Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 7:36 PM Moonrise 2:29 PM   Moonset 4:08 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS61 KALY 181940 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 340 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will settle south along the New England coast, providing a cool and damp onshore flow, bringing continued occasional showers and some drizzle into this evening. After a brief break tonight into Friday morning, additional showers are likely Friday afternoon and night associated with a cold frontal passage. Cool and breezy conditions return for the upcoming weekend, with a few passing showers possible Saturday, and dry conditions for Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
An occluded front will basically weaken in place across the region late this afternoon into evening as it encounters a small area of high pressure building south along the ME/MA coast. However, a moist easterly onshore flow associated with the high will keep plenty of clouds around with isolated to scattered light showers and/or patchy drizzle continuing into this evening. Ridging aloft should provide dry conditions overnight, but with clouds likely lingering due to moisture trapped beneath an inversion. Lows will range from the mid/upper 30s in the mountains to around 40 in the valleys.

A few breaks of sunshine are possible early Fri with the ridge axis aloft over the area, but skies should remain mostly cloudy overall. The ridge axis then shifts east of our area by Friday afternoon, as a cold front starts to approach from the west.
Later Fri afternoon into Fri evening, the cold front will bring widespread showers north/west of the Capital District, becoming more scattered from Albany south/east with a low level S-SW flow resulting in some downsloping. Rainfall amounts will be light with < 0.25" expected. Prior to the cold front arriving, high temperatures should reach the upper 50s to lower 60s in lower elevations and lower/mid 50s in the higher terrain.
Southerly winds will increase ahead of the front, with gusts of 20-30 mph developing.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Guidance in good agreement indicating the cold front passing through from west to east Friday evening into Fri night. Mainly isolated to scattered showers will occur along the front, with dry conditions developing in its wake. It will take much of the night for the front to clear the entire area. With mostly cloudy skies and a developing westerly breeze behind the front, low temperatures will be held up a bit despite cold advection ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday starts out dry with surface ridging extending north/east from the Ohio Valley/mid Atlantic region. Some sunshine is expected during the morning to early afternoon, which should help boost temperatures into the upper 50s/lower 60s in the valleys. Then, a fairly potent upper level short wave approaching from the Great Lakes will move across the region Sat afternoon into early Sat evening. This disturbance will bring increasing clouds and widely scattered showers, along with gusty westerly winds around 25-35 mph developing. Some snow flakes could mix in across the higher terrain.

Drying/clearing will quickly take place Sat night in wake of the disturbance, with surface ridging extending north/east into our area. Lows will be colder than recent nights, with upper 20s to around 30 expected in the higher terrain and lower/mid 30s in the lower elevations. There will remain a westerly breeze, but winds will not be as gusty as during the day.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Sunday looks to be dry and cool with zonal flow aloft and weak surface ridging. Some instability clouds will likely develop, but there still should be plenty of breaks through the day. It will be breezy as well, with W-NW winds gusting 20-30 mph at times. Highs will be slightly below normal, with mid/upper 40s in the higher terrain and mid/upper 50s in lower elevations.

Dry conditions and moderating temperatures should occur on Monday, with a small area of high pressure in place. Tuesday should start out dry with a mild southerly flow developing ahead of a cyclone approaching from the Midwest. Chances for showers will increase later in the day into Tue evening as this system gets closer. There are model differences with regards to the track/evolution so will mention mainly chance to likely PoPs for now Tue night through Wed as the system moves across our region.

A much colder air mass then builds in Wed night into Thu with NW and potentially strong cold advection developing. Mainly dry/breezy conditions are expected, with below normal temperatures.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Light showers and drizzle have continued periodically throughout the morning and into early this afternoon with adjacent low pressure encroaching further upon the region.
Conditions have varied between VFR and MVFR throughout the day with ceilings varying in height. However, as some dry air moves in aloft, ceiling heights should gradually rise into persistent VFR levels. In fact, KALB and KGFL have already come up into VFR thresholds. However, heights could continue to vary here as light showers and drizzle remain in the vicinity.

Throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into tonight, primarily dry conditions should persist with latest guidance hinting at shower/drizzle activity continuing to taper off.
Ceilings should maintain VFR heights by 20z this afternoon to 00z tonight with primarily dry conditions persisting. Winds throughout the period will be light and variable with speeds of 2-5 kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:50 AM EDT     4.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:15 AM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:04 PM EDT     5.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:54 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Albany
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:42 AM EDT     4.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:05 AM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:56 PM EDT     5.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:44 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Burlington, VT,