Sunrise 5:19 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 5:32 PM   Moonset 3:43 AM

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FXUS61 KBTV 201113 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 713 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Unseasonably warm temperatures remain on track for much of this week with near record highs in the mid 80s to around 90 expected on Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected today, but chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms exist Tuesday through Thursday, some of which could be strong to severe. Cooler and drier weather returns for Friday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 712 AM EDT Monday...The main story for today continues to be the beginning of a stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures that will last through Thursday. A mid/upper level ridge over the forecast area will provide mainly dry conditions to the region today, though an isolated shower or two can't be ruled out over the Adirondack coast and/or higher terrain of the Adirondacks this afternoon. Morning clouds over eastern Vermont and clearer skies elsewhere will give way to increasing fair weather clouds through the afternoon with mean 925mb temps around +20C supporting highs well above normal in the low/mid 80s. Winds will be light from the south-southwest generally less than 10 mph. Another quiet night follows with skies clearing through the evening, but will increase after midnight from west to east ahead of an approaching shortwave trough which will keep min temps mild in the mid 50s to low 60s.

The forecast for Tuesday continues to be very tricky in regard to the convective potential associated with the aforementioned shortwave. The feature has roots in ongoing convection this morning over the Midwest, and as it moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight, it's questionable whether it holds together, or if models are suffering from convective feedback.
The latest NAM is certainly overdone with modeled dewpoints in the upper 60s and progged SBCAPE of nearly 3000 J/kg, but there is greater consensus between other CAMs and the HRRR indicating up to around 1000 J/kg with DCAPE accounting for the majority of it. This instability seems reasonable considering max temps will once again be in the 80s and dewpoints will rise to the lower 60s. The severe threat is certainly conditional with uncertainty in the strength and track of the upper level support and potential for mid/upper level blowoff clouds from upstream convection, and SPC agrees with a new day 2 marginal risk across the area. We'll likely see some storms develop but exactly when, where, and how strong remains in question.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...Shower and thunderstorm activity wane with the loss of daytime heating. There is no air mass change so it will be a very mild and muggy night. The NWS experimental heat risk indicates rather widespread moderate heat risk for our region on Wednesday. Heat index values are expected to stay generally in the mid 80s to low 90s and therefore below Heat Advisory criteria on Wednesday. However, the lack of acclimatization given the early season heat as well as lack of nighttime cooling overnight Tuesday does suggest a somewhat heightened risk for sensitive individuals as well as those without access to effective cooling. Additionally, area waters remain cold with Lake Champlain water temperatures still around 60 degrees. The public is encouraged to exercise cold water safety and wear a life jacket if recreating on the waters.

With upper ridging building into the region and 925mb temperatures reaching +22 to +25C or 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal, have utilized the 75th percentile of model guidance to yield forecast highs in the 85 to 91F range. An embedded weak shortwave trough within the building ridge could spark a few showers and garden variety thunderstorms in the afternoon, but no severe weather is expected on Wednesday at this time. So have kept with a chance for showers (30 to 40%) and a slight chance for thunder (15 to 24%)
across our area.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...As alluded to in the short term discussion, showers and thunderstorms chances do increase heading into the Wednesday evening hours. Models are suggesting a pre-frontal trough crossing the area overnight Wednesday, with another possible round of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. The severe setup looks more favorable than on Tuesday, with ensemble-based scenarios showing CAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg, along with 35 kt shear and a southwesterly wind component helping to advect a more moist 1000-500mb moisture profile into the region. However, the timing of the surface cold front remains in question, which reduces confidence on how widespread and organized the convection could get on Thursday. Temperatures wise, best probability of low to mid 80s would be across Vermont. Behind the cold front, we do get a reprieve from the early season heat, with seasonable highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s expected on Friday and Saturday. It will also be quite refreshing with dew points in the 40s along with dry weather. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms look to arrive for the second half of Memorial Day weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR will prevail through the period.
Today will be another day of building fair weather cumulus above mountain top levels which will dissipate after sunset, and thereafter high clouds approach from the west. Winds will be SSW 5-10kts during the day, trending mainly calm tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

May 22: KBTV: 93/1977 KMPV: 90/1994 KMSS: 89/1977 KSLK: 91/1911

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 22: KBTV: 70/1911 KPBG: 65/1975 KSLK: 63/1921

May 23: KPBG: 65/1964

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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