Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Washington, WI
May 19, 2024 8:20 AM CDT (13:20 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:21 AM Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 4:30 PM Moonset 3:27 AM |
LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 705 Am Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Today - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight, then becoming south early in the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday - South wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then veering south early in the afternoon becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Rain showers likely in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight, then backing southeast early in the morning. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ600
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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 190930 AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 430 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Unsettled Monday and Tuesday with several rounds of rain/storms.
- Increased risk for strong/severe storms Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
SHORT TERM
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Today through Tuesday night:
Another warm day in store for southern Wisconsin. Temperatures will be a little cooler than the previous day with high temperatures expected to climb into the low 80s. This is in part due to some weak cold air advection behind the cold front.
However, based on guidance leaned more toward the bias corrected again to increase temps bringing 80s into more areas of southern Wisconsin than previous runs. The best chance for temps near 85 will be across far southern Wisconsin with cooler temperatures as you head north. Temperatures early this morning remain high with many urban heat islands still in the 70s. More rural areas are finally falling into the mid 60s. This is the main reason for the change of increasing beyond guidance. 925mb temperatures will be warm again near 20 and the surface temps overnight are elevated. This does leave a small window for temperatures to slightly overperform today.
Tonight into Monday the chance for rain and a few thunderstorms returns. A low pressure system will advect east from the central/northern plains. Tonight the main forcing for any rain/storms will the be the strong low level jet moving into the state. The low level jet doesn't look to make an appearance in southern Wisconsin until after midnight. As the upper level shortwave pivots into the state Monday, there will be additional chances for shower and storms. Some capping could inhibit convection initiation initially in the afternoon and early evening. There is a potential that if the shortwave moves through quickly that the evening remains mostly dry as the synoptic support will be gone. Overall the best potential for showers and storms will be late tonight through Monday morning.
There is a potential for some stronger to severe storms with the main concern being hail given the good mid level lapse rates.
Any storms that towers up quickly could provide an isolated wind threat.
Tuesday brings the next chance for rain and storms as the next upper level shortwave moves through the state. In comparison to Monday, Tuesday's system looks to be more robust. This would be the best chance for strong to severe weather out of the two days. Guidance is overall a bit of a mess with this system which leads to a more complex forecast. The GFS seems to be the biggest of the outliers with the low pressure system moving faster and further east/north than the other guidance. This has resulted in storms firing along the warm front as it progresses northward during the morning/afternoon as there will be synoptic support. In comparison, other guidance seem to be slower with the system movement. Which allows the warm front to move in and limits the amount of rain in the morning/afternoon hours, even leaving portions of the forecast area completely dry when considering ensemble guidance. This slower progression could lead to greater surface heating and instability for when the cold front moves through in the evening. The cold front will be the main driver for our severe potential. All storm modes will be possible with the main hazard concerns being winds and tornadoes. Tornadic potential at this point leans toward the short-lived quick spin up type.
Tuesday's biggest issues will be the convective potential along the warm front in the morning/early afternoon. If showers and storms start to develop early then the instability may be lacking when the cold front begins to move through in the evening leading to the severe threat being undercut.
Patterson
LONG TERM
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Wednesday through Saturday:
The cold front will be clear of southern WI by Wednesday morning, per the majority of models and ensembles. The GFS tries to delay the front through our area until later Wed and sneaks in a shortwave trough along it to bring in additional precip chances, but this is an outlier, even from most of the GFS ensemble. I kept a slight chance (20%) of showers in our north toward central WI due to the potential for strato-cu showers with any wrap-around precip from the exiting upper low. Otherwise, expect gusty westerly winds and cooler temperatures around 70.
Thursday through Saturday high temps will also be in the lower to mid 70s, with lows in the lower 50s, much more seasonal for this time of year. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive Friday afternoon or night to kick off Memorial Day Weekend. This is associated with an upper low tracking across southern Canada. As the case has been lately, the GFS goes crazy with the QPF and also brings the front through WI earlier than the ECMWF (by at least 12 hours). Given forecast model trends and biases, I would not be surprised if Friday-Fri nt ends up dry.
