Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Old Orchard Beach, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:07PM Monday December 9, 2019 9:52 PM EST (02:52 UTC) Moonrise 3:46PMMoonset 5:03AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 647 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.gale warning in effect until 4 am est Tuesday...
Tonight..S winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain likely in the evening, then rain and snow likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Showers likely.
ANZ100 647 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Widespread rain continues tonight as low pressure moves into quebec. South southwest winds continue to increase overnight with gales and low end storms likely. Winds and seas gradually diminish through Tuesday night. Some light snow is possible over the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before clearing. Thereafter, a potentially potent low pressure system will approach Friday and may affect the waters over the weekend. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Orchard Beach, ME
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location: 43.5, -70.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 092351 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 651 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Rain expected to continue overnight along with very mild temperatures for this time of year. Readings overnight will be 25 to 30 degrees above normal. Rain winds down around sunrise but showery weather will continue through the day Tuesday. Temperatures will remain in the 40s and 50s early Tuesday before a cold front crosses the area and brings us back to near or below normal. Some light snow will skirt the coast Tuesday night, but most likely remains offshore enough to bring only around an inch to coastal areas. An active weather pattern looks to continue for late week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. 650 PM . The arrival of the low level jet has allowed better mixing near the sfc and allowed temps to rise and fog to thin out, thus the dense fog adv was allowed to expire. Overall, no real changes to overnight forecast, ans temps will likely stay fairly steady around 50 in the coastal areas, and will gradually rise overnight in inland areas, with most places making to the mid-upper 40s. After another round of steady rain this evening, will see precip become more showery after midnight and toward morning.

Previously . Otherwise periods of rain will continue tonight in several waves. This first is moving NEwd out of the forecast area now . with another one or two expected tonight with moderate rain. Still expecting around 0.5 to 1 inch QPF . locally higher amounts Midcoast and upslope areas of the Whites . and around an inch snow melt. This will lead to sharp rises on area rivers and streams . but water levels were not particularly high to begin with and forecasts generally fall short of action stage at most locations. See the hydro section for more information.

As for winds tonight . still not seeing a big potential for widespread strong gusts . even for Midcoast. The advisory remains in place mainly for coastal areas where the surface warm front will be well onshore. Best window for winds will be from around 8 PM until 2 or 3 AM.

Will also see very warm temps overnight for this time of year. Lows will be 25 to 30 degree above normal . with possible record warm low temps set across much of the area.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Will keep showery wx going mainly in the higher terrain Tue . but with dry slot overhead any precip will be lighter and scattered in nature. Will see early mixing get many coastal areas to rise a few degrees into the low to mid 50s before the cold front arrives. Interior zones will likely stay steady in the morning before falling. Stayed mainly with a heavy blend of raw 2 m temps overnight with CAA keeping the boundary layer mixed.

The other question is snowfall Tue night. A S/WV trof will approach and a weak wave will be induced on the low level baroclinic zone. It will be pretty far offshore and with dry air moving in plus downsloping NW flow we have a bit working against us I am leaning on the drier side of guidance. but keeping at least a chance to high chance PoP for coastal zones and far Srn NH. Could see around an inch or two accumulation if things break right. I adjusted PoP so as to sharpen the transition from likely PoP offshore to chance PoP over land.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Looking at the week ahead we'll spend much of it in a now quite familiar long wave pattern. A ridge of high pressure continues to remain build up the west coast into the Alaska/Yukon border. This has set it up for the cold polar air to drop southwards across Hudson bay and into the Great Lakes. In Northern New England we continue to sit on the edge of this upper level cold pool, with short waves pushing us onto the colder side and then moving us back onto the temperature gradient/storm track on the warmer side. These minor changes in the upper level flow are what will guide our sensible weather for the next week.

Wednesday a front will be lingering just offshore with some light snow extending NWard into the cold air. Expect a sharp cut off on the backside for the precipitation shield as the colder drier air moves into the region. With this in mind have decreased the QPF amounts and the consensus placement appears to be leaning offshore with just some light snow along the coast.

Colder air filters into the region from Wednesday night into Thursday. We'll see decreasing temperatures throughout this time period. As high pressure builds in expect Thursday night to be the coldest night as high pressure crests over Maine. For both Wednesday and Thursday nights have leaned on the MOS guidance for temperatures. On Thursday this puts the mountain valleys below zero.

