Saturday, December14, 2019
Privacy Policy
L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brockport, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 4:37PM Saturday December 14, 2019 8:34 AM EST (13:34 UTC) Moonrise 7:10PMMoonset 9:50AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 642 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Sunday evening...
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and increasing to 35 knot gales overnight. Snow and rain showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 12 to 16 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Sunday..West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 30 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 11 to 16 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Sunday night..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots overnight. A chance of snow showers. Waves 10 to 13 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 7 to 11 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 41 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201912141615;;767739 FZUS51 KBUF 141142 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 642 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-141615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brockport, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.21, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBUF 141128 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 628 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. A complex area of low pressure will move northward just inland from the east coast through tonight. Rain will become more widespread this morning before changing to accumulating wet snow from west to east this afternoon and evening. The snow will taper off later tonight and Sunday, with lingering lake effect snow showers east of the lakes. There will be a brief break Sunday afternoon through Monday morning before the next area of low pressure moves through the region with snow and a wintry mix late Monday through Tuesday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. . Accumulating wet snow expected this afternoon and tonight .

Semblance of a dry slot working into central New York early this morning with only some patchy light rain or drizzle for most areas with the back edge of deformation rain across far western New York. Temperatures have cooperated overnight with the area several degrees above freezing, so we haven't had to deal with any icing impacts.

Passage of the upper trough will pull the upstream deformation rain currently across the Ohio Valley into the region this morning and into this afternoon, as a surface low starts to get its act together and move north from the Mid Atlantic region. This will result in widespread rainfall across the area, with periods of moderate to perhaps heavy rain at times.

As the upper trough swings through, it will result in rapid deepening of the approaching surface low as it tracks from eastern New York into southern Quebec later today and tonight. Cold air advection building into the region on the western side of the deepening low will start to change the rain over to snow as surface temperatures lower to near freezing. 00z GFS/NAM profiles suggesting this will take place first over the higher terrain of western New York between 18z and 21z, then gradually makes its way down to lower elevations after 21z. Snow to water ratios will be low through this evening, probably on the order of 8:1, perhaps even lower, but improvement will take place tonight as the column and surface grow colder. This will make for a very wet snow that will make for difficult travel conditions once it begins to accumulate on the roads.

In terms of snow amounts, the latest forecast brings an uptick to 5- 10 inches across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and Wyoming County with the highest amounts along the Chautauqua Ridge with upslope enhancement later in the event and where the change to snow first occurs this afternoon. We think that most of the snow will fall within about a 9 hour time period or so from 21z this afternoon through 06z tonight where snowfall rates could reach or exceed an inch per hour. We have opted to upgrade this area of western New York to a winter storm warning. Continued with 3-5 inches across the lower elevations of western New York, and 1-3 inches for points southeast of Lake Ontario with a later change to snow.

East of Lake Ontario, the higher terrain of the Tug Hill plateau looks to be in the 5-9 inch range, although depending on the exact change over time and duration, localized higher amounts are possible. Have opted to issue a winter weather advisory at this time, with 2-4 inches across lower elevations. Most of this will occur later tonight into Sunday morning once westerly upslope and lake enhancement develop.

Finally, it will turn quite windy tonight as the surface low continues to deepen across eastern Quebec. Expect gusts of 30-40 mph across much of the region, highest on the lake plains of Lake Ontario. The snow will be quite wet and sticky given the marginal temperatures, so blowing snow will not be much of an issue.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Sunday a surface low will continue to rapidly deepen over the Saint Lawrence River as it heads towards Labrador Canada. This surface low will continue to draw much colder air southward across our region, while a tight pressure gradient brings a windy day across the region.

