Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oswego, NY

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 4:31PM Sunday December 8, 2019 12:53 PM EST (17:53 UTC) Moonrise 2:44PMMoonset 3:26AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201912081030;;022338 Fzus51 Kbuf 080533 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1233 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-081030- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1233 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Overnight..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Rain showers with snow showers likely during the day, then lake effect snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 41 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oswego, NY
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location: 43.47, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 081452 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 952 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure across the eastern Great Lakes will move off the southern New England coast today, bringing dry and breezy conditions. Low pressure will track across the central Great Lakes Monday with above normal temperatures and rain showers for the start of the work week, followed by colder weather and lake effect snow showers for mid week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. High pressure will continue to move east and off the southern New England coast today. A round of warm advection forced enhanced cloud cover sliding out of the western Great Lakes ahead of a surface low over south central Canada will make inroads across the area this afternoon. Some mid level radar returns showing up, but expect that any rain shower activity will remain well to the north and west of the area through the daylight hours today.

Warm advection will help push temperatures above normal today with highs in the mid 40s across western New York and mid to upper 30s east of Lake Ontario. It will be a rather breezy day today with the presence of a 40-50 knot low level jet across the area which will bring gusty southerly winds. Winds will gust to around 30 mph at most locations, except to around 40 mph across favored downslope areas.

A weak surface trough of low pressure across the central Great Lakes this evening will move eastward towards our region tonight. Strong southwesterly flow will provide a broad area of warm and moist advection. Chances for showers will increase after midnight tonight. First across the North Country, then spreading southeast across western and central New York. The southerly flow will prevent temperatures from dropping below freezing at most locations, but there is a chance for below freezing temperatures and a brief period of snow or sleet mix at the onset across the North Country with thermal profiles showing a mid-level warm layer just above 0C. Would not even rule out some patchy freeing rain. Otherwise, low temperatures will range from the lower 40s across the lake plains west of Rochester with mid to upper 30s at most other locations. Any rainfall amounts or snow/sleet accumulations will be minimal.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. A longwave trough will take shape over central and eastern Canada and the adjacent northern tier of the US Monday and Tuesday. A surface low over Lake Michigan Monday morning will deepen steadily as it reaches Lake Huron late Monday, then central Quebec by Tuesday. A trailing cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday morning. Large scale ascent ahead of the mid level trough, left exit region upper level jet dynamics, warm advection and moisture transport will support periods of rain Monday and Monday evening ahead of the system.

The greatest rainfall will be found east of Lake Ontario, especially the southern Tug Hill region with enhancement from southerly upslope flow. Rainfall amounts may reach or exceed 1 inch in this area. Otherwise for the rest of the area rainfall looks to be well under an inch. The combination of rain and snowmelt will result in some rises in the Black River basin and some of the other rivers that drain the Tug Hill Plateau, but flooding is not expected.

Temperatures will run above normal Monday in the broad warm advection regime ahead of the system. Highs will reach the mid to upper 40s in most areas, with some low 50s likely along the Lake Erie shore with an added boost of southerly downslope flow. Temperatures will stay warm most of Monday night, and may even rise for a few hours just ahead of the cold front.

The surface cold front will sweep east across the area very late Monday night and Tuesday morning with a few more showers. Some model guidance, such as the NAM and ECWMF continue to suggest a minor frontal wave developing on Tuesday, which would slow the advancing front and possibly support some lingering precip on the cold side of the boundary as it becomes more anabatic in nature. If this occurs, the rain may change to some wet snow before ending. Cold air will only grow marginally deep enough to support a limited lake response east of the lakes by mid to late afternoon, with some snow showers developing. This initial lake effect snow will be on the light side given the marginal instability.

Temperatures will drop from the 40s through the 30s Tuesday in moderately strong cold advection behind the front. It will be windy behind the front, especially east and northeast of the lakes, but model guidance is unanimous in keeping gusts below advisory criteria.

Our attention then turns to lake effect snow potential. Over the past several days, the setup shown by model guidance has looked steadily less impressive, with numerous wind direction changes and periods of shear and dry air limiting potential. While we expect accumulating lake snows, the potential for a truly major event looks to be off the table at this point.

Tuesday night, lake effect snow showers will develop east of the lakes. Close proximity of a surface ridge will produce some shear and dry air through the boundary layer, which will likely hamper lake effect snow organization and intensity despite deepening instability over the lakes. At this point, any accumulations look to be minor Tuesday night across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and Ontario.

