Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lexington, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 6:39PM Monday October 21, 2019 4:25 AM EDT (08:25 UTC) Moonrise 11:45PMMoonset 2:12PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ464 Expires:201910212000;;036696 Fzus63 Kdtx 210802 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 400 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..High pressure, 30.00 inches, will advance from the eastern great lakes into quebec tonight. Low pressure will lift into the upper mississippi river valley on Monday, deepening to 29.10 inches. The low will slowly rotate into western lake superior Monday night into Tuesday as it gradually weakens. The low will lift into northern ontario by Wednesday. Lhz463-464-212000- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 400 am edt Mon oct 21 2019
.gale warning in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales becoming south 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales after midnight...then decreasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts to 35 knot gales. A chance of showers. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts to 35 knot gales until early morning. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers late in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers until afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ464


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington, MI
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location: 43.35, -82.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 210810
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
410 am edt Mon oct 21 2019

Discussion
Msas 06z analysis places a 997mb surface low over portions of NE sd.

Ontario quebec surface ridging extended southward and held strong
throughout the evening hours over much of the central great lakes.

The ridging will now break down through the 12-15z timeframe as
lower tropospheric warm advection kickstarts due to increasing
southeast gradient flow. Mixed layer depths will increase after 15z
aided by the increased pressure gradient. Interesting signal falling
out of the forecast soundings supporting highest wind gust potential
this afternoon in the tri cities northwest CWA area with greatest
pbl depths. Models suggest relatively moist flow off of lake erie in
southeast wind trajectories will be a limiting factor to mixed layer
depths in metro detroit eastern CWA areas. Largely kept to the
inherited wind gust forecast which may reside a tad high. Southeast
wind gusts of approximately 25 to 30 mph, perhaps a little higher at
mbs are expected. Lakeshore flood advisories remain in effect for
the lake huron shoreline areas in the thumb because of elevated
water levels and high wave action. As for monroe, wayne, macomb
counties... A limited fetch with southeast wind direction and notably
less in the way of geostrophic component to the wind brings more
uncertainty. For lake erie, water levels the past few days have been
running 20 to 30 inches below warning thresholds. Will forgo the
issuance of any lakeshore flood products for areas adjacent to lake
erie and lake st clair.

Preceding nocturnal low level jet cycle from the mid mississippi
river valley will surge northward into lower michigan after 18z.

Poleward advection of deep 950-500mb equivalent potential
temperature will bring a rather rapid onset to precipitation chances
this afternoon. 21.00z guidance is much more bullish on integrity of
upright frontal surface just after 18z, along with burst of system
relative isentropic ascent. Out of respect for overwhelming
consensus, increased pops into the high categorical for the 18-21z
timeframe. Really difficult to find a dry solution during that time.

Very poor lapse rates this afternoon with soundings at the front end
of the event showing high static stability in the 3.0 to 7.0 kft agl
layer. Removed thunder mention this afternoon. The big question
remains what sort of near surface lapse rates surface based
instability will exist into the early evening hours as initial cold
advection kicks in. Feel there is some pretty significant signals
that have emerged out of the 00z guidance that suggests limited
convective vigor surface based convection potential this evening. The
first is the amount of resolved precipitation activity late
afternoon early evening moving through in just about all of the hi-
resolution datasets. This rainfall will have a stabilizing effect on
the near surface thermodynamics. Href ensemble mean for SBCAPE is
showing no positive CAPE for southeast michigan. Secondly, models are
showing a significant lag with 950mb cold advection cold front
arriving after 06z. Latest thinking is that an embedded low topped
convective fine line or possibly isolated single cell convective
elements will develop along the 850-675mb cold front. This activity
is timed for southeast michigan between 01-05z. At this time, no
organized severe weather potential is expected. Steep lapse rate
development above 875mb immediately behind the fine line will result
in MUCAPE of 100 to perhaps 200 j kg. This could support a few
rumbles of thunder with isolated wind gusts of up to 45 mph.

Cold advection will overwhelm southeast michigan after 06z with an
expansive, well developed dry slot pushing across all of the area.

