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FXUS65 KPIH 100830 AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 130 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2023

SHORT TERM
Today through Monday night. Early morning satellite and radar imagery showed a broad swath of overrunning moisture spilling over a shallow ridge positioned over the region and into Washington, Oregon and the Idaho Panhandle. Numerical models continue to show this activity sinking south into the CNTRL and NE mountains today resulting in some decent low end Advisory level snowfall across the higher elevations of the CNTRL and ERN mountains generally above 7500 ft MSL. Raynolds, Targhee, and Pine Creek Passes are expected to see the largest accumulations with about 4 inches through midnight tonight. An embedded short-wave disturbance shifts into the Oregon coast this evening effectively pinching off the main moisture feed across the NRN mountains and re-targeting it from Fairfield to Blackfoot Monday morning. The National Blend of Models continues to downplay the precipitation potential while the operational NAM12 was targeting a fairly impactful precipitation bullseye extending from Blackfoot to Palisades through Monday morning. We nudged the going forecast toward a blend of the operational models here but not as drastic as the NAM12.
Accumulations along Interstate 15 from Blackfoot to Idaho Falls run about 1 to 2 inches while the Caribou Highlands run up towards the lower end of the Advisory range for this second impulse Monday. We will allow the day-shift another look at the models to see if some sort of consolidation occurs one way or another. Precipitation chances begin to wane Monday night as the short-wave disturbance clears to the east and secondary energy dropping into Boise out of the north begins to close off a weak and somewhat dry low pressure system over the SW Idaho mountains (Owyhee's). With the increasing west flow aloft we should see moderating temperatures today and Monday. Huston

LONG TERM
Tuesday through next Sunday. Come Tuesday morning, snow will have come to a close save for any lingering showery activity across our southern and eastern mountains. Models continue to show a cut off low shifting south into Nevada/Utah with the ridge overhead reinforcing from the west mid-week. They then feature a shortwave passing to our north and flattening the ridge a bit late week.
Although its exact track has been depicted differently from run to run, models consistently keep the disturbance far enough north that we are not expecting any impacts from it at this time. In fact, the National Blend continues to trend even drier in the latest runs for the Thursday-Friday timeframe and now effectively carries zero PoPs for the entire remainder of the extended period. Temperatures will remain stable throughout the week. Daytime highs will generally run in the 30s across the valleys and 20s in the mountains. Overnight lows will range the teens to 20s across the valleys and single digits to teens in the mountains. Cropp

AVIATION
The terminal with the greatest potential for observing snow today is KDIJ, with snow expected to begin around 12Z this morning. Anticipating prolonged IFR conditions at KDIJ today and Monday. Otherwise, have maintained predominately VCSH throughout today at all terminals before more widespread snow arrives overnight tonight and Monday. Hi-resolution models feature an enhanced band of snow setting up across KPIH and KIDA beginning between 9Z and 12Z Monday morning, which will likely signify a period of IFR CIGs/VIS at these two terminals. Expect southerly winds to be breezy today at KPIH, KIDA, and KBYI, with gusts 15 to 25 KTs. Cropp

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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