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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilson, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 051550 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1050 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. A northwest flow of chilly air will continue to support scattered snow showers across the region this afternoon. A weak clipper system will then track across New York State Friday and this will produce a general snowfall of a couple inches. After one more chilly day Saturday, we can look forward to a notable warm up Sunday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A chilly northwest flow will continue to generate scattered snow showers this afternoon . with the most widespread activity being found southeast of both lakes. As the limiting cap lowers to under 5k ft though . the activity will become weaker and less widespread. Most areas will only pick up a fresh coating of snow . but as much as two new inches of snow could accumulate in the lake snow belts between 11 Am and nightfall.

Out next opportunity for snow will come fairly quickly tonight as a clipper tracks southeast toward New York State. The leading edge of snow should move into western New York shortly after midnight then expand across the remainder of the area overnight. Snowfall amounts should be no more than an inch by daybreak Friday, but this could be enough to slow things for the morning commute.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. A compact clipper system will cross the eastern Great Lakes Friday morning. This system is small, but will produce a brief period of fairly strong forcing given the associated well defined mid level shortwave, upper level jet, and tightening ribbon of 900-700MB layer frontogenesis along its path. This will support a few hours of steady snow Friday morning crossing the region from west to east, with the forcing and snowfall bullseye running down the NY Thruway corridor. Marginal surface temperatures will hinder snow/water ratios and accumulation, but still expect 1-2 inches across most of the region Friday morning. There will likely be less near the PA state line, and also in the Saint Lawrence Valley farther removed from the stronger frontogentic forcing. Once the main area of snow moves east, expect a few more scattered snow showers as weak northwest flow lake effect develops. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 30s, except upper 20s for the North Country.

850MB temps bottom out around -11C Friday night, allowing lake induced equilibrium levels to rise to around 10-12K feet briefly. This will continue to support a lake response in a northwest flow regime. Off Lake Erie, high pressure will quickly build towards the lake, with associated drier air and lowering inversion heights limiting the potential for lake effect after Friday evening. Upslope flow combined with weakening lake effect may produce snow showers across the Chautauqua Ridge, with minor accumulations. This will end by Saturday morning as the surface high crests over Lake Erie. Lake Ontario will have a little better setup, with the pattern and high resolution model guidance suggesting the potential for an upstream connection to Georgian Bay. This may produce a few inches of accumulation southeast of the lake focused on Wayne and northern Cayuga counties. Some of this may linger into Saturday morning before ending by midday as high pressure builds over Lake Ontario. It will turn colder Friday night, with lows in the lower 20s close to the lakes and teens inland.

Outside of the potential for lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario Saturday morning, the remainder of the area will be dry on Saturday as high pressure builds across the eastern Great Lakes. Expect some breaks of sun to develop outside of lake effect clouds that remain southeast of the lakes. Temperatures will be just a little below average, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s in most areas, and low to mid 20s for the North Country.

High pressure will drift slowly off the east coast Saturday night and Sunday. Southwesterly return flow developing in the wake of the departing high will bring a substantial warm-up to the region starting Sunday afternoon. Following a chilly start early Sunday morning, highs will rebound into the mid 40s across Western NY, and mid to upper 30s east of Lake Ontario. Warm advection will bring a west to east increase in mid/high clouds.

Warm advection will continue Sunday night across the region with deep southwesterly flow between high pressure off the east coast and a developing trough over the central Plains. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower. Increasing forcing from an approaching shortwave and ongoing warm advection will support an increasing chance of showers later Sunday night. Temperatures will be warm enough for just rain in most of the area, although precip may start as a little wet snow or mix in Lewis County.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The first half of next week will be very changeable, with a strong warm-up peaking on Monday, followed by much colder air by the middle of the week. Along with the cold air, the pattern appears favorable for significant lake effect snow east of Lakes Erie and Ontario Tuesday night through at least Wednesday.

Looking at the details, a strong and progressive shortwave will move through the northern Plains Monday, supporting the development of an elongated surface low from the upper Mississippi Valley to the central Great Lakes. The resulting low pressure will deepen and consolidate as it crosses Lake Huron and moves into Quebec Monday night and Tuesday, with a trailing strong cold front moving across the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday.

Showers will be likely Monday through Tuesday morning, supported first by warm advection and increasing large scale ascent ahead of the system, and finally from the cold front. Rainfall amounts look to be manageable, although they will combine with snowmelt to result in some response to rivers and creeks. Some previous model runs (such as the 12Z/Dec 4 GFS) have suggested the potential for damaging winds Tuesday as the deepening low passes by to our north and west. The latest 00Z runs of the GFS/ECMWF/GEM are not as strong with the deepening low and wind fields, only supporting advisory level winds at most. This potential will need to be watched in future model runs given the favorable low track.

Following the cold front, dramatically colder air will pour into the Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. The magnitude and depth of the cold air, available moisture, and position of upper level features all look to be FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Obviously at this time range specifics are not possible in terms of location and amounts. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Cigs of 2500 to 3500 ft during the midday hours should improve to around 5000 ft during the course of the afternoon. The exceptions will be southeast of both lakes where mainly MVFR cigs will accompany lake effect snow showers. Vsbys in areas of lake snows will range from 2-5SM.

The lake snow showers will become less widespread late this afternoon and evening. While this may allow cigs to briefly improve to VFR levels . weak low pressure approaching from the Upper Great Lakes will lead to the onset of widespread snow after 08z. Cigs will drop to MVFR levels while vsbys will drop to IFR to LIFR levels across the far western counties.

Outlook . Friday . IFR in widespread snow. Minimal impact to operations. Saturday and Sunday . VFR. Monday . VFR to MVFR in rain showers.

MARINE. Fresh to moderate westerlies will remain in place today, then a ridge crossing the region will allow winds to finally weaken tonight. Weak low pressure will cross the lower Great Lakes late tonight and Friday. In the wake of this system, winds will briefly freshen on both lakes. This could lead a new round of SCAs for the Lake Erie nearshores.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LOZ043>045. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . RSH NEAR TERM . RSH/TMA SHORT TERM . Hitchcock LONG TERM . Hitchcock AVIATION . RSH MARINE . Apffel/RSH/TMA

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY	6 mi	56 min	W 22 G 26	32°F			1012.2 hPa (+3.4)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY	19 mi	62 min		32°F			1012.1 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY	30 mi	56 min	W 19 G 22	33°F	38°F		1012.4 hPa (+3.2)	19°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY	44 mi	62 min		35°F			1012.1 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY	15 mi	63 min	W 9	4.00 mi	Light Snow Fog/Mist	30°F	28°F	92%	1013 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAG

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)

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W11 G17

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Weather Map

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (11,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY

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