Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hilton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 4:36PM Saturday December 7, 2019 6:45 PM EST (23:45 UTC) Moonrise 2:25PMMoonset 2:29AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1236 Pm Est Sat Dec 7 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm est...
This afternoon..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Scattered flurries. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Rain and snow showers likely during the day, then lake effect snow showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 41 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201912072215;;997716 FZUS51 KBUF 071736 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1236 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-072215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hilton, NY
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location: 43.41, -77.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 072214 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 514 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build across the eastern Great Lakes tonight before moving off the southern New England coast on Sunday. This will provide mainly dry weather for the remainder of the weekend. Low pressure will track across the central Great Lakes late Monday with above normal temperatures and showers for the start of the work week, followed by colder weather and lake effect snow showers for mid week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. A ridge of high pressure extends from Ohio into the eastern Great Lakes at the surface, while the eastern edge of an upper ridge centered over the Upper Great Lakes has now moved over NYS. This has has helped to squelch any lingering snow showers east of Lake Ontario, with dry weather now found across the entire forecast area. Likewise, northwest flow lake effect clouds will continue to gradually erode southeast of the lakes through the evening.

High pressure will drift to the southern New England coast tonight. Increasing warm advection in the wake of the departing high will bring an increase in high clouds overnight. Lows will occur during the mid to late evening, with 20s across Western NY and teens from the Genesee Valley eastward, and even some single digits east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures will then rise overnight as a southerly breeze and warm advection increase.

High pressure will continue to move east and off the southern New England coast Sunday. Ongoing warm advection will continue to support thickening mid/high clouds, but any rain showers associated with the next system will remain well to our northwest through early evening with dry conditions prevailing in the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures will warm to above average, with highs in the mid 40s across Western NY and mid to upper 30s east of Lake Ontario.

A weak surface trough of low pressure across the central Great Lakes Sunday evening will gradually move eastward towards our region Sunday night. An increasing southwesterly mid-level flow will provide a broad area of weak mid level warm air advection. Chances for showers will increase late Sunday night. The southerly flow will prevent temperatures from dropping below freezing at most locations, but there is a chance for below freezing temperatures and a brief snow or sleet mix across the North Country with thermal profiles showing a mid-level warm layer of around +1c. Otherwise, lows will range from the lower 40s across the lake plains west of Rochester with mid to upper 30s at most other locations. Rainfall amounts and any snow accumulation will be minimal.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Shortwave trough over the upper Midwest tracks east and into the upper Great Lakes on Monday. Deep southerly flow ahead of this feature will transport copious amounts of Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture northward across the region. This combined with a +40 knot LLJ and positioned within the favorable entrance region of the upper level jet will provide the lift for widespread rainfall to occur on Monday. Still looking at rainfall amounts across area basins of 0.30- 0.75 of an inch, with localized higher amounts. Otherwise, it will be a mild day Monday with high temperatures getting into the upper 40s to lower 50s at most locations.

Low pressure will be just to our northwest by Monday evening and then will track off into Quebec Monday night. As it heads off into Quebec, it will send a strong cold front towards the Lower Lakes. It appears at this point, that the cold front won't arrive across far western New York until just before daybreak on Tuesday. Also, widespread rainfall ahead of the front will gradually diminish overnight as the main forcing shifts to out east. Temperatures overnight will be low 40s just before daybreak, then drop quickly behind the front on Tuesday.

. ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON .

MUCH colder air will rapidly filter in as cold air advection ramps across the Lower Lakes. This will likely spin up the lake effect snows off both lakes beginning Tuesday afternoon and continue through Wednesday night Now for the details.

Arctic air mass will rapidly spill in behind a strong cold front on Tuesday. While the air mass will definitely be cold enough to provide the necessary over lake instability (H850T -12 to -13C), there are some parameters that won't be favorable for a MAJOR event. First and foremost, residence time of the lake effect bands off Lake Erie and Ontario will be limited at any one location. Right now it appears the bands will be moving around quite a bit which will limit snowfall accumulations. Next, guidance has been fairly persistent showing a fairly dry air mass behind the front and this system lacks that deep synoptic moisture to maximize snowfall. Now this isn't to say there won't be some decent accumulations, especially east of Lake Ontario where upstream connections will come into play. It also can be said that this might be some of the coldest air so far that we've seen this season. A second re-enforcing shot of Arctic air on Wednesday will send H850T down to -18C/-20C, with an associated shortwave providing some moisture which will enhance ongoing lake snows. Otherwise, there still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with this event, especially in terms of specific band placement and timing. Stay tuned as things could change.

