Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hilton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:53PM Thursday July 9, 2020 3:08 AM EDT (07:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:56PMMoonset 9:05AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 720 Pm Edt Wed Jul 8 2020
Tonight..South winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to less than 10 knots. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest less than 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 57 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202007090315;;539923 FZUS51 KBUF 082320 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 720 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-090315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hilton, NY
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location: 43.41, -77.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 090620 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 220 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. Oppressive heat will be found across the majority of the region through Friday with apparent temperatures near 100F across the lake plains. While showers and storms will be few and far between during that time, they will become more widespread Friday through Saturday as a weak cool front slowly works into the region. Temperatures will be a little lower this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Another very warm night occuring with temps in the 70s on the Lake Plains and mid/upper 60s across the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Patchy fog may again be possible in the valleys of the Southern Tier after 08Z.

The big story today will yet again be the oppressive heat with highs climbing a few degrees with low/mid 90s and heat indices in the 95F- 100F range. All Heat Advisories remain in place with the addition of Wyoming and Chautauqua county to the list. Otherwise, today should be the hottest day of this week with the upper ridge axis cresting across the eastern Great Lakes providing a largely dry day for most locations. Although, still can't rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm across the Southern Tier. However, with ridge overhead and a mid level cap present it should limit most activity. Any storms that do form will have the potential to produce very localized heavy rainfall as flow through the column remains very weak.

Tonight, mild and humid conditions will continue with lows in the mid 70s across the Lake Plains with upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere.

Friday, again another hot and humid day will be on tap. The only change will be an increase in showers and thunderstorm coverage as the ridge axis shifts east and upstream trough approaches the Lower Lakes. Otherwise, highs will once again topple the 90F degree mark for many locations with heat indices in the 95F-100F range.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Heat advisories remain in effect for oppressive heat the next two days across the lower elevations (ie. lake plains). Apparent temps of 95 to 100 Thurs and Fri afternoons for elevations below 1000 ft (excluding immediate lake shores). Lows for same areas only in the 70s.

Semblance of Rex block with +20c H85 air to support the unusually long stretch of high heat Unfortunately. showers and storms few and far between. Greatest chances across Srn Tier.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. An upper level shortwave will cross the region Saturday, providing both relief from the dangerous heat, but also bring much needed rainfall. Greatest instability of 500 to 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE will expand northward from Central PA ahead of the upper level trough. These showers and thunderstorms Saturday will end Saturday night as the upper level supporting shortwave drifts eastward towards New England. Flat ridging aloft Sunday will allow for just a spot shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon heating. Another shortwave, lower in amplitude will cross our region Monday. This shortwave will be reaching WNY early in the day, and the greatest chances for thunder will again be across eastern zones where additional daytime instability will occur.

Tuesday and Wednesday will become dry again behind the upper level shortwave, and increase in warmth as yet another plume of very warm air from the Plains begins to push eastward towards our region. Highs in the mid 80s Tuesday, will likely become lower 90s for the lake plain Wednesday.

Looking just outside of the scope of this forecast period at the second half of the week . there are deterministic models (ECMWF) that are strongly suggesting the presence of a 600dm ridge that could be centered just to our south. This is also being advertised by the NAEFS If this were to come to pass. then H85 temps of 21-23c would overspread the Lower Great Lakes. This would set the stage for ANOTHER heat wave . one that would shadow the current heat spell In other words. a more significant heat event.

Supporting another heat wave are temperature forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The Day 8-14 U.S. Hazards Outlook map includes the Great Lakes region in an area for EXCESSIVE heat during the July 15-21 period . and the corresponding 8-14 temp outlook has a 80 percent bullseye for above normal temps over the region.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. VFR conditions with generally light winds expected rest of tonight. There could be a few hours late tonight where fog could lower VSBYs to MVFR levels . especially in the valleys of the Southern Tier where the fog could become deep enough to impact the KJHW site with MVFR to IFR conditions between 08 and 12z.

While there will be a smattering of showers and thunderstorms across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region on Thursday afternoon . most of the area will be rain free.

Outlook .

Friday . Mainly VFR. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly inland from the lakes with local/brief flight restrictions. Late night/early morning Southern Tier Valley fog with local IFR. Saturday . VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Sunday . Mainly VFR with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Monday . VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.

MARINE. Relatively light winds will continue on both Lakes Erie and Ontario through the rest of the week with a weak pressure gradient in place. Winds will generally be under 12 knots and waves under 2 feet. Strong differential heating will allow for local lake breezes to develop most afternoons with onshore wind developing.

CLIMATE. An extended period of heat will continue across our region through Friday, July 10th. Some daily records will be within reach for our 3 primary climate stations. Also, the longest streak of 90-degree days in Buffalo may be in jeopardy. Here are the current record maximums, and warm minimums .

Thursday July 9th Record Highs

Buffalo . 92F 1988 Rochester . 102F 1936 Watertown . 92F 1955

Thursday July 9th Record Warm Minimums

Buffalo . 76F 1897 Rochester . 81F 1936 Watertown . 73F 1955

.

Friday July 10th Record Highs

Buffalo . 95F 1988 Rochester . 102F 1936 Watertown . 92F 2007

Friday July 10th Record Warm Minimums

Buffalo . 76F 1897 Rochester . 79F 1936 Watertown . 73F 2013


Consecutive 90+ Degree Days in Buffalo (Ending Date) 1) 7/10/1988 - 7 2) 7/ 8/2020 - 6 (ongoing) 3) 7/ 1/1963 - 5 -) 8/14/1947 - 5

Consecutive 90+ Degree Days in Rochester (Ending Date)

1) 9/ 5/1973 - 9 2) 8/ 6/1955 - 8 -) 8/16/1944 - 8 4) 8/11/1900 - 7 5) 7/ 5/2018 - 6 -) 7/10/1988 - 6 -) 7/20/1977 - 6 -) 7/13/1936 - 6 -) 6/ 7/1925 - 6 -) 7/ 8/1921 - 6

Consecutive 90+ Degree Days in Watertown (Ending Date)

1) 8/ 3/1955 - 6 2) 8/ 5/1988 - 4 -) 9/ 5/1973 - 4 4) 7/ 7/1975 - 3 . 10)7/ 7/2020 - 2

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ007. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ001>006-010-011-013- 014. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . AR/RSH NEAR TERM . AR SHORT TERM . AR/RSH LONG TERM . Thomas AVIATION . AR/JLA/RSH MARINE . AR CLIMATE . Apffel/JLA/RSH/Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 10 mi50 min 75°F 1012.7 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 11 mi68 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 78°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 20 mi148 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 76°F 73°F1012.6 hPa74°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 56 mi68 min SSW 4.1 G 7 77°F 1012.9 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY20 mi74 minSW 410.00 miFair73°F70°F90%1013.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW7SW6W6SW6W5W45CalmN6S105Calm5S5SW6SW5SW3CalmCalmSW4CalmSW4SW3
1 day agoW5SW5S3SW3SW6SW6SW74S5N5CalmNW6NE9NE8S4CalmCalmCalmW3SW11SW14SW9SW6SW7
2 days agoSW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4S5SE8E5NE11NE13NE12NE10E11E8E7E6CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.