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FXUS65 KPIH 070944 AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 244 PM MST Wed Dec 6 2023

SHORT TERM
Today through Friday night. Early morning radar imagery was showing a broad swath of enhanced precipitation working east through the Snake River Plain toward the Wyoming border with additional activity to the west near Boise. Snow levels across the region appeared to be running between 6200 and 6500 feet. Numerical models have much of the precipitation activity working into the eastern mountains by this afternoon with lowering snow levels working from west to east across the region behind the main precipitation band accompanying the first passing short-wave. We get a very short reprieve late this afternoon and early this evening before the second wave begins to rotate into the region tonight.
Here, snow levels should remain low enough for snow in most regions through the night. This second system rotates east of the region by Friday evening. With the first short-wave and elevated snow levels, we have maintained the Winter Weather Advisories for the central and eastern mountains with the main impacts being at higher elevations.
We have also issued a second round of Winter Weather Advisories for tonight and Friday commensurate with the passage of the second storm system and lower snow levels. Embedded in this mess we see elevated winds across the Snake Plain and Arco Desert region today with the first system and then the Magic Valley and Southern Mountains with the second system. Snow accumulations in the Upper and Lower Snake River Plain have moderated with todays forecast for Friday primarily due to a less developed convergence process but accumulations are still running about 1 to 3 inches along and east of the Interstate 15 corridor. Daytime temperatures should cool today into Friday with the overnight low going into Saturday morning in the wake of the exiting storm system plunging into the teens in most areas and even the negative single digits in the Stanley Basin. Huston

LONG TERM
Saturday through next Thursday. Saturday will be a quiet period in between systems as weak ridging is established over the region. It will be the coldest day of the extended, with highs in the upper-20s to low-30s across the valleys and teens in the mountains. Overnight lows throughout the next several days will generally range the teens to low 20s across the valleys and single digits in the mountains. Models continue to feature multiple weak, glancing shortwaves early next week. We will begin to see snow moving into Central Idaho prior to midnight Sunday morning, reaching the eastern mountains before sunrise Sunday. Snow will gradually subside late Monday and 48-hour snow accumulations look to be very modest. Current forecast totals through Monday evening is up to 5 inches above 7,000 feet and therefore primarily over the Sawtooths, Centennials, Big Holes, Caribou Range, Blackfoot Mtns., and Marsh/Albion Highlands. Only a Trace to an inch is expected elsewhere. National Blend probabilities decrease dramatically when comparing likelihood of 2" versus 4", although minimal impacts are expected regardless considering accumulations will be limited to our mountains and light even still. Neither of these waves look to pack too much wind as well, outside of being breezy. Although models are handling the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe a bit differently, they agree on high pressure regaining control by at least Wednesday. This means a quiet end to the work week before the next system looks to arrive next weekend. Cropp

AVIATION
Precipitation type remains questionable at KPIH and KIDA throughout the morning hours as cold air filters into the region and snow levels begin to fall. By the time snow levels drop solidly to valley floors, precipitation will be showery at best as this first round shifts eastward out of the area. Therefore, the possibility exists that the aforementioned terminals will not observe any snow prior to this evening when the next push arrives. Otherwise, we have forecast strictly rain at KBYI and snow at KSUN and KDIJ. Have also forecast degradation in CIG to MVFR/IFR and VIS to IFR during periods of -SN. Expect degraded conditions during any potential periods of mixed precipitation at KPIH and KIDA. Winds are the other concern as they continue to increase through the early afternoon and then slowly taper off. Expect westerly winds with gusts up to 40 KTs outside of KSUN and KDIJ, where 20 to 30 KT gusts are forecast.
Cropp

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for IDZ052>054.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM MST Friday for IDZ055>057.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Friday for IDZ056-058.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for IDZ060-063- 064-066.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 PM MST Friday for IDZ060-062>066.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM MST Friday for IDZ071>074.

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