Monday, February17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Washington, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:26PM Monday February 17, 2020 3:44 PM CST (21:44 UTC) Moonrise 3:29AMMoonset 12:55PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 306 Pm Cst Mon Feb 17 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Through early evening..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Rain and snow. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Tonight..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots veering south 10 to 20 knots late in the evening, then veering west after midnight veering northwest 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots early in the morning. Rain and snow through around midnight, then chance of rain and snow after midnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet late in the evening, then subsiding to 3 to 5 feet after midnight subsiding to 3 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots easing to 10 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ644 Expires:202002181000;;689619 FZUS53 KMKX 172106 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 306 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-181000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Washington, WI
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location: 43.38, -87.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 172136 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 336 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020

DISCUSSION.

This Evening and Tonight . Forecast Confidence is Low to Medium .

The guidance this morning whiffed on the northern extent of the warm layer and the result was much of southern and southwestern WI staying all snow. Amounts in the SW corner of the area ranged from 1 to 3 inches through 2pm and it's possible that as this last band of snow moves in they could pick up another inch. However, since temperatures have been at to slightly above freezing some of this snow has melted on the roads or resulted in very slushy accums. Based on radar data believe that the much awaited warm layer is finally starting to pivot north and that is evident by the higher reflectivities across Iowa.

The surface low is currently across west-central Iowa and is expected to cross along the southern portion of the area. This will bring the warmer air aloft up to about Madison during the evening hours helping to keep much of the precip as rain or a rain/snow mix but confidence in just where this does become established is low. Could easily see a situation where the warmer air stays just south and we end up with more snow in the SW corner of the area.

The latest hires guidance seems to have a better handle on the precip moving in later this evening than they did with this mornings round with the bulk of the precip focused on where the winter weather advisory is located. The forecast has some adjustments to reflect what the hires guidance is highlighting for this afternoon and evening. With snow expected to continue into the evening hours have decided to extend the Advisory for Sauk, Columbia, Green Lake, and Marquette counties until midnight. Totals could range from 3 to 6 inches across the Advisory with much of this coming in the way of slushy accumulations on the roads.

All of the guidance is in agreement in the snow and wintry mix to start to taper off around midnight as the low pressure system pulls away from the area.

Tuesday through Monday . Forecast confidence is medium to high:

Strong arctic high pressure is progged to build into the region Tuesday behind the departing low pressure system. This high will bring dry weather and below normal temperatures for Tuesday through Thursday, with temps possibly near or below zero Tue night and Wed night.

A weak shortwave is expected to move through by Friday night or early Saturday as the high moves on, with a weaker high then building in for the remainder of the weekend. Kept the forecast dry for the trough passage given limited moisture and forcing. Should see temps back around normal for Friday, warming a few more degrees into the weekend.

The GFS and ECMWF are showing the potential for a little precip in the area late weekend into early next week, though not a lot of certainty with this system quite yet.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS).

Snow has overspread southern WI with IFR to LIFR conditions occuring at the terminals. Expect these conditions to continue through the afternoon. Then a change over to more of a rain/snow mix is expected but this evening at the TAF sites but little to no change in cigs/vis will occur. Conditions don't begin to improve until after 06-09z tonight as winds shift to the NW behind the departing system. Cigs should hold around 2,000ft overnight before starting to lift to VFR conditions by Tuesday afternoon.

MARINE.

Gusty southeasterly winds continue this evening ahead of an approaching system. As the system moves across Lake Michigan expect a brief lull in wind speeds before winds switch to the NW and become gusty again. The small craft conditions will continue through Tuesday morning and then begin to taper off by the afternoon. An Arctic high will spread into the area Tuesday into Wednesday and keep winds breezy but just below small craft conditions. Winds gradually transition back to the SW by the end of the week and another period of gusty winds is expected.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ046- 047-051-052-056-057.

LM . Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for LMZ643>646.



Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Stumpf Tuesday through Monday . DDV


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 1 mi65 min SE 14 G 18 36°F 1016.9 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 26 mi35 min SE 16 G 19 34°F
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 27 mi45 min SE 20 G 23 33°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW7
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SE15
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SW6
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G16
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SW9
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G18
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G19
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G20
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G16
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G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI14 mi70 minSE 9 G 174.00 miLight Snow32°F30°F93%1014.9 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI20 mi60 minSE 11 G 162.50 miOvercast with Haze34°F26°F75%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KETB

Wind History from ETB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E3E5--SE9SE10
G14
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G15
SE10SE9SE7
G15
E10SE9
G17
SE12
1 day agoW13
G19
SW9SW8SW9SW9W7W7W7W8W7W8W8W6--W3CalmNW5NW9NW8NW4N4W6W4W5
2 days agoS8S5S6--S9
G14
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G15
S10S8S8S9S10
G16
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G16
S8S9
G15
S9S7S10
G15
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G16
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G17
SW13
G20
SW15SW14SW16
G21
SW10
G20

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.