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LHZ464 Expires:202312021045;;742864 Fzus63 Kdtx 020232 Glflh
open lake forecast for lake huron national weather service detroit/pontiac mi 932 pm est Fri dec 1 2023
for waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on lake huron
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis..Persistent northeast winds as low pressure system, 29.80 inches, slides across the southern great lakes by Saturday morning. This system will be followed by another low pressure system that takes a similar track through the central great lakes on Sunday bringing more rain and snow showers.
lhz463-464-021045- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 932 pm est Fri dec 1 2023
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain likely this evening...then rain after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots backing to the west in the late evening and overnight. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots backing to the west in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 020130 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 830 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

UPDATE

A respectable mid level fgen response has become established from southern Lake Michigan into central Michigan. The precip will be more prolonged/widespread across the Saginaw Valley. Showers and/or drizzle will remain prevalent farther south as there will continue to be decent low-mid level isentropic ascent. Boundary layer temps will continue to be cool enough to support precip type as mainly snow across Midland County and far northern Bay County. Have increased nighttime snow accums into the 1-2 range in this area. The remainder of the Saginaw valley region and northern thumb will see a rain/snow mix or melting snow with all rain expected farther south.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 308 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

DISCUSSION...

Precipitation coverage and intensity will wane late this afternoon into early this evening as initial period of FGEN forcing ebbs as the lead upper level disturbance moves east of the area. This will allow snow over parts of the Saginaw Valley into northern Thumb to switch back to a mix of snow/rain/drizzle to some degree as the precipitation rates decrease and also as a minor bubble of slightly milder air works into the area in advance of the next weaker upper level wave.

This next system will bring a renewed period of precipitation to the area later this evening into the overnight. Rain will fall I-69 south with a mix or rain/snow further north. Additional snow accumulations during the late day to overnight period over northern areas should remain subdued and generally 2 inches or less. The best potential for light accumulations in excess of an inch will be over parts of the northern Saginaw Valley where precipitation will have a better chance of remaining all snow into this evening/tonight as the lull between these to disturbances will be shortest lived (or non-existent) in this sector of the forecast area.

This active weather pattern will hold as another upper level wave ejects from the central Rockies/plains into the Great Lakes Sunday and brings widespread rainfall once again. Temperatures are once again marginal for snow, so do not expect any notable accumulations and most likely just some snow mixed with the rain over the Saginaw Valley again. Rainfall totals will be a bit lighter than today's event with one quarter of an inch of rain more common (as compared to around one half of an inch of rain that has fallen over at least the southern half of the region today).

As this next shortwave trough works through the area Sunday, the main upper level longwave trough axis will translate east into the Great Lakes/upper Mississippi to Ohio Valley in response with subsequent disturbances then digging into the area and deepening this main large scale trough over the area. This will lead to an unsettled and cool (but not particularly cold) pattern with periodic scattered rain and/or snow showers next week and temperatures in the mid/upper 30s to lower 40s at times which is really rather close to seasonal averages for early December.

MARINE...

Slow moving low pressure system will continue to gradually slide out of the Ohio Valley and across the south-central Great Lakes this evening/tonight. Result is a fairly steady state forecast through that timeframe with widespread rain showers (perhaps some snow mixing in near shore) from central Lake Huron south and modest northeasterly flow, save for Lake Erie/St Clair which are more variable with the low center passing nearby. While gusts over the Bay generally hold 25kts or less, favorable direction leads to higher wave action building through the night. As a result Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Saginaw Bay to Harbor Beach through Saturday afternoon. Low vacates the region by Saturday afternoon ending further precip chances before another developing low quickly follows for Sunday, taking a similar track as the first low. Winds turn westerly ahead of this next system though holding sub 25kts. Low exits by Sunday night setting up weakening northwesterly flow Monday.

HYDROLOGY...

While precipitation will wane somewhat late today, a second disturbance will work into the area and bring up to an additional quarter inch of rain this evening into the overnight. The rain and snow line will largely remain in place north of the I-69 corridor.
Another low pressure system will then form over the central plains and track into the region on Sunday with around one quarter of an inch of rain. No flooding concerns are expected at this time from either of this systems.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

AVIATION...

Highly variable conditions exists today with a mix VFR, MVFR, and IFR conditions with the high moisture advection ahead of an inbound low pressure system. The rain snow line has held north of Flint as expected with mbS experiencing snow at press time. A brief lull in heavier precipitation is expected later this afternoon before the center of the main low pressure moves along Michigan border by early tomorrow morning. This will usher in a more solid IFR/LIFR ceilings across all of southeast Michigan tonight. Light rain and/or drizzle can be expected for most of the night and tomorrow morning from FNT and terminals south with mbS continuing to see snowfall with a chance for some rain to mix in by tomorrow morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet today and tonight.

* High in ptype remaining as all rain today through Friday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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