50 all night Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes while temps just start to drop into the 40s late over far western NY with the arrival of the front.
Second wave of moderate rain arrives from the southwest late on Sunday morning especially across the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario as the approaching southern stream wave and right entrance jet divergence combine forces. QPF in the guidance has come down though compared to recent days, with rainfall amounts likely hard presses to top 0.50 inch for any of our forecast area. Temps fall into the mid 30s late afternoon over the interior of far western NY while tumbling into the upper 30s or lower 40s across the rest of the forecast area. Soundings indicate quick flip from rain to snow with dynamic cooling on west side of the system as far east as the Genesee Valley (Allegany County) even as temps only drop into the mid 30s at coolest by nightfall. Even so, any snow amounts will remain minimal by dark.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A brief transition back to winter weather will occur Sunday night through Monday as cold air filters across western and north central NY. The biggest adjustment in this forecast has been a downward trend in widespread snowfall amounts. The greatest snowfall amounts still remain on the Tug Hill where the potential remains for greater than 7" and therefore a Winter Storm Watch was issued for Jefferson, Lewis, and Oswego counties
More details
A shortwave trough will be over the central Great Lakes with a 150kt upper level jet on the lee side of the 250mb trough Sunday night. A cold front will be well east of the region with anafrontal precipitation across the Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake Ontario region Sunday evening. Cold air advection will be ongoing across the entire region and rain will transition to snow overnight, first across the higher terrain. The western NY region will be under the left entrance region of the 250mb jet and with moisture diminishing, widespread rain and snow will transition to lake enhanced showers east of Lake Erie. Boundary layer temperatures will be marginal especially across lower elevations. Any snow accumulation will be confined to the higher terrain, mainly above 1000ft including the Tug Hill and hilltops across the western Southern Tier.
The shortwave trough will slow down and take on a negative tilt across western NY Monday. A wave of low pressure will ride the cold front along the east coast keeping the deformation zone and greatest moisture east of the forecast area. Synoptic moisture will pull away from southwest to northeast transitioning widespread snow to lake effect snow Monday. With marginal surface temperatures, minimal snowfall accumulations are expected at lower elevations including the Buffalo/Niagara Falls and Rochester centers. Cold air advection will continue with 850mb temperatures falling to -10C. Westerly winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, with the highest gusts south-southeast of Lake Ontario.
East of Lake Ontario...Widespread snow with lake enhancement will continue east of Lake Ontario the first half of Monday. As moisture pulls east, snow will transition to lake effect snow showers Monday afternoon. A west-northwest flow will likely tap into an upstream connection which could increase organization southeast of Lake Ontario Monday afternoon. Snowfall amounts will range based on elevation with possible snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the Saint Lawrence River to 3 to 6 inches further inland to 5 to 10 inches on the Tug Hill. Highs will reach the mid 30s across the lower elevations to the upper 20s to low 30s on the Tug Hill. As stated above, A Winter Storm Watch is in effect.
East of Lake Erie...Snow will transition to lake effect snow east of Lake Erie with equilibrium levels falling from 10k to 5k Monday. A west-northwest wind will likely tap into an upstream connection with bands of lake effect snow southeast of Lake Erie. Snowfall amounts will range from 3 to 6 inches on the Chautauqua Ridge to hill tops across northern Chautauqua and southern Erie counties. Again, accumulating snow will stay south of the City of Buffalo.
Surface high pressure will build into the region from the southwest Monday night and lake bands will lift north. A few inches of snow are possible but it will be after the Monday evening commute. Low temperatures will fall to the low to mid 20s Monday night. The southwest flow will become enhanced Tuesday with the potential for strong, gusty winds especially northeast of the Lakes. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible. High temperatures will rise into the upper 30s to low 40s.