Will linger some pops the latter half of the night for any remnant
drizzle boundary layer shower activity, but forecast data is
impressive in amount of deep dry air advection. The degree of dry
advection and midlevel subsidence will then make it difficult for
precipitation development during the late morning and early
afternoon hours. Only real shot at pops Tuesday afternoon will
probably be after 21z as lobe of 850-650mb moisture pivots through
the far northern cwa. NAM suggests the southern CWA may see some
activity after 00z Wednesday but low confidence exists in the nams
moisture profile. The big change to the Tuesday forecast was to
increase winds during the daylight hours into the 30 to 35 mph range
with pbl growth.

Pseudo zonal flow develops by Wednesday which makes timing of
individual shortwave elements difficult. High confidence that
southeast michigan will reside on the cold cyclonic flow side. Highs
Wednesday are expected to be in the 50s with some lake effect shower
activity remaining west of the cwa. Right now, substantial shortwave
energy is expected to hold off until Wednesday night. Models are
becoming increasingly organized with low level jet forcing and fgen
response along trough axis.

Marine
Low pressure over northeast nebraska will undergo a period of
intense deepening for most of today. This will result in winds
ramping up out of the southeast and becoming strong by early this
afternoon. Sustained near-gales are forecast over northern lake
huron with widespread gusts to moderate gales anticipated over the
waters by this evening when occasional wave heights will approach 17
feet north of presque isle. The cold front will bring a chance of
thunderstorms containing locally stronger wind gusts followed by
subsiding winds veering to southwesterly. The gradient will ramp
back up during Tuesday as cold air spreads into the area behind the
front resulting in renewed gales from the southwest late Tuesday
into Tuesday night. This will likely prompt a second round of
advisories and warnings. Winds and waves gradually diminish during
Wednesday.

Hydrology
Strong low pressure will slowly shift from southeast minnesota into
central wisconsin this afternoon through tonight. As this occurs,
moisture will surge north in advance of a cold front supporting a
period of showers Monday afternoon followed by a brief window for
thunderstorms along the cold front late Monday evening. Basin-
averaged rainfall around one half of an inch are possible during the
12 hour window spanning 4 pm Mon and 4 am tues. Therefore no
flooding is expected.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1147 pm edt Sun oct 20 2019
aviation...

latest surface observations suggest the boundary layer has decoupled
enough to support some degree of light fog overnight. Increasing
high clouds and some degree of alto CU advection from the south
along with an increasing southeast gradient will limit both the
coverage and duration of any fog. These factors will also likely
erode any fog that does form prior to 12z. There has been a little
more widespread and dense fog develop across NE lower mi due to the
moisture flux off lake huron. As the low level wind fields take on a
more southeast gradient overnight, this fog should hold north of
mbs.

The onset of diurnal mixing along with a continued strengthening
southeast gradient on Monday will cause wind gusts to reach 25 to 30
knots by Mon afternoon. Rain showers will develop and increase in
coverage during the day with the approach of a strong cold front.

For dtw... With the main expectation for fog to be brief Monday
morning, the main aviation concern will be with increasing shower
chances with gusty southeast winds Monday afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 ft Monday afternoon and
night.

* low in thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.

* low in southeast wind gusts exceeding crosswind thresholds.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory from 11 am this morning to midnight edt
tonight for miz049-055-063.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt Tuesday for
lhz363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

Gale warning from 11 am this morning to 4 am edt Tuesday for lhz361-
362.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 4 am edt Tuesday
for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 4 am edt Tuesday
for lez444.

Discussion... Cb
marine... ... .Jvc
hydrology... .Jvc
aviation... ..Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 13 mi85 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 53°F 55°F1 ft1016 hPa (+0.1)
PSCM4 27 mi25 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 49°F 1033.9 hPa (-0.6)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 31 mi55 min NNE 5.1 G 5.1 52°F 1015.4 hPa51°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 33 mi55 min 51°F 1015.4 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 47 mi55 min NNW 1 G 1.9 48°F 51°F1016.3 hPa48°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI39 mi29 minN 00.25 miFog46°F42°F87%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3E3CalmCalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6S7S8S7S9S9S10S9S6CalmCalmSE5SE4E3SE4CalmCalmSE3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW7NW5N6CalmCalmE3CalmCalmNE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.