Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Orchard Beach, ME

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Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday July 18, 2019 2:36 AM EDT (06:36 UTC) Moonrise 9:40PMMoonset 6:43AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 1005 Pm Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms late this evening. Patchy fog with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with a few gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Some tstms may produce gusty winds.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 1005 Pm Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A cold front will stall over southern new england on Thursday as high pressure builds in from the north. High pressure will slide off to the east Thursday afternoon. A warm front will lift northeast through the region Thursday night and Friday. A cold front will approach from the north on Saturday and will slowly drop south through Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure will gradually build in from the west Monday through Tuesday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Orchard Beach, ME
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location: 43.5, -70.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 180208
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
1008 pm edt Wed jul 17 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will slowly drop south through the region this
evening with showers and thunderstorms waning as the front
makes its way into southern new england. High pressure moves
across northern maine on Thursday. A warm front will bring a hot
and humid air mass into new england Thursday night into Friday.

The heat will be most intense on Saturday. A cold front moves
in Saturday night into Sunday with showers and thunderstorms
possible as the front gradually pushes the hot and humid air
mass away. Expect more comfortable temperatures and humidity
next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
1010 pm update... Little change to the going forecast at this
time. Cold front continues to drop southward across the forecast
area at this time with only isolated showers. Drier air will
continue to filter southward into the region overnight.

630 pm update... Have updated the forecast, mainly for pops, wx,
and temperatures based on latest trends in observational data. A
cold front continues to drop southward out of northern vt and
adjacent northern nh and western me. This front is accompanied
by scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. These should
remain on the weaker side as they drop southward through about
midnight. Thereafter, all areas should do dry as cooler and
drier high pressure moves in.

Previously...

showers and thunderstorms will be dropping south ahead of a
cold front into the mountains of maine and new hampshire through
early evening hours. At the same time an area of rain pushing
in from the west will dampen southern new hampshire and
southwest maine through this evening. Expect thunderstorms to
generally remain south of the border in the better instability
and heating but can't rule out and isolated rumble of thunder in
far south new hampshire. Main concern this evening will be high
pwat's and the potential for flooding in southern new
hampshire. Cells are moving along at a fairly good pace but the
situation will be monitored for training cells which may result
in localized flooding. Expect showers and thunderstorms to push
south of the forecast area by late evening and will see
clearing in far northeast zones after midnight. Lows will range
from the mid 50s north to the mid 60s south.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
High pressure will build in from the north on Thursday and
increasing onshore flow will likely bring stratus into southern
new hampshire and southwest maine around daybreak on Thursday.

Moist onshore flow will keep clouds in southwest zones through
the day and into Thursday night. Along with the ocean stratus,
showers in the vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary across
southern new england may brush southern new hampshire at times.

Warmest temperatures will be found in northeast zones where the
most Sun will be seen with highs reaching the mid 70s to near
80. Farther to the southwest temperatures will only get into the
lower to mid 70s.

A warm front will push into the region from the southwest
Thursday night. Boundary layer winds will swing into the
southwest after midnight and should push ocean stratus off to
the north and east by morning. Lows will range from the mid 50s
to near 60.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Upper air flow pattern across north america will feature a
mostly flat topped subtropical ridge over the southeastern
united states while waves move quickly along in the fast flow
between this ridge and a trough over hudson bay. A hot and humid
air mass building on the northern periphery of the subtropical
ridge will get advected eastward into our area this weekend.

Later this weekend and into next week the western portion of the
ridge builds northward allowing the hudson bay low to shift
southeastward and cut off the heat and humidity in our area
shortly after it began.

The hot and humid air mass over the ohio and mississippi valley
regions will move eastward and into new england on Friday. We
start the day with a southerly flow, though, which will keep
some cooler maritime influences for much of maine where
temperatures will only top out in the low 80s. But a southwest
to westerly flow over new hampshire will allow for better mixing
and temperatures rise into the upper 80s and low 90s with
increasing humidity. A few showers and storms could form
especially in northern areas and perhaps aided by higher
terrain. The primary lifting mechanism will be a trough moving
through quebec with its axis moving through our area Sunday
night, so the timing will not be optimal to take advantage of
daytime heating of the newly humid air mass. However, the
passage of the trough will shift winds to the west for all areas
by Saturday morning allowing the heat and humidity to spread to
the rest of the area including previously protected areas of
maine.

The forecast for Saturday is what has drawn a lot of the
attention as models have been consistently forecasting a day of
extreme heat and high humidity. While the previous forecast
represents the worst case scenario... An optimal combination of
upper 90s to near 100 degree heat and dewpoints in the mid
70s... There are still many factors which could work against
this occurring:
first, with a humid air mass it takes a good deal more solar
heating to heat the air and achieve extreme temperatures.

Temperatures near 100 would be tough to achieve from daytime
heating alone.

Second, showers and thunderstorms developing in a humid air mass
would add cloud cover which would further limit daytime heating.

Although best guess right now is that thunderstorms on Saturday
are best favored to our west where a fast moving shortwave
trough exists, it is not out of the question that this trough
arrives a bit quicker and provides a better chance to make use
of the instability from our humid air mass.

