Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wells, VT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1028 PM EDT Thursday...Temperatures are falling slightly quicker than forecast tonight as a thin veil of high clouds fails to keep in much heat. Patchy valley fog continues to be a concern, however, winds at higher elevations remain elevated, which could cause issues with fog development. Have increased mountain winds slightly to match this. Previous discussion below:

Previous discussion...Dry weather will continue over the next 24 hours as ridging builds just to our south. Outside of patchy valley fog, mostly clear skies will dominate overnight with just some high clouds streaming overhead. Clouds will increase on Friday though, especially in the afternoon to evening hours as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Precipitation should mainly hold off until after dark, with perhaps a few showers making into the St Lawrence Valley/Adirondacks early in the evening. Tonight's lows will be similar to what we've experienced recently, mainly in the mid 40s to around 50F. Tomorrow's will be similar to today, maybe a couple of degrees warmer, topping out in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 254 PM EDT Thursday...No significant changes were made to this period of the forecast, as we're still anticipating our next round of showers to arrive Friday night as a cold front crosses our region. Precipitation will develop during the evening hours from the Champlain Valley westward as an upper shortwave trough aids in forcing with the cold front. These features will then shift eastward overnight into Saturday morning. While some showers may linger across eastern VT for a little while after daybreak, in general expect the bulk of the day Saturday to be dry since the system will be fairly progressive. This fast movement will also help to limit potential rainfall totals. The NAM continues to be the most robust with lift, indicating the potential for briefly moderate to heavy rain, particularly in northern areas as the upper trough skirts overhead. Note there are also some indications of a bit of elevated instability as temperatures cool behind the front, which may also lead to locally higher rainfall rates. Still, expect most areas will get around a tenth of an inch or less, with up to a quarter of an inch in northern VT.

As mentioned above, Saturday morning may see a few lingering showers in eastern VT, but expect everyone will have a dry afternoon and then overnight. Skies may be a bit slower to clear, especially over the higher terrain and the Northeast Kingdom, but there should be at least partial sunshine everywhere by evening. Highs will be seasonable, though cooler than the past few days, with afternoon temperatures in the 60s. Winds will become a little breezy out of the northwest behind the cold front, which may make the day feel a little brisk. The clear and cooler conditions will continue Saturday night. Lows will mainly be in the upper 30s to mid 40s, but the Adirondacks and colder spots in the Northeast Kingdom could get down into the low/mid 30s, with some localized patchy frost possible.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 254 PM EDT Thursday...A significant pattern change is anticipated for next week, as a series of s/w's and cold fronts sweep acrs the northeast CONUS associated with developing deep mid/upper lvl trof. This pattern change wl feature much colder temps, plenty more clouds, and frequent intervals of precip, especially mtns for early to middle of next week.

First potent s/w and cold front impacts our cwa on Sunday aft/night with period of showers. Gradient sharpens ahead of boundary, so anticipate localized gusts 25 to 35 mph in the CPV and trrn associated with progged 850mb jet of 30 to 40 knots. Temps on Sunday should warm into the mid/upper 60s with steadier rain arriving aft 00z Monday. Given dynamics/forcing expect a widespread wetting rainfall on Sunday night into Monday with amounts btwn 0.25 and 0.50 acrs our cwa. Monday is transition day with cooler air arriving aloft as progged 850mb temps drop to near 0C by 00z near the International Border. As mid/upper lvl circulation deepens and becomes closed off at 7h/5h a series of s/w's and cold frnts wl track acrs our cwa from Tues thru Thurs of next week. These features in the northwest flow aloft wl have good dynamics and modest deep layer moisture to work with, resulting in on and off precip, with greatest concentration/frequency over the favorable upslope regions of the northern Dacks and central/northern Green mtns. In addition, the very warm Great Lakes wl add moisture content to the airmass and combined with cyclonic flow, expect plenty of clouds under low level caa.

Its interesting to note that the progged 850mb temps stay at or below 0C from roughly 06z Tues thru at least 12z Friday, suggesting summits hover mainly in the 30s/lower 40s daytime and 20s at night, while values warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Its that time of year where we experience large temp gradients btwn the valley floors and mtn summits acrs our cwa, associated with steepening low level lapse rates. For now, have a mix of snow/rain mostly at night in the grids for next week, but would not be surprised Mansfield and other summits experience a light snow accumulation at some point next week.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 00Z Saturday...The forecast for area terminals continues to be focused on fog potential. Best chances will be at SLK and MPV where temperatures are more likely to fall below crossover temperatures. Already at SLK, dew point are rising slightly as cooling continues; could see 2SM as early as 05Z with 1/2SM mainly 07-12Z. Similarly, MPV is cooling with same potential for fog as SLK. At RUT/MSS/EFK it's more tricky with intermittent fog/mist or fog forming in the vicinity of the terminals possible mainly 08-12Z. Kept conditions MVFR at RUT with more likely VFR for MSS/EFK. BTV/PBG should remain VFR tonight with less favorable conditions for fog. After 12Z, winds gain a southerly component remaining light 5-10mph with some high clouds around.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.