Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 10:42 AM   Moonset 1:13 AM

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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 807 Pm Pdt Tue May 14 2024
.hazardous seas warning in effect through late Wednesday night - .
Tonight - N wind 30 kt - .easing to 20 to 25 kt late tonight. Wind waves N 9 ft at 7 seconds. SWell W 4 to 5 ft at 12 seconds. Wed - N wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves N 8 ft at 7 seconds. SWell nw 3 ft at 11 seconds. Wed night - N wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves N 8 ft at 7 seconds. SWell nw 3 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Thu - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 7 ft at 6 seconds. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Thu night - N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 5 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 4 ft at 12 seconds. Fri - N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 5 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 3 ft at 12 seconds. Fri night - N wind 20 to 25 kt - .easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 6 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 3 ft at 11 seconds. Sat - N wind 25 kt - .easing to 20 kt in the afternoon, then - . Rising to 25 kt in the evening - .easing to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 6 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 3 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 ft at 19 seconds. Sun - N wind 15 to 20 kt - .rising to 25 kt in the evening, then - .easing to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 7 ft at 7 seconds. SWell sw 2 ft at 18 seconds and W 2 ft at 14 seconds.

PZZ300 807 Pm Pdt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - A thermal trough pattern will maintain gusty north winds and very steep and hazardous seas for all areas through Wednesday night. Winds will be strongest, reaching gales, and seas will be steepest south of cape blanco and during the afternoons and evenings. North of cape blanco, expect steep to very steep seas with gusty north winds. Conditions improve some on Thursday with winds easing below gales, but gusty winds and steep to very steep seas will likely persist through the end of the week.

FXUS66 KMFR 150323 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 823 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

DISCUSSION
There are no changes to the forecast this evening.
An upper level ridge remains in place, supporting continued above average temperatures and clear daytime skies through midweek. Low pressure in Canada is expected to flatten the ridge and bring cooler temperatures at the end of the week and into next week.

Please see the previous discussion for more details about the short- and long-term forecasts. -TAD



AVIATION
15/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday evening, with a couple of exceptions. Starting around 04Z this evening, IFR ceilings are expected to return to areas north of Cape Blanco and persist into mid-morning on Wednesday. Also, patchy IFR ceilings are expected in the Umpqua Basin late tonight and could potentially affect Roseburg for a brief period early Wednesday morning (between 12z-17z). Otherwise, expect gusty winds near the coast, strongest during the afternoon and evening hours with similar strength as today during late Wednesday. /DW

MARINE
Updated 800 PM Tuesday, May 14, 2024...A thermal trough pattern will maintain gusty north winds and very steep and hazardous wind driven seas for all areas through Wednesday night. Winds will be strongest, reaching gales, and seas will be steepest south of Cape Blanco and during the afternoons and evenings. North of Cape Blanco, very steep and hazardous seas with strong winds are expected, but below gale force.

The thermal trough pattern weakens some on Thursday and gales will ease. Despite this subtle improvement, gusty winds and very steep and hazardous seas will persist through the end of the week.
Conditions may improve overall over the weekend as the upper level pattern transitions, though expect conditions to remain hazardous to small craft for areas south of Cape Blanco as northerly winds continue. /BR-y



PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 156 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024/

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Thursday
Strong high pressure aloft and at the surface is centered well off the U.S. West Coast, but will be the main player and influence on our weather for the next couple of days. Satellite imagery is showing the high clouds from this morning (and also the low clouds in the Umpqua Basin)
have largely dissipated or exited the area to the south. Bright, sunny skies can be expected area wide the rest of this afternoon.
Inland areas will be warm with highs generally 10-15 degrees F above normal.

A strong thermal trough is currently set up along the NorCal and SW Oregon coast and this is leading to gale force winds and high seas over the marine waters. On land, NNE offshore winds originating in the coast ranges, are funneling down the Chetco River valley and resulting in significant warming due to compression. As such, temperatures early this afternoon are already in the low to mid 80s in Brookings. With more of a northerly wind component, areas farther north along the coast won't get to experience this effect and will remain cooler with highs in the 60s (maybe low 70s for areas just a bit inland).
Breezy winds inland this evening will wane with the setting sun.

Expect mainly clear skies tonight, though some low clouds will develop later this evening/overnight along the coast north of Cape Blanco as north winds subside. In fact, some clouds are already showing up near Cape Arago.

Wednesday's weather will be mostly a repeat of today. Low clouds along the coast north of Cape Blanco peel back offshore during the mid-late morning; sunny skies prevail inland. Inland temperatures probably top out at least a few degrees higher than today. Another warm day is expected in Brookings as winds continue channel down the Chetco valley.

A deeper marine layer is expected to develop Wednesday night, and this should result in more cloud cover/patchy fog along the coast north of Cape Blanco. The clouds could also push into portions of the Coquille Valley and the Umpqua Basin. -Spilde

LONG TERM...Thursday May 16th - Tuesday May 21st...The upper level ridge that lead to the warm temperatures earlier in the week will start to flatten as a trough moves down the British Columbia coast.
This will help push a thermal trough (heat low) from along the southern OR/NorCal coast inland. Typically, this leads to the warmest temperatures of a stretch inland while coastal areas, especially Brookings, cool off.

The trough then slides over the northwest U.S. Friday. Any precipitation associated with this looks to remain well to our north, so dry weather will continue in the region, but the resulting cooler, northwesterly flow will result in temperatures dropping (by more than 10 degrees in some areas) Friday afternoon compared to Thursday. Breezy northwest winds at the surface will pick up in the late afternoon into the evening, but not anything overly gusty.

While dry weather continues through the weekend, temperatures will cool each day under continued northwesterly flow as another shortwave trough starts to slide down from the northwest. This will gradually dig far enough south by Monday that about 10-15% of members of the National Blend of Models indicate some precipitation is possible in northern Douglas and Klamath counties. Another shortwave Tuesday will bring these chances further south and east, though model differences in the strength and timing of this system are numerous at this range. -CSP

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 AM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.

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Reedsport
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Tue -- 12:48 AM PDT     2.83 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:17 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:51 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:07 AM PDT     5.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:44 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:36 PM PDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:34 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:42 PM PDT     4.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Gardiner
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Tue -- 12:33 AM PDT     2.83 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:17 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:51 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:52 AM PDT     5.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:44 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:21 PM PDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:27 PM PDT     4.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:34 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

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