Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oakland, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:18PM Friday August 14, 2020 10:43 AM PDT (17:43 UTC) Moonrise 12:33AMMoonset 4:17PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 856 Am Pdt Fri Aug 14 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Today..N wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt late afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 8 seconds and S 1 ft at 13 seconds.
Tonight..N wind 15 to 25 kt...becoming 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. Mixed swell nw 1 to 2 ft at 13 seconds and S 1 ft at 15 seconds.
Sat..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Sat night..N wind 5 to 15 kt...backing to S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft. Mixed swell nw 2 ft and S 1 ft. Patchy fog.
Sun..S wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to sw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..SW wind 5 to 15 kt...backing to S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 ft.
Mon..SE wind 5 kt...veering to nw in the afternoon and evening, then...veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..NE wind 5 kt...backing to n. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 ft. W swell 3 ft.
PZZ300 856 Am Pdt Fri Aug 14 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. A thermal trough along the coast will continue to bring gusty north winds and elevated seas to the waters today. Steep seas will be present across most the waters with very steep seas across portions of the waters from gold beach southward. Winds and seas will gradually subside tonight into Saturday. A wind reversal to southerlies is expected late Saturday into Sunday which is likely to result in fog, low clouds, and a possibility of drizzle. Light northerly winds are expected to return Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakland, OR
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location: 43.46, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 141624 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 924 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020

UPDATE. A couple of updates have been made to the forecast for today. These updates were to remove the mention of thunderstorms from the forecast for this evening that were in over the Warner Mountains and to adjust the smoke and related wording in and near Siskiyou County into SW Oregon.

DISCUSSION. Satellite imagery clearly indicates significant smoke in the Klamath River Valley from the Orleans area north to Happy Camp to about Seiad Valley. Given current and expected conditions we've increased the smoke wording there, as air quality issues should generally be expected there. Some of this smoke has and will continue to filter into portions of SW Oregon, particularly in the Siskiyou Mountains, though mixing this afternoon is likely to keep concentrations from being significant in terms of air quality.

Thunderstorms were removed from the forecast in the Warner Mountains area as instability is insufficient for these to form today.

Today we'll be focusing on the thunderstorm threat for this weekend into Monday and associated fire weather and short term product concerns. Data this morning continues to support isolated coverage with a mix of cloud cover, instability, and significant moisture moving northward this weekend, but does not support a significant thunderstorm outbreak despite the expected extreme heat and pre-existing dryness.

Numerical models indicate a stronger shortwave could move through Monday, but this is a new development and is not supported by some guidance, so we'll be assessing that impulse further today. ~BTL

AVIATION. For the 14/12Z TAFs . Clear skies are expected to continue for most areas through the TAF period. The one exception is smoke from the Red Salmon Fire, which will reduce visibilities in Siskiyou County in the vicinity of it and mainly west-north of it. Breezy to gusty north winds are expected at the coast and into the Umpqua Valley, including at KRBG this afternoon. -CC

MARINE. Updated 900 AM PDT Friday, 14 August 2020 . A thermal trough along the coast is bringing gusty north winds and elevated seas to the waters today. Steep seas will be present across most the waters with very steep seas across portions of the waters from Gold Beach southward beyond 10 nm from shore. Winds and seas will gradually subside Friday night into Saturday. A wind reversal to southerlies is expected late Saturday into Sunday which is likely to result in fog, low clouds, and a possibility of drizzle. Light northerly winds are expected to return Monday. Light winds and seas are expected to continue through Tuesday. Gusty north winds and steep seas may redevelop late Tuesday into Wednesday, especially for areas south of Cape Blanco. -CC

FIRE WEATHER. Updated 400 AM PDT Friday 14 August 2020 . Temperatures will warm and the air mass will continue drying out today. Although humidity values will be lower than yesterday, the winds should be a little lighter. The exception to this will be for the Umpqua Vally and the Coast range in Coos County where gusty north winds and low humidity will occur this afternoon. It will be very hot inland this weekend with high temperatures near record values. This will mean that fuels will become significantly drier than normal during the typically- driest time of the year. This will work to create near-critical conditions across many parts of the area through at least Sunday. So any lightning that's expected over the weekend is especially concerning. Deep southerly flow, initially associated with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Elida, will reach the area tonight. Isolated thunderstorms could develop on Saturday afternoon over the area, and how far north and west these storms reach is still a question. Right now we think there's a good chance for isolated storms from Agness eastward and from the Umpqua Divide and Chemult Southward on Saturday. Sunday, however, looks to be the more problematic day for isolated thunderstorms where a slight chance exists across the entirety of the area except for the western half of the Umpqua Valley and the Coast and Coast Range. Will need to keep an eye on the forecast as things will undoubtedly change. -Schaaf

