Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Minetto, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Lake effect snow off of Lake Erie has been nondescript for the past several hours, with just a few areas of light snow left east of the lake as inversion heights lower, and shear increases. All Lake Effect Snow Warnings have been cancelled east of Lake Erie. East of Lake Ontario, a fairly healthy band of snow continues across central and northern Oswego County and far southern Lewis County this morning. The band of snow is becoming more broad with time, a sign that shear is increasing and a weakening trend will likely begin soon. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect east of Lake Ontario, both for the ongoing lake effect snow, and the incoming synoptic snow tonight.

During the course of today the axis of surface-based ridging will slide from New York State into New England...before quickly pushing out to sea tonight
At the same time
low pressure will deepen some as it tracks southeastward from Manitoba to Lake Superior today...
then to the Ottawa Valley tonight
In the process
this latter feature will push its attendant warm frontal zone across Lake Ontario and northern New York late today and tonight.

In between the departing ridge and approaching low...the low level wind field will back and become increasingly sheared. Coupled with the overall warm air advection pattern which will result in lowering inversion heights...this will result in ongoing lake effect snows east of the lakes lifting northward across the Niagara Frontier and North Country...while also tending to weaken and become more diffuse over time
This being said
there could still be a brief period of moderately heavy snow across the Buffalo area this afternoon as the low level flow briefly aligns with the long axis of Lake Erie.
Meanwhile the increasing warm air advection pattern will result in a northwest to southeast increase in isentropic ascent...such that some synoptically-driven light snow will become increasingly likely across all but the Southern Tier as we push through the afternoon hours. Additional accumulations during the day Saturday look to be greatest across the Tug Hill region and northern Oswego county...
where a general 6 to 10 inches could accumulate given the presence of the still-noteworthy lake band this morning
Elsewhere
somewhat lower amounts of 2-4 inches are expected within the LES Warning area east of Lake Erie this morning...with a couple inches or so of snow possible across the Niagara Frontier as the weakening lake snows lift northward through the day.

Tonight further warm advection will result in the atmosphere quickly becoming inhospitable to lake effect processes...with any remaining lake enhanced snow consequently falling apart northeast of the lakes
This will occur first off Lake Erie early this evening
and then off Lake Ontario some 3-6 hours later. Meanwhile isentropic ascent will continue to increase in the vicinity of the warm frontal zone as the surface low approaches this evening...before shifting eastward with time overnight. This will result in a period of widespread light to moderate snow across areas north of the southern Tier...with the snow lightest and shortest in duration (lasting only a few hours) across far western New York...and heavier and longer- lasting (likely into early Sunday morning) across the North Country...where a general additional 3 to 7 inches of accumulation appear to be in the cards through daybreak Sunday. With this in mind...we have further extended the existing Winter Storm Warning for the eastern Lake Ontario region out through 15z Sunday to cover this additional snowfall
As the synoptic snow tapers off
it may briefly mix with some light rain due to continued warming of the column.

The one other concern in the near term period is the potential for a period of strong gusty winds across far western New York from early this evening into early Sunday morning...as the low and an associated low level jet (45-50 knots at 925 mb and 50-60 knots at 850 mb) pass through our longitude. While the overall warm air advection pattern will tend to inhibit complete mixing of the strongest winds aloft to the surface...model soundings still show 40- 45 knot winds extending all the way down to about 1 kft AGL across extreme far western New York...and feel that we should be able to mix at least some of this down to the surface at times from the Lake Erie shoreline northward across Erie and Niagara counties...where a low-end Wind Advisory has been hoisted from 4 pm Saturday to 7 am Sunday.

Otherwise...temperatures will be on a general upward arc during this period given the prevailing warm air advection regime. After highs mostly in the upper 20s to mid 30s today...we can expect a non- diurnal temperature trend tonight...with steady or slowly rising temperatures resulting in readings climbing to the mid 30s to around 40 degrees in many areas by daybreak on Sunday.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Clipper low exits across northern New England Sunday. Accumulating wet snow across the eastern Lake Ontario region will wind down Sunday morning, with only minor additional accumulations of less than 2 inches across the the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks.
Westerly winds behind the exiting clipper low will remain gusty through the morning with gusts up to 35 mph possible, before winds gradually drop off during the afternoon. Temperatures moderate some Sunday with highs in the lower 40s, but in the mid to upper 30s across higher terrain. A trailing cold front will push southward into the region later in the day with a few mixed rain/snow showers possible.

