Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oswego, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:30PM Sunday March 29, 2020 1:18 AM EDT (05:18 UTC) Moonrise 8:39AMMoonset 11:48PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 509 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening...
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers this evening, then showers likely after midnight. Rain late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Rain with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers likely in the evening, then a chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ044 Expires:202003290315;;216774 FZUS51 KBUF 282109 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 509 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-290315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oswego, NY
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location: 43.47, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 290248 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1048 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will cross the region late tonight, followed by low pressure moving from the central Great Lakes to just north of Lake Ontario Sunday through Monday. This will produce periods of rain across the region through the rest of the weekend, with a few showers lingering Monday and Tuesday as the system moves very slowly off the New England coast. A few wet snowflakes may mix in Monday night and Tuesday morning as colder air moves into the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Radar, lightning plots and sfc obs continue to show showers and thunderstorms well to the southwest and south of the area, closer to warm front/gradient of sfc/ML instability. Have seen light rain and drizzle at times from the Finger Lakes into western NY this evening to the north of the warm front. Patches of locally dense fog are occurring across Southern Tier.

Upstream, a few thunderstrorms have developed in the last hour from northern Indiana into northern Ohio, likely forced by advancing convective shortwave and large complex of thunderstorms lifting across central and southern Indiana and extending back along sfc trough along the Mississippi river. Expect initial thunderstorms over northern Ohio to make it into southwest NY after midnight, though they may weaken by that time.

After this initial area of showers and possible thunder moves in, additional showers and scattered thunderstorms look to move across the lower Great Lakes after 07z-08z (3-4 AM). This is currently from the largely sfc based activity from Indiana to the southwest, so it is still uncertain how these storms will evolve into an elevated state later tonight, at least in terms of their strength. This activity will persist into Sunday morning, especially over western NY, before lifting north into Ontario and Quebec by late morning. This rain will be driven what is looking more and more like a convectively enhanced shortwave as well as increasing isentropic upglide and moisture transport on the nose of a 40-50 knot low level jet. Elevated instability will gradually increase from southwest to northeast, and this will support a chance of a few embedded thunderstorms. Given effective shear over 40 kts and MUCAPE up to 400 j/kg above lifting level of H85, there is a small risk of some larger hail with the strongest storms. The strong low-level stable layer will likely keep any convective wind risk minimal. At the least, should see heavy downpours as these move through late tonight.

The steady, warm advection driven rain ends from southwest to northeast on Sunday as the warm front moves across the eastern Great Lakes. There will likely still be a few showers around for the rest of the day, supported by increasing large scale ascent ahead of the mid level trough and the approach of the surface cold front late in the day. Weak instability will also continue through Sunday, supporting a chance of a few more scattered thunderstorms with the warm front in the morning, and then again in the afternoon along or just ahead of the cold front. If there are enough breaks in the rain and dense overcast, the instability may become more surface based later in the afternoon across Western NY, which would support a low chance of a few stronger storms.

It will become quite windy Sunday, from a few different mechanisms. First, a strong 50-60 knot southerly low level jet will cross the eastern Lake Ontario region during the morning and midday hours. This will produce a brief period of enhanced downslope winds along the northward facing slopes of the Tug Hill Plateau, with gusts of 40-45 mph possible. Second, southwest winds will become gusty across Western NY during the afternoon as lapse rates steepen with the approach of the surface cold front. This may also produce gusts of 40-45 mph. Both of these setups continue to look marginal for wind advisory wind gusts for any length of time.

Temperatures will begin to rise through the 50s later tonight across Western NY, and rise through the 40s east of Lake Ontario as warm advection and southerly downslope winds increase. Temperatures will then soar on Sunday after the steady rain ends. Expect highs well into the 60s in most areas, with low 70s a possibility across Western NY away from the cooling influences of the lakes. The eastern Lake Ontario region will see highs in the 50s.

The cold front will sweep east across the area during the first half of Sunday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms along the cold front will end from west to east. Deeper wrap around moisture and forcing from the approaching mid level cutoff low will then bring an increasing chance of showers again late Sunday night, first across Western NY and then spreading east across the rest of the area during the pre-dawn hours of Monday. It will remain quite windy Sunday night, with gusts of 30-40 mph common across the region as colder air pours back into the eastern Great Lakes.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Parent low pressure in southeastern Ontario will be weakening while transferring its energy to a secondary surface low off the New England coast for start of the work week. Though weakening, the low to our north will provide a combination of cyclonic flow and ample wrap around moisture as well as the passage of a mid level trough and convergence at the low levels to the east of the lakes will keep the potential for rain showers across much of the region Monday and Monday night. More abundant showers will occur in the areas east of Lake Ontario due to some additional support from upsloping. Some of the rain showers will have the potential to switch over to some wet snow Monday night for the areas across the Southern Tier along the Chautauqua Ridge and east of Lake Ontario.