Heading into the weekend another low begins to develop over the southeast US. This low will move northwards along the 500 trough into the northeast. Lots of spread amongst the low placement with this system. Several of the deterministic models would keep us on a west track bringing us into the warm sector and all rain. However a look at the ensemble spread would hint at two other possibilities to consider. First that the surface low could move further east - paralleling the Maine coast- which would bring us closer into a snow/sleet mix scenario. To add to the mixed precipitation potential the departing cold high pressure may aid in setting up surface temperatures to remain colder - at least through the first part of the system. This too would lead to a sleet/freezing rain mix. While all of these options are on the table, the confidence is low enough that have stuck with a rain or snow wording for this forecast cycle.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Short Term /Through Tuesday/ . Widespread LIFR in low CIGs and areas of FG. VIS is improving as the surface warm front moves into the area . but CIGs remain low. That will be the rule thru the overnight for the majority of the area. One pocket of VFR or MVFR will be HIE . where downsloping winds will keep CIGs higher Eventually as flow turns more Wly. HIE will see MVFR CIGs become more common. May see some minor improvement by morning across Srn NH terminals. LLWS continues thru the night and will gradually diminish as LLJ moves NEwd before dawn. Expect that until cold front sweeps thru the afternoon that MVFR CIGs remain entrenched Very low confidence on -SN Tue night. so I expect VFR or MVFR to prevail along the coast and Srn NH.

Long Term . A front draped off shore on Wednesday will keep some high to mid level clouds into the coast, with MVFR SHSN possible for RKD, PWM and PSM. High pressure builds in for Wednesday night into THursday with VFR and cold temperatures holding fast in the valleys. Another low will move up the coast on Friday into Saturday with widespread IFR in Rain or snow expected.

MARINE. Short Term /Through Tuesday/ . No change to marine headlines. Strengthening LLJ is expected tonight and widespread gales are likely with some areas of low end storms N of Cape Elizabeth. It should be a relatively short window of strongest winds . with the LLJ lifting N of the waters by sunrise. The trend will be down after that point . with SCA conditions lingering thru at least Tue night.

Long Term . A front will sit over the coastal waters on Wednesday with showers moving through the region. Northwesterly flow will take hold on the cold side of the front. High pressure builds in for Thursday with calming winds and seas. The next system will move through for the start of the weekend.

HYDROLOGY. Warm temperatures combined with rain will result in runoff and modest rises on area rivers. Total QPF of 0.5-1.25" will fall across the area with the highest amounts in the south along the coast. NOHRSC analysis shows the highest Snow Water Equivalent of 2-3 inches across southern New Hampshire. While temperatures in the 50s will likely result in substantial snow melt, the snowpack started the day with density running near 20% so a fair portion of the initial warming will go towards compacting the existing snow. Bottom line is while snow loss is expected, it is unlikely the entire snowpack will go over to runoff which will spare most location from flooding. The most likely areas for flooding include southern New Hampshire with the Warner River at Davisville and the Suncook at North Chichester expected to near action stage. Across the northern mountains, the snow density is lower, as are the QPF amounts and the combination will likely result in most of the rain being absorbed into the snowpack with low chance of any of the rivers meeting action stage.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ022-027-028. NH . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ153-154. Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ150>152.

SYNOPSIS . NEAR TERM . Cempa/Legro SHORT TERM . Legro LONG TERM . Curtis AVIATION . Curtis/Legro MARINE . Curtis/Legro HYDROLOGY .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 13 mi62 min S 21 G 25 51°F 46°F8 ft1005.7 hPa (-3.7)51°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 13 mi58 min 50°F 42°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 14 mi52 min S 8 47°F 47°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 16 mi52 min SSW 8.9 G 12 50°F 43°F1006.5 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 22 mi108 min S 19 G 23 49°F 8 ft1007 hPa
CMLN3 34 mi168 min 12
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 39 mi67 min S 2.9 51°F 1007 hPa51°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 39 mi52 min S 21 G 21 50°F 1006 hPa (-3.9)50°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME12 mi61 minS 12 G 191.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist52°F48°F86%1006.6 hPa
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME18 mi56 minS 54.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist50°F50°F100%1006.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWM

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW4CalmW5CalmCalmCalmW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4S6SW7SW4S6S6SW5S9S8SW10
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2 days agoN4CalmNW6CalmW3CalmNW6NW5CalmW3CalmW5NW7NW5N7NW8NW3N4NW7NW8NW5NW6W4NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Old Orchard Beach, Maine
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Old Orchard Beach
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Mon -- 02:24 AM EST     1.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:03 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:46 AM EST     9.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:00 PM EST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:04 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:15 PM EST     8.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.621.11.22.23.95.97.78.898.36.74.52.410.50.92.34.36.27.68.38.16.9

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond Island, Maine
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Richmond Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:27 AM EST     1.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:02 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:43 AM EST     9.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:03 PM EST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:04 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:12 PM EST     8.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.621.21.22.13.967.88.99.18.46.74.52.410.50.92.34.36.37.88.48.16.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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