Regardless of having chances for showers and storms all weekend in the forecast, it looks like we will have one front with the potential for storms to deal with over this holiday weekend.
Overall, most of the weekend looks dry and just barely on the warmer side of normal.
Cronce
AVIATION
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
VFR conditions are expected through midnight tonight. Beyond midnight into Monday morning, MVFR conditions will be possible.
Partly to mostly sunny skies remain for much of the day before some clouds cover begins to work in from the northwest this evening into tonight. Northwest winds this morning will shift to the northeast continuing to easterly by this afternoon. Inland areas will have a period of light and variable winds while lakeshore ares will seamless transitions to east winds. The wind shift will be due to a combination of high pressure moving quickly overhead and the lake breeze advancing inland. A low pressure system will advance toward the state bring a chance for rain and a few thunderstorms starting tonight. Southeasterly winds and the chance for rain/storms look to hold off until after midnight. Rain chances will increase from west to east throughout the early morning hours with MVFR ceilings expected with the rain. Some MVFR visibilities will be possible with more moderate rainfall. The rain and storm potential will continue through Monday morning.
Patterson
MARINE
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
A cold front is passing over the lake early this morning, locations east of the front will continue to have southwest winds while those behind the front will have northerly winds. As high pressure moves quickly through the Great Lakes Region today, light and variable winds will be expected. Ahead of an approaching low pressure system, winds will shift to southerly and become breezy. The breezy southerly winds are expected through Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed during this time.
Patterson
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 430 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Unsettled Monday and Tuesday with several rounds of rain/storms.
- Increased risk for strong/severe storms Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
SHORT TERM
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Today through Tuesday night:
Another warm day in store for southern Wisconsin. Temperatures will be a little cooler than the previous day with high temperatures expected to climb into the low 80s. This is in part due to some weak cold air advection behind the cold front.
However, based on guidance leaned more toward the bias corrected again to increase temps bringing 80s into more areas of southern Wisconsin than previous runs. The best chance for temps near 85 will be across far southern Wisconsin with cooler temperatures as you head north. Temperatures early this morning remain high with many urban heat islands still in the 70s. More rural areas are finally falling into the mid 60s. This is the main reason for the change of increasing beyond guidance. 925mb temperatures will be warm again near 20 and the surface temps overnight are elevated. This does leave a small window for temperatures to slightly overperform today.
Tonight into Monday the chance for rain and a few thunderstorms returns. A low pressure system will advect east from the central/northern plains. Tonight the main forcing for any rain/storms will the be the strong low level jet moving into the state. The low level jet doesn't look to make an appearance in southern Wisconsin until after midnight. As the upper level shortwave pivots into the state Monday, there will be additional chances for shower and storms. Some capping could inhibit convection initiation initially in the afternoon and early evening. There is a potential that if the shortwave moves through quickly that the evening remains mostly dry as the synoptic support will be gone. Overall the best potential for showers and storms will be late tonight through Monday morning.
There is a potential for some stronger to severe storms with the main concern being hail given the good mid level lapse rates.
Any storms that towers up quickly could provide an isolated wind threat.
Tuesday brings the next chance for rain and storms as the next upper level shortwave moves through the state. In comparison to Monday, Tuesday's system looks to be more robust. This would be the best chance for strong to severe weather out of the two days. Guidance is overall a bit of a mess with this system which leads to a more complex forecast. The GFS seems to be the biggest of the outliers with the low pressure system moving faster and further east/north than the other guidance. This has resulted in storms firing along the warm front as it progresses northward during the morning/afternoon as there will be synoptic support. In comparison, other guidance seem to be slower with the system movement. Which allows the warm front to move in and limits the amount of rain in the morning/afternoon hours, even leaving portions of the forecast area completely dry when considering ensemble guidance. This slower progression could lead to greater surface heating and instability for when the cold front moves through in the evening. The cold front will be the main driver for our severe potential. All storm modes will be possible with the main hazard concerns being winds and tornadoes. Tornadic potential at this point leans toward the short-lived quick spin up type.
