Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oswego, NY

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Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:44PM Thursday July 18, 2019 11:30 PM EDT (03:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:05PMMoonset 6:09AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201907182100;;254399 Fzus51 Kbuf 181435 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1031 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-182100- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1031 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Rest of today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 72 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oswego, NY
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location: 43.47, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 182356
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
756 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
Oppressive summer heat and humidity will build into the region
Friday through the weekend with a few brief rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. A cold front is expected to cross the area by Sunday
night, allowing for a break from the heat and humidity by early next
week.

Near term through Friday
High pressure will move east along the east coast late tonight and
southwest flow will increase across the region into Friday morning.

A 592 dm ridge over the central and southeastern u.S. Will build
northward and a 30kt westerly low-level jet will ride the top of
the ridge into the eastern great lakes through Friday morning. This
will advect +20c 850 hpa temperatures into western ny early Friday
morning and east of lake ontario by Friday afternoon. This surge of
warm air will also carry the potential for showers and thunderstorms
to move into western new york early Friday morning. An increase in
instability from activity across the mid-west this afternoon will
head towards the region Friday morning. Hi-res guidance is shunting
most of this activity into ohio but it may clip the southern tier.

Another shortwave trough across ontario will also bring the
potential for showers to clip the north country early Friday
morning. Mild and muggy tonight with low temperatures in the low
70's to upper 60's across the southern tier and east of lake ontario.

The talked about oppressive heat and humidity arrives Friday with
high temperatures expected to climb into the upper 80's to low 90's.

The highest temperatures will occur across the lake plains and
genesee valley. A gusty southwest wind will keep areas downwind of
the lakes on the cooler side but still hot. Adding fuel to the fire,
dewpoints will climb into the mid to upper 70's, abnormal for
western and north central ny. This will result in heat index values
of 105-110 across the lake plains and genesee valley and 95-104
across the rest of western and north central ny. Heat headlines are
in effect including excessive heat warning for the lake plains and
genesee valley and head advisories elsewhere. These headlines begin
10 am Friday and continue through 6 pm Saturday.

The heat and humidity will produce an abundance of instability
during the day. Showers and thunderstorms will likely form earlier
than normal along differential heating and or lake breeze
boundaries. Yes, that means cloud cover will be around and may
inhibit some places from reaching their full potential for high
temperatures but there should be enough breaks in the clouds and
warm air advection to raise our temperatures to oppressive levels.

Moderate shear of 20-30kts and instability may cause some storms to
become strong to severe late Friday morning through Friday afternoon.

Short term Friday night through Monday night
Dangerously oppressive heat continues a little longer...

an expansive 594dm sub tropical ridge extending from bermuda back
across the eastern half of the country to baja california will
continue to bathe the majority of the country in a sweltering sauna
of heat and high humidity through at least the first half of the
weekend. Interestingly... The ridge is not especially unusual. Rather
it is the 'perfect storm' of several variables coming together...

primarily anomalous temperatures below 10k ft and extraordinarily
high pwat values coinciding with the thermal solstice. Its one thing
to have h7 h85 temperatures 2 to 3 std above normal... And its quite
another to have that occur during the climatological MAX period of
the year. These values have return intervals of 10 to 20 years for
this point in summer. That in itself is impressive.

All of that being said... Ensemble guidance (gefs sref) continues to
hammer home the forecast of 20-22 c air at h85 for Friday night and
Saturday with some deterministic guidance as high as 24c. Unlike
Friday when there could be some MCS remnants in the morning to delay
insolation... Cloud cover on Saturday should not be an issue in
getting the heat started. Additionally... We will get a head start on
the dangerous heat due to the fact that Friday night will be at
least 5 deg f warmer than the previous night. Specifically... Mins
Friday night will only be in the mid 70s across the western counties
with MAX temps Saturday ranging from the upper 80s across the north
country... Higher terrain and lake cooled areas to 90-95 inland
across the lake plains. When mid 70 dew points are factored in...

heat indices will Saturday afternoon will generally range from 100
to 105. This will easily support widespread heat advisories with the
very real threat for excessive heat warning conditions.

In regards to pcpn... There will be two areas of convection to
contend with Friday evening. The first will be leftover lake breeze
driven thunderstorm activity across the southern tier... And the
second will be a blossoming area of potentially strong storms
supported by a convectively enhanced shortwave moving southeast from
southern ontario. Will use high chc to likely pops to cover the
latter... But both areas will either die off or pass through the
region by 06z. The important note with the convection is that it
will occur within near an EML plume... Something that we have been
pointing out for the past several days. The origin of this elevated
instability can be seen on this mornings klbf and kabq soundings.

