Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lexington, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 4:56PM Friday December 13, 2019 8:39 PM EST (01:39 UTC) Moonrise 6:23PMMoonset 9:11AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ464 Expires:201912140915;;735278 Fzus63 Kdtx 132057 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 357 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Weak low pressure washes out over the north central great lakes into tomorrow morning. A stronger low pressure will move northeast across eastern us increasing the northwesterly pressure gradient across the lakes late Saturday into Sunday. Average pressure over the central great lakes will be around 29.50 inches during this time. High pressure, averaging 30.10 inches, moves in Sunday afternoon into Monday before a return to unsettled conditions later in the day on Tuesday. Lhz462>464-140915- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 357 pm est Fri dec 13 2019
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight...then becoming light and variable early in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet late in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the northeast late in the evening. A chance of snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots backing to the west in the late morning and early afternoon...then increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots until early morning. A chance of snow early in the morning. A chance of snow in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow until early morning. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
LHZ464


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington, MI
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location: 43.35, -82.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 132325 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 625 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

AVIATION.

Conditions through early tonight will remain defined simply by a steady stream of high based cloud cover, as skies remain clear across the lowest 5000 ft. A shallow low level moist layer will lift northward into the region during the early morning period. This in combination with a light wind field will support some degree of fog formation over the southeast Michigan airspace. Greater potential for IFR to LIFR restrictions will exist across the Detroit corridor and possibly PTK, with lack of greater moisture depth limiting fog density northward into FNT/MBS. Upstream observational trends and recent model guidance continue to suggest fog development versus stratus. This moisture may yield a very light mist or drizzle at the Detroit terminals, with surface air temperatures near the freezing mark. Gradually improving conditions during the late morning hours, perhaps offering a window for VFR conditions into the afternoon before moisture deepens again late in the day within colder west- northwest flow. Potential for periodic light snow showers Saturday night.

For DTW . Moderate likelihood for visibility to drop below 1 mile mid morning Saturday in dense fog.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Medium for cigs aob 5000 ft late tonight through Saturday afternoon.

* Medium confidence in visibilities 1/2SM or less and/or cigs of 200 ft or less.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

DISCUSSION .

Several-day period of enhanced westerlies over the eastern Pacific now culminating as a synoptic scale trough buckles along the lead edge of the jet presently surging into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A diffuse surface trough oriented along the northern segment of the trough has supported widespread low clouds and fog over the western and northern Great Lakes throughout the peak heating period. Meanwhile, the surge of warm advection occuring ahead of tonight's cyclogenesis episode over the Southeast is funneling shallow moist air/fog northward through the Ohio Valley. Light/patchy fog will overspread the area tonight as wind becomes calm within the trough and cloud bases lower coincident with nocturnal stabilization. "Areas" of fog has been added to the forecast east of the glacial ridge as this area will be located along the western periphery of light southerly theta-e advection originating over the Ohio Valley. The primary concern for the overnight period then becomes dense fog potential early Saturday morning. Any precipitation will be high- based and exceedingly light given poor forcing and dry-mid-levels. Inability for sprinkles to effectively wet-bulb the column naturally introduces a low end patchy/transient freezing drizzle type of set up for locally colder places/surfaces/etc. Given that there will be zero shear in the boundary layer, any -fzdz will be disorganized, originate exclusively from high clouds, and will not pose any issues.

As the cyclone deepens over interior New England and lifts northeast, boundary layer flow over the Lower Peninsula will respond by backing to WNW through Saturday. Increasingly well-mixed flow will support a light gust component around 20 kts while temperatures stagnate in the low 30s beneath overcast skies. Energy embedded within developing zonal flow aloft will sweep through the central Great Lakes overnight Saturday providing favorable synoptic scale support for expanding lake effect snow showers. When considered along with NAM12 depictions of convergent boundary layer flow settling into the I-94/I-96 corridors and boundary layer growth to nearly 6kft (sufficient to generate dendrites within convection), the potential exists for light lake effect accumulations but any greater potential will be limited by modest overlake theta-e lapse rates topping out around 2-3C/KM.

Forecast complexity increases considerably for early next week and confidence drops off accordingly. NWP have characteristically bounced around the location of the polar low over northern Canada, its location sensitive to the behavior of and interaction with the adjacent closed high over northern Alaska. Further complicating matters will be the cyclonic wave break resulting from the developing New England cyclone which will force additional ridging into the high latitudes and introduce further uncertainty to the large scale pattern over Canada. Since both the CMC and NCEP ensembles are demonstrating sensitivity to the relatively low amplitude development sequence as it occurs at the interface of the incoming Pacific energy and the confluent wave guide anchored over Canada both will be sensitive to this process as it unfolds. The ECMWF likewise demonstrates some uncharacteristic waffling during this period as its solution space remains sensitive to the same factors. The 12z ECMWF provides a good illustration as 400mb PV analysis reveals that subtle changes in the flow result in greater wave separation (centered over the Dakotas) occuring Monday. The more progressive northern stream then suppresses the front to the south resulting in a muted frontal snow late Monday night or Tuesday morning. Surprisingly, the UKMET resides on the opposite end of the spectrum allowing snow to develop as early as Sunday night as the front lifts toward Michigan. An outcome ranging anywhere from 1 to 5 inches, highest near the Ohio border, is plausible attm. Amounts will be highly conditional on onset time which remains the greatest source of uncertainty at this time.

MARINE .

Relatively light southerly flow tonight on the south side of a low pressure system that will weaken as it moves east of Lake Superior and washes out into southern Ontario. Broad troughing will move over the Great Lakes this weekend leading to an uptick in west to northwesterly winds ushering in arctic air. The result will over some lake instability leading to winds that gradual increase late Saturday night and early Sunday morning with gusts to around 30 knots. Winds will then decrease into Sunday afternoon as high pressure begins to build into the region. This will lead to more favorable marine conditions into early next week with light winds and low waves. Next chance at unsettled marine conditions will be Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . JVC MARINE . AA

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 27 mi40 min S 8 G 9.9 36°F 1030.1 hPa (-1.1)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 31 mi58 min S 6 G 7 36°F 1012 hPa31°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 33 mi58 min 37°F 1012 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 47 mi58 min S 8 G 9.9 36°F 33°F1012.1 hPa30°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI39 mi45 minSSE 310.00 miOvercast34°F30°F87%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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S7S9S4S5S5S3S5S4S4S5S6S7S9S6S5S6S5S4SE3SE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE5S5S7S8S8S11
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2 days agoW7W4SW6W6W6SW4SW4SW7SW7SW9
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W6W5W4W3W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.