Showers will begin to taper off in the western counties Tuesday morning as dry air begins filter in from the Canadian surface high well to the north of the Hudson Bay. While the western half of the region will have a brief interlude of dry weather on Tuesday, showers will linger to the areas east of Lake Ontario due to the proximity of the remnants of cyclonic flow from the coastal low.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The next system looks to make its easterly track to our south on Wednesday, kept chances for precipitation along the NY and PA border as model guidances are not aligning in the exact placement of the passing low pressure system. For the remainder of the period the overall weather pattern appears to remain active as the region will remain under a blocked pattern. A large upper level trough will set up over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region which will allow for a few disturbances to rotate through causing periods of rain showers and clouds. Temperatures throughout this period will remain slightly below normal for daytime highs whereas overnight lows appear to remain around normal.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Approaching warm front has resulted in intervals of light rain and drizzle from the Finger Lakes to western NY. This should persist before the warm front moves though after midnight. Batch of showers and isolated thunder may reach KJHW after midnight, but otherwise next period of showers with some embedded thunder will not arrive over western NY until late tonight and spreading over the rest of the region through Sunday morning.

Though conditions are mainly MVFR this evening, still are seeing patches of fog and LIFR conditions over the higher terrain of the southern Tier, including KJHW. These may improve slightly to IFR overnight as some rain scours out the fog, but overall expect MVFR vsby to drop to IFR at times for all sites late tonight through Sunday morning as steadier and heavier rainfall moves across. Cigs for most part will settle into IFR range later tonight across western NY, with MVFR east of Lake Ontario.

The steady rain will taper off from west to east Sunday afternoon, to be replaced by a few more showers and isolated thunderstorms as a cold front crosses the region. CIGS will improve to mainly VFR at lower elevations from west to east, with some MVFR lingering across higher terrain and in any showers that develop.

Finally, low level wind shear will develop all areas on Sunday as a strong 50+ knot low level jet crosses the region.

Outlook .

Sunday night and Monday . MVFR/IFR with showers likely. Tuesday . VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. Wednesday and Thursday . Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.

MARINE. Moderate ENE winds will continue to produce Small Craft Advisory conditions through tonight on the western portion of Lake Ontario. Increasing southerly winds shifting southwest ahead of cold front on Sunday has prompted additional small craft advisories across all of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. These strong winds will continue through Monday on Lake Erie. Winds will be somewhat lighter on Lake Ontario on Monday, but still strong enough to produce choppy wave action.

HYDROLOGY. Several rounds of rainfall will cross the eastern Great Lakes the rest of the weekend, with the heaviest and most widespread rain late tonight through Sunday morning as a warm front crosses the region. Total rainfall amounts through the weekend, including what has already occurred, will reach 1.25-1.75 inches across the western Southern Tier, and 0.75-1.25 inches across the rest of the region. Locally higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms.

These rainfall amounts will result in rises on area creeks and rivers, but latest RFC forecasts suggest all the larger rivers will remain within their banks. The Allegheny River and upper Genesee Rivers will see the greatest rises and will need to be monitored closely. Both of these rivers have headwaters in northern PA, which may see higher rainfall amounts.

Beyond the rivers, the rain will result in minor ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas this weekend.

Will maintain a mention in the HWO to highlight the small chance for flooding with this system.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 11 PM EDT Monday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for LOZ043. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for LOZ044-045.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/JLA NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA SHORT TERM . EAJ LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . Hitchcock/JLA MARINE . Hitchcock/JLA HYDROLOGY . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 0 mi48 min SSE 13 G 22 44°F 1014.3 hPa40°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 59 mi18 min ESE 9.9 G 13 45°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 61 mi48 min 44°F 1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY10 mi25 minVar 510.00 miOvercast44°F39°F83%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmE445E6E45SE6SE8SE76E8E7E7SE75E6SE86SE55
1 day agoNW9N7N4N6N7NW4N7N6NW8NW10NW83W5NW9NW8NW7NW7N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE4SE5SE444SE5SE33SE65SE55S10SW7S9S5W4NW12NW7NW5NW9NW9NW6NW9
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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