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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 405 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Through early evening..Southwest winds around 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 9 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..West gales to 35 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds around 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 091943 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 243 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Short Term/Long Term/Marine

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 243 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

- Lake Effect Snow Sunday

Showers and strong winds have shifted east of the area with the cold front. Gusty southwest winds will remain though with gusts around 20 to 30 mph. We will see a round of precipitation move in after 7pm this evening with a round of 500 mb positive vorticiy advection. The rain/snow mix will transition to snow overnight as temperatures fall into the 30s. Little to no snow accumulation is expected overnight.

Sunday morning we'll see another front move through bringing northwest winds and a better fetch off of Lake Michigan. Delta Ts will be around 16 degrees along with some instability over the lake to produce some lake effect snow bands. We'll be just tapping into the dendritic snow growth layer with the shallow moisture so expecting light amounts around an inch mainly along the lakeshore through Monday night. Highs Sunday will be around 20 degrees cooler than today in the mid to upper 30s with lows Sunday night in the 20s.


LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

High pressure will move into the region Monday ahead of the next shortwave trough Tuesday. This parent low rooted in northern Ontario will bring light precipitation chances for northern lower MI, but limited moisture and subsidence with low-level drying should keep conditions dry south of US-10. While most areas should stay dry, winds will become breezy Tuesday as an increasing pressure gradient over the region supports gusts to 30 to 35 mph across the area.

High pressure slides back into the region mid-week bringing continued dry and quiet conditions to end the work week. High temperatures will stay generally in the mid 30s to low 40s, with lows in the 20s.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

A surface front continues to pass through lower Michigan this afternoon sparking off showers with gusty winds to 40 to 50 mph.
The front has now cleared MKG, GRR, AZO, and BTL, and will be passing through LAN and JXN momentarily. Following the passage of the front, winds will shift westerly and will gradually weaken into the rest of the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile ceilings will scatter out into VFR this afternoon and evening behind the front as the dry slow noses into the region.

Northwest flow along the backside of this departing low will trigger lake effect clouds and snow showers for far southwest lower Michigan. Ceilings will drop back into MVFR after 06z tonight, then lake effect snow will be possible after 12z Sunday morning.



MARINE
Issued at 243 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Gusty southwest to west winds continue and shift to the northwest Sunday with wave heights around 5 to 7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Monday waves and winds look to drop below Small Craft Advisory criteria, but build back up from the southwest Monday night.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.

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