Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hilton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 5:08PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 8:35 AM EST (13:35 UTC) Moonrise 4:52AMMoonset 2:14PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 649 Am Est Tue Jan 21 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through Wednesday morning...
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Scattered snow showers. Numerous snow showers late. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Scattered snow showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of snow and rain showers Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Rain and snow likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 37 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202001211615;;288295 FZUS51 KBUF 211149 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 649 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-211615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hilton, NY
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location: 43.41, -77.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 211215 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 715 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold northwest flow will continue to produce light lake effect snow showers at times today southeast of the lakes with minimal additional accumulation. High pressure will move into the region providing a period of quiet weather and a gradual warming trend Wednesday through Friday. Low pressure will then move into the eastern Great Lakes this weekend, bringing a return to unsettled weather.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Cold northwest flow prevails this morning as an expansive area of high pressure drops slowly south into the Midwest and Corn Belt. Despite drying profiles and lowering inversion heights, inversion top temperatures right in the dendritic growth zone and continues to produce plenty of lake clouds and light snow showers and flurries across much western New York this morning, with the Canadian GEM and satellite trends suggesting a weak upstream connection to Lake Huron. The flurries and light snow showers will remain fairly widespread through mid morning before starting to fade away. Expect nothing more than a light dusting of accumulation this morning.

High pressure will continue its slow movement to the east today, reaching the Ohio valley by this afternoon. Backing flow on the northern periphery will bring the beginning stages of warm air advection aloft this afternoon. This will further weaken lingering snow shower activity and expect the activity across western New York to end this afternoon. Inversion heights remain a little higher off Lake Ontario, which may allow a few snow showers to redevelop southeast of Lake Ontario and with the backing flow any activity that does redevelop will be carried northward towards the Tug Hill region during the afternoon through early tonight. Additional snow accumulations will be very minor and less than an inch. Moisture east of Lake Ontario may become too shallow tonight, which could result in a bit of freezing drizzle, but chances of this occurring appear to be on the low side.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Ridging will maintain dry weather as it moves east across the region through the mid week period. A gradual warming trend is expected as a southerly flow sends highs from the lower to mid 30s Wednesday into the upper 30s to lower 40s by Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Quiet weather will continue for most of Friday as an area of high pressure over the Northeast and Eastern Canada slowly moves east. An approaching area of low pressure from the Tennessee Valley will start to increase POPs for Friday evening, with chance POPs across WNY. The area of low pressure will continue to track northeast toward the area and center over the western end of Lake Erie by Saturday morning. The low will slowly track east before a secondary and stronger area of low pressure develops Saturday evening off the coast of NY/NJ. The coastal low will continue to strengthen as it tracks northeast to the Gulf of Maine by Sunday night.

Likely POPs will be in place from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. A heavy water laden snow looks likely now, but temperatures will need to be monitored as any bump up in the temperatures will mean more rain likely. Some rain will mix in for Saturday afternoon across the lower elevations, but pure rain areas as of right now looks to be limited as model guidance continues to come in a bit cooler. Wrap around moisture will keep precipitation going through Sunday night before tapering off on Monday to showery coverage.

Temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s on Friday, and in the mid 30s for Saturday and Sunday. Overall in the long term temperatures don't look to cool off much with temps aloft at 850 hPa staying mostly above -10C through most of next week, and if temps do drop to near -10C it looks to be brief. Even beyond this period, some models continue to lack cold temps anywhere, with the Euro lacking any 0C 850H readings late next week until you go all the way up to the Hudson Bay, but that being said, it is 10 days out.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Lake effect clouds will continue this morning with bases higher MVFR to lower VFR (2500-3500 ft AGL). Scattered light snow showers will continue at KIAG, KBUF, and KJHW this morning, but visibilities should generally remain at or above 5SM.

Light snow showers across western New York will gradually end during the day today, although MVFR CIGS may linger east and southeast of the lake. Lake effect snow showers and MVFR CIGS southeast of Lake Ontario will move to the east end of the lake later in the afternoon as winds become WSW. Some of this may move into KART toward evening.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Friday . Generally VFR. Saturday . MVFR/IFR possible with rain and wet snow.

MARINE. Surface high pressure across the Midwest will gradually settle over the Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight which will allow a moderate pressure gradient to develop across the lower Great lakes. The resulting pressure gradient will allow light northwesterlies this morning to back southwest and freshen, with small craft conditons developing later this afternoon and tonight on the nearshore waters of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. These conditions may linger into Wednesday.

High pressure will build north with quieter marine conditions developing later Wednesday and likely lasting through Friday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042>044. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/TMA NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/TMA SHORT TERM . TMA LONG TERM . SW AVIATION . Hitchcock/JLA/TMA MARINE . TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 10 mi53 min 17°F 1032.3 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 11 mi35 min WSW 6 G 8 19°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 56 mi35 min S 4.1 G 5.1 22°F 1033.9 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N9
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G34
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G24
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NE12
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G26
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G31
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G23
S9
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W16
G25
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G41
W24
G34
W27
G36
W23
G32
NW27
G57

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY20 mi41 minWSW 58.00 miMostly Cloudy9°F7°F92%1034 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5W5N8NW6NW4NW10NW9W11W7W5W6SW5SW7SW8W6W9NW7W5W4W5W5W5W5SW5
1 day agoW21
G34
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G27
W15
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W10NW11NW16NW13
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NW12NW8NW6NW9NW9NW8NW8N7N7N9NW6W5NW6W5W4
2 days agoSE11SE11SE9SE9SE9S9S11S11S9S15
G20
S9--SW14W18
G32
W16
G23
W23
G31
W14W15W17
G25
W13
G19
W15
G24
W15
G22
W13
G28
W15
G26

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.