Minetto, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Minetto, NY

June 21, 2024 10:45 PM EDT (02:45 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 8:52 PM
Moonrise 8:12 PM   Moonset 3:28 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202406220315;;427486 Fzus51 Kbuf 212055 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 455 pm edt Fri jun 21 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-220315- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 455 pm edt Fri jun 21 2024

Tonight - North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers late. Waves 1 foot or less.

Saturday - Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.

Saturday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.

Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Sunday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then just a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.

Monday - West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.

Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.

Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 59 degrees, and the central lake ontario buoy water temperature is 64 degrees.

LOZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minetto, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 220112 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 912 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
While it will still be uncomfortably warm and humid through this weekend, a frontal boundary oscillating back and forth over our region will support enough cloud cover and some thunderstorm activity to somewhat suppress the dangerously high heat indices.
Unfortunately, the daily thunderstorms will carry the risk of torrential downpours and even severe weather. Notably cooler and more comfortable conditions can then be expected next week, especially during the latter half.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Tonight will be fairly dry to the south, with potential for fog formation, especially near areas that received afternoon storms. To the north and near the frontal boundary and deeper moisture a few showers and thunderstorms could not be ruled out...mainly late.
Otherwise it will be another warm night with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Saturday with a frontal boundary still wavering near northern portions of our region, and plenty of instability showers and thunderstorms will again blossom. Favored regions of lake breeze boundrys and near the front will for storms. This will leave just areas NE of Lake Erie with the lowest chances for storms. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 80s, which with the humidity will yield apparent temperatures 90 to 95F. Deeper moisture/cloud cover east of Lake Ontario will likely keep this area in the mid 70s for highs.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
An upper level trough will begin to dive across the upper Midwest Saturday night, causing associated low pressure to strengthen across the central Great Lakes and lift the warm front north of the region.
This will place the area beneath the warm sector, supporting ample warm moist air advection. Overall the chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout Saturday night, with the best likelihood for activity lying across the North Country due to its close proximity to the front.

The now (roughly) 995mb surface low and associated trough will track to the north of the area and result in a windy day Sunday, given the 850mb winds ramp up to nearly 45 knots. Overall this will support the passage of a strong cold front across the area, likely producing thunderstorms with its passage. Organized convection featuring damaging winds will also be possible due to the ample wind shear across the region. With this cold frontal passage, the arrival time will play an important role with convection. There still are significant differences in model guidance timing the frontal passage and strength of the low. SPC has a portion of our area in a marginal risk for severe weather. Even without thunderstorms, it will be a windy day with wind gusts across the Niagara Frontier around 45 mph.

The cold front will then slide to the east of the area Sunday night, supporting lingering showers and thunderstorms to taper off from west to east.

The potent shortwave trough aloft will move across New England Monday and bring increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms across the North Country with lower chances elsewhere. After such a warm and humid week, it will be notably cooler and drier Monday with highs in the 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
An upper level trough over New England Monday night will shift into the Canadian Maritimes by Tuesday, allowing a progressive mid-level ridge to briefly become established across the eastern Great Lakes.
An attendant area of surface high pressure shifting southeast across the Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast will provide the forecast area with a period of rain-free weather, while giving temperatures an upwards nudge back into the low and mid 80s by Tuesday afternoon.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return from west to east late Tuesday evening and through Tuesday night as the mid-level ridge moves east, causing a warm front to lift out of the Ohio Valley and into WNY. Confidence is low in timing and coverage of showers/thunderstorms associated with this front as long range guidance is in poor agreement on the evolution of a shortwave expected to slide east across Southern Ontario and the Great Lakes during this same timeframe. Greater chances for showers and thunderstorms will arrive Wednesday as a ~982mb surface low tracks across northern Quebec, sending its elongated cold front through the Northeast. While timing of this front and its associated prefrontal trough remain in question and thus lend lower confidence in how convection will ultimately unfold Wednesday...The system is expected to tap into a deeper plume of GOMEX-based moisture with PWATs potentially climbing to near 2" as it approaches. Thus, any storms that develop and move through the region should have the potential to bring locally heavy rains.

The primary cold front should move through the region Wednesday night, with increasing subsidence and a drier airmass allowing shower/thunderstorm chances to decrease from west to east in its wake. As much of the Northeast sits within the post-frontal airmass, temperatures will be notably cooler Thursday and Thursday night, with highs in the low/mid 70s and lows in the 50s and upper 40s respectively. Dry weather should then last through the end of the week with moderating temperatures as surface high pressure moves over and east of the region.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions will be in place throughout the region through the first half of tonight. As we push through the wee hours of the morning though...some stratus could develop over the IAG Frontier. This could lead to MVFR to IFr cigs at KBUF and KIAG.

On Saturday
the main issue will be threat for convection
particularly particularly east of Lake Ontario
Otherwise
there could be some MVFR cigs in the morning at KROC with a greater potential for cigs of 1500-2500 ft east at KART and KGTB.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Mainly VFR. A chance for evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Light winds and minimal wave action is expected to continue across the Lower lakes through Saturday. There will still be the chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms which could produce gusty winds and higher wave action.

A cold front will approach the region Sunday with increasing southwest winds which may bring a period of SCAs to area lakes. Northerly flow behind the front will then bring continued choppy conditions to the lakes through Monday. High pressure builds in late Monday with diminishing winds and waves for Tuesday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 3 mi46 minN 1.9G2.9 73°F 30.0566°F
45215 6 mi50 min 72°F 72°F1 ft
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 31 mi46 minNNE 5.8G7.8 70°F 68°F0 ft30.09
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 49 mi36 min0G1.9 70°F 68°F30.1063°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 59 mi46 minSE 4.1G4.1 70°F 30.13
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 60 mi46 min 70°F


Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFZY OSWEGO COUNTY,NY 8 sm51 mincalm10 smClear72°F66°F83%30.09
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Wind History graph: FZY
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Montague, NY,




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