Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oswego, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:47PM Monday July 13, 2020 10:37 PM EDT (02:37 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:04PM Illumination 38% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202007132115;;785023 Fzus51 Kbuf 131418 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1018 Am Edt Mon Jul 13 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-132115- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1018 Am Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Rest of today..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers late this morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming south and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Friday..West winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 75 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oswego, NY
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location: 43.47, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 132323 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 723 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak upper level disturbances will bring some showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. Heat and humidity will increase through the rest of the week, with the best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. Shortwave lifting across eastern Lake Ontario to the North Country continues to generate clusters of thunderstorms from western NY to the North Country. Thus far, storms have mainly produced heavy downpours and hail up to 0.5 inch with MLCAPES of 500-1000 j/kg and weaker shear mainly 20 kts or less.

With loss of daytime heating, these storms will gradually fade away but it may take until 10-11 PM. Otherwise, could still see a few showers linger east of Lake Ontario nearest to the departing trough, and along the southeastern shores of Lake Ontario along a weak convergence boundary. Overnight tonight most areas will be dry, but cool.

On Tuesday, the shortwave will continue to slide eastward while a mid level ridge expands into the eastern Great Lakes. There may be some lingering showers east of Rochester, and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Clouds will linger well into the day due to moisture trapped beneath an inversion, but should break up from west to east with increasing influence of the ridge.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. A 500mb ridge axis and its associated surface high pressure will pass over the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night promoting dry weather throughout this timeframe. Also associated with this pattern, a southerly wind regime will allow for warmer temperatures to advect into the region causing temperatures to climb up into the 80s, with the higher temperatures will occur across the lower elevations.

The 500mb ridge axis will depart eastward from the region Wednesday night, while a shortwave trough begins its traverse through the Lower Great Lakes. While it appears to remain dry through the majority of the night on Wednesday, as we head into Thursday the chances for showers and storms will gradually increase as a surface cold front encroaches and crosses over the area. Like Wednesday, high temperatures Thursday will warm up into the 80s, with the warmer temperatures in this range occuring the lower elevations.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. In the wake of the cold frontal passage Thursday, the upper air pattern will become more zonally orientated with an elongated bubble of high pressure located over the southern half of the CONUS Friday and Saturday. This pattern will allow for a couple of dry warm days with highs climbing back into the upper 80s and low 90s.

The next chance for showers and storms enters the forecast Sunday and Monday the next shortwave approaches the region. Though even with these chances heat and humidity will continue to stay elevated with highs reaching the low 90s.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Mainly VFR flight conditions this evening. However there will be area of MVFR or even brief IFR in any showers and thunderstorms early this evening with greatest chances at BUF and ART.

There's a risk of patchy fog and low moisture and stratus late tonight. Expect MVFR flight conditions to develop after 06Z tonight. Patchy fog across the Southern Tier may result in IFR conditions at KJHW.

Expect clouds to linger well into Tuesday morning, before cloud bases rise into the VFR flight category late morning or early afternoon. Expect mainly VFR flight conditions by Tuesday afternoon as clouds begin to scatter out.

Outlook .

Tuesday night and Wednesday . VFR. Thursday . VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. Friday . Mainly VFR. A small chance of showers. Saturday . VFR.

MARINE. Weak gradient will provide gentle to occasional moderate breezes through Wednesday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel/JLA SHORT TERM . EAJ LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . Apffel/JLA MARINE . Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 29 mi98 min W 14 G 16 72°F 74°F2 ft1012 hPa (+1.2)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 48 mi38 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 1012.4 hPa68°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 59 mi38 min W 7 G 8.9 72°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY10 mi44 minW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F63°F84%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW3SW5S5SW4SW6SW5SW3SW6SW6W7W9W11W8W12NW13W10NW9
G17
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1 day agoW11W8NW9
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W8W7W9W12W12W12
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W11W10W9W11W10W13NW8NW8NW7W5NW6CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmW5W4SW3SW4CalmW4SW5W634SE4SW9NW53NW4NW4NW3N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.