A mid level shortwave and associated clipper low will pass by to the north of our area Wednesday. Lake effect snow showers will move north ahead of the clipper as boundary layer flow backs. This will carry the Lake Erie snow north into Buffalo, and possibly north of Buffalo briefly. Lake Ontario snow will move into central and northern Jefferson County. It should still be relatively weak during the trip northward. Lake snows will then move back south with the passage of the clipper, and likely intensify as cold air deepens and lake instability increases. Convergence along the cold front of the clipper may merge with the lake effect snow and yield greater intensity for a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Boundary layer flow will become westerly by Wednesday evening in the wake of the clipper, carrying lake effect snow into the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and the Tug Hill region off Lake Ontario. Flow then becomes northwest later Wednesday night, with weakening lake effect snow spreading out southeast of both lakes.

The peak intensity of this lake effect snow event will likely be at and just after the passage of the clipper, Wednesday afternoon and evening. The most favorable conditions are relatively brief and the bands will be in motion, which will limit the potential for heavy accumulations in any one location. Warning criteria snow is possible during this time window if the bands become strong enough, but confidence is low given uncertainties with respect to placement, intensity, and longevity of the heavy snow.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Any lingering lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes Thursday morning will end as high pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes. Otherwise expect some partial clearing outside of lake effect clouds. Highs will be in the mid 20s in most locations. The surface high will still be close by Thursday night, with associated light winds allowing lows to drop into the teens in most areas, and single digits east of Lake Ontario.

The surface high moves off the east coast Friday, with a continuation of dry weather. Developing southerly flow in the wake of the departing high will bring the start of a warming trend, with highs in the mid to upper 30s. The warming trend will continue through Saturday with deep southerly flow across the eastern US, supporting highs back into the low 40s in most areas. A complex pattern will evolve over the east, with a northern stream trough moving into the western Great Lakes and a southern stream low moving north out of the Gulf of Mexico and into the Mid Atlantic states. Moisture spreading north of this southern stream low will bring an increasing chance of rain showers Saturday.

AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. High pressure will move to the southern New England coast with widespread VFR flight conditions continuing across the region through the day today. Winds will gust 20 to 30 knots area wide during the afternoon.

Ongoing warm air advection will support increasing mid and high level clouds through the day today. Low level moisture will then increase fairly rapidly across the region this afternoon. This will bring MVFR cigs into the western Southern Tier and KJHW perhaps as early as 20z, with low VFR or marginal MVFR cigs overspreading the KBUF/KIAG terminals tonight. Rain showers, possibly mixed with sleet, will move into the North Country late tonight. At KART these will likely be all rain and on the light side.

Outlook .

Monday . Areas of MVFR in rain. Tuesday . MVFR with rain showers ending from west to east. Snow showers possible late. Wednesday . IFR within lake effect snow east of the lakes. Thursday . VFR with localized IFR in lake effect snow showers east of the lakes.

MARINE. High pressure will slide east of the area today. South to south- southwest winds will quickly increase on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario this morning. Marine headlines for the eastern end of both lake Erie and Lake Ontario are outlined below.

A windy period is expected through much of the week as a strong cold front crosses the area Tuesday, followed by moderate westerlies Tuesday night through Thursday night.

HYDROLOGY. A period of warmer temperatures will cause snow melt which will add to run-off from rain on Monday and Tuesday. For most basins, rainfall amounts and the amount of snow pack in place is limited resulting in little risk for flooding.

There is a bit more snow pack in place in the Black River basin, with Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) values in the 1-2 inch range. Model guidance shows a bit more QPF here, with some models in the 1-2 range across favorable upslope regions. This supports a low risk for flooding in the Black River basin, but there are several limiting factors which is probably why GEFS and NAEFS MMEFS ensembles are not showing much of a risk for flooding. SREF ensembles show a small chance of flooding in the Black River basin. It appears that the higher rainfall amounts will be localized to upslope regions and not represent basin averages. Also, temperatures are not likely to get warm enough to melt all of the snow pack in place. The most likely outcome is action stage at best, but the situation bears watching. At this point no flood headlines are anticipated in our forecast area unless some of these limiting factors change.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ020-040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/JM/TMA NEAR TERM . Apffel/JM/TMA SHORT TERM . Hitchcock LONG TERM . Hitchcock AVIATION . Apffel/JM/TMA MARINE . Apffel/JM/TMA HYDROLOGY . Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 0 mi53 min S 16 G 25 1021.8 hPa (-3.5)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 59 mi53 min S 14 G 20 40°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 61 mi53 min 40°F 1019.4 hPa (-3.5)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY10 mi59 minVar 510.00 miOvercast32°F18°F56%1024.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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NW10W9W6CalmCalmSW5S3S4CalmCalmCalmSE3SE4SE3SE35SE666655
1 day agoCalmN5NW6N7NW7NW9NW7NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW12NW10NW10
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NW11W9NW11NW10NW6W5SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE334CalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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