Increasing moisture and warm air advection ahead of a cold front Tuesday night may support lake band development northeast of the Lakes overnight. This may cause a few inches of snow overnight ahead of the Wednesday morning commute. Low temperatures will fall to the mid to upper 20s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Mid-level trough axis will pull east into New England Wednesday. A shortwave trough will then rotate across southeastern Canada Wednesday night, acting to pull the long wave trough to the east into New England Thursday. Overall down at the surface this will support a weak cold front to drop south across New York State early Wednesday ushering in colder air into the region. With the cold air in place in addition to the moisture from the front some lake effect snow showers will be possible east/southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario Wednesday into Thursday with the better chance for lake showers being east of Lake Ontario due to the close proximity of the front.
Surface high pressure will then push into the area Thursday night through Friday. Associated subsidence with the high will act to dwindle out the lake effect potential Thursday night before becoming dry Friday.
The next mid-level trough Will push east across the Great Lakes Region late next week into next weekend, supporting a surface cold front to push across the region. This will act to bring back some chances for some snow showers Saturday.
Temperatures throughout the later half of next week and into the weekend are expected to be near to a few degrees above normal.
Temperatures will generally range in the upper 30s to low 40s most of the days. The coldest of the days will be Wednesday due to the cold frontal passage ushering colder air, and supporting highs in the low to mid 50s. On the flip side, the warmest day of the period will occur Friday as the surface high will support some warm air advection and allow highs to range in the 40s.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR from the Genesee Valley east this evening, with mainly low VFR CIGS west of the Genesee valley and MVFR CIGS Southern Tier (KJHW).
Otherwise, main area of rain will move in across western NY late this evening/early overnight with CIGS lowering to mainly MVFR CIGS lower terrain/IFR CIGS higher terrain with onset of steadier precipitation. This area of rain will move into the eastern Lake Ontario region later tonight with MVFR lower terrain/IFR higher terrain developing there with onset of steady rain. The rain will begin to taper off by around daybreak Sunday over far western NY.
On Sunday, rain will diminish over far western NY, but will remain in place from the Genesee Valley eastward across the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario. Moderate rain could impact the Finger Lakes and North Country in the afternoon. Rain will start to mix with wet to snow over the higher terrain of western NY late Sunday afternoon with rain eventually changing to snow for all areas Sunday night. Mainly IFR/MVFR CIGS on Sunday, with most persistent IFR CIGS from the Finger Lakes to east of Lake Ontario along an advancing cold front and across the higher terrain.
Outlook...
Monday...MVFR. Breezy with a chance of snow showers.
Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.
MARINE
Elevated south/south-southeasterly flow will continue ahead of cold front that reaches Lake Erie late tonight with a Small Craft Advisory is in effect over far eastern Lake Ontario into Sunday morning. Winds shift to the west and freshen further on Sunday from west to east. Increasing westerly winds on Lake Erie on Sunday morning prompted the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for Lake Erie waters on Sunday with the winds and higher waves in wake of the cold front. Although that SCA only goes until early Sunday evening, additional Small Craft Advisories (possibly long-duration) will eventually be needed later Sunday night through the middle of next week as winds and waves will become, and likely remain elevated for an extended period of time.
CLIMATE
We still appear on track to break the December 9th warmest minimum temperature records at all three climate sites. For the climate day running from midnight to midnight, all three climate sites are not expected to fall below the record values.
Records for December 9th...
Buffalo.....Record warmest low 50 Rochester...Record warmest low 50 Watertown...Record warmest low 44
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LOZ045.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 723 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will track from the Great Lakes to James Bay tonight with a slow-moving cold front crossing the area later tonight into Sunday morning. This will bring a period of soaking rain overnight into Sunday. Colder air will then wrap in behind the front with rain changing to an accumulating wet snow for Sunday night and Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure over Lake Superior region tracks to James Bay tonight.
As this occurs, additional pair of mid level troughs ease eastward across the upper Great Lakes and southern Plains with strong 140 knot upper jet elongated from Gulf Coast to Quebec. Wavy surface cold front shifts into western NY late tonight then gradually treks across rest of the forecast area from west to east through the first half of Sunday. A surge of moderate rain will lift across western NY late this evening into the early overnight ahead of the front and on the nose of a strong low level jet. This doesn't last too long while quickly shifting to east of Lake Ontario and into Quebec by daybreak on Sunday. Given the limited duration of the rain tonight, most locations will see QPF amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch by daybreak Sunday with highest totals over far western NY. Just enough elevated instability to keep thunder mention as the front moves in. Another very warm night with readings remaining above 50 all night Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes while temps just start to drop into the 40s late over far western NY with the arrival of the front.