Snow, both orographic upslope and lake effect now will be concentrated towards the higher terrain of our CWA, with around an inch additional accumulation over the hills of SW NYS, and still several inches of snow on the Tug Hill. We will carry a winter weather advisory for snow east of Lake Ontario through 18Z, to account for both falling snow and also strong wind gusts that could near 45 mph. Blowing snow will likely be held at bay due to surface temperatures right around the freezing mark. Elsewhere across WNY, early day wind gusts and snow showers will diminish through the afternoon and overnight as surface high brings a relaxing pressure gradient and drier air to end remaining scattered lake effect snow showers.

There will likely remain decent lower level moisture SE of Lake Ontario Sunday night, that with Lake Induced Equilibrium levels still around 5-6K feet and an aligned NW flow, a narrow band of lake effect snow is likely, mainly across Wayne, Cayuga and Oswego counties. Moisture is not the greatest within the snow dendritic growth zone, and the short period of the band will hold back on overall snow totals here.

As the surface high crosses our region later Sunday night, increased dry air and wind shear will end lake snows SE of Lake Ontario, while bringing the entire region a brief break from the winter weather. This surface high will slide towards New England Monday, and on its heals will be isentropic lift precipitation that will expand eastward across our region Monday. Aiding in synoptic lift will be the influence of the right entrance region of a 150kt upper level jet.

This precipitation, forming ahead of a surface low over the Ohio Valley is likely to become a wintry mix on the southern flank . with possible sleet and freezing rain across our Southern Tier. The consensus track of the low pressure is across Pennsylvania, and this will keep much of our region cold enough for snow. However a LLJ will bring the nose of warmer air aloft to just across the state line Monday afternoon and evening . with possible wintry mix.

Monday night any wintry mix will change back to plain snow showers as the surface low tracks towards southern New England. Depending upon the placement of the warm air aloft, there could be moderate accumulations of snow across our region . to the north of the Southern Tier and within a deformation zone that develops across New York State Monday night and into early Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Low pressure will strengthen as it reaches the Canadian maritimes which will establish a cold northwesterly flow across our region. 850 mb temperatures will drop to around -20C which is plenty cold enough to support lake effect snow into mid-week. The amount of moisture will depend on how developed the mid level low and there lies some model disagreement. There will be at least some lake response Tuesday night and Wednesday which may linger into Wednesday night.

A trough approaching the area Tuesday night will track east across the region through Thursday morning. A weak surface low will generate some light snow showers for most of the area Tuesday night before a cold front crosses the region. Cold air advection behind the passing cold front will cause 850H temperatures to cool to -20C by Wednesday afternoon/evening, with areas northeast of Lake Ontario approaching -25C Wednesday night.

With these cooling temperatures, lake responses off of both lakes will be possible for Wednesday into early Thursday. Increased ridging and weak warm air advection, along with less synoptic moisture on Thursday will start to cause the lake response to diminish through the morning as equilibrium heights will lower. A weak stalled frontal system across Lake Ontario extending into the North Country may cause some snow showers on the Friday, but model agreement is lacking that far out.

Temperatures will cool on Wednesday to the low to mid 20s across the area. Temps will rebound some to the upper 20s to around 30 for Thursday and Friday, except east of Lake Ontario where is will stay in the low 20s due to a potentially stalled weak frontal system.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. For the 12Z TAFS, widespread IFR and lower flight conditions are found across the region, and these conditions will continue through much of the TAF cycle.

Rain showers will continue through the next 12 hours, lowering visibilities to IFR/MVFR. LIFR ceiling heights are likely across the Southern Tier (KJHW) as well as along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline (KIAG, KROC) where a northeast wind will bring additional Lake Ontario moisture inland.

A storm system along the Carolina coastline will advance up the eastern seaboard today . resulting in our rain this morning, and then as the low passes into New England it will pull colder air back across the TAF region and change the rain to snow. Visibilities will become more widespread IFR (and LIFR in KJHW) in snow late this afternoon and evening. As the surface low deepens over Atlantic Canada late tonight a gusty westerly wind will be possible . with gusts nearing 30 to 35 knots . especially for KROC and KART.

