Tuesday, March31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lexington, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:56PM Tuesday March 31, 2020 4:19 PM EDT (20:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:23AMMoonset 1:12AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ464 Expires:202004010815;;368979 Fzus63 Kdtx 311949 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 349 Pm Edt Tue Mar 31 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure, 29.50 inches, will track up the southeastern us coast today and Wednesday, with high pressure of 30.70 inches over northern quebec. The central great lakes will remain in between these two systems through Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure, 30.20 inches, will then move over the central great lakes region Thursday and linger into late Friday. Lhz462>464-010815- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 349 pm edt Tue mar 31 2020
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the east late in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the northeast in the late evening and early morning. A chance of early in the morning. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northeast in the late evening and early morning. A chance of rain until afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ464


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington, MI
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location: 43.35, -82.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 312003 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 403 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

DISCUSSION.

Mid afternoon visible satellite imagery shows enough texture to suggest peak daytime warming remains capable of scattered shower production during late afternoon and early evening. Surface temperatures struggling to reach the lower 40s are helping destabilize the boundary layer that is deeply saturated with steep low level lapse rate up to around 800 mb. Water vapor satellite imagery and model analysis fields also still show the upper level trough axis lingering overhead which is providing at least a small amount of support for lift. The latest mesoscale/CAMs match up well with regional and global solutions that suggest the shower activity lasts toward mid evening before diminishing with the loss of daytime warming as the primary support. Clouds then hold firmly through the night which combines with cool cyclonic low level flow across the lakes for a small diurnal range in temperatures. Lows in the mid to upper 30s are on target by sunrise Wednesday.

There are some signs of improved sky condition in the consensus of deterministic model data for Wednesday, especially by afternoon. The incoming air mass with high pressure across northern Ontario becomes dry enough to deactivate Lake Huron which results in a decreasing cloud trend across SE Michigan. It may take until later in the day toward the Detroit area but all locations are expected to get enough sunshine to help high temperatures reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. These values are right around normal for April 1st.

The upper level ridge builds over the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday as part of a highly amplified large scale westerly flow. It is not quite a blocking pattern in the model data but no more than slowly progressive which maintains dry weather across Lower Michigan for the late week period. The center of surface high pressure maintains light and variable to light easterly wind across the region which does not produce much thermal advection. Guidance temperatures are clustered in a mostly narrow range and look reasonable in showing a gradual warming trend into the mid and upper 50s along with a cooler component near the shorelines.

The next chance of rain moves in Saturday as a short wave rounds the base of the trough over the Rockies and into the Midwest. The extended range models show the primary surface low ending up near Hudson Bay with a weak front strung out southward through the Great Lakes and Mississippi valley to the Gulf coast. A standard supply of Gulf moisture into the frontal zone along with weak forcing supports the mid chance POPs offered in the guidance for Saturday afternoon and night. The front brings slightly cooler air into the region for Sunday which is compensated for by a greater amount of sunshine compared to Saturday. High temperatures hold around 60 Sunday and have a chance to reach lower 60s to start next week as south wind develops ahead of the next low pressure system.

MARINE.

Light northerly winds will dominate through the rest of this week as the region remains between a high in northern Quebec and a low tracking along through the southeastern US. Expect some ebb and flow between northerly, northwesterly, and northeasterly tonight and Wednesday as the previously mentioned systems slowly slide east resulting in slight changes in the predominate wind direction over the central Great Lakes. Thursday high pressure will build in from the west reinforcing northerly flow. Winds will remain light and slowly rotate to northeasterly Friday and eventually to southeasterly Saturday as the high begins to move east of the region.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

AVIATION .

Low stratus continues to fluctuate between MVFR and IFR today under a stagnant dynamic pattern. High RH values within the low- levels will readily allow for light showers this afternoon/evening as diurnal heating provides sufficient lift. Coverage will remain scattered in nature thus addressed this concern with TEMPO groups. A first look at these showers was offered at DTW around TAF issuance time with a sharp drop in vsby and a secondary low cig approaching LIFR criteria. Taking this into accounted, decided to reflect this potential for the remaining TEMPOs. Winds will remain light through the period, generally out of the north. Cigs should hover near 1000 kft or just below overnight before gradually rebounding late Wednesday morning. Expect SCT-SKC conditions by Wednesday afternoon across the airspace.

For DTW . Scattered showers will periodically work through this afternoon and evening with IFR cig and vsby reductions at times. Expect a solid period of IFR cig overnight before lifting back to MVFR around sunrise on Wednesday. Winds will generally be northerly AOB 7 kts.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less through early Wednesday afternoon.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



DISCUSSION . BT MARINE . KDK AVIATION . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 31 mi50 min N 15 G 15 37°F 1014 hPa37°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 33 mi50 min 39°F 1014.1 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 47 mi62 min N 11 G 13

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW21
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W9
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W10
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W6
G13
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N9
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G22
SW16
G27
SW21
G39
SW18
G28
SW16
G35

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI39 mi24 minNNE 810.00 miOvercast43°F37°F81%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4W4W5NE5CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW5W3NW5N4N6N6N7N6N6N9N8N4NE6NE6
1 day agoSW12
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G27
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SW6
G15
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SW5W9
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SW8SW6SW5SW4W10
G16
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W10W9W5
2 days agoCalmN3N3NE3NE4N3CalmE6E10
G14
SE9
G14
SE4E8SE8SE9CalmSE7SE3S6S9S8SW17
G28
S18
G29
SW12
G22
SW10
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.