Second wave of moderate rain arrives from the southwest late on Sunday morning especially across the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario as the approaching southern stream wave and right entrance jet divergence combine forces. QPF in the guidance has come down though compared to recent days, with rainfall amounts likely hard presses to top 0.50 inch for any of our forecast area. Temps fall into the mid 30s late afternoon over the interior of far western NY while tumbling into the upper 30s or lower 40s across the rest of the forecast area. Soundings indicate quick flip from rain to snow with dynamic cooling on west side of the system as far east as the Genesee Valley (Allegany County) even as temps only drop into the mid 30s at coolest by nightfall. Even so, any snow amounts will remain minimal by dark.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A brief transition back to winter weather will occur Sunday night through Monday as cold air filters across western and north central NY. The biggest adjustment in this forecast has been a downward trend in widespread snowfall amounts. The greatest snowfall amounts still remain on the Tug Hill where the potential remains for greater than 7" and therefore a Winter Storm Watch was issued for Jefferson, Lewis, and Oswego counties
More details
A shortwave trough will be over the central Great Lakes with a 150kt upper level jet on the lee side of the 250mb trough Sunday night. A cold front will be well east of the region with anafrontal precipitation across the Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake Ontario region Sunday evening. Cold air advection will be ongoing across the entire region and rain will transition to snow overnight, first across the higher terrain. The western NY region will be under the left entrance region of the 250mb jet and with moisture diminishing, widespread rain and snow will transition to lake enhanced showers east of Lake Erie. Boundary layer temperatures will be marginal especially across lower elevations. Any snow accumulation will be confined to the higher terrain, mainly above 1000ft including the Tug Hill and hilltops across the western Southern Tier.
The shortwave trough will slow down and take on a negative tilt across western NY Monday. A wave of low pressure will ride the cold front along the east coast keeping the deformation zone and greatest moisture east of the forecast area. Synoptic moisture will pull away from southwest to northeast transitioning widespread snow to lake effect snow Monday. With marginal surface temperatures, minimal snowfall accumulations are expected at lower elevations including the Buffalo/Niagara Falls and Rochester centers. Cold air advection will continue with 850mb temperatures falling to -10C. Westerly winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, with the highest gusts south-southeast of Lake Ontario.
East of Lake Ontario...Widespread snow with lake enhancement will continue east of Lake Ontario the first half of Monday. As moisture pulls east, snow will transition to lake effect snow showers Monday afternoon. A west-northwest flow will likely tap into an upstream connection which could increase organization southeast of Lake Ontario Monday afternoon. Snowfall amounts will range based on elevation with possible snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the Saint Lawrence River to 3 to 6 inches further inland to 5 to 10 inches on the Tug Hill. Highs will reach the mid 30s across the lower elevations to the upper 20s to low 30s on the Tug Hill. As stated above, A Winter Storm Watch is in effect.
East of Lake Erie...Snow will transition to lake effect snow east of Lake Erie with equilibrium levels falling from 10k to 5k Monday. A west-northwest wind will likely tap into an upstream connection with bands of lake effect snow southeast of Lake Erie. Snowfall amounts will range from 3 to 6 inches on the Chautauqua Ridge to hill tops across northern Chautauqua and southern Erie counties. Again, accumulating snow will stay south of the City of Buffalo.
Surface high pressure will build into the region from the southwest Monday night and lake bands will lift north. A few inches of snow are possible but it will be after the Monday evening commute. Low temperatures will fall to the low to mid 20s Monday night. The southwest flow will become enhanced Tuesday with the potential for strong, gusty winds especially northeast of the Lakes. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible. High temperatures will rise into the upper 30s to low 40s.