In terms of temperatures, highs on Tuesday will actually occur just after midnight. Daytime temperatures will fall into the 30s behind the front. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper teens to low 20s by daybreak on Wednesday. Wednesday, highs will average 10-15F below normal with temperatures peaking in the low to mid 20s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Lake effect snows will still be ongoing Wednesday night with additional accumulations possible off both lakes. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over Tennessee and Ohio will begin building into the Lower Lakes as we head into Thursday. Winds will begin the gradual shift from west-northwesterly Thursday morning, to more southwesterly by late in the day Thursday. Although this will signal the beginning of the warm advection process, it will be a slow one. Temps aloft will still be plenty cold enough to support a lake response, though will be quite muted when compared to the previous as shear and continued drier air (lowering cap) come into play as well. Will most likely see the typical south to north 'sweep' of the lake bands as winds slowly back from west-northwest to southwest Thursday into Thursday evening. Any lingering snow showers northeast of the lakes potentially end Thursday night as surface high pressure moves overhead and progressively warmer air pushes in aloft. By Friday morning the surface high will have exited off to our northeast and positioned just off the coast of New England. There remains quiet a bit of uncertain regarding the Friday to Saturday time frame. Per latest guidance, the GFS is quiet a bit faster with the development of a coastal low along the Mid-Atlantic and further west with the upstream system. ECMWF is slower and holds off any potential precipitation until Saturday. Have kept low end chance POPs for now with so much uncertainty.

AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. All terminals in western and north central NY are now seeing VFR flight conditions as ceilings have either lifted or scattered out. High pressure across the area will move to the southern New England coast with widespread VFR flight conditions found across the region tonight. Ongoing warm air advection will support increasing mid and high level clouds during the day Sunday. Also, a modest LLJ of 40-50 knots will result in a period of LLWS across western New York Sunday morning before later in the day when these winds mix to the surface more effectively.

Outlook .

Sunday night . VFR/MVFR. Showers likely, possibly mixed with sleet or snow across the North Country. Monday . Areas of MVFR in rain. Tuesday . MVFR with rain showers ending from west to east. Snow showers possible late. Wednesday . IFR within lake effect snow east of the lakes. Thursday . VFR with localized IFR in lake effect snow showers east of the lakes.

MARINE. Winds have diminished across Lake Ontario with high pressure building into the eastern Great Lakes. A short period of lighter winds is expected tonight, but SSW winds will quickly increase on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario by early Sunday morning. Small Craft headlines are in effect for eastern Lake Ontario for the southerly flow late tonight through early Monday, and these may need to be extended to Lake Erie although it's a bit more marginal.

A windy period of weather will then continue through much of the week as a strong cold front crosses the area Tuesday, followed by moderate westerlies Tuesday night through Thursday night.

HYDROLOGY. A period of warmer temperatures will cause snow melt which will add to run-off from rain on Monday and Tuesday. For most basins, rainfall amounts and the amount of snow pack in place is limited resulting in little risk for flooding.

There is a bit more snow pack in place in the Black River basin, with Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) values in the 1-2 inch range. Model guidance shows a bit more QPF here, with some models in the 1-2 range across favorable upslope regions. This supports a low risk for flooding in the Black River basin, but there are several limiting factors which is probably why MMEFS ensembles (SREF/GEFS/NAEFS) are not showing much of a risk for flooding with rises to about action stage a much more likely outcome. It appears that the higher rainfall amounts will be localized to upslope regions and not represent basin averages. Also, temperatures are not likely to get warm enough to melt all of the snow pack in place, and rainfall rates will be modest. The situation bears watching, but no flood headlines are anticipated in our forecast area unless some of these limiting factors change.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/JM NEAR TERM . Apffel/Hitchcock/JM SHORT TERM . AR/TMA LONG TERM . AR/TMA AVIATION . Apffel/JM MARINE . Apffel/Hitchcock/JM HYDROLOGY . Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 10 mi51 min 22°F 1031 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 11 mi45 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 27°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 56 mi45 min S 2.9 G 4.1 29°F 1032.2 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY20 mi51 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy26°F18°F71%1032 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8W6W4W8W4W6W10W8W7W6W5W7W5W4W4NW5NW8NW6NW10N8N7N3CalmCalm
1 day agoW6W5W8SW4W5W5W4SW4SW4S5S5S6S4SE3SE3S3CalmN5N10N13N9NW8W8NW7
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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