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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 932 Am Est Wed Dec 6 2023
Rest of today..N winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain.

ANZ100 932 Am Est Wed Dec 6 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm generally quiet weather is expected on the waters for the rest of the week. A developing storm center impacts the waters Sunday night into Monday, but the strength of the winds remains somewhat uncertain at this time, with gale to storm force winds possible.

FXUS61 KGYX 061440 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 940 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

SYNOPSIS
A drying and cooling trend progresses into today as high pressure builds across New England. Temperatures moderate late week and into the weekend as the high moves offshore. A strong low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday, with wind and some rain impacts increasingly likely during this timeframe. High pressure returns toward the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
940 AM Update...The going forcast remains on track. Just updated T, Td, and sky cover in line with observations. Also, boosted PoPs in southern NH for another hour as radar and area webcams show snow showers and flurries continuing. Otherwise, clouds are clearing a bit ahead of schedule in many places and ongoing precipitation should be coming to an end over the next hour.

Update...
Have updated the forecast to increase pops across portions of New Hampshire for the near term portion of the forecast. Webcams and surface observation do show snow showers across southern New Hampshire. Expect scattered snow showers to continue for a few more hours this morning before slightly drier air enter the region. Made minor adjustments to temperatures, dew points and winds as well this morning.

Prev Disc...
High pressure will begin to build into the region today from the west. Nevertheless, plenty of cloud cover will start out the morning with moisture trapped underneath an inversion.
Cyclogenesis will take place today, however the storm track will be well off the coast to our south and east. The most sunshine will be over northernmost portions of the forecast area this afternoon as an upper level trough begins to exit east of our region.

It will be another seasonably chilly today. Afternoon highs will reach the 20s in the north to the 30s in the south.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
Decreasing clouds will continue to be the theme for tonight as a narrow ridge of high pressure builds towards the region from the west. There may be some Cu hung up in the mountains. It will be a chilly night with some radiational cooling. Overnight mins will drop to the single numbers in the north to the teens in the south.

A warm front will begin to approach the region from the west on Thursday. This will allow for additional afternoon clouds over western New Hampshire but otherwise a dry day. Afternoon high temperatures will once again reach the 20s in the north to the 30s in the south.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Overview: High pressure will remain in the area Thursday night through much of Saturday, which will allow for a stretch of tranquil weather conditions and gradually moderating temperatures. An area of low pressure is then progged to move across the Great Lakes region on Sunday before arriving in Quebec on Monday. This will send a series of fronts across the region and provide the greatest potential for widespread rain and perhaps gusty winds. High pressure then will return early next week.

Impacts: Gusty southerly winds are possible on Sunday and Sunday night, especially along the coast. Areawide gusty westerly winds are then possible on Monday behind a cold front. Minor coastal flooding/splash-over is also possible on Sunday night.

Forecast Details: High pressure will remain anchored over New England on Thursday night, which combined with mainly clear skies will set the stage for good radiational cooling conditions. As such, blended in MOS guidance for overnight lows, which brings northern locations at or a few degrees below zero with interior locations into the single digits and southern and coastal areas into the teens. Dry conditions and seasonably cool temperatures can be expected on Friday with highs into the 30s to 40s from north to south. Friday night will still be cold but likely not quite as cold due to more cloud cover, which should limit lows to the teens and 20s.

The weekend will start out nice for December with partly sunny skies on Saturday and warmer high temperatures into primarily the 40s and lows into the 20s/30s. Heights then will fall on Sunday ahead of a deep trough axis that will be approaching from the west with closed sfc low pressure in the Great Lakes region. This area of low pressure will send a warm front northward, placing our region within the warm sector as southerly winds gradually increase, mainly along the coast. Further inland, the amount of wind on Sunday and Sunday night will depend on temperature profiles as forecast soundings indicate the CAD may linger, resulting in an inversion, which would keep the strongest winds aloft.

High temperatures across southern NH will likely reach well into the 50s and perhaps south of the foothills away from the immediate coast with cooler readings across the foothills/mtns. A non-diurnal temperature trend is likely Sunday night as WAA continues and widespread rain overspreads the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows generally less than 50% probabilities for >=1" of QPF with the highest chances across south facing mountains but some of this will likely fall as snow across the highest terrain and therefore not currently concerned about flooding.

A cold front will sweep across the region early Monday, providing the greatest potential for widespread gusty winds as they become westerly. While scattered showers will remain possible, the bulk of the precipitation should be over. High pressure then will return on Tuesday through at least Wednesday with seasonable temperatures.

AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Short Term...Conditions gradually improve over the region. Areas of IFR conditions this morning will be replaced by VFR conditions later today, tonight and into Thursday.

Long Term...VFR conditions dominate with winds of generally less than 20 kts.

MARINE
Short Term...Winds may approach 25 kt by tonight as low pressure intensifies well to our east.

Long Term...Gale force southerly winds are possible Sunday night through early Monday before becoming westerly along with building seas.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Old Orchard Beach
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Wed -- 12:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:40 AM EST     7.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:40 AM EST     1.83 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:51 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:05 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:54 PM EST     7.87 feet High Tide
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Old Orchard Beach, Maine, Tide feet

Richmond Island
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Wed -- 12:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:37 AM EST     7.96 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:43 AM EST     1.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:51 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:04 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:51 PM EST     7.95 feet High Tide
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Richmond Island, Maine, Tide feet

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