Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lexington, MI

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 8:29PM Sunday August 18, 2019 3:57 AM EDT (07:57 UTC) Moonrise 9:16PMMoonset 8:23AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ464 Expires:201908182030;;815919 Fzus63 Kdtx 180731 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 331 Am Edt Sun Aug 18 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure, averaging 29.60 inches, will lift across lake superior this afternoon bringing a warm front in the early afternoon and a cold front by the evening for the central great lakes. High pressure of 30.00 inches then builds into the central great lakes region Monday into Tuesday. Lhz462>464-182030- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 331 am edt Sun aug 18 2019
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Numerous showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots late in the evening...then decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Numerous showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots until late afternoon becoming light and variable. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less in the late morning and afternoon.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the east in the late evening and early morning...then becoming light and variable after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ464


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington, MI
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location: 43.35, -82.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 180705
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
305 am edt Sun aug 18 2019

Discussion
A low-mid level moisture surge, aided by short wave impulse that
lifted across metro detroit, touched off convection overnight from
the northern detroit suburbs into portions of the saginaw valley and
thumb regions. Remnant mid level moisture advection within weak mid
level instability is likely to support a few lingering
showers thunderstorms through daybreak.

Satellite data along with latest model solutions indicate mid level
subsidence will overspread SE mi by late morning, possibly lasting
into early afternoon. This will allow for a period of daytime
destabilization. Low level south-southwest flow will also increase
during the day, supporting the advection of decent instability into
se mi. Farther upstream there is an ongoing MCS across iowa and srn
minnesota, resulting from good low level inflow ahead of robust mid
level height falls across the northern plains. Convectively induced
short wave impulses originating from this convection will traverse
the great lakes this afternoon. The approaching waves will locally
increase the mid level wind fields across SE mi during the
afternoon, supporting 0-6km bulk shear anywhere between 30 and 40
knots. Rap soundings suggest 0-1km ml CAPE of 1800 to 3000 j kg over
se mi by late afternoon with sfc temps in the mid-upper 80s and sfc
dewpoints around 70. This warm and moist boundary layer combined
with a plume of steep mid level lapse expected to lift up from the
southwest will contribute to the moderate to high daytime
instability. The unidirectional shear and potential good cape
density is suggestive of a linear convective mode with damaging
winds being the primary threat.

The expectation today is that convection will develop either late
morning or early afternoon across WRN lower mi with the approach of
the mid level short waves (mcv). Convection will then advance into
se mi during the late afternoon early evening. The severity of the
convection will have some correlation to timing. If convection works
into the area earlier than expected it will inhibit the better
instability form lifting into the area and thus severe chances will
be reduced. On the other hand, a later timing will have a higher
potential for severe wx. Given the risk, SPC has upgraded all of se
mi to a slight risk for today.

Ample low level moisture will linger across the area tonight in the
wake of daytime convection. Model soundings are suggestive of low
stratus and or fog development during the overnight and persisting
into early Mon morning. Weak sfc high pressure will expand into nrn
and cntrl lower mi on Monday within relatively zonal mid level flow.

This will support some boundary layer drying across the saginaw
valley and thumb. Remnant low level moisture and diurnal heating may
contribute to isolated to scattered shallow convection across metro
detroit south on Monday. The early day low clouds will suppress the
degree of heating to a degree, thus supporting Mon highs mainly
in the low 80s.

Mid level zonal flow will persist through Tuesday. A mid level low
across hudson bay is then forecast to drop into northern ontario on
Wednesday, driving mid level height falls across the northern great
lakes. This will also send a cold front across the southern great
lakes, providing the next good chance for convection. Cooler and
drier air will advect across the area in the wake of this front and
will hold across the area into early next weekend.

Marine
Winds will increase from the south and southwest this afternoon in
advance of an approaching low pressure system that will lift through
the northern great lakes today. Gusts to 20 knots this afternoon
will build waves up to 4 to 6 feet across central lake huron.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area
this afternoon and evening with locally higher wind and waves
expected in any thunderstorm activity - some gusts in excess of 50
knots are possible in the strongest storms. The cold front will push
through lower michigan this evening before stalling over northern
ohio tonight. High pressure will expand into the region for Monday
and Tuesday, leading to lighter wind and waves. Additional showers
and thunderstorms will continue to be possible over lake erie and
st. Clair with the frontal boundary remaining positioned nearby.

Hydrology
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening as a low pressure system tracks through the great lakes. The
air mass over the region will be characterized by dew points near 70
degrees and precipitable water values of 1.50 to 1.75 inches. This
will likely result in heavy downpours within any convective
activity. However, the convection looks to be progressive with storm
motion of about 40 mph and should only remain over one particular
area for a brief time. Basin-average rainfall totals of 0.25 to 0.75
inches look to be the most likely, though isolated higher totals
will be possible in locations that see repeated thunderstorms.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1213 am edt Sun aug 18 2019
aviation...

line of storms now working east of the TAF sites should be the end
of precipitation for the night. Could see a bring period of light
fog or stratus in it's wake early this morning. Afternoon CU field
will thicken in advance of the next trough that will swing through
in the late afternoon or early evening. Indications are for a
widespread thunderstorms to initiation and slide eastward across the
taf sites generally between 20-00z with this trough but a few
isolated storms could start as early as 18z. Storms could be strong
to severe during this time.

For dtw... There is a small chance of showers lifting northeast over
the airport early in the forecast but mostly dry conditions are
expected so will lean that way with the taf. CU field will thicken
this afternoon with a couple hours of storms expected sometime late
this afternoon, most likely 20-00z. Storms could be strong to severe
during this time.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings AOB 5k ft this morning, moderate this afternoon
and beyond.

* moderate for thunderstorms between 20z to 00z.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Sc
marine... ... .Tf
hydrology... .Tf
aviation... ..Tf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 13 mi58 min S 9.7 G 12 72°F 71°F1 ft1012.2 hPa (-0.5)
PSCM4 27 mi58 min SSW 8 G 9.9 70°F 1031.2 hPa (+0.0)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 31 mi58 min W 2.9 G 4.1 68°F 1013.1 hPa (+0.0)68°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 33 mi58 min 69°F 1012.9 hPa (+0.0)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 47 mi58 min WSW 4.1 G 6 70°F 73°F1012.9 hPa (-0.6)66°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI39 mi83 minN 02.00 miHeavy Rain70°F66°F88%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------CalmSW3CalmSW5W5W7SW6SW7SW6SW7SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W3SE3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE5E4CalmCalmSW4SW3S6S6S8S7--------------
2 days agoNE4NE3NE3E3CalmE3CalmNE4N5N6NE8NE10NE10
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.