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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 935 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Rest of today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely late this morning, then a chance of rain showers this afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of rain showers in the evening.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of rain showers in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Rain likely in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow overnight.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 030253 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 953 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
A weak wave of low pressure will track along a stalled frontal boundary, resulting in some showers, drizzle, and fog tonight.
Another better organized area of low pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes Sunday through Monday with widespread rain, which may end as some wet snow later Monday or Monday night as some cooler air filters in to start the new work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Weak low pressure tracking along a stalled frontal boundary across the Southern Tier will dissipate overnight. Weak dynamic lift coupled with lots of low level moisture is resulting in drizzle and fog late this evening with some steadier rain showers mixed in. Precipitation will taper off gradually as the surface low and associated wind fields weaken. However there will continue to be lots of low moisture and fog overnight.
Greatest reductions in visibility will be across higher terrain, where cloud bases will intersect the ground. Temperatures will remain nearly steady in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

The region will be situated between two weak low pressure systems Sunday morning. A surface trough will persist across the area with northeast flow across the Saint Lawrence Valley and Lake Ontario and a southerly flow across southern portions of western NY. A shortwave trough over the Mid- western states will approach the region the first part of Sunday. Low pressure over the Mid- Atlantic region will move north while low pressure over the Mid- west moves east and these two systems will merge near, if not over the forecast area Sunday afternoon. Initially, strong forcing and moisture advection from the Atlantic will move into western and central NY Sunday morning. Widespread, light to moderate rain will move from south to north across the forecast area. There is uncertainty in the exact location of the surface low as it moves into the forecast area, however widespread rain will spread across the remainder of the region by Sunday afternoon. There could be a period where a dry slot enters western NY Sunday afternoon. This would lower chances for widespread rain before filing back in with support from the approaching shortwave trough. Rainfall amounts will average 0.25 inches to 0.50 inches for most areas, and up to around 0.75 east of Lake Ontario. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 40s east of Lake Ontario to the upper 40s to low 50s across the western Southern Tier.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Sunday evening starts off quite wet with widespread light to moderate rain still lifting across the region. Rain will be driven by PVA ahead of sharp negative tilted shortwave tracking across the lower Great Lakes along with divergence aloft of strong 175+ kt jet riding ahead of this trough from Tennessee Valley to New England and moisture advection over especially from Finger Lakes to North Country on nose of 45-50kt low-level jet. Main sfc-H85 low tracks as close as Lake Ontario toward St.
Lawrence River Sunday evening into the early overnight hours.
Initially that track favors strong ESE-SE winds but these quickly shift to the SW as the low shifts by to the north.
Forecast soundings indicate those SW winds will be gusty as the stronger winds will be occurring as cooler air arrives from the west. Gusts may reach 30-35 mph near the lakes and across the Niagara Frontier with 25-35 mph elsewhere. Peak period for stronger winds will be early Sunday evening through early overnight hours. Steady precipitation will taper through the night, with the cold air eventually changing rain to a mix of rain/snow late Sunday night over the higher terrain of western and north central New York. Snow accumulations late Sunday night will be very minimal as sfc temps will only have fallen into the low to mid 30s at the coldest.

Monday and Monday night, it becomes just cold enough for at least a weak lake response as temps at top of fairly shallow inversion fall to -8c to -10c. Mean winds initially favor higher terrain of WNY and the Tug Hill on a 250-260 flow for some light snow showers on Monday but these steering winds eventually shift to the NW as the low moves farther east and high pressure shifts across the Great Lakes.
Soundings show lowering inversions as this happens with only very top of the lake effect convective layer reaching the DGZ. Long story short is that any lake effect late Monday into Monday night will be light and scattered and be low impact. Marginal nature of low-level temps shows up too as highs on Monday could still reach near 40 across the lower elevations. Lows Monday night will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, so really not all that cold.

Late Monday night into Tuesday a stronger embedded shortwave trough in the mean NW flow troughing eastern Canada/Great Lakes/northeast will swing across the lower Great Lakes. Strength and track of the wave is not quite certain (main difference in how far north the wave tracks), but it does appear it will come close enough to produce areas of light snow over southwest NYS (maybe 1" total over higher terrain). Once the wave passes, a slightly cooler NW flow will develop across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Though moisture is limited and inversions low, could be a spray of scattered snow showers mainly southeast of both lakes later Tuesday night as what moisture is there will be intersecting the DGZ. All areas in the CWA will see min temps fall into the 20s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
On Wednesday broad low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coastline will slide further east and out to sea...while high pressure and drier air over the Upper Great Lakes gradually settles into the Lower Lakes region. Lingering cold northerly to northwesterly cyclonic flow on the backside of the departing low will lead to some scattered snow showers south and southeast of the lakes Wednesday morning...with these thinning out in coverage in the afternoon as the ridge approaches and provides increasing drying and subsidence.
Otherwise highs will be a bit below normal...with these ranging from the upper 20s across the higher terrain to the lower to mid 30s elsewhere.

Wednesday night and Thursday the axis of the surface ridge will slide off to our southeast...while another broad/elongated surface trough develops across the Upper Great Lakes. The ensuing warm air advection pattern across our region will help to squelch any lingering weak lake response Wednesday night...then will bring a more general chance of snow and rain showers to our area during the day Thursday
As for temps
expect lows in the upper teens to mid 20s Wednesday night to be followed by highs ranging from the upper 20s/lower 30s across the higher terrain to the mid and upper 30s elsewhere on Thursday.

Thursday night and Friday a shortwave will ripple east-southeastward from Minnesota to southern Ontario...and in the process will encourage a wave of low pressure to develop and track through the aforementioned broader-scale surface trough in a similar manner.
With this wave remaining to our north...the warm advection pattern across our area will continue with scattered snow showers mixing with and then changing over to predominantly rain between late Thursday night and Friday. Temps will also continue on an upward arc...with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s Thursday evening giving way to rising readings overnight...with highs on Friday then likely to climb to the mid 30s to lower 40s east of Lake Ontario...and to the mid to upper 40s across much of Western New York.

By early next weekend the above system should be weakening and sliding off to our northeast. This should result in a general reduction in precipitation chances across our region in time for Saturday...with the lack of significant cold advection in its wake also allowing temperatures to remain at above normal levels.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mainly IFR/LIFR flight conditions will persist across western and north central NY through Sunday. A weak wave of low pressure over the Southern Tier will washout overnight, with precipitation tapering off late in the night. However, lots of low moisture will remain, with high confidence in low cigs, and variable visibility. Overall have low confidence in vsby forecasts overnight.

A stronger low pressure system will move across the area late Sunday, with widespread moderate rain moving in during the day.
Generally expect IFR or lower conditions, except at KROC where the southerly component flow will downslope and likely raise cigs to MVFR.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday...MVFR/IFR in periods of rain. Some wet snow may mix in by Monday, especially across higher terrain.

Tuesday...Areas of MVFR in mixed rain/wet snow showers.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow showers.

Thursday....VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.

MARINE
Winds will increase on Lake Ontario late tonight with the approach of low pressure from the Ohio Valley. Issued small craft headlines for Western Lake Ontario due to the easterly winds. Elsewhere expect winds to remain below small craft criteria through the daytime hours Sunday.

Southwesterly winds will increase after the surface low passes by Sunday night, which will likely require more widespread small craft headlines.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for LOZ042- 043.

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