Third, a subsidence inversion shifting from the 700 to 850 mb
level will come within range of boundary layer heating. Within
this inversion much drier air exists. If we heat up strong
enough to tap into this inversion, then the drier air will be
mixing down as well which will cut strongly into the humidity.

However, mixing into this inversion will also allow for greater
total heating potential and with the drier air stronger heating
can occur.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement this afternoon on
executing the third scenario: that we will tap into the
subsidence inversion and draw down much drier air in the
afternoon on Saturday. Both models forecast dewpoints dropping
into the upper 50s during peak heating... A far cry from the mid
70s which might otherwise be the case. With the dewpoint
playing a crucial role in the heat index, this drier air may
lead to only a minor heat index factor if at all.

With this forecast we decided to come to a bit of a compromise
between the idea of heating up so hot that we mix down the dry
air and the idea of being slightly less hot but much more humid.

The result is a forecast of high temperatures broadly in the mid
to upper 90s with dewpoints falling into the mid to upper 60s in
the afternoon. This pulls the maximum heat index values into the
100 to 105 degree range for the worst areas which would be in
southeastern new hampshire and southwest maine. This also falls
just short of excessive heat warning criteria. In reality we
may see Saturday start off as hot and very humid but as the
temperature warms up even more the humidity drops, only to
increase again in the evening.

A shortwave trough moving quickly through the flow may bring
some remnant showers and storms from our west into our area
Saturday night. If the timing is a bit quicker these could take
advantage of the daily maximum in instability and be more likely
to produce gusty winds. Moving through at night would call for
less overall coverage of storms and perhaps less of a chance of
severe thunderstorms. Another shortwave trough moves across on
Sunday and this time drags a cold front into the area. Thus it
will be another hot one on Sunday with heat and humidity still
at levels that might require an advisory. Would not be able to
rule out severe thunderstorms either as the hot and humid air
mass provides plenty of instability and wind flow aloft
increases with the arrival of the trough.

Expect gradually cooler and much less humid air for next week.

With the hudson bay low shifting southeast we will get a wind
flow straight out of the arctic which will bring in the pleasant
feeling drier air. However, there's still a bit of uncertainty
on how quickly this arrives. GFS and cmc hold the frontal zone
over our area on Monday with more showers and thunderstorms
while the ECMWF moves it to our south ending the rain chances
and bringing in the drier air. It seems assured that by Tuesday
we will all be enjoying the drier air with our area largely
within the broader upper trough into midweek.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
Short term...VFR tonight with areas of MVFR ifr ceilings
developing in southern new hampshire and southwest maine after
midnight and persisting through Thursday. Improving toVFR after
midnight Thursday night.

Long term... Should see mostlyVFR conditions Friday and
Saturday, though there's a chance of thunderstorms each
afternoon mainly in northern areas. A cold front moves into the
area on Sunday with more showers and thunderstorms possible.

These could linger into Monday until the front finally pushes
through.

Marine
Short term... No flags at this time as high pressure builds
across the waters late tonight and Wednesday. However, a period
of northerly 25 kt gusts is possible after midnight tonight
into early Wednesday morning as cold front drops south across
the waters. No SCA at this time due to low confidence.

Long term... Southerly flow expected on Friday ahead of a warm
front arriving from the west. Flow shifts to the west behind the
warm front on Saturday. A cold front drops in from the norther
Sunday into Monday and slowly crosses the gulf of maine through
Monday. Despite all of these features, the pressure gradient
will be rather light and keep winds at or below advisory levels.

Equipment
The concord, nh ASOS remains out of service. At this time a
return to service date is unknown. During the outage, tafs will
continue to be issued for concord without amendments scheduled.

Climate data for concord will also be affected, although backup
sources may be used to fill in data after the fact.

The sugarloaf nwr transmitter is off the air until further
notice. This will be an extended outage as the tower, which was
severely damaged in a winter storm, is rebuilt.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 13 mi47 min N 7.8 G 7.8 63°F 61°F2 ft1011.8 hPa (+0.6)63°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 13 mi67 min 69°F 59°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 14 mi97 min W 1 71°F 70°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 16 mi67 min E 2.9 G 4.1 69°F 56°F1012.6 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 22 mi93 min SW 5.8 G 5.8 67°F 65°F1 ft1011.9 hPa
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 39 mi112 min Calm 73°F 1012 hPa72°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 39 mi37 min W 6 G 6 72°F 1011.7 hPa (+0.0)72°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME12 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair71°F66°F87%1012.9 hPa
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME18 mi41 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist68°F66°F96%1013 hPa

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Orchard Beach, Maine
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Old Orchard Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:36 AM EDT     9.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:14 PM EDT     8.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:57 PM EDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.69.78.76.74.21.90.4-0.10.62.24.46.47.98.68.3752.91.511.535.27.3

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond Island, Maine
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Richmond Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:33 AM EDT     9.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:57 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:11 PM EDT     8.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 PM EDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.79.88.86.74.220.4-0.10.52.24.46.58.18.78.47531.511.535.27.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.