Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilson, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 8:16PM Saturday August 17, 2019 8:43 AM EDT (12:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:39PMMoonset 7:11AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 1021 Pm Edt Fri Aug 16 2019
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy.
Sunday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers during the day.
Tuesday..South winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ030 Expires:201908170900;;753444 FZUS51 KBUF 170221 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1021 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ030-170900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilson, NY
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location: 43.31, -78.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 171100
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
700 am edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this
weekend as weak systems move east across the region, but there will
be plenty of dry time as well. Meanwhile, the airmass will slowly
warm with increasing humidity levels. The warmth will last into
next week.

Near term through tonight
Regional radar shows showers and thunderstorms approaching
western new york in advance of a shortwave. The latest update is
slightly faster and more in line with latest radar trends and
hrrr guidance. This area of showers and thunderstorms will enter
far western new york this morning. This shortwave will open
slightly as it lifts across the st. Lawrence through this
evening. This provides confidence that fairly widespread
convection today, with instability parameters similar to
yesterday but with a shortwave to provide a better focus.

Showers and storms will spread from western new york this
morning, eventually settling along the typical lake- breeze
boundaries by early afternoon. This convection will become more
widespread at it moves eastward and into central ny following
the progression of the shortwave. These trends are generally
captured by a consensus of mesoscale guidance, and support
likely or categorical pops for most of the forecast area.

Forecast wind profiles (while not terribly impressive) show a
bit more speed and directional shear than the past two days with
700 mb winds increasing to around 30 knots with the shortwave.

Considering that it has been fairly active the past two days,
expect some thunderstorms to produce gusty winds and hail again
today. Will maintain this mention in the zfp and hwo products.

Temperatures will be similar to yesterday but it will be a bit
more humid with dew points increasing to the upper 60s.

Showers and thunderstorms will taper off this evening with the
departure of the shortwave, but there may be a few lingering
showers and an isolated thunderstorm with the approach of
another weaker wave late in the night. Expect a partial
clearing behind the shortwave tonight, mainly from buffalo and
rochester northward. With light winds in place, this may allow
fog to develop with any clearing.

Short term Sunday through Tuesday night
This period will continue to feature active summer weather with
storms possible each day. Temperatures will rise well into the 80s,
with humidity creating apparent temperatures in the low to mid 90s
across the lake plain.

Sunday morning a weak warm front will lift across the region with
possible early morning showers and thunderstorms across wny. Behind
this warm front a sticky airmass will push into our region, one that
will increase SBCAPE to 1000 to 2000 j kg. Two shortwaves will
likely pass through the region, with each wave bringing enhanced mid
level lift that will help to blossom thunderstorms. The first wave
passes through our CWA midday... And will likely trigger storms... Of
which some may bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Tracking the
shortwave... Greatest chances for heavier storms will be southern
portions of wny.

A second shortwave will bring convection across the central great
lakes and into the southern peninsula of ontario canada Sunday. This
shortwave feature and storms will continue to push eastward Sunday
night, likely bringing showers and thunderstorms to our western
zones late Sunday evening and into the early morning hours of
Monday. As the convective shortwave weakens Sunday night and
available instability lowers post-storms, convection will weaken to
just a few isolated showers late Sunday night.

Monday a zonal flow will be found across the region, and with no
discernible shortwaves or triggers for convection... It may be a
quieter day for storms. We will still remain very unstable and a few
thunderstorms could blossom within the afternoon heating. Greatest
chances will likely be across the finger lakes region where the
deeper instability will intersect with a ridge of higher theta-e.

Monday night a weak cool front will push into the region from the
nw, that will lower the humidity some across the north country.

This zonal flow will continue into Tuesday. We expect again another
hot and humid day with plenty of instability around, especially
across wny. A frontal boundary... One that brought some drier air to
the north country and towards areas just south of lake ontario will
lift back northward through the day. Along this warm front more
showers and thunderstorms will develop. Activity will mainly be
across wny, with low chances for convection east of lake ontario
through the day.

Aloft and later in the day the region will begin to feel the
influences of a great lakes trough... With 500 hpa heights beginning
to fall. These falling heights will expand chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the entire CWA Tuesday night.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
This period will feature the transition from summer's humidity and
storms to a fallish period to close out the workweek.

Wednesday's temperatures will be a touch lower than previous
days... With 850 hpa temperatures in the mid to upper teens... And a
fair amount of humidity and clouds around. As the upper level trough
sharpens over the great lakes, height falls within a still very
unstable environment will promote widespread showers and
thunderstorms... Increasing in numbers through the day until a cold
front passes through. There will likely be increased coverage area
of storms in both the prefrontal trough through the day, and then
towards evening when the actual cold front enters our region. Storms
through the day Wednesday and into the early evening hours could
become strong with both gusty winds and hail possible. Increased
lapse rates, bulk wind shear values to 35 to 40 knots, and cape
deepening through the mid levels on forecast soundings will support
these stronger storms. This cold front may come through in
pieces... With the warmer lakes holding the arrival of cooler air
some.

Wednesday night showers along the front and moist cyclonic flow
aloft will also come with a northwest breeze that will bring much
cooler air. Both air and dewpoint temperatures Thursday morning will
be a solid 10 to 15 degrees fahrenheit cooler than the levels they
were at 24-hrs before hand.

Following the mid week cold frontal passage, a large area of high
pressure over the upper great lakes will then build southeast across
the lower great lakes from Thursday into Friday. This will usher in
a notably cooler and less humid airmass. Aside from a low chance for
a few showers on Thursday across eastern areas under the upper level
trough, and possible lake effect rain shower southeast of the lakes
Thursday night, most of the area will see a dry end to the work
week. Highs will range from the upper 60s to the low to mid 70s both
days, with dew points in the 50s. Lows Thursday night will drop into
the 40s for the traditional cooler areas of the southern tier and
east of lake ontario.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the area from west
to east between 13z and 22z today. These are likely to impact
each TAF site for roughly a 2 hour period as they move through.

There is a risk that a few storms will be strong to severe with
gusty winds and hail.

Showers and storms will exit to the east late this afternoon
with dry weather prevailing after 00z. There will again be a
risk for some fog to develop tonight with relatively light winds
and a partial clearing.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of -tsra.

Marine
Winds will become more southerly to southwesterly through this
weekend as a warm front pushes across the lower great lakes. Both
winds and waves are likely to remain below small craft
thresholds through mid-week.

A cold front will bring increasing northwesterly winds late
Wednesday, which will increase wave action and may require small
craft headlines.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel zaff
near term... Apffel
short term... Thomas
long term... Jm thomas
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 6 mi44 min W 1 G 2.9 65°F 1014.2 hPa (-0.0)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 19 mi62 min 70°F 1013.7 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 30 mi56 min SSE 7 G 9.9 71°F 76°F1013.7 hPa54°F
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 33 mi104 min E 3.9 G 3.9 65°F 63°F1 ft1012.5 hPa (-0.6)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 44 mi62 min 68°F 1013 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 46 mi104 min S 18 G 19 73°F 73°F1 ft1012.3 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY15 mi51 minESE 310.00 miOvercast67°F62°F84%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAG

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--E7NE65NE7NE3N4--N7NE6CalmCalm--SW7SW9--SW5S3S6S7--SE4SE5E3
1 day agoE8E8E9E10E9E9E8NE12NE14NE11--NE9E6E6NE7NE5E6NE3------NE5N4--
2 days agoNE9NE8N10NE7N11
G20
N10N9N10NE8NE8NE8NE4NE4E3CalmCalmNE3NE6E4CalmE3E6E7E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.