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FXUS65 KPIH 192042 AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 242 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

SHORT TERM
Today and Monday.
Looking at current satellite imagery there is a cold front/trough over eastern Wyoming and further upstream another trough/system just off the coast of Oregon/Washington.

A cold front moved through our area earlier this morning leaving breezy to moderate winds this afternoon with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Expect winds to continue to slowly back off this afternoon.
The wind advisory for the Arco desert, Upper Snake plain, and Lower Snake plain is still in effect until 6 pm this evening.
Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening mainly along the Montana Divide. Little accumulation of precipitation is expected.

Tomorrow morning look for cooler temperatures, low to mid 30s, for most locations. A frost advisory is in effect for tomorrow morning from 3 am to 9 am for all our frost/freeze zones, including Shoshone, Eastern Magic Valley, Arco desert, and the Upper/Lower Snake plain. There is a 50 to 60 percent chance of dropping to 32 degrees for some areas in the Shoshone area/zone and a 40 to 50 percent chance of temperatures dropping to 32 degrees in the Upper Snake plain. With another trough/system moving over the area tomorrow, look for scattered to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms for the southern Central mountain, southern Big Lost range, and southern Lemhi range. Look for 3 to 6 inches of snow for these mountain areas, generally above 5500 to 6000 feet. Some areas in Pioneer mountains could see up to 9 inches of snow. Expect isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms for most of the rest of our area on Monday. Our southern regions along the Utah border will see very limited showers/thunderstorms and resulting precipitation, generally less than 0.02 inches.

Temperatures will be 8 to 12 degrees below normal today and Monday.
TW

LONG TERM
Temperatures fall into the 20s and 30s Thursday morning, so we may need some more frost/freeze products and we will see snow in the mountains with a 20 to 40 percent chance of at least 2 inches of snow for areas above 7500 ft. Thursday will be the coolest day of the week with highs in the 50s through the Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley while the higher elevation areas struggle to even reach the 50 degree mark. The wind will continue to gust between 25 to 35 mph each afternoon from Thursday through the weekend, too. We will begin to gradually warm after Thursday with highs returning to the 50s and 60s for most on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. We will even see a 50 to 70 percent chance of hitting 70 degrees on Saturday in the Eastern Magic Valley and Snake Plain. During the Friday through Sunday timeframe, models aren't quite in agreement on the placement, track, and strength of another system heading our way, so we will keep in a general 20 percent chance for showers Friday and about a 30 to 40 percent chance on Saturday and Sunday.
AMM

AVIATION
18Z Sunday through 18Z Monday.
The wind will continue to be the biggest impact at all terminals today, but especially at BYI, PIH, and IDA where gusts will remain in the 25 to 35 kt range through the evening. At SUN and DIJ, gusts will be closer to the 20 to 25 kt range. Winds will be much lighter after midnight and gusts remain below 25 kts on Monday. Cloud cover will begin to increase tonight through Monday as our next system arrives, though conditions are expected to remain VFR. Showers return to the forecast on Monday, too, with the HRRR showing a blanket 20 to 40 percent chance of thunder at all sites on Monday with a bullseye of 40 to 50 percent chance at SUN.
AMM

HYDROLOGY
A flood warning continues for the Portneuf river in Pocatello. A flood advisory continues along the Portneuf river at Topaz. Water levels are slowly receding for the Portneuf river due to the snowpack diminishing and slightly overall cooler temperatures. River levels for most other big rivers look to remain the same this week, if not slightly less, due to overall slightly cooler temperatures expected this week. However, warmer temperatures, perhaps the warmest of the year, look to return the week of May 27th, which should bring increased runoff for most other big rivers.
TW

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Monday for IDZ051>055.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for IDZ052>054.

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