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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 809 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.storm warning in effect from 1 am est Monday through Monday evening...
Overnight..S winds 25 to 30 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt, increasing to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft, building to 11 to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 25 to 30 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt in the evening. Seas 8 to 13 ft, subsiding to 7 to 10 ft after midnight.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ100 809 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm a significant storm approaches tonight bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds through tomorrow. Storm force winds are expected across the outer waters and penobscot bay with gales in casco bay. During the day Monday winds shift to westerly and will remain quite gusty. Fair conditions towards the latter half of the week will allow winds and seas to gradually diminish.

FXUS61 KGYX 110107 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 807 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A significant storm will overspread the area tonight through tomorrow bringing flooding rainfall, damaging winds, and periods of heavy snow across the north. Widespread 1-3 inches of rain is expected with strong southerly winds along the coast and the I95 corridor. Upslope snow showers linger into midweek as a weak cold front crosses the area before high pressure brings quieter conditions for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
805 PM Update...Made minimal changes to the forecast, and will allow for the 00Z suite to start coming in before making any more substantial changes
At this hour
cool air is well entrenched in all places except the Midcoast/Camden Hills area and southern New Hampshire. This well-reflects the cooler trend shown in hires guidance for the last several runs, owing to a coastal front closer to the coast than prior model runs. This would imply a lower overall wind threat through tonight and Monday morning... with the exception of the Midcoast especially closer toward Penobscot Bay, which still remains under the proverbial gun of a quickly accelerating LLJ coming into New England this evening. Will continue to monitor both upstream observations for wind as well as local observations for boundary layer conditions but overall no changes to hazards and headlines necessary for now.

Previously...Rain has moved into the forecast area and will continue thru most of the night. Rainfall at this time is the hazard with the highest confidence. Hi-res guidance has continued to trend up slightly with rainfall amounts today.
There is strong support now for pockets of rainfall in excess of 4 inches...with a widespread 2 to 3 inches elsewhere. With rain focusing just west of the coastal front...that has increased the flooding threat for many of the coastal river valleys
including the Presumpscot
Kennebec...and Androscoggin...as well as Saco and Swift Valleys farther inland.
Flood watch remains in effect...and despite colder and and snowier forecasts for the western ME mtns...the southern parts of the zones could still see flooding. See the Hydrology section below for more information.

Speaking of the snowfall forecast...the continued small ticks east are allowing the CT River Valley and northern mtns to remain colder and flash over to snow faster than previous forecasts. Between midnight and sunrise rain will change to snow...and very well may flash over to heavy snow as it does so.
Deep isothermal forecast soundings near freezing also support a wet clingy type of snowfall...that will mean the power outage threat is elevated from a typical snow. Downed limbs are likely
With the snowier forecast
I have expanded the winter weather advisory...but the zones have large ranges from a foot near the Canadian border...to little or no accumulation in the southern portions.

Finally there is the damaging wind threat. Eastward ticks have also kept the core of the LLJ out to sea...and really reduced the coverage and duration of the highest gusts. Wind headlines still look good north of Casco Bay...but from there southwest confidence is very low. Winds may not be that gusty at all...except for some initially gusty winds this evening before the coastal front slips offshore. For now I will keep the headlines as is...because it would not take much of a shift west to bring the strong wind gust threat back to those areas.
Along the Midcoast...forecasts remain on track to push a portion of the marine air mass inland around sunrise. Damaging winds remain a threat.

There is a small chance of thunder if the low center can develop far enough north...but with so many hazards out there I do not feel the chances are high enough include in the forecast.
Similarly I did not get too cute about fog either. WAA and high dewpoints over cold ground and snow will lead to patchy fog...but I do not expect it to be as dense as last night.

Temps will be a non-diurnal trend...mostly steady overnight.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Cold front will quickly cross the area Mon morning...bringing an end to the south wind threat. Just ahead of the cold front...the coastal front will try and push deeper onshore. This will be critical for determining how far inland damaging wind gusts can make it before being pushed east. Models continue to tick east...and keep that threat confined to near Penobscot Bay...so headlines remain unchanged. Then CAA will begin and increasing mixing depths with strong westerly winds on the backside. There could be fairly widespread gusts of 40 mph with this burst of CAA before settling back to 25 to 30 mph gusts later in the afternoon.

Rain will also continue to changing to snow on the northwest side of the low track. This will be the period when a quick flash over to heavy snow is possible into the foothills. A quick couple of inches in possible...and timed right around commute.
Will have to monitor timing for a potential expansion of winter weather advisories to cover the travel hazard. Upslope snow showers will continue into the overnight in the mtns.