A few lake driven light mixed rain/snow showers will be possible east of the lakes Sunday night, as the air aloft remains just cold enough. Lows Sunday night will range from the lower and mid 30s across western New York to the 20s across the North Country.

Strong upper wave crosses the region Monday, as a surface wave slides just to our south. Precipitation will become widespread through the day as forcing increases. Given continuing strong deep layer warm advection ahead of the approaching attendant surface low, profiles indicate that this should be a rain event, although some lingering colder air may allow for some wet snow at onset east of Lake Ontario. This should be short lived for lower elevations, but its possible some wet snow may remain mixed in through the day on the top of the Tug Hill region.
Rainfall amounts overall look to be in the one-third to one-half inch range. Some rises can be expected on area creeks and rivers due to warmer temperatures and associated snowmelt, but no hydro issues are expected at this time with this round of rain easily getting soaked into the unripe snowpack. Despite the rainy day Monday, a southerly push of milder air will get temperatures into the lower to mid 40s for most areas.

The steady rain exits the region Monday evening, leaving behind the chance for some lingering scattered light showers overnight.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Multiple shortwaves will deepen a long wave trough over the Plains Tuesday. An elongated frontal boundary draped over the east coast will likely exhibit several surface waves, each with their plume of precipitation along the front as this upstream trough/shortwaves near along with a strengthening 180 knot 300 hPa jet.

Still a bit early to get into specifics, but PWATs approaching an inch ahead of this trough could lead to heavier periods of rain...or if some of the colder models verify, rain changing to an accumulating wet snow Wednesday. Latest Ensemble River Forecast, including the NAEFS/GEFS/HEFS keep all but Cayuga Creek below action stage, thus we will still maintain the low river flooding threat, but certainly poor drainage ponding of water is likely with the snowmelt and rain.

Temperatures possibly reaching into the lower 50s ahead of this front Tuesday, will lower to a dreary mid 30s to around 40F Wednesday, and then back to or below freezing Thursday and Friday with lake effect snow again likely east of the Lakes.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Today ongoing lake snows and associated restrictions east of the lakes will weaken dramatically while drifting northward to areas northeast of the lakes. These will bring IFR conditions to KBUF/KIAG and KART from mid-late morning on through the afternoon hours.
Elsewhere a general lighter snow will overspread the region during the afternoon...with flight conditions lowering to the IFR range for all but the Southern Tier...where some improvement to MVFR/lower-end VFR is expected.

Tonight the remnant weak lake effect snow and light general snowfall will gradually diminish from southwest to northeast across western New York...with improvement to VFR expected for at least a brief period before MVFR ceilings (with possibly even some IFR across the higher terrain) return later on in the night
This being said
it will also turn rather windy across far western New York...with southwesterly gusts to 35-40 knots becoming possible from the Lake Erie shoreline northeastward across KBUF/KIAG. Further inland surface winds will be weaker...with some LLWS possible across the interior of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Further north and east across the North Country...steadier/moderate snow and associated LIFR to IFR restrictions will prevail through the night.

Outlook...

Sunday
Snow diminishing across the North Country
otherwise MVFR to IFR ceilings will linger areawide.
Monday and Tuesday.. MVFR/VFR with rain.
Wednesday.. MVFR/IFR with rain changing over to snow across the higher terrain.

MARINE
A still-brisk westerly flow will back to southwesterly today...then will notably ramp up late today and tonight, when gale force winds will be likely across Lake Erie (where a Gale Warning is now in effect) and possible across the open waters of Lake Ontario (where a Gale Watch has been issued
Otherwise
fairly widespread SCA conditions will prevail through Sunday...before winds and waves diminish Sunday night as weak ridging builds across the Lower Great Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-010-019-085.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040-041.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Sunday for LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Sunday for LOZ043>045.
Gale Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Sunday morning for LOZ062>065.