Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 8:54 PM Moonrise 11:05 AM   Moonset 1:37 AM

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FXUS65 KPIH 142024 AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 224 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

SHORT TERM
Tonight and Wednesday Another upper level trough is sweeping through the region this afternoon bringing additional shower and thunderstorm development to eastern Idaho. Some small hail and gusty winds around 40 mph have been observed thus far and this SHOULD be the norm for the remainder of the day. We've been dealing with more cloud cover and cooler temperatures today so instability is a bit less compared to yesterday. Nevertheless, will continue to monitor storms throughout the day for any severe potential. Hi-res CAMs drop precip chances off quickly later this evening as the trough continues to push to the east and ridging builds over the region once again. Things should be pretty quiet across the area tomorrow. Can't rule out a very isolated shower in the eastern highlands but it appears most, if not everyone, will be dry.
Temperatures in the valleys should climb into the lower 70s once again tomorrow with 60s expected in the high country. McKaughan

LONG TERM
Thu through next Tue night Thu/Thu night now appear dry with northwesterly upper level wind during the day, switching to west and west southwest by late night. This is in response to a fairly strong trough approaching from the northwest, which starts Fri morning in extreme NW WA in the operational deterministic GFS model. However, the pattern is in the minority when looking at clusters, about 33 percent of the constituents having a similar pattern, while the other 67 percent are dry. If the GFS pans out, it could be a very windy and stormy Fri afternoon. Sat and Sun in the clusters is a zonal flow or weak troughing for a continued chance of precipitation, mainly in the northern half of the forecast area. A more significant trough arrives for Mon and is shown in all but 16 percent of the model solutions available to the cluster analysis. Similar for Tue, although the wet probability is around 75 percent and 25 percent dry pattern. Messick



AVIATION
Showers and thunderstorms have moved through the region this afternoon producing some brief gusty winds and lower CIGs at eastern Idaho terminals. Will maintain VCTS at KPIH, KIDA and KDIJ into the early evening but convective potential should quickly diminish later this evening. Things look dry overnight and into the day Wednesday with VFR prevailing. Winds will be gusty for a few more hours this afternoon but will diminish overnight and should stay around 10 kts or less throughout the day tomorrow. McKaughan

HYDROLOGY
Flood warnings continue for the Portneuf River in Pocatello and the Blackfoot River near Shelley. A flood advisory continues along the Portneuf River at Topaz. Water levels are slowly expected to recede over the upcoming week along all eastern Idaho waterways.
McKaughan

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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