Otherwise temps fall thru the day...dropping below freezing overnight. While westerly winds usually do a fair job of drying off pavement before freezing...in this case several inches of rain may be too much runoff and standing water to completely dry before becoming slick. So refreezing on roads is a possibility Mon night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A narrow ridge will crest overhead Tuesday between two upper level lows bringing clearing skies and seasonable temperatures for the day. The next upper level low moves in Wednesday bringing a cold front from the west with a return of upslope snow showers. Temperatures will be similar to Tuesday through the day before falling into the teens and 20s overnight. The second half of the week will feature high pressure settling over the Ohio River Valley before sliding to our south bringing above normal temperatures for the end of the week. With New England positioned on the outskirts of this high, some scattered showers will be possible as low pressure remains to the north with unsettled conditions dipping south into the area.
Precipitation amounts look to stay light throughout the extended period.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Short Term... The combination of low cigs and reduced vsby in RA/FG/BR will bring IFR to LIFR conditions tonight across all TAF sites. A low level jet will slide east across the area this evening into tonight and will bring a period of LLWS from KMHT to KCON and points east. Heavy rain will overspread the area this evening and will persist into Monday morning while rain changes to heavy wet snow at KHIE around 13Z and at KLEB around 15Z Monday. A front crosses the area during the day Monday bringing wind shift out of the west with these winds gusting around 25 kts Monday afternoon. Conditions improve south of the mountains Monday afternoon with mainly VFR for Monday night except at KHIE where upslope clouds and SHSN may linger through Monday night.

Long Term... Mainly VFR conditions are expected Tuesday as low pressure pulls away with westerly winds. A cold front brings scattered snow showers overnight into Wednesday with another round of SHSN restrictions. Conditions then return to VFR through the end of the week as high pressure settles to our south.

MARINE
Short Term...Southerly winds will gradually increase overnight.
Latest trends have been to push strongest winds farther out to sea...but gusts approaching storm force are still possible by midnight. The eastern most waters are the most likely to see strong winds...and headlines should be good there. However I cannot rule out the need for the waters north of Port Clyde to Stonington needing a hurricane force wind warning. There is more uncertainty for the western waters...but I have also held headlines as is there because it would not take much of a tick west to bring strong winds back. Winds shift to westerly midday Mon and will remain gusty into the overnight. At least gale conditions linger for all waters.

Long Term...Winds and seas will be gradually subsiding through early next week, however conditions look to remain above SCA thresholds through Wednesday as a cold front crosses the area.
High pressure then settles to the southwest for the end of the week with seas remaining below SCA thresholds.

HYDROLOGY
Rain will overspread the region tonight with increasing rates after midnight. The initial rain and snowmelt will serve to prime the system, then the additional rounds of heavy rainfall on Monday will trigger flash flooding and widespread small stream and river flooding. The cold and dry snowpack in the White Mountains and Mountain Region of Maine will serve to limit any rainfall runoff, however with the expectation of 1-3 inches, we can't rule out small stream responses in these areas. The snowpack from the foothills southward will melt out with this event, contributing around a half inch or more in runoff. The heaviest rainfall will occur in the overrunning zone in the S facing slopes and extend down to the coast. Latest storm track bring a swath of 3 to 5 inches from the Presumpscot to the Penobscot River valleys. Particular concern for flash flooding in these areas. The river response will be muted in main stem rivers with only minor flooding expected, with the exception of the Kennebec where moderate flooding is expected.
Significant disruptions to travel is expected Monday from all the road flooding likely to occur. One the rain transitions to snow the runoff will slow down, with the focus on the main stem rivers by Monday night. Flood warnings could continue Monday night into Tuesday if flood waters are slow to recede.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Flood Watch through Monday evening for MEZ007>009-012>014- 018>028-033.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MEZ007>009.
Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MEZ022>026.
High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MEZ027-028.
NH...Flood Watch through Monday evening for NHZ004>015.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for NHZ002-003.
Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for NHZ014.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for NHZ001.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ150>152-154.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ153.

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Cape Porpoise
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Sun -- 02:36 AM EST     1.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:49 AM EST     8.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:14 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:15 PM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:05 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:24 PM EST     8.01 feet High Tide
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Wood Island Harbor
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Sun -- 02:17 AM EST     1.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:39 AM EST     9.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:13 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:57 PM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:05 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:14 PM EST     8.10 feet High Tide
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Wood Island Harbor, Maine, Tide feet

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