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 645 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020/

DISCUSSION . There are several things to note with this new forecast package. The first is the excessive heat southern Oregon and northern California will be seeing west of the Cascades as well as some hot conditions for areas east of the Cascades. The excessive heat warnings and heat advisories will begin today at 11 AM and will continue through Sunday, with Saturday being the warmest day of the the forecast--and for many areas of the year so far. There is a possibility that additional heat products may be needed for Monday and Tuesday, but will allow the current suite to begin running their course before adding days. Overall, we will expect temperatures in the 90s for most places in southern Oregon and northern California and low 100s for west side valleys south of the Umpqua Divide. The exception to this will be for the coast and terrain features above 6000 feet. Still, these temperatures are still pretty warm for these areas. Saturday, expect temperatures to range between 5 and 10 degrees warmer, including at the coast and higher terrain-- bringing temperatures to 105-110 degrees in some parts of the Rogue and Illinois Valleys. Sunday will still be hot, but a few degrees cooler than Saturday. Please make sure you are doing what you can to prevent heat exhaustion and heat stroke, and check in on your neighbors and anyone else who may not have air conditioning. Overnight low temperatures will be warm enough that there will not be significant relief from the heat during the day, thus the reasoning for the heat products. Please see the NPWMFR for more details.

The second aspect of the short term forecast to worry about will be chances for Thunderstorm this weekend. Moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Elida will move into our area from south to north beginning as early as Friday. Do not expect any thunderstorm chances for today as the first day is not likely to produce enough moisture into the area along with other factors. Saturday, on the other hand, will have had the moisture moving in long enough as well as being highly unstable thanks to the hot temperatures that thunderstorms will be possible. Have started looking at convection allowing models (which are generally available only in the very short-term) as well as other more traditional parameters. Have added thunderstorms to fill in holes in the Rogue Valley and portions of the East Side from Chemult south to Klamath Falls while keeping the previous thunderstorm chances in tact. The biggest change to the forecast is for Sunday as additional moisture from the southwestern US monsoon also moves into our area. Have added thunderstorms for most places except for portions of the Umpqua Valley and the Coast. My general thought is that Sunday will be the more problematic day for thunderstorms. There are a couple of limiting factors which may hinder thunderstorm development--namely a cirrus shield early in the day on Saturday which could provide a sort of capping effect. Still, don't see capping to be a huge deterrent for thunderstorm initiation when we get to temperatures in the 100s. For those of you who will understandably try to beat the heat by recreating in the mountains and lakes and rivers, make sure that you have a plan if a thunderstorm develops. Remember, the safest place in a thunderstorm is in a building that completely encloses like a house. A car with a metal frame/roof would also work--just don't touch anything metal within the vehicle. When thunder roars, go indoors.

One of the other things to note with the complexity of this forecast is that if thunderstorms do indeed form, these storm clouds will work to "shade" some of these areas, preventing the temperatures from realizing their peaks. This situation will continue to evolve, so please stay tuned to the forecast.

Thunderstorm chances will largely end on Monday, and after Tuesday, temperatures will be much closer to normal with winds from the west helping to push the Marine layer in a little bit farther than the immediate coast. This will provide some relief in our otherwise high-impact forecast. -Schaaf

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Heat Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ027>029. Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ024-026. Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ021-022. Excessive Heat Warning from 8 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ023-025.

CA . Heat Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ082>084. Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ080-081.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ376.

BTL/MAS/BMS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roseburg Regional Airport, OR16 mi51 minW 410.00 miFair66°F43°F43%1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRBG

Wind History from RBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5N10N9N8N10
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N8N5N6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4
1 day agoCalmN544N8N6
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2 days agoNE5Calm4--NW7N8NW9
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NW5NW6NW7CalmN3CalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:35 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:58 AM PDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:20 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:40 AM PDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:14 PM PDT     2.93 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:21 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:20 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:15 PM PDT     6.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.73.62.51.50.80.60.91.52.43.344.54.54.23.73.22.933.54.35.266.36.2

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:35 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:43 AM PDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:20 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:25 AM PDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:59 PM PDT     2.93 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:21 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:20 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:00 PM PDT     6.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.43.32.21.30.70.611.72.63.54.24.54.54.13.63.12.93.13.74.55.46.16.46.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.