Hilton, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hilton, NY

April 12, 2024 4:18 PM EDT (20:18 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM
Moonrise 7:39 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1102 Am Edt Fri Apr 12 2024

.gale warning in effect from 11 pm edt this evening through Saturday evening - .

Rest of today - Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Periods of rain late this morning, then showers likely early this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.

Tonight - Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west and increasing to 40 knot gales overnight. Showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.

Saturday - West gales to 40 knots. Rain showers. Waves 12 to 17 feet. Waves occasionally around 22 feet.

Saturday night - West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 10 to 14 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.

Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.

Monday - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hilton, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 246 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Deep low pressure will continue to progress northward into Quebec tonight and Saturday. Periods of rain will continue to produce a soaking rainfall this afternoon into tonight. Cold air arriving tonight will change rain to wet snow, with some slushy accumulations possible across the higher terrain tonight and Saturday morning.
Additionally, windy conditions will prevail into Saturday afternoon.
Expect some dry time Saturday night before the next clipper system brings rain back into the region Sunday.

A very large and dynamic low pressure system over the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon will continue to gradually broaden into deep longwave trough over the eastern CONUS through Saturday. As it does so, its 985mb surface low centered north of the forecast area this afternoon will continue to slide northeast further into Quebec tonight. It's associated cold frontal boundary now across the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon will continue to exit east tonight. The aforementioned trough will then translate east of the region tonight, with a cooler airmass accompanying a secondary cold front to cross the region tonight into Saturday.

With this overall pattern there are a few items of concern. Starting off with the precipitation, the first batch of rainfall associated with the initial cold front will finish exiting the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon. Meanwhile, the next area of rainfall associated with the secondary cold front has begun to filter into far western New York. As the night progresses, and an area of colder air advects into the region, rain will switch over to wet snow, especially over the higher terrain of the Southern Tier. Snowfall accumulations will be terrain dependent with accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible across the interior areas away from Lake Erie of the Southern Tier of Southern Erie, Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties. This being said, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 11PM tonight through 2 PM Saturday.

A switch over to snow will also occur across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario with some accumulating snow tonight through Saturday, however due to the later arrival of the cold air to the eastern half of the area giving a shorter window for cold air to remain across the area, don't expect accumulations to become impactful.

Snow will then change back over to rain Saturday shortly after sunrises and continue to pull east out of the area throughout Saturday afternoon. This will support the start of a short dry period Saturday evening.

Additionally under the cold air advection regime, breezy southwest winds will continue this afternoon into this evening creating gusts between 45 to 50 mph northeast of Lake Erie impacting Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee and Chautauqua counties. In the wake of the secondary cold front, winds will shift westerly tonight and continue to ramp up across WNY and the Genesee Valley. Winds again will gust up into the 45 to 50 mph range tonight through Saturday morning.
This all being said, a Wind Advisory remains in effect across far WNY (Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, and Chautauqua counties)
through 2 PM Saturday, a Wind Advisory is also in effect from 11 PM tonight through 2 PM Saturday for Monroe, Wayne, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties.

The mid-level trough finally exits east of the region Saturday night and then is briefly replaced by ridging aloft. This should wrap up any remaining precipitation lingering across the forecast area as we head into Sunday but the break will be short-lived.

A shortwave trough and compact area of low pressure is advertised to drop across western and northcentral NY on Sunday. This will bring another shot of rain to the region to finish out the weekend. We even could see a few rumbles of thunder within the warm sector and also with the cold frontal passage. This would mainly be focused across western New York (Finger Lakes region and points west) and closer to the NY/PA line. This is where models continue to advertise roughly 300-600 J/kg of CAPE
In terms of rainfall amounts
basin averages will range between 0.25"-0.50" with very localized higher amounts given any thunderstorm. There will also be quite the dichotomy in high temperatures found across the region. Highs east of Lake Ontario will 'likely' struggle to make it out of the 40s, with a much warmer airmass found across the Finger Lakes region and western New York with 50s to low 60s.

