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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hailey, ID

June 25, 2024 1:30 PM MDT (19:30 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 9:21 PM
Moonrise 11:30 PM   Moonset 8:48 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hailey, ID
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Area Discussion for - Pocatello, ID
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111 FXUS65 KPIH 250905 AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 305 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

SHORT TERM
Today through Wednesday Night.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a H5 ridge axis beginning to shift east into Idaho as moisture across the SW CONUS begins to lift NE across the NRN Great Basin. As a result, hot, dry, and breezy conditions will continue as we remain under the influence of a broad H5 ridge of high pressure. High temperatures today will be 3-6 degrees warmer than Monday with highs reaching the mid 80s to mid 90s, which is around 10-15 degrees above normal for late June. Associated with that moisture working overtop this ridge feature, this will help to introduce a 5-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms south of the Snake Plain this afternoon and evening with those chances increasing regionwide for Wednesday to 20-40% as a warm front lifts NE out of the Great Basin.

This warm front is associated with an approaching H5 low in the NE Pacific which is expected to move onshore late Wednesday into Thursday to the PacNW. While the bulk of shower/storm activity today will center around virga and very isolated chances further south, stronger storms will be possible on Wednesday as that aforementioned warm front works through our region throughout the day. The latest 0Z HRRR model guidance shows 400-800 J/kg of SBCAPE, 25-35 kt 0-6 km shear, and 7-8 degree/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. This convective environment will support stronger storms being able to produce wind gusts in excess of 40-50 mph, brief heavy rain, and small hail. Given PWATs climbing up to around 0.75-1.00" on Wednesday, we may see some localized heavy rain at times but conditions overall will remain predominantly dry outside of any convection. The latest timing for stronger storms will center around 2-10 PM MDT with isolated to scattered showers and storms expected outside that timeframe, of which will shift NE for Thursday as a cold front passes through SRN Idaho.

Given increased cloud cover on Wednesday, highs will be slightly cooler than Tuesday, but still in the 80s to low 90s. Synoptic winds and sufficient daytime mixing with support continued breezy conditions peaking each afternoon, with wind gusts both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon up to around 25-45 mph. These winds will be slightly less than what we saw on Monday. MacKay

LONG TERM
Thursday through next Tuesday.
With a H5 low centered over Washington and NRN Idaho for Thursday morning, this will drive a cold front across SRN Idaho on Thursday which will lead to strong winds and a 20-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the ERN CNTRL Mountains, Upper Snake Plain, and ERN/SRN Highlands. Some stronger storms will also be possible Thursday with an emphasis on stronger storms producing strong outflow winds. As soon as the sun rises on Thursday, expect strong daytime mixing to ramp winds up quickly, with winds peaking during the afternoon hours around 25-40 mph with gusts to 40-65 mph. As a result, WIND ADVISORIES will likely be needed with the potential for HIGH WIND WARNINGS across the Upper Snake Plain and Arco/Mud Lake Desert region. In that area, the NBM shows a 40-60% chance of wind gusts in excess of 55 mph which would be more in line with warning criteria for Thursday.

As that cold front progresses east into Wyoming Thursday night, dry conditions will return regionwide as a colder, drier air mass settles in place for Friday. As a results, highs on Thursday and Friday will drop down to the 70s to low 80s which is near normal to slightly below for late June. While we may see a 5-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms around Island Park and Yellowstone NP on Friday, look for dry conditions to continue into the start of the weekend as a H5 ridge of high pressure quickly fills in behind Thursday`s exiting trough. For Saturday, highs will climb around 8- 12 degrees into the 80s to low 90s as breezy winds persist with gusts both Friday and Saturday afternoon around 25-40 mph.

For Sunday, the latest ECMWF/EPS and GFS/GEFS models show a secondary Pacific trough moving onshore which will support a return to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms into Monday. Winds will also see an increase for Sunday and Monday given this trough passage with gusts peaking around 40-55 mph.
Behind that second system, drier, cooler, and zonal flow will keep temperatures near normal through Tuesday ahead of warming temperatures through Independence Day as dry conditions persist.
MacKay

AVIATION
For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday.
Predominant VFR and dry conditions will continue for Tuesday under mostly clear skies as moisture begins to lift north out of the Great Basin this afternoon and evening. This will support around a 5-15% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms south of the Snake River Plain later today, with those chances increasing to 20-40% regionwide on Wednesday as a warm front lifts NE. Breezy winds will also continue through Wednesday given with winds peaking each afternoon around 10-20 kts with gusts to 20-30 kts. MacKay

FIRE WEATHER
Seasonably warm and very dry conditions will continue today as moisture begins to lift NE out of the Great Basin, associated with an approaching H5 trough in the NE Pacific. This will help to introduce a 5-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms (primarily virga) south of the Snake Plain today with those chances increasing to a 20-40% chance regionwide on Wednesday as a warm front lifts NE. Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday with wind gusts in excess of 40-50 mph, heavy rain, and small hail possible. Breezy winds will continue each day given strong daytime mixing with winds peaking on Thursday as a cold front moves through SRN Idaho. Cooler conditions are then expected on Thursday and Friday before a ridge of high pressure moves back in for Saturday. A secondary Pacific trough then remains on track to move in Sunday/Monday with another cold front and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Behind that second system, drier, cooler, and zonal flow will keep temperatures near normal through Tuesday ahead of warming temperatures through Independence Day as dry conditions persist. MacKay

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSUN FRIEDMAN MEMORIAL,ID 2 sm35 minS 1010 smClear84°F41°F22%30.14
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Pocatello/Idaho Falls, ID,




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