Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Minetto, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Rain has cleared out of the region this morning and the main cold front is approaching the eastern shores of Lake Ontario.
There is a gap of clearing over the Tug Hill region this morning ahead of the front, but clouds will be quick to fill back in across the region. Have updated the forecasted to drop out conditions and account for the brief clearing patch before clouds fill back into the region.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure and an associated mid level trough across the central Great Lakes will move into Ontario province tonight, which will push a cold front across the area through this evening. This line has become active late this afternoon, with just enough surface instability to take advantage of a strong 50 knot LLJ. There remains a marginal risk for severe weather with gusty winds, but the risk will continue to diminish as the front pushes eastward across the area through mid- evening.

Storms have trained at times, producing locally heavy rainfall at a few locations. The risk for additional flooding is also diminishing with the boundary moving to the east and weakening instability.

The Showers and scattered thunderstorms will end from west to east this evening with the passage of the cold front, with partial clearing overnight as drier air advects into the eastern Great Lakes.

Dry weather will return Tuesday, with deeper moisture and forcing associated with the mid level trough staying well north of the area across Quebec. There may be some lingering cloud cover during the first half of day, which will eventually scatter out. It will also be quite breezy again, especially northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario where winds will gust in the 30-35 mph range.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A weak surface ridge will provide mainly fair and dry weather through the period. A zonal flow aloft will bring a few weak shortwaves which will bring periodic cloud cover and a small chance (20%) for a few light showers at times. Temperatures will grow warmer with time, with highs reaching into the upper 60s to mid 70s on Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure and an associated shortwave will move across the area late Friday through Saturday morning. This is likely to bring a round of showers as it moves across the region, with a small chance of thunderstorms. Fairly good model agreement on this feature. After this, high pressure will build back into the region bringing a return to fair and dry weather Saturday afternoon through Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A cold front is through most of the terminals this morning and a brief period of clearing is starting to fill back in with low VFR to MVFR conditions. Expect ceilings to be across all of the terminals in the next several hours. High pressure will build in from the west today and scour out the ceilings with time and improve any MVFR to VFR and eventually all terminals to clear.
Winds remain elevated with and behind the cold front. South winds will remain for the next hour at KART ahead of the front.
Otherwise, expect a southwest to west wind direction with gusts of 20 to 30 kt expected through the early evening. Winds will calm with high pressure tonight, as the atmosphere decouples with clear conditions.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR with showers likely, mainly later in the afternoon.

Saturday...Mainly MVFR early, improving to VFR in the afternoon and evening.

MARINE
Low pressure will move to western Quebec on Tuesday, with a trailing cold front causing winds to pick up tonight and Tuesday.
This will support small craft headlines on eastern Lake Erie, the upper Niagara River, and eastern Lake Ontario tonight and Tuesday. The south shores of Lake Ontario will be close at times, but did not have the confidence to issue headlines for there yet.

Winds will gradually diminish later Tuesday night and Wednesday as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ044-045.