Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilson, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 101816 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 216 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak upper level disturbance will produce a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but the vast majority of the time will be rain free. An approaching weak cold front will then bring some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. Warmth and humidity will continue through Tuesday before the cold front ushers in less humid air mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A weak warm frontal segment will move east of the area this afternoon, while a convectively augmented shortwave passes north of Lake Ontario. This combined with moderate diurnal instability and lake breeze boundaries will support a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. These will be most widespread across the St Lawrence Valley, but also will develop across the Western Finger Lakes and even across Niagara County along a lake breeze convergence boundary.

Otherwise, today will be hot with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Heat index values will be in the mid 90s from the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes to Central NY.

Any widely scattered showers and storms will end this evening, leaving dry weather and partly cloudy to mainly clear skies overnight. A very warm airmass and light breeze will keep temperatures very mild. Expect lows in the lower 70s on the lake plains, and mid 60s across the interior Southern Tier and Lewis County. The breeze will likely prevent fog formation despite the muggy airmass.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. A weak mid level trough and associated weak cold front will approach and eventually move through the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. Looking at the details, Tuesday will start off dry, with scattered showers and storms developing in the afternoon along lake breeze boundaries and a pre-frontal trough. With a lack of any real strong dynamics aloft and a well established lake breeze out of the southwest, areas northeast of the lakes (Buffalo/Watertown) may not see much if any rain during the bulk of the day. The scattered showers and storms will continue Tuesday night with all areas fair game to get some rain as the mid level trough and a cold front cross the area. PWAT values climb to around 1.75 inches, so any storms will be capable of very heavy downpours. Relatively weak shear and poor mid level lapse rates will limit the severe weather risk.

Tuesday will be another very warm and humid day, with highs in the mid 80s across western NY and around 90 from the Genesee Valley/northern Finger Lakes region eastward at lower elevations. The heat index may approach 95 from the Genesee Valley to the northern Finger Lakes and Oswego County.

The frontal boundary will stall just southeast of the region for the Wednesday through Wednesday night timeframe, with surface high pressure building in from the north across the Great Lakes region. A few lingering showers or an isolated storm cannot be ruled out across the interior southern Tier and Finger Lakes region, with the best chance toward the the NY/PA border, with the remainder of the area staying dry. The airmass will be a bit cooler and notably less humid with post-frontal dew points around 60.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Model consensus keeps the weak frontal boundary stalled out just to our south Thursday through Friday as high pressure remains in control of the weather across the bulk of the area. This will provide dry weather for the vast majority of the region, however a few showers cannot be ruled out from time to time across the Southern Tier, especially closer to the NY/PA line. By Saturday surface high pressure over east-central Quebec will slide south toward New Brunswick and Nova Scotia by Sunday, allowing the western end of the stalled boundary to the south, to start pivoting its' way slowly back northward toward western NY. At the same time, a weak mid-level trough will approach the region from the west on Saturday, and this combined with deeper moisture and daytime instability may produce a few showers or storms, especially south of Lake Ontario. Much of the area should be dry Saturday night as the aforementioned southward settling area of high pressure ridges in from the northwest. The next system will approach from the west on Sunday, with the chance for showers increasing from west to east to close out the weekend.

Temperatures will continue to run above average throughout the period. Expect highs in the mid 80s at lower elevations each day, with lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Mainly VFR flight conditions for the 18Z TAF cycle. The exception will be in any showers and thunderstorms. These will be possible through 23Z today, and again after 13Z Tuesday morning. Coverage will be scattered with any impact expected to last an hour or less at any one location. Wind should be strong enough tonight to prevent fog formation despite the muggy airmass.

Outlook .

Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night . Scattered showers and thunderstorms. VFR prevailing, with brief MVFR/IFR possible in storms. Wednesday and Friday . Mainly VFR. Saturday . VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

MARINE. Modest southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots this afternoon will produce some choppy wave action. Expect similar conditions again Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front, but winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Light winds are then expected on Lakes Erie and Ontario Wednesday through Thursday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ003>006-013- 014. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel SHORT TERM . Apffel/JM LONG TERM . Apffel/JM AVIATION . Apffel MARINE . Apffel/Hitchcock

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY	6 mi	90 min	W 6 G 8.9	77°F			1015.9 hPa (-0.4)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY	19 mi	60 min		83°F			1016.3 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY	30 mi	60 min	SW 8.9 G 9.9	78°F	78°F		1017.2 hPa	59°F
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax	33 mi	90 min	SSW 9.7 G 12	74°F	69°F	1 ft	1014.5 hPa (-0.6)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby	37 mi	90 min	WSW 5.8 G 9.7	80°F	74°F		1014.5 hPa (-0.9)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY	44 mi	60 min		78°F			1016.8 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY

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SW18 G22

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NE6 G12

N4 G9

N11 G16

N7 G12

NE8 G11

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY	15 mi	37 min	SSW 17 G 22	10.00 mi	Fair	88°F	68°F	52%	1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAG

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY

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