Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilson, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Prefrontal trough/initial cold front bringing a line of gusty showers to the eastern lake Ontario region this afternoon.
Secondary/main cold front across western Lake Ontario will cross the region through early evening and produce a few more scattered showers and storms, mainly east of Lake Ontario and the Saint Lawrence Valley, while drier air aloft should help to maintain mainly dry conditions across western New York.

Elevated winds will continue this afternoon before dropping this evening.

Canadian high pressure will build into the region Friday and Friday night guaranteeing dry and cooler weather. High temperatures in the 70s with overnight lows in the 50s, with some 40s across the Tug and Western Dacks.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Quasi-zonal mid-level flow set up across the Great Lakes Saturday morning will gradually give way to a trough digging south across eastern Ontario and Quebec through Sunday. As such, surface high pressure that was overhead Friday will move offshore Saturday as a convectively enhanced shortwave and associated surface low moves east from the central Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Not only will this pattern support heat and humidity to advect into the area, a few scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening. There is some potential for stronger convection in this timeframe as deep layer shear increases to around 40kts, though the timing of the main shortwave and consequently the amount of instability remains a bit uncertain. At this juncture this potential appears to be greatest across the Southern Tier and southern/central Finger Lakes region.

Some measure of shower/thunderstorm activity will likely linger late Saturday night into Sunday morning as the system's main surface cold front moves through the region. Drier and more comfortable weather will inevitably make a return as high pressure builds back into the region from the upper Great Lakes.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Exiting mid-level troughing will support a mid-level ridge to build across the central and eastern Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday before zonal flow sets up mid-week. As such surface high pressure will slide east across the central Great Lakes Monday and off the New England coastline Tuesday, which will result in a period of dry weather through at least the first half of Tuesday. A potential shortwave trough gliding through the zonal flow, may support some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. The NBM appears more pessimistic compared to other long range ensembles and thus could see the forecast trending drier, though there remains plenty of uncertainty at this range to leave NBM's sChc/Chc PoPs in place for now.

Regardless of precipitation chances, the offshore deep anticyclonic flow will cause the heat and humidity to return, especially by midweek when some areas across the Lake Plains and Genesee Valley could reach the low 90s.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Pre-frontal trough will bring a period of gusty showers to the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon with the bulk of this convection shifting east of KART by 19z. Main cold front will cross the region late this afternoon/early evening. Highest confidence of any associated storms will be across the Saint Lawrence Valley and eastern Lake Ontario region.

Winds will quickly drop off this evening behind the main cold front. Developing north-northwesterly upslope flow will result in the development of another period of fairly MVFR ceilings, with some limited IFR possible across the higher terrain.
Gradual improvement to VFR from north to south will then overspread the lower elevations overnight.

Outlook...

Friday...Improvement to VFR areawide.

Friday night...Mainly VFR with localized IFR possible in valley fog.

Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms and associated brief restrictions.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

MARINE
Main cold front will cross early this evening with winds becoming north-northwest and slacken following its passage. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected on both lakes into tonight, but calmer conditions will return Friday as high pressure builds across the region.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ001-002- 007.
Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ003>005.
Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ006.
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ010.
Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020- 040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LOZ043>045.