Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chester, VT

KEY MESSAGES
1) Isolated roadways in the Mohawk and Upper-Hudson Valleys and Bennington County could be slick this morning due to a light coating of snow from persistent overnight lake effect snow showers.

2) Two end-of-week clipper systems will bring a mix of rain and snow to the region, bringing the potential for additional isolated travel conditions.

3) Unsettled, though near to above normal conditions this weekend will lead to additional erosion of the pre-existing, high-elevation snowpack and force the potential for additional minor river rises.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Low-level, northwest winds beneath moist, cyclonic flow aloft continue to be just sufficient to allow a fractured lake effect snow band off Lake Ontario to persist across portions of the Mohawk and Upper- Hudson Valleys as well as southern Vermont early this morning. Highway web and Mesonet cameras have shown light accumulations in these areas with portions of the NYS Thruway and Northway having a light coating on them. With temperatures well below freezing across the region, these areas could maintain their coating through the morning commute, making for a potentially slick morning commute. Such slippery travel conditions could also expand further south into the Capital Region by daybreak as the band slowly shifts south. Based on latest scans of the KENX radar, this is a little uncertain as reflectivity seems to be trending weaker as winds become a bit more westerly. However, we did extend slight chance to chance PoPs into the Albany area for the next couple of hours as light flurries or a quick shower is possible before the lake connection weakens enough to allow precipitation to dissipate.

By daybreak, or shortly thereafter, the lake connection will be lost and snow showers will completely dissipate across our region. High pressure currently expanding northeastward from the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic regions will continue to push farther northward making for fair weather on this Wednesday. That said, it will still be rather chilly for this time of year as arctic air beneath a persistent, upper-level trough hovers overhead.
Highs today will therefore only reach the mid 20s to upper 30s.
It will be much less windy though thanks to the much slackened pressure gradient and weaker cold air advection so the chill won't feel as unpleasant as it did yesterday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Unfortunately our regionwide dry conditions last only a short duration, as the aforementioned high shifts to the northeast into tonight and eventually departs. In its wake, a weak shortwave trough will swing through the region Thursday as its associated weak surface cyclone tracks overhead just along/south of the James Bay. Weak forcing and little moisture associated with this system will limit precipitation in terms of spatial spread, likely remaining confined to high terrain areas where upslope flow will enhance lift and ultimately column moisture.
These areas will remain largely cool enough Thursday for snow to be the primary precipitation type resulting from showers throughout the day. However some scattered showers could drift into the Mohawk Valley which, with warmer temperatures, could see either a mix of rain and snow and/or some plain rain. That said, a southerly flow regime developing ahead of this system will allow temperatures to rise closer to seasonal normals.
Highs Thursday will therefore be in the low to mid 30s across higher elevations and upper 30s to mid 40s in large valley areas.

Some showers linger into Thursday night but by daybreak Friday, dry conditions should be reinforced regionwide as Thursday's system departs and another anticyclone builds to our south.
However, by Friday afternoon, another shortwave will begin to approach the region, this time from the Great Lakes. This system will likely bring more widespread precipitation in comparison to that of Thursday as the warm air advection associated with it looks stronger and the shortwave aloft looks to deepen as it tracks through the region, potentially driving a surface response in the development of a weak cyclone. In this case, dynamic forcing would ultimately be strengthened and precipitation would become more stratiform than convective.

The primary precipitation type Friday will likely be rain as upper-level, geopotential heights will be higher across the region on the northeast periphery of a large-scale ridge centered about an anomalous anticyclone situated in the Desert Southwest. Given this, highs Friday will actually be closer to and a bit higher than normal with values primarily spanning the 40s and 50s. But, with precipitation lasting through Friday night and temperatures falling to the 30s, some snow will likely mix in if not become the primary precipitation type for a short period of time particularly across higher terrain areas.
This could potentially lead to some slippery travel conditions in isolated spots early on Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Above normal temperatures this weekend and potential additional chances for rain will ultimately lead to the further erosion of the existing snowpack across our higher terrain areas and potential for additional minor river rises. The beginning of next week, too, looks to feature temperatures that are cooler but still largely above freezing which could contribute to those rises further. At this time, we are not anticipating any widespread impacts from ice jams, but as some rivers still have a decent amount of ice on them, it will be something we continue to monitor closely in the event that some minor flooding occurs.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 06Z Thursday, mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. However, lingering band of lake effect snow showers may settle southward and bring brief periods of MVFR/IFR Vsbys and MVFR Cigs to KALB and KPSF through around 08Z-09Z/Wed. Otherwise, some occasional Cigs of 4000-6000 FT AGL through this morning, mainly at KGFL, with increasing high clouds this afternoon/evening.

West/northwest winds 8-12 KT with a few gusts up to 20-25 KT will continue to decrease to 5-10 KT by daybreak and will then persist through late this morning. Winds will then back into the south to southwest at 4-8 KT this afternoon, becoming light/variable after sunset except remaining south at 4-8 KT at KALB into tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.