Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lexington, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:08PM Thursday February 20, 2020 1:47 PM EST (18:47 UTC) Moonrise 5:53AMMoonset 3:08PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ464 Expires:202002202115;;828452 Fzus63 Kdtx 201450 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 950 Am Est Thu Feb 20 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A broad strong high pressure system, averaging 30.80 inches, will continue its slow southeastward track across the plains into the mid-mississippi valley the remainder of this week. The central great lakes region will remain on the eastern and northern edges of the high during this time. Lhz463-464-202115- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 950 am est Thu feb 20 2020
Rest of today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain likely until early evening. A chance of rain and snow in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ464


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington, MI
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location: 43.35, -82.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 201719 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1219 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

AVIATION.

Building high pressure system with active subsidence in place will maintain dry weather through the TAF period. Dry air will continue to filter in the low levels and will maintain generally cloudless skies with the exception of mbS which will be exposed to a BKN deck of lake effect clouds later this afternoon with cigs holding around 3-4kft. Any lingering lake effect cloud cover will dissipate tonight with the gradual backing of wind direction from the northwest to southwest and loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, wind gusts have overachieved this afternoon, with isolated gusts near 20 knots seen across most TAF sites. Lingering gusts will quickly diminish after sunset, with SKC cigs and light winds expected through end of TAF period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* None

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 344 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

DISCUSSION .

Strong and expansive arctic surface high now over the northern Plains will increase its hold over the Great Lakes today while drifting slowly southeastward through the coming days. Currently at 1046mb, the pressure is forecast to very slowly weaken over the next two days down to 1033 mb as it makes its way to the Tennessee Valley where it will then encompass most of the central and eastern conus. Strong subsidence and dry northwesterly flow lead to mostly sunny skies Wednesday which will continue today. The caveat to this will be a potential period of cloud cover over the Saginaw Valley and Thumb this afternoon as a shortwave jolts the arctic trough that is draped across northern MI down through Mid MI. The thermal trough at 850mb will maxing out around -20C this afternoon before the coldest air peals off to the northeast away from the region. Strong subsidence and dry airmass, surface dewpoints in the single digits with PWATS less than a 0.1 inch should prevent any snowflakes from reaching the area. High temps will again hold in the 20s with lows tonight falling to around 10F. Winds will stay above 5mph tonight which will lead to wind chill values down to around 0F Friday morning.

Friday will be a transition day from the brief mid week cool down and the upcoming weekend warm up. As the high slides to our south, surface winds will back to the southwest allowing warmer air back into the area. Midlevel flow will become nearly westerly as a ridge folds into the region Friday morning. This will lead to a rapidly warming column with 850mb temps nearing 0C by Friday evening. High temps will respond to this, and nearly full sun, with an increase into the mid 30s. Split flow aloft and continued southwesterly low level flow will help moderate the airmass further for Saturday and Sunday as well, with high temps climbing into the 40s each day.

A southern stream wave will move off the Pacific Saturday and across the southern states through the weekend. Surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies over the southern Plains late Sunday before tracking eastward into the new week. Long range models have continued to track this system somewhere to our south, mostly in the vicinity of southern Ohio Valley, Monday through Tuesday. Northern edge of the precip shield or lead flank of the isentropic ascent could make it up into the state late Monday and Monday night. The trend has been to slow the system down so at this point expect Monday to be dry. Will be watching the next northern stream trough diving down behind it to see if it can catch up enough to pull the system more northeastward and will adjust accordingly in the coming days as needed.

MARINE .

High pressure over the SD/MN will continue to drop south-southeast across the Plains today into this weekend. The central Great Lakes region will remain on the eastern and northern edges of the high as it slides across the central part of the country. Winds will slowly rotate from northwesterly today to southwesterly by Friday. A stronger gradient will develop as a low pivots through Hudson Bay generating stronger winds Friday afternoon/evening with favorable 850mb LLJ dynamics allowing for 30-35 knot surface gusts during the evening/overnight period. Winds will begin to relax some this weekend as the low moves into northeastern Quebec weakening the gradient over the Great Lakes region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . AM DISCUSSION . DRK MARINE . KDK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 27 mi47 min NNW 8 G 14 19°F 1053.5 hPa (-0.3)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 31 mi47 min 21°F 1034.5 hPa (-0.9)1°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 33 mi47 min 27°F 1034.6 hPa (-0.9)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 47 mi47 min 19°F 33°F1035.1 hPa (-0.6)5°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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G18
SW8
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W17
G24
W19
G28

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI39 mi52 minNW 9 G 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy23°F5°F46%1035.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8
G14
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W5W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW4----NW3CalmNW4NW6NW5NW4NW5NW8NW5NW8W8
G16
1 day agoW5
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W6W7W6SW4W6W8NW11
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W3W6W5NW7
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W7NW9W5
2 days agoE6E7SE5E7E8E6E6E9E9E8E6SE11SE8SE7SE5SE6S5S7SW7SW5SW6W7
G19
W8
G23
W9
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.