Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oswego, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 5:02PM Monday January 20, 2020 6:11 AM EST (11:11 UTC) Moonrise 3:41AMMoonset 1:27PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202001201600;;230144 Fzus51 Kbuf 200836 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 331 Am Est Mon Jan 20 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-201600- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 331 Am Est Mon Jan 20 2020
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely early, then a chance of snow showers through early afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Scattered snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Scattered flurries. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 38 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oswego, NY
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location: 43.47, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 200853 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 353 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold northwest flow will continue the potential for light lake effect snow showers through Tuesday southeast of the lakes. High pressure will move into the region providing a period of quiet weather and a gradual warm up by mid week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Lake effect/enhanced snow continues southeast of both lakes early this morning. Snowfall is light, but areal coverage is widespread across the area. A weak trough dropping south across the area has increased spatial coverage of the snow. Temperatures are in the mid to upper teens with even a few reading near 20 for areas downwind of the lakes, closer to the lake shore. Further inland and across the higher terrain temperatures drop to the low to mid teens.

Low level moisture over the lakes today, combined with cold temperatures aloft of around -15C at 850H is just enough for a lake response downwind of the lakes. Slowly increasing ridging from an area of high pressure approaching, equilibrium heights that are below 5kft across the area, and a lack of deeper synoptic moisture is preventing the snow from developing into anything more than light snow. Snow ratios with this snow will be pretty high, so any snow that does fall will be very light and fluffy, and with the nature of the snow, there may be around an inch of accumulation southeast of the lakes, especially southeast of Lake Ontario, where the northwest flow will have a bit more lake area to work with.

The lake response will slowly weaken through the day as a drier airmass works its way into the area. Clearing of cloud cover will occur through the day as moisture content decreases. Temperatures today will be around 10 degrees below normal with highs in the low 20s along the lake plains south of Lake Ontario and in the mid to upper teens elsewhere.

Tonight, a weak trough will approach from the northwest, providing an uptick in low level moisture across the area. Similar to this morning this will be just enough to provide and increase in the potential for a lake response east and then southeast of the lakes, as winds shift from the west to the northwest. Again, snow should be light with this renewed lake response with only minor accumulations. Temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid teens south of Lake Ontario and in the low single digits to around 0 across the North Country.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Tuesday, a progressive short wave passing across the region may provide enough additional lift and briefly deeper saturation to maintain a few lake-effect bands within northwest flow, mainly during the morning. Mesoscale models have a pretty muted signal, but the column is probably more moist than the models are resolving it, so will keep scattered snow shower activity through at least the first half of the day with only negligible amounts expected. Ridging builds in behind the wave Tuesday night with enough subsidence and beginning of warm air advection to diminish any linger snow shower activity.

High pressure building across the area will bring a period of quiet weather Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures in 30s on Wednesday, will rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s by Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. After a period of quiet weather, precipitation chances will increase Friday and on into the weekend, as a system passes just south of the area and a northern stream trough shifts into the region. With only a limited amount of cold air tapped from Canada, precipitation will fall as a mix of rain/snow during this period as temperatures oscillate through the 30s during the diurnal cycle. Based on model consensus in the track of this system, modest precipitation amounts look plausible with this system, especially in the Friday night to Saturday time frame as the upper low passes to the south and some degree of deformation sets up in the vicinity. The ECMWF remains alone in a track farther to the south which would mean a bit more colder air would sneak in allowing for a better chance of precipitation falling as all wet snow at times. However, this could all change given the temperature and track uncertainty.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Northwest wind light lake effect snow showers will continue through the night for all sites except ART as skies will clear there later tonight. Any snow showers and flurries will come to an end by midday Monday. When snow is occurring the rest of tonight, expect mainly MVFR cigs and vsby. Conditions will improve to mainly VFR Monday.

Outlook .

Monday night and Tuesday . Mainly VFR, but MVFR in leftover lake snow showers southeast of both lakes. Wednesday through Thursday . Generally VFR.

MARINE. Northwest winds will diminish through the morning with a weakening pressure gradient. Westerly winds will increase some starting this afternoon, especially on Lake Ontario as a weak trough crosses the area late today into tonight. Small craft conditions look likely for this afternoon into tonight, especially on Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . SW NEAR TERM . SW SHORT TERM . TMA LONG TERM . TMA AVIATION . Hitchcock/JLA/SW MARINE . Hitchcock/JLA/SW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 0 mi54 min 16°F 1026.2 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 59 mi72 min NNE 8.9 G 14 18°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 61 mi60 min 19°F 1026.9 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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W23
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SE10
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G21
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G26
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G31
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G18
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G23
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N17
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G12
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G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY10 mi18 minENE 49.00 miOvercast11°F3°F70%1027 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW15
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NW8N11NW10N11N9NW12NW11NW9NW11NW9N9NW9NW7
G16
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N9N8N5E4
1 day ago56SE8
G15
E7SE7SE7E8
G15
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SE10SE7--SE7SE6SE5S9
G14
SW8S8W13
G26
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G20
W15
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W11W13
2 days agoN7N5N6N8N8N8NW8NW7NW5NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm336

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.