Snow showers will become more concentrated over the higher terrain tonight . with poor flight conditions for KJHW/KART . while possibly some modest improvement for KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

Outlook .

Sunday . Local IFR in lake effect snow showers east of the lakes in the morning, otherwise improving to VFR. Monday . VFR deteriorating to IFR late afternoon and Monday night with snow and wintry mix. Tuesday . IFR in snow showers in the morning, improving to mainly VFR. Wednesday . A chance of IFR in lake effect snow east of the lakes, with VFR elsewhere.

MARINE. A deepening low moving northward along the east coast this morning will take an inland track across eastern NY later today before reaching eastern Quebec by Sunday morning, becoming a very strong low on the way. Westerly winds will rapidly increase in its wake tonight, with gale force winds on Lake Ontario. Westerly gales will continue through Sunday before starting to diminish Sunday night. A gale warning has been issued for most of Lake Ontario. Winds will not be quite as strong on Lake Erie farther removed from the strong low. Sustained winds will likely peak around 30 knots on Lake Erie.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. West gales will develop on Lake Ontario tonight through Sunday. The strong west winds will produce significant wave action on the east half of the lake, and combine with high lake levels to increase the risk of lakeshore flooding. Wind direction is expected to be nearly due west for the duration of the strong winds, which will drive the higher risk of Lakeshore flooding to areas from about Fair Haven eastward where the shoreline is more perpendicular to a west wind. Farther west along the south shore of Lake Ontario, winds will be parallel to the shoreline.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Storm Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ012-019-020-085. Lakeshore Flood Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Sunday for NYZ005>007. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ006>008. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for NYZ001>003-010-011-013-014-021. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for LOZ043>045-062>065. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EST Sunday night for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/JLA/TMA NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA/TMA SHORT TERM . Thomas LONG TERM . HSK/SW AVIATION . Thomas MARINE . Hitchcock/TMA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 17 mi100 min 37°F 1001.8 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 18 mi154 min E 8.9 G 11 38°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 42 mi34 min NE 14 G 17 39°F 1002 hPa (-3.8)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last
24hr
S12
G16
SE9
G12
S12
G15
SE8
G12
SE7
G10
SE8
G12
SE5
SE7
SE4
SE6
SE3
G6
SE3
SE4
SE3
E3
NE3
E5
G8
N4
N4
NE3
N6
G9
N7
N10
N7
G10
1 day
ago
E5
E4
G7
SE4
G7
S11
G17
S8
G12
SE7
SE5
G8
SE6
G10
SE5
SE4
SE4
S8
S11
G14
S9
G14
SE14
G21
SE9
G12
SE15
G20
SE13
G20
SE12
G18
S10
G13
S8
G12
S12
G16
S11
S12
G15
2 days
ago
SW26
G33
S27
G33
SW29
G38
SW29
G35
W19
G27
SW32
W26
W25
G31
W23
G28
W19
G25
W15
G20
W14
G19
W13
G16
W16
W17
W13
G17
W14
G17
W12
G16
W13
G16
W11
NW10
NW7
E4
E4

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY16 mi40 minNE 62.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist38°F37°F97%1000.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last 24hrS10S9SW11S12SW7S8S8SE4SE8SE5E5E4SE4E4SE6SE4CalmSE4E8E3E4E4NE4NE6
1 day agoSW6SW8S6SW8S63SE9SE5SE7SE8SE6SE6S7S9S8S11S9
G17
SW13
G20
SW13SW12
G18
SW9S8SW10
G21
S7
2 days agoSW7SW11W15
G21
SW14
G23
W17
G28
W22
G29
W17
G23
W11W13
G21
W15
G23
W18
G23
W17
G22
W11
G20
W14
G19
W10W10W10W10SW8W7SW6SW5SW6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (8,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Cookie Policy:
This webiste uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. I do not keep site logs longer than I need to to keep bad actors off the site. Basically, I delete them after looking at them. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.