Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chester, VT

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Key Messages:

- Above normal temps this afternoon by 15-20 degrees.

- Scattered showers (30-70% chance) and isolated to scattered thunderstorms (15-30% chance) expected to occur ahead of a cold front. Some strong gusty winds possible with the thunderstorms.

Discussion:

As of 353 AM EDT...A warm front continues to move north of most of the forecast area. A much milder air mass is over the region this morning. Eastern NY and western New England will be in a warm sector with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60F by the afternoon as strong south to southwest flow occurs ahead of a prefrontal disturbance and a cold front. H850 temps based on the latest NAEFS will be +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal. The actual values are about +10C to +13C. An initial batch of showers with a few thunderstorms will move across the northern zones in the late morning. They will be primarily north of the I-90 corridor.

The south to southwest winds will increase to 10-20 mph with a few gusts to 25-30 mph. NBM probs continue to be high in the 70-100% range for max temps to exceed 75F in the lower elevations of the Mohawk and Hudson River Valleys, as well as the south-central Taconics and portions of NW CT. The latest HRRRs show 0-6 km shear increasing to 40-50 KT ahead of the cold front with mean SBCAPEs in the 300-750 J/kg range. MLCAPEs from the CAMs are generally below 500 J/kg. A few discrete cells may form in the early to mid pm forming into a line or broken/discontinuous line generally between 3-7 pm. The latest SPC Day 1 has a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms for marginal hail and wind from Albany north and west. Some taller updrafts may occur if greater instability is realized. Some of the CAMs like the 3-km NAMnest have sfc dewpoints in the 60s. As the low-level winds increase to 40-50 KT (850-700 hPa layer)
some momentum transfer could occur with the convection. Gusty winds looks like the greater threat and we can not rule out a few damaging winds (>50 KT) with the frontal passage. The better mid level lapse rates depart this morning.

Max temps were favored close to the NBM/EC MOS with readings near 80F at KALB and upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys and 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mtns. Some downsloping off the eastern Catskills and Helderbergs may cause temps to spike up in the Capital District.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Key Messages:

- Seasonably cool, dry and breezy Easter Sunday.

- Shower chances increase late Mon pm into Mon night with a 20-35% chance of at least 0.25" rainfall over the southwest Adirondacks.

Discussion:

Scattered showers and isolated-scattered thunderstorms diminish in the early evening especially from southern VT, the Capital Region and the northern Catskills south and east. The cold front slides through with cold advection and subsidence occurring overnight. The skies will gradually clear and temps should fall off fairly sharply northwest of the Tri Cities with upper 20s to mid 30s over the Adirondack Park. Expect upper 30s to mid/upper 40s over the rest of the forecast area.

Easter Sunday will feature an increase of sunshine with mostly sunny and breezy conditions. The mid and upper level trough axis will be moving downstream in the morning. High pressure ridges in from the Great Lakes Region. A sfc pressure gradient will exist between the anticyclone building in and low pressure moving into the Canadian Maritimes. Northwest winds will be 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-35 mph. Some fire weather concerns may arise and see the fire wx section below. Max temps will be seasonable in the mid 50s to around 60F in the valleys and mid 40s to lower 50s over the higher terrain.

The sfc high builds in over NY and New England and its centered over s-cntrl Quebec Sunday night. Near ideal radiational cooling conditions are expected with mostly clear skies and light to calm winds with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s. The colder readings will be over the mtns and in the sheltered valleys.

Mid and high clouds quickly increase on Monday, as low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest and the western Great Lakes Region.
The 500 hPa ridge axis moves in over New England by the afternoon. Low and mid level heights begin to fall over upstate NY with some warm advection showers impacting locations north and west of Albany by the afternoon. Max temps will be seasonable again. Scattered to numerous showers overspread the region Mon night with increased synoptic forcing ahead of the warm front and the secondary wave of low pressure the develops over the region in the southwest flow, as the parent or primary low moves across southeast Ontario into Quebec overnight. Lows will be mainly in the 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Isolated to scattered showers linger Tuesday morning, mainly in higher terrain areas to the east and west of the Hudson River Valley, as a vertically stacked low pressure system departs to the north and east. In its wake, high pressure building in at the surface will be met with zonal flow aloft to reinforce dry conditions through the middle of the week. Temperatures during this time will largely range above normal, courtesy of increasing 850 mb temperatures, beginning in the 50s across higher terrain to mid 70s in the mid-Hudson Valley Tuesday and warming to the 60s and 70s by Thursday. Low temperatures will subsequently be rather mild during this time, falling to the 30s to low/mid 40s Tuesday night then warming to the upper 30s to upper 40s by Thursday night.

The end of the long term forecast period has had some degree of alignment in that both the ECMWF and GFS are now indicating showers beginning to spread into the region Friday morning from west to east. However, the feature responsible for these showers is still not well resolved at this point, so slight to lower chance PoPs were maintained regionwide. Temperatures will continue to be on the warmer side Friday with values similar to those of Wednesday.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 06z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning ahead of a slow-moving cold front. Such conditions are anticipated to persist through much of the 06z cycle, though some light showers or thunderstorms (KALB) could force near to MVFR ceilings later this afternoon. Some initial low level wind shear will gradually erode as the LLJ decreases later this morning. Winds will remain breezy, becoming somewhat gusty by this afternoon with sustained speeds ranging from 10 to nearly 20 kt with gusts up to 20-30 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night to Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

FIRE WEATHER
Today will be warmer with high temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower to mid 80s in valley areas, with a west- southwest wind gusting 20-30 mph at times. However, low level moisture will also be increasing with minimum RH values of 40-60% expected and scattered showers and thunderstorms impacting the region in the afternoon.

Sunday looks cooler, but also much drier with minimum RH values of 20-35% and northwest winds gusting 20-30 mph, so there is an increased risk of elevated fire weather spread and conditions will need to be monitored over the next day.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.