Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brockport, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1)Record warmth possible on Thursday.

2)A brief shot of light rain Thursday night. Dry weather then resumes and lasts through the weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warmth possible on Thursday.

An expansive surface ridge over the area will begin to drift off to our east today. While this occurs,return southerly flow will develop on the western flank over the region which will aid in boosting temperatures back 'well' above normal, especially on Thursday. With the expected warmth, some records may fall or be tied, especially at Rochester (KROC) and in the Genesee Valley due to downslope flow and dry soils (see Climate section below). Additionally, winds will strengthening and then become quite breezy (gusts to 35 mph) on Thursday, strongest winds will likely be northeast of lake Erie. Given the cooler lake waters and expected SW flow, Max T's may just fall short of record territory at KBUF/KIAG. Despite that, more gorgeous fall conditions will continue areawide today and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A brief shot of light rain Thursday night. Dry weather then resumes and lasts through the weekend.

A weak cold front nears the region Thursday which will bring a chance for some showers Thursday evening and night. In terms of precipitation, amounts look very meager with only a few hundredths of an inch at best possible across Western and Central NY. Given the streak of dry weather, some fire weather concerns will remain due to the dryness of fuels and leaf litter. Luckily, winds and RH levels won't reach close to critical levels through the weekend. See Fire weather section below for more details. High pressure return over the Great Lakes Friday and then sticks around through the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Surface high pressure over the area will slowly slip off to our east today but will maintain VFR conditions across all terminals.

Tonight...VFR to continue but southerly flow will begin to pick up as we head into Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday and Thursday night...mainly VFR. A chance of showers Thursday even/night. Gusty winds expected Thursday afternoon, especially northeast of lake Erie with gust up to 30 knots possible.

Friday through Sunday....Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Surface high pressure over the region will slowly slip off to our east today but will continue to support generally light winds and minimal wave action.

Thereafter, southwest winds will strengthen on the western flank of the departed ridge Thursday ahead of the approaching cold front.
Small Craft conditions are likely to develop across eastern portions of Lake Erie, and western portions of Lake America. Small Craft conditions will then spread eastward across Lake America Friday as winds shift to the west. Waves will build to 2-4 ft across Lake Erie over this period, and 3-5 ft across Lake America. Improving marine conditions this weekend with weaker winds.

FIRE WEATHER
No measurable rain has fallen for nearly two weeks (10 days) in most of our region. The extended period of dry weather and sunshine has cured fine fuels and leaf litter, bringing some increase in wildfire risk. Luckily, the forecast does not show a significant overlap of strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity values through this weekend.

A weak cold front and weather disturbance should generate light and periodic rain showers Thursday eve-night, but resulting rainfall amounts should be less than 0.10". Dry weather will then follow Friday and last through the weekend. As a result, fine fuels and leaf litter should remain very dry.

CLIMATE
Here are the record high temperatures for Thursday, October 30th.

Buffalo, NY 74 (1971)

Rochester, NY 76 (1896)

Watertown, NY 73 (1955)

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.