Increasing moisture and warm air advection ahead of a cold front Tuesday night may support lake band development northeast of the Lakes overnight. This may cause a few inches of snow overnight ahead of the Wednesday morning commute. Low temperatures will fall to the mid to upper 20s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Mid-level trough axis will pull east into New England Wednesday. A shortwave trough will then rotate across southeastern Canada Wednesday night, acting to pull the long wave trough to the east into New England Thursday. Overall down at the surface this will support a weak cold front to drop south across New York State early Wednesday ushering in colder air into the region. With the cold air in place in addition to the moisture from the front some lake effect snow showers will be possible east/southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario Wednesday into Thursday with the better chance for lake showers being east of Lake Ontario due to the close proximity of the front.
Surface high pressure will then push into the area Thursday night through Friday. Associated subsidence with the high will act to dwindle out the lake effect potential Thursday night before becoming dry Friday.
The next mid-level trough Will push east across the Great Lakes Region late next week into next weekend, supporting a surface cold front to push across the region. This will act to bring back some chances for some snow showers Saturday.
Temperatures throughout the later half of next week and into the weekend are expected to be near to a few degrees above normal.
Temperatures will generally range in the upper 30s to low 40s most of the days. The coldest of the days will be Wednesday due to the cold frontal passage ushering colder air, and supporting highs in the low to mid 50s. On the flip side, the warmest day of the period will occur Friday as the surface high will support some warm air advection and allow highs to range in the 40s.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR from the Genesee Valley east this evening, with mainly low VFR CIGS west of the Genesee valley and MVFR CIGS Southern Tier (KJHW).
Otherwise, main area of rain will move in across western NY late this evening/early overnight with CIGS lowering to mainly MVFR CIGS lower terrain/IFR CIGS higher terrain with onset of steadier precipitation. This area of rain will move into the eastern Lake Ontario region later tonight with MVFR lower terrain/IFR higher terrain developing there with onset of steady rain. The rain will begin to taper off by around daybreak Sunday over far western NY.
On Sunday, rain will diminish over far western NY, but will remain in place from the Genesee Valley eastward across the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario. Moderate rain could impact the Finger Lakes and North Country in the afternoon. Rain will start to mix with wet to snow over the higher terrain of western NY late Sunday afternoon with rain eventually changing to snow for all areas Sunday night. Mainly IFR/MVFR CIGS on Sunday, with most persistent IFR CIGS from the Finger Lakes to east of Lake Ontario along an advancing cold front and across the higher terrain.
Outlook...
Monday...MVFR. Breezy with a chance of snow showers.
Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.
MARINE
Elevated south/south-southeasterly flow will continue ahead of cold front that reaches Lake Erie late tonight with a Small Craft Advisory is in effect over far eastern Lake Ontario into Sunday morning. Winds shift to the west and freshen further on Sunday from west to east. Increasing westerly winds on Lake Erie on Sunday morning prompted the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for Lake Erie waters on Sunday with the winds and higher waves in wake of the cold front. Although that SCA only goes until early Sunday evening, additional Small Craft Advisories (possibly long-duration) will eventually be needed later Sunday night through the middle of next week as winds and waves will become, and likely remain elevated for an extended period of time.
CLIMATE
We still appear on track to break the December 9th warmest minimum temperature records at all three climate sites. For the climate day running from midnight to midnight, all three climate sites are not expected to fall below the record values.
Records for December 9th...
Buffalo.....Record warmest low 50 Rochester...Record warmest low 50 Watertown...Record warmest low 44
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LOZ045.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 17 mi | 60 min | 59°F | |||||
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 18 mi | 60 min | S 12G | 60°F | 29.92 | |||
| 45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY | 40 mi | 40 min | SE 12G | 50°F | 45°F | 2 ft | 29.89 | 44°F |
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 42 mi | 60 min | S 7G | 59°F | 29.86 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KROC GREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY | 16 sm | 66 min | S 09 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 59°F | 43°F | 55% | 29.90 | |
| KGVQ GENESEE COUNTY,NY | 17 sm | 64 min | S 05 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 55°F | 45°F | 67% | 29.88 |
Wind History from ROC
(wind in knots)
Buffalo, NY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE