Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lexington, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 9:10PM Saturday July 11, 2020 11:55 PM EDT (03:55 UTC) Moonrise 11:58PMMoonset 11:27AM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ464 Expires:202007120800;;706089 Fzus63 Kdtx 120129 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 929 Pm Edt Sat Jul 11 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A secondary cold front will continue dropping south across the region early this morning with weak and diffuse high pressure, averaging 29.90 inches, building in its wake across the central great lakes the remainder of today and through early next week. Lhz462>464-120800- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 929 pm edt Sat jul 11 2020
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon...then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northwest in the late morning and early afternoon...then veering to the northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the evening veering to the southeast in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ464


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington, MI
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location: 43.35, -82.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 112301 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 701 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

AVIATION.

High based diurnal cu fades with the loss of heating this evening. Simply some patches of cirrus for the overnight period within a prevailing modest northwest wind. A mid level wave will track through the Ohio valley on Sunday. Some thicker high cloud may glance across southeast Michigan from this system, but convective potential will remain south of the region. Otherwise, another round of high based diurnal cu for the afternoon period. Northwest winds below 10 knots through the day.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low for cigs aob 5000 ft Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

DISCUSSION .

Decent field of diurnal cumulus should give way to mostly clear skies overnight. Convective complex over northeast IL will continue to dive to the southeast and won't present any issues for the forecast area. Impressive shortwave over MN will also dive SE this evening and overnight. The convective complex that develops from this system also will miss us to the southwest.

A lobe of vorticity from that shortwave does advect into far southern lower on Sunday. Given some ML CAPEs in excess of 500 J/kg, will continue with the small chances of showers and storms south of I-94. Otherwise there should be plenty of cumulus on Sunday.

Late Sunday through Monday morning, the forecast area is under the influence of the next potent shortwave that dives from western Ontario just east of the area as reinforcing shot of cool air comes in with a secondary cold front. 850 mb thermal trof is impressive for the middle of July and creates neutral to slightly unstable conditions across Lake Huron as winds become northerly. This will all lead to some stratocu for the thumb and possibly as far south and west as FNT and metro Detroit, and a few light rain showers in the Thumb region.

Later on Monday through Tuesday, the cyclonic flow dissipates as the surface high builds into the region. This will lead to tranquil conditions as the moderation of the cooler air begins.

In the extended periods, the next series of waves and a weak cold front move through Wednesday, Wednesday night, and maybe into Thursday morning. Will focus the higher POPs for these time periods. Otherwise, expect mainly dry conditions as 500 mb heights and the heat build late next week. Will keep POPs at or below the climo (20- 25%) for Thursday thru Saturday.

MARINE .

Weak and diffuse high pressure will continue building across the central Great Lakes the remainder of today and into Sunday as an area of weak low pressure moves southeast across the northern Ohio Valley. Northwest winds will veer more northerly and remain moderate at times as slightly cooler air moving into the region behind a passing reinforcing secondary cold front helps to yield a neutral to unstable stability profile over the local waters amidst a lingering pressure gradient. Gusts around 25 knots will be possible, especially tonight over the open Lake Huron waters, with nearshore waters seeing gusts generally in the 15-20 knot range. Northerly winds will continue through early next week but trend lighter as the pressure gradient weakens and high pressure strengthens over the Great Lakes. Generally dry weather will prevail over the local waters heading into the middle of next week outside of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms late Sunday into Sunday night.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . RBP MARINE . IRL

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 13 mi55 min N 12 G 16 71°F 2 ft1007.3 hPa (+1.1)
PSCM4 27 mi115 min NNW 1 G 1.9 71°F 1025.7 hPa (+1.0)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 31 mi61 min SE 1 G 1.9 70°F 1007.2 hPa61°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 33 mi61 min 74°F 1007.4 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 47 mi61 min N 12 G 15 71°F 61°F1007.3 hPa64°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI39 mi58 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F60°F88%1008.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW3NW4NW6NW7NW8NW6NW7NW7NW8W11
G17
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S5S5S5S6S6
G15
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW3S7S6S7SW5S9S6S8S7NW7CalmNE4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.