During the course of the next 36 to 48 hours... This instability
(lapse rates >7 deg c km) will be advected across the northern
plains to the great lakes (as per hysplit trajectory forecasts at
the 700-500mb level). This will certainly have the ability to
enhance the above described convection (esp. Activity coming out of
srn ontario) and drive up the risk for strong damaging thunderstorm
wind gusts. The moisture rich environment and 'fat cape' profile
will also aid in ramping up greater than normal cloud to ground
lightning strikes. Will use some enhanced wording for the SRN tier
for this risk.

Mainly dry weather is then expected from the second half of Friday
night through the bulk of Saturday. While there will be the
potential for some showers and thunderstorms south and east of
buffalo and rochester late Saturday afternoon... The next round of
convection will be largely driven by the first of two cold fronts
that will be approaching from southern ontario. The first of these
fronts will pass through the region Saturday night and will take the
edge off the heat for the second half of the weekend. The second
front will usher in the true relief for the new work week... But
thats getting ahead of ourselves.

The initial cold front will press south across our region Saturday
night. Will carry high chc pops during the first half of the night
for the associated convection with diminishing pops for the
overnight into Sunday morning. Steep mid level lapse rates may still
be in place early... So will have to remain vigilant for more strong
thunderstorm activity.

As the first fronts stalls over pennsylvania on Sunday... The
secondary cold front will make its across lake ontario. Subsidence
between the two boundaries should provide a six hour period of mainly
convection free weather over the region... But timing this relatively
narrow window will be difficult. May just broad brush chc pops for
now and await more clear cut guidance before fine tuning. In either
case... Temperatures will be several degrees lower on Sunday with the
mercury topping out in the mid to upper 80s. While it will still be
quite warm... Lower humidity levels should help to make things a
little more tolerable.

High pressure centered over the northern plains Sunday night will
settle south across the mississippi valley Monday and Monday night.

This will usher cooler and notably drier air across all of the great
lakes region... Allowing our temperatures to drop back to below
normal levels.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday
What a difference a week makes! There is increasing confidence that
we will be able to enjoy near to below normal temperatures during
this period. The ECMWF and GEFS ensemble are in lock step agreement
that an amplified pattern will be in place across the country during
this period... One that will feature an anomalously strong ridge in
the west and a deep longwave trough in the east. This will support a
prolonged flow of canadian cooled mid summer air with low double
digit h85 temps only allowing daytime highs to climb to between 75
and 80f.

Meanwhile... A massive surface high will generally reside over the
upper mid west. This will promote fair dry weather across the
region... Although a weak frontal passage on Thursday could generate
a few nuisance showers.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
Vfr conditions are expected through 09z. An area of showers and
thunderstorms will approach from southern ontario late tonight,
possibly reaching the area by daybreak Friday with a round of
local brief MVFR to ifr conditions in the heavier showers. At this
time, activity looks confined to kjhw Friday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will form along lake breeze boundaries and
differential heating boundaries Friday. These storms have the
potential to become strong to severe with brief reductions in
cigs vsbys and gusty winds if near terminals. Highest risk for
strong storms will be across kjhw.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday... MainlyVFR with a chance of a few brief
rounds of showers and thunderstorms with associated local MVFR to
ifr.

Tuesday...VFR conditions expected.

Marine
Winds will remain light through tonight, generally 10 knots or less.

Southwest winds will increase Friday and Saturday, averaging 15
knots on lakes erie and ontario. This will produce choppy conditions
at times, although winds and waves will likely remain below small
craft advisory levels.

There will be a chance of a few scattered thunderstorms at times
Friday through the weekend. Any thunderstorm may produce locally
higher winds and waves.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Heat advisory from noon Friday to 6 pm edt Saturday for
nyz006>008-010>012-019>021-085.

Excessive heat warning from noon Friday to 6 pm edt Saturday
for nyz001>005-013-014.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock hsk tma
near term... Hsk tma
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Hitchcock hsk tma
marine... Hitchcock hsk tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 0 mi48 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 74°F 1011 hPa70°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 29 mi90 min S 5.8 G 5.8 71°F 73°F1010.8 hPa (+0.2)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 48 mi20 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 73°F 72°F70°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 59 mi30 min S 2.9 G 2.9 75°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 61 mi48 min 72°F 1010.1 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY10 mi36 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist69°F64°F87%1011.1 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm54Calm34CalmNW9NW6N7NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW3SW4S4SW5SW3S4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmW7CalmSW5S63CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE33SE3SE3CalmS7SW8W7SW45SW104SW8SW5S6S7S5S7S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.