Tuesday's biggest issues will be the convective potential along the warm front in the morning/early afternoon. If showers and storms start to develop early then the instability may be lacking when the cold front begins to move through in the evening leading to the severe threat being undercut.
Patterson
LONG TERM
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Wednesday through Saturday:
The cold front will be clear of southern WI by Wednesday morning, per the majority of models and ensembles. The GFS tries to delay the front through our area until later Wed and sneaks in a shortwave trough along it to bring in additional precip chances, but this is an outlier, even from most of the GFS ensemble. I kept a slight chance (20%) of showers in our north toward central WI due to the potential for strato-cu showers with any wrap-around precip from the exiting upper low. Otherwise, expect gusty westerly winds and cooler temperatures around 70.
Thursday through Saturday high temps will also be in the lower to mid 70s, with lows in the lower 50s, much more seasonal for this time of year. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive Friday afternoon or night to kick off Memorial Day Weekend. This is associated with an upper low tracking across southern Canada. As the case has been lately, the GFS goes crazy with the QPF and also brings the front through WI earlier than the ECMWF (by at least 12 hours). Given forecast model trends and biases, I would not be surprised if Friday-Fri nt ends up dry.
Regardless of having chances for showers and storms all weekend in the forecast, it looks like we will have one front with the potential for storms to deal with over this holiday weekend.
Overall, most of the weekend looks dry and just barely on the warmer side of normal.
Cronce
AVIATION
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
VFR conditions are expected through midnight tonight. Beyond midnight into Monday morning, MVFR conditions will be possible.
Partly to mostly sunny skies remain for much of the day before some clouds cover begins to work in from the northwest this evening into tonight. Northwest winds this morning will shift to the northeast continuing to easterly by this afternoon. Inland areas will have a period of light and variable winds while lakeshore ares will seamless transitions to east winds. The wind shift will be due to a combination of high pressure moving quickly overhead and the lake breeze advancing inland. A low pressure system will advance toward the state bring a chance for rain and a few thunderstorms starting tonight. Southeasterly winds and the chance for rain/storms look to hold off until after midnight. Rain chances will increase from west to east throughout the early morning hours with MVFR ceilings expected with the rain. Some MVFR visibilities will be possible with more moderate rainfall. The rain and storm potential will continue through Monday morning.
Patterson
MARINE
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
A cold front is passing over the lake early this morning, locations east of the front will continue to have southwest winds while those behind the front will have northerly winds. As high pressure moves quickly through the Great Lakes Region today, light and variable winds will be expected. Ahead of an approaching low pressure system, winds will shift to southerly and become breezy. The breezy southerly winds are expected through Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed during this time.
Patterson
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI | 1 mi | 41 min | NNW 2.9G | 68°F | 30.05 | |||
| 45013 | 19 mi | 51 min | NNW 9.7G | 59°F | 51°F | 1 ft | 30.02 | |
| MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI | 26 mi | 31 min | N 9.9G | 67°F | ||||
| SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI | 27 mi | 21 min | N 14G | 64°F | 30.01 | |||
| 45218 | 28 mi | 31 min | N 7.8G | 56°F | 51°F | 1 ft | 30.02 | |
| 45199 | 48 mi | 51 min | NNW 9.7 | 55°F | 50°F | 1 ft | 30.03 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KETB WEST BEND MUNI,WI | 14 sm | 25 min | NNW 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 46°F | 55% | 30.02 | |
| KMWC LAWRENCE J TIMMERMAN,WI | 20 sm | 35 min | N 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 46°F | 52% | 30.03 |
Milwaukee, WI,
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