Drier weather returns Sunday night as high pressure builds into the region behind this lastest system. Dry weather will continue Monday and we should see a gradual day to day warming trend with highs climbing into the 60s.

The medium range guidance packages have been trending slower with the large cutter-type low forecast to track northeastward from the central Plains in the Tuesday-Wednesday period...with the latest consensus suggesting that this system will reach the Upper Great Lakes by later Wednesday afternoon and evening. Owing to this slower progression
the bulk of Tuesday now looks to be dry
with just an outside chance of a couple showers reaching far southwestern New York later in the day. Better chances for some showers should then overspread the area from west to east Tuesday night and especially Wednesday as this system pushes one or more warm frontal segments across our region...with some limited instability potentially also allowing for a few thunderstorms across portions of the area south of Lake Ontario Wednesday afternoon. Have generally upped PoPs into the likely range as we push through the day Wednesday...though have undercut NBM probabilities somewhat given the above mentioned slowing trend in the guidance...which if continued would result in the precip arriving even more slowly than currently forecast.

After that time disagreement amongst the medium range packages increases rather sharply for the Thursday-Friday period...resulting in a correspondingly sharp increase in forecast uncertainty and decrease in forecast confidence. In general the initial cutter low should lift by to our north and weaken...though the guidance disagrees on the path of the low and how quickly all this occurs...
as well as on the degree/location/timing of any secondary cyclogenesis that takes place along its trailing cold front. As a result the guidance envelope suggests a cold frontal timing for our area that ranges anywhere from later Wednesday night/Thursday morning on the fast end to Friday on the slow end...a difference of 24-36 hours
Given this degree of uncertainty
will need to keep precip chances in place through both Thursday and Friday...while also keeping these confined to the chance range.

With respect to temperatures...highs on Tuesday look to be a bit cooler than previously forecast given the slower approach of the cutter low...however these should still average out solidly above normal. Warm advection associated with the low will then help to pump readings up to unseasonably warm levels in the mid 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday. After that time a general downward trend in temps is expected through the end of the work week...though the speed of this will be heavily dependent upon the timing of the cold front/ secondary surface low. For now have just pulled temps back a bit for Thursday given the amount of forecast uncertainty...before dropping these back further into the 50s by Friday.

A deepening low pressure system sliding just northwest of the region across the central Great Lakes will send another round of rain showers, and some wet snow this evening through Saturday, resulting in highly variable flight conditions through the 18Z TAF cycle.

Currently a break in the bulk of rain showers across the vast majority of NYS, with TAF sites ranging from VFR to IFR. As the afternoon progresses, conditions will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR as rain showers re-enter the forecast area from west to east.
Additionally tonight, as temperatures cool after sunset, expect rain to switchover to snow across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region.

Rain and wet snow showers will gradually end from west to east Saturday, with all rain by Saturday afternoon. Expect flight conditions to improve gradually to VFR from west to east as the showers exit the region.

Outside of the precipitation, expect windy conditions to continue this afternoon into Saturday afternoon. Initially southwest winds gusting 40-50 knots across far WNY will shift westerly and spread into the Genesee Valley.


Saturday Night...MVFR improving to VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers late.
Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely.

A strengthening low pressure system cutting to our northwest will send two cold fronts through the region. The first has moved east of the lakes early this afternoon, causing southwest winds to quickly ramp up on the lakes from west to east. The second cold front will arrive later this evening and cause winds to shift to the west.

These fronts are expected to cause gale force winds on both lakes, first across Lake Erie into Saturday morning, then across Lake Ontario tonight through Saturday night. Small Craft Advisories precede the Gale Warnings across the western and eastern ends of Lake Ontario.

A more substantiative calming of the winds and waves will arrive by Sunday as surface high pressure crests over the region.

NY...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ001-002-010-011- 019-085.
Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ003-004-012>014-020-021.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ020.
Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042-045.
Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ042-062.
Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ043>045-063>065.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 10 mi49 min 52°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 11 mi79 min WSW 17G31 52°F 29.24

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KROC GREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY 20 sm24 minWSW 21G4210 smOvercast52°F41°F67%29.22
Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   

Buffalo, NY,

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