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FXUS61 KBTV 022032 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 332 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dreary weather with drizzle and fog will continue into Sunday morning as a stationary front lingers across the region.
Temperatures will begin to cool tonight, resulting in the potential for areas of freezing drizzle in parts of northern New York and Vermont, with any ice accretion limited to untreated overpasses and elevated surfaces. Then, a stronger system is expected to impact the region Sunday afternoon through Monday. Several inches of heavy, wet snow are expected for much of the region except for the lowest valleys. Conditions will trend cooler, with intermittent periods of showers as we head into mid week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 331 PM EST Saturday...We're finally seeing some gradually improving conditions across the region this afternoon, with area webcams and surface obs starting to indicate slowly increasing visibilities. The steadier light precipitation will continue to taper off through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, as well. However, ample low level moisture will linger overnight into Sunday morning. As such, periods of drizzle and fog are expected. Temperatures will fall only slightly tonight, but it should be enough for some portions of northern NY/VT to drop to near or below freezing. As such, freezing drizzle will be possible late tonight/early Sunday. Road temperatures are mainly in the upper 30s to low 40s, so any ice accretion should be a glaze and mainly limited to elevated surfaces and untreated secondary roads. Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s in the usual cold spots to the mid 30s in the southern Champlain/St Lawrence Valleys.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 331 PM EST Saturday...A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 1 pm Sunday to 7 am Tuesday for the Adirondacks and all of eastern VT east of the Greens, and the spine of the south central Greens. Main concern is heavy wet snow, leading to hazardous travel and possible scattered power outages. Snow totals during this time of 3 to 8 inches will be possible, with locations above 1500 receiving up to 10 inches. Lower elevations will mainly get 1-3 inches, with the valley floors an inch or less.

Patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle will likely be ongoing Sunday morning, but widespread precipitation will quickly spread from southwest to northeast Sunday afternoon. This is yet another tricky precipitation-type forecast as once again, boundary level temperatures will hover very close to freezing. However, a perusal of the latest hi-res guidance indicates most areas below 1500 ft will start out as rain, perhaps briefly mixing with snow at the onset. Overall expect just rain/snow, though can't rule out very brief periods of sleet during any transition. Also, with northeast wind in the St Lawrence Valley, there's a very real possibility that locations like KMSS may hold onto shallow sub-freezing temperatures for a few hours after onset; have added a chance of freezing rain to the northern St Lawrence accordingly, with perhaps a hundredth or two of ice accretion. Otherwise, rain will mix with and change over to snow at higher elevations through Sunday afternoon, with locations AOA 1000 ft likely all snow by the evening. We could see a pretty good warm-advection thump of snow during the evening/overnight as low pressure lifts along Lake Ontario and through the St Lawrence Valley. Snowfall rates may briefly approach 1 inch/hr, especially at higher elevations. Areas along/east of the Greens and in the northern Adirondacks will likely pick up 2-6 inches overnight; with southeast flow, upslope along the eastern side of the higher terrain will allow greater amounts to focus in the favored locations. Even valley locations could pick up some slushy accumulation overnight. With temperatures near to just above freezing, t he snow will be heavy and wet, with ratios 8-10 to 1, which may bring down some branches, resulting in scattered power outages. Travel will likely be difficult overnight, along with the Monday morning commute.

The low will drift along the international border on Monday, and much of the guidance shows drier air spilling into the region. We should see a brief break in the steadier precipitation for a bit during the mid-late morning hours, but as the low and its associated upper shortwave drift over the region Monday afternoon and evening, showers will reinvigorate, especially over the higher terrain.
Temperatures will warm slightly during the first part of the day, so again expect valley locations to see mainly rain, with rain/snow in the higher terrain. However, colder air will start to funnel into the region Monday evening and night as the upper shortwave traverses overhead. This will also help to make the snow lighter and fluffier in nature for the remainder of the event, with snow ratios more on the order of 12-15 to 1. Winds will turn toward the west, so while any rain turns back into snow, precipitation will also become more focused along the western slopes of the northern Adirondacks/Greens.
This activity will persist much of the overnight period. Lows will be in the 20s areawide.

Winds not looking like too much of an issue for this event as the strongest winds aloft will move through during the steady precipitation, limiting mixing. There could be some briefly higher gusts Sunday afternoon on the western sides of the Adirondacks and Greens due to downsloping of southeast flow, with perhaps some gusts up to 30 mph. Overall though, expect the windiest conditions to remain limited to summit level, where winds of 25-35 mph with higher gusts will be possible.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 331 PM EST Saturday...Overall the weather looks much quieter for the rest of the week with no large scale impactful systems to worry about. Upslope snow showers mainly across the higher terrain will continue through Tuesday night, slowly waning during the period, and eventually ending on Wednesday as a weak ridge of surface high pressure builds into the region for Wednesday night. A weak shortwave may bring some light snow showers to portions of western New York on Thursday, but the next best chance for precipitation comes as a weak clipper-type system will look to skirt the international border late Friday into Saturday. Thermal profiles mainly snow, though with some rain mixed in during the day in the broader valleys. Overall, not a big event by any standards with modeled QPF generally less than 0.2". Temps through the period will remain below normal for for early December through Friday with highs upper 20s to mid 30s, and lows teens to 20s.

AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 18Z Sunday...Persistence will be the forecast for the next 24 hours as little improvement, if any, is expected from current observations. That said, prevailing rain should taper back to areas of drizzle after 20-21Z and through the overnight, with rising chances for prevailing rain again from mid-Sunday morning onward. Otherwise, ceilings will continue to vary from VLIFR to IFR through the period, and visibility will like vary more from LIFR to MVFR at times. Winds will be light from the NNE at 6kts or less.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SN, Definite RA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-018>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ030-031-034.

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