Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:57 PM Moonrise 6:06 AM   Moonset 10:26 PM

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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 1105 Am Edt Thu May 9 2024
Rest of today - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots backing north late in the day. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots backing north toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Friday - Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots backing west late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots veering west 15 to 20 knots toward daybreak. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Saturday - Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.Sunday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Monday - Southwest winds around 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 091749 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 149 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler Temperatures and a Chance of Showers Today

- Possible Shower/Storm Saturday and Frost Saturday Night

- Low Confidence in Forecast Details Next Week

UPDATE
Issued at 1112 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Surface low is situated in Illinois this morning and is forecast to slide east into Indiana and West Virginia as we work through the day. The main shortwave in the mid levels is in Iowa and that will pass well off to the south as well. A band of precipitation is situated across southern portions of the forecast area towards I-94. This precipitation is being driven by lift associated with the circulation at 850mb and 700mb. Strong lift is noted in BUFKIT overviews in that layer. The axis of lift will shift south this evening ending the steadier precipitation. We are not expecting heavy precipitation. Most areas towards I-94 will end up with 0.10 to 0.30 inches by evening. Kalamazoo has picked up 0.11 already.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

- Cooler Temperatures and a Chance of Showers Today

A low pressure center in the lower levels of the atmosphere will move across the Ohio river valley region today while a positively tilted upper level trough sinks south over Michigan from northern Ontario. East to northeasterly winds will prevail with mostly cloudy skies. Today will be the start of a few days of cooler than normal temperatures.

Trends have continued to reduce the probability of precip throughout the day and also decrease the rain totals over much of the area. The rain associated with the Ohio valley low may stay mainly south of I- 96 with the heavier amounts south of I-94. The HRRR 24 hours ago was bullish on 0.5 to 1.0 inch QPF over much of the area, but now 0.5 seems unlikely for most while parts of central Michigan may stay dry. The temperature forecast today has been nudged up slightly, particularly northwest of Grand Rapids where it may reach the mid 60s. Amid the northeast winds, there may be low topped surface-based convective showers developing afternoon-evening between Reed City, Ludington, and Muskegon.

Light winds and clearing skies tonight may let temperatures dip into the 30s with a chance of frost in the highlands of interior north- central Michigan, Leota-Tustin area and north.

- Possible Shower/Storm Saturday and Frost Saturday Night

Shortwave trough arrives Friday night with a clipper-type low bringing showers and a few thunderstorms lingering into the afternoon given the steeper lapse rates. Cool air in northerly flow on the back side of the sfc low results in low temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s Saturday night with scattered frost potential in the colder outlying areas.

- Low Confidence in Forecast Details Next Week

Shortwave ridging on Sunday eventually gives way to another trough Monday with some showers and a few thunderstorms possible along a cold front. There continues to be low confidence with forecast details by the middle of next week as the GFS goes out of phase with the Euro and GEM. There continues to be a general signal for a longwave trough forming across the central/eastern CONUS by late in the week which could bring some showers and storms by Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 149 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

There is a low probability for IFR at the terminals overall, but should it occur, it would most likely be at AZO and possibly BTL today before 22Z. The chances for VFR at all terminals goes up significantly after 00Z tonight.

There is a better chance for brief fuel alternate ceilings (cigs)
below 2000 feet at the I-94 terminals (AZO, BTL, JXN) as suggested by even lower cigs just south of I-94, which we don't expect to encroach much farther north. Not expecting visibility to drop below 3SM at this time. The rainband that's oriented roughly along a BIV to DTW line is beginning to pivot counterclockwise as it shifts eastward, meaning that GRR should start to see improvement relatively soon, whereas BTL and JXN could be seeing the longest duration restrictions this afternoon into early tonight.



MARINE
Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

An east breeze this morning will become north by afternoon with some gusts to 20 knots. The winds near Big and Little Sable Points may be marginally hazardous for small craft this afternoon. Northwest winds on Saturday may build 3-5 foot waves over at